So now what?

[WisconsinSportsRule]

I think come the trading deadline, anyone not named Escobar, Braun, Lucroy, Gomez, Gallardo, Axford and Braddock on the MLB roster is open and available for trade.

You can add Fielder to that list. I don't see Mark A trading Fielder this year there maybe a possibility that Mark A allows Melvin to trade Fielder this off season if a deal can not be made between the Brewers and Fielder at that time. Fielder is just way to much of a cash cow for Mark A right now to just let go of even if it does make the team better in the long run. Basically what I am saying is you are setting yourself up for a big let down if you think Fielder is going to be traded by this deadline for a bunch of prospects.

Sadly, I agree. As much as I want Prince gone by the deadline, I just don't think Mark A will pull the trigger on such a deal.

[trwi7]

The only thing I don't agree with is trading Hart at the moment. We have no one who could step into right field and produce like him.

 

But we would be selling at the deadline, which would mean wins and losses are secondary to player development, so it's not really an issue if we get Hart's production or not.

[NievesNoNO]

craigharmann[/b]]I think come the trading deadline, anyone not named Escobar, Braun, Lucroy, Gomez, Gallardo, Axford and Braddock on the MLB roster is open and available for trade.

Agreed. I also would like to see a rotation of: Gallardo, Wolf, Parra, Estrada, Butler, maybe Rogers post All-Star break. I'm willing to give potential a shot over consistency or results. Quite frankly, there hasn't been much consistency or results with Bush, Davis or Narveson so the alternatives can't be much worse at this point.

 

 

 

 

[Ennder]

I think we're passed the point of knee-jerk reactions, right? It's late enough in the season that we can rule out small sample sizes and occasional lapses in judgement. I'm all for mixing it up as shown here to see what happens. Fortune favors the bold.

We aren't anywhere near late enough in the season to rule out small sample sizes. Looking at the past 3 years still tells more about a player than anything he has done this year.

 

Having said that I think there is probably a systemic issue at play given how many BBs the team has given up. Every new pitcher we have seems to increase their BB when they come to the team as well. Jeff Suppan is the only pitcher on the entire brewer team that has a BB/9 under 3.5, that is just crazy. It might be an issue caused by the poor defense, it might be a game planning issue. I don't know.

[thebruce44]

I think come the trading deadline, anyone not named Escobar, Braun, Lucroy, Gomez, Gallardo, Axford and Braddock on the MLB roster is open and available for trade.

You can add Fielder to that list. I don't see Mark A trading Fielder this year there maybe a possibility that Mark A allows Melvin to trade Fielder this off season if a deal can not be made between the Brewers and Fielder at that time. Fielder is just way to much of a cash cow for Mark A right now to just let go of even if it does make the team better in the long run. Basically what I am saying is you are setting yourself up for a big let down if you think Fielder is going to be traded by this deadline for a bunch of prospects.

This is just as much speculation as me saying I think he will be traded. Mark hasn't been in this position before, so how do either of us know what he is going to do? I think you are setting yourself up for just as big a let down if you think Fielder is going to be on this team by the end of the year.

 

[logan82]

I think we're passed the point of knee-jerk reactions, right? It's late enough in the season that we can rule out small sample sizes and occasional lapses in judgement. I'm all for mixing it up as shown here to see what happens. Fortune favors the bold.

We aren't anywhere near late enough in the season to rule out small sample sizes. Looking at the past 3 years still tells more about a player than anything he has done this year.

 

Having said that I think there is probably a systemic issue at play given how many BBs the team has given up. Every new pitcher we have seems to increase their BB when they come to the team as well. Jeff Suppan is the only pitcher on the entire brewer team that has a BB/9 under 3.5, that is just crazy. It might be an issue caused by the poor defense, it might be a game planning issue. I don't know.

It is to early to quit saying small sample but even if we played to our talent we are probably only a little better than a .500 team so we have dug a whole to big for ourselves already. Best case scenario is probably low 80's in wins and that would take some luck.

[naivin]

What I think has been lost in this abomination of a season, and what is really unfortunate is how well this team is hitting and scoring runs. Second in the league in R, AVG, and OPS. If the pitching were even average, or just below average, as opposed to terrible, this season would probably look quite a bit different right now. Unfortunately, it looks like that is a problem for which there is no attainable remedy.

[pebadger]

Do any of the stats sites have a comparison of teams run scoring distribution and the variance in their runs scored? Frankly, I don't think the Brewers offense is all that good. They have the potential to be explosive, but they are not at all consistent. I'd also like to know which teams struggle worse offensively than the Brewers do against the better quality pitchers.

