General Draft Discussion

[TooLiveBrew]

Jeebus, they're freaking twins. Nice catch, YG

[TheCrew07]

Bah fight the power! Sarcasm Blue is the devil.

[CheezWizHed]

But Ben has the whole Jeff Bennett hat thing going on... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

But otherwise its a blonde and brunette version of the same person...

[battlekow]

John Sickels on the Brewers' draft: "This isn't a spectacular group, but it isn't a

bad one, either."

[LouisEly]

I'm not surprised at all that they went pitching in 4 of first 5 rounds. From what I had read it sounded like this draft was fairly weak for bats, so no sense in reaching for a bat just to get one when there is better value in pitching. And you can always trade pitching for bats.

 

I think this is a good philosophy - bats at the major league level come cheaper than pitching, so I'm all for drafting pitching. Unless you have an everyday player who projects to a >.900 OPS like Fielder or >.800 OPS and plus defense at a premium position like C/SS/3B/CF, I'd take my chances on pitching.

 

In reality you only get 3-4 major leagers out of a draft. So if three of the top 5 make it and one later guy (my sleeper is Mike Walker) they will have done their job.

[Boy Jeenius]

3 or 4? That's a good NFL draft class. Go back and look at the Brewers drafts. Many years we're lucky to get one

[uwisfan]

yeah, 3-4 is a stretch in baseball considering the longetivy & roster sizes. Maybe if 2 of those guys were getting cups of coffee, while the other 1-2 were legit guys that could stick in the bigs.. and even that's a stretch.

[biedergb]

I'm not sure what the average is. But usually about 3-4 MLB players per draft is a very good average. Our record has been decent. I've looked at the drafts since 2001 (from the mlb.com brewers home page). I've listed players who are currently in the bigs. With more recent drafts I've also added those who are at AA/AAA and could become MLB players.

2001 - Hardy, Sarfate, Parra

2002 - Fielder, Eveland

2003 - Weeks, Gwynn

2004 - Gallardo. Prospects = Rogers, Cain, Salome

2005 - Braun, Braddock. Prospects = Gamel, Brantley (CLE), T. Green

2006 - Prospects - Anundsen, Jeffress, C. Gillespie (ARZ)

2007 - LaPorta, Lucroy. Prospects = Gindl.

2008-2010: too early

 

So that's 12 players in the bigs from 7 drafts, with 10 'prospects' who if only 3-4 play some significant time in the bigs, gives us 15-16 in seven years. So I guess 3-4 is a good range. 2-3 should be about average. 0-1 should be poor.

[sfl2hnq17]

thanks bieder i was trying to research that myself and now you made it easier for me. if you look up the other guys that the brewers drafted and didnt sign that ended up going to the bigs, for instance Andrew Bailey.

[LouisEly]

To get technical, you left out Brad Nelson (cup o' coffee), Chris Barnwell (c.o.c), and Chris Saenz (got hurt) in 2001; Callix Crabbe (c.o.c.), Craig Breslow, and Tim Dillard (c.o.c) in 2002; Mitch Stetter, Ty Taubenheim (c.o.c), and Drew Anderson (c.o.c.) in 2003; Periard and Darren Ford as prospects plus a guy they drafted but didn't sign - Kanekoa Texeria - is currently on the Royals from 2004; Jemile Weeks (unsigned), Steve Garrison, Andrew Bailey (unsigned), and Brendan Katin (AAA) in 2005; Mike McClendon (AAA) and Rob Bryson in 2006; and Farris (AAA) and Scarpetta (40-man roster) from 2007.

[biedergb]

LouisEly: valid points. On my review I purposely looked at players who are currently in the bigs now, and most have pitched in more than 20 games, or played in over 50 games, which makes them major leaguers. Prospects are subjective, and I tried to look at those who would profile as starters, as they are more likely to at least be back ups. I didn't include players who didn't sign, as if we didn't sign them, they are not part of the draft.