 

I know all the statistical justifications for characterizing baseball as more of an individual sport than a team sport, but I firmly beleive that there are as yet unquantifiable synergies that derive from the better integrated collections of individuals that we call a "team". I don't think this year's Brewers have any of that. Wil be intersting to see if anythingn like that develops at all, or if the team drifts farther into a "Royals hoping to be Yankes or anything else" sort of mojo. I'm sort of getting that sense already.

 

Now what? The World Cup starts in a week, and by the time it ends maybe things will have changed enough that I can get excited about watching the Brewers again. If not, it's not that long a wait until the fall seasons start cranking up.

[craigharmann]

What I think has been lost in this abomination of a season, and what is really unfortunate is how well this team is hitting and scoring runs.

That's all good and well, but the problem is not that you can score 13 runs, it's that you allow the other team to score 14.

[Diskono]

Do any of the stats sites have a comparison of teams run scoring distribution and the variance in their runs scored? Frankly, I don't think the Brewers offense is all that good. They have the potential to be explosive, but they are not at all consistent. I'd also like to know which teams struggle worse offensively than the Brewers do against the better quality pitchers.

I can't find it right now, but I remember reading some article awhile ago explaining how inconsistent teams will actually tend to win more games over a season. Hopefully somebody will know what I'm talking about, it was pretty interesting.

[monty57]

They have the potential to be explosive, but they are not at all consistent.

 

In just over one out of every five games, they either get shut out (6 times) or score 10+ runs (6 times). While they're scoring 4.90 runs/game this season, in their last 25 games (since the 17 run win agasint Arizona) they're scoring 3.92 runs/game. They're 8-17 in that stretch. Their pitching is terrible, but their offense hsan't been stellar lately either.

 

I try to be positive, but this team is making it difficult.

 

So What Now?

 

If we aren't looking to the future now, then we never will be. I've heard Macha several times mention this "pow-wow" with Melvin and Ash to line up the pitchers, and Macha really seems to be out of the loop as to what's going on. I'd like to think there are going to be some major changes, but I'm not sure what. I don't see them cutting any pitchers other than maybe Suppan (whose ERA is now near 8 after tonight's game). Yo & Wolf will be in the rotation, and I'm beginning to think the Parra-for-Bush swap may have occurred after a phone call from Melvin to Macha, which may mean Bush is going to be in the pen and Parra's going to get his chance to sink or swim. Loe's been a breath of fresh air, but I don't see them putting him in the rotation over Capuano or Narveson.

 

I'd guess not much will happen that will make anyone too excited. Maybe in a month or so we'll decide we're sellers and we'll see some trades, but until then, it's probably what-you-see-is-what-you-get.

[rluzinski]

I know all the statistical justifications for characterizing baseball as more of an individual sport than a team sport, but I firmly beleive that there are as yet unquantifiable synergies that derive from the better integrated collections of individuals that we call a "team".

If you believe it to be true, then you should be able to define what those qualities are that led you to that conclusion. And if you can define the qualities, they can be objectively tested.

The batting order does matter though, so it's not like there is no statistical justification for believing that team makeup doesn't matter.

 

As for the consistency of an offense, it's a criticism that seems to be levied on many teams' offenses but I don't think there's much to it, personally. Power teams will have a slightly higher run distribution but in terms of WP, I'm not sure it has much of an effect. The Brewers had a couple of blowouts early, so I think that sticks into people's minds, but every team has them.

[craigharmann]

So What Now?

 

I've heard Macha several times mention this "pow-wow" with Melvin and Ash to line up the pitchers, and Macha really seems to be out of the loop as to what's going on. I'd like to think there are going to be some major changes, but I'm not sure what. I don't see them cutting any pitchers other than maybe Suppan (whose ERA is now near 8 after tonight's game). Yo & Wolf will be in the rotation, and I'm beginning to think the Parra-for-Bush swap may have occurred after a phone call from Melvin to Macha, which may mean Bush is going to be in the pen and Parra's going to get his chance to sink or swim. Loe's been a breath of fresh air, but I don't see them putting him in the rotation over Capuano or Narveson.

This whole "pow-wow" thing is just silly. You can meet and discuss and meet and discuss, but the simple fact remains, this team just isn't executing. They took Soup out of the rotation, because he wasn't performing, yet continue to trot him out there, even though he still isn't performing. I'm very thankful that I'm not actually watching this team up close, just frustrated from a distance. And if I'm frustrated from a distance, I can believe what it would be for those of you experiencing it first-hand.

[naivin]

What I think has been lost in this abomination of a season, and what is really unfortunate is how well this team is hitting and scoring runs.

That's all good and well, but the problem is not that you can score 13 runs, it's that you allow the other team to score 14.

Which is why I said, "If the pitching were even average, or just below average, as opposed to

terrible, this season would probably look quite a bit different right

now." I'm pretty sure everyone knows what the problem is.

[monty57]

I'm pretty sure everyone knows what the problem is.