[sfl2hnq17]

are the brewers close to signing any other of the draft picks by the beginning of july?

[battlekow]

Not related to the Brewers, but this Facebook conversation between #1 overall pick Bryce Harper and #3 overall pick Manny Machado is pretty awesome (slight language).

[Tedaldtada]

Haha, that is interesting. So what, Manny Machado can't find a phone anywhere in the D.R.? Whatever.

 

Anyways, it would be monumentally stupid for either guy to pass up the money that is likely on the table. Injury, hard slotting, etc. You just can't risk losing out on $5-10M.

[battlekow]

I'm pretty sure they're just joking around.

[Tedaldtada]

Yea, I know. I was just saying.

[UeckerPowell]

Jim Callis and John Manuel did a 97 minute podcasttoday where they talked about what each team faces at the signing deadline. Basically Jim Callis said he would be shocked if the Brewers didn't sign Covey. He also mentions that it is possible that Brewers could have already reached an agreement with Covey but the earliest that MLB would let them announce it would be Saturday. He believe that the Brewers only drafted Daniel Gibson as a back up plan to Covey and with Covey likely to sign it is highly unlikely that Gibson signs. He also mentions that the Brewers should give Chad Jones 200K just to keep his baseball rights like the Angels did with Jake Locker.

 

Also Kendall Rogers of yahoo sports heard that Mat Gamel little brother Ben got around 500K from the Yankees.link

[colbyjack]

AJ Cole and Sammy Solis have signed with the Nationals, and I would be surprised if they don't get a deal done with Bryce Harper. Throw in Rick Hague into that mix, and that is a very, very impressive draft haul for the Nats. If you would have told me prior to the draft that they, or any team, would walk away with Harper, Cole, Solis and Hague (not just having the opportunity to select them, but signing them too), I would have said you were nuts.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=2763

[Crash2303]

I have heard that next year's draft is going to be very deep. Is there any chance the Brewers don't sign Covey in order to have two 1st round picks for next year?

[UeckerPowell]

I have heard that next year's draft is going to be very deep. Is there any chance the Brewers don't sign Covey in order to have two 1st round picks for next year?

 

If they do that their pick would be unprotected so it would hurt their negotiation leverage. They would probably end up signing someone with less talent who is willing to sign for slot. I don't see them getting anyone with more talent than Covey so in the end they will sign him.

[logan82]

They would only lose a pick if they sign a type "A" free agent. I seriously doubt they will be signing any type "A" free agents.

[UeckerPowell]

They would only lose a pick if they sign a type "A" free agent. I seriously doubt they will be signing any type "A" free agents.

 

That is not what I meant by unprotected. It means that if they don't sign Covey this year and also fail to sign their pick next year they don't get another one the year after. Teams with unprotected picks seem to pick safe slot guys because they don't want to risk not signing them. Even in a deep draft there is not going to be any safe slot guys with close to Covey's talent level.

[paul253]

Yeah originally I was thinking about that option, but they'll probably end up with someone with a lower ceiling than Covey. And even if they take another HS pitcher with similar upside, they'd lose a year of development. I'd rather just sign Covey.

[logan82]

They would only lose a pick if they sign a type "A" free agent. I seriously doubt they will be signing any type "A" free agents.

 

That is not what I meant by unprotected. It means that if they don't sign Covey this year and also fail to sign their pick next year they don't get another one the year after. Teams with unprotected picks seem to pick safe slot guys because they don't want to risk not signing them. Even in a deep draft there is not going to be any safe slot guys with close to Covey's talent level.

If that really is a concern, which I don' think it is, you use the pick on a college senior.

[battlekow]

If that really is a concern, which I don' think it is, you use the pick on a college senior.

So you're limiting yourself to a small percentage of the draft population--what if there are no college seniors that high on your draft board? You know it's a concern because signability is a concern--look at how much it drives normal draft choices already, with compensation.