 

I'm beginning to believe that should be what the problem "was." The pitching has been bad all season, but the bad play has spread like a virus. During the first 30 games, the Brewers were scoring 5.77 runs/game. During the last 25, they're scoring 3.92. There's probably some selective statistics going on, as I cut it off at the 17-3 win at Arizona, but still, the offense is scoring almost 2 less runs / game over the past month, so it's not just the pitching anymore.

 

In any field, if you have a group of people who have been good at their job, and someone is brought in to oversee them and suddenly they all start performing at a lower level, the blame gets directed at the person managing them. When other people are brought in who have traditionally been good and they perform worse than they ever have, you really have to start thinking that the manager has some culpability. I don't care if it's a sales manager, shop foreman, CEO or baseball manager, when the team is performing below its talent level for an extended period, the manager has to go.

 

edit: for the record, the NL average is 4.38 runs/game

[pebadger]

I know all the statistical justifications for characterizing baseball as more of an individual sport than a team sport, but I firmly beleive that there are as yet unquantifiable synergies that derive from the better integrated collections of individuals that we call a "team".

If you believe it to be true, then you should be able to define what those qualities are that led you to that conclusion. And if you can define the qualities, they can be objectively tested.

Maybe one day someone with the time, data and mathematical insight will be able to write it down on paper. That said, because an idea has not yet been put in a properly testable form does not mean that it is not so (though of course it also means that everyone is free to dispute the efficacy of the idea). Much of what we now see to be oh-so-simple in our world was made so only through the insight of people we now recognize to be of the genius catagory. Even with as much as we know, both in terms of investigative technique and the ultimate conclusions that can be derived from investigation, we don't know everything. I think there is a danger that we may sometimes become too complacent with the advances that we have made and that we may allow the huge amount of data we do have in front of us to blind us to the fact that perhaps we are missing more.

[monty57]

I personally don't know that psychology can be measured statistically, otherwise psychiatrists would use more stastics. To me, it doesn't seem like an exact science, but it's out of my area of expertise. I guess if every manager and player would undergo thorough psycological examination and was then correctly (with a defined margin for error) classified into Type A, Type B, etc. Then, those findings were dispersed to a statistician, said statistician could run the numbers to figure out what classifications of players/coaches have generated the most wins and calculate if there is any determinable pattern.

 

First, I don't see this happening. More importantly, psychological exams are far from exact and can't be determined with a defined margin for error, so it will have to be denoted as "unquantifiable," which will either drive a stat-minded person insane or cause them to believe it doesn't exist.

[Invader3K]

There's rumors floating around on the JSOnline and CBS Sports Brewers boards that Suppan will be given his release on Monday, and Hoffman may not be far behind. We'll see, I guess.

[craigharmann]

Yeah, but now with Coffey possibly being on the DL, pitching is going to be needed. And we all know that Soup can pitch.....not well, but he can pitch.

[adambr2]

The only thing that should be on the agenda for Tuesday's meeting, since firing a manager and GM who have had the game of baseball pass them by is apparently not an option, should be, "What prospect(s) can we get for Player X?"

[brewmann04]

It should be an Intresting Meeting but what are they going to do in reality. Besides Yo there is no pitcher on this staff that any better than a #4 or maybe a#3. You can blame Melvin for not getting a quality Fa pitcher but that kinda overblown.What Fa are really going to come here and the only way is to overpay for marginal Pitchers. The bigger concern is the ability to establish minor league starters which has been the Brewers Major Achiles Heel.I think they need to focus on the Scouting Dept and try to figure out this Problem.Melvin major flaw is his inability to acess quality pitching and that must be addressed.

[hawing]

My guess is that Tuesday's pow-wow will probably have a more short-term focus.

[monty57]

From Macha's tidbits, it's about lining up the starting rotation. Probably just determining who of Parra, Narveson, Bush, Loe, Capuano, etc get to fill out the rotation behind Yo & Wolf for the foreseeable future. It would be nice to get some exciting news, but I doubt it.

[brewmann04]

I think we needs to let Parra take the ball every 5 days for the rest of the year and then make a decision on him. Low i think will be tried as a setup man with his nasty stuff.

[BadgerFan]

As someone stated earlier in this thread, it's really hard to find anything to look forward to with respect to this team. The bottom line is we have zero pitching outside of Gallardo and unfortunately there is no way to rectify that situation. We have nothing in the minors that resembles solid major league pitching and there is no way to put together three fifths of a rotation through free agency.

 

Trading Fielder is a crapshoot. If the Sabathia trade taught me anything it's that there is certainly no guarantee with "can't miss" prospects (like Matt LaPorta). I don't think we've ever traded anyone (in the last 15 years) for a prospect the ended up being an above average player. Fielder is a great player having an off year...but good power hitting first baseman are pretty common so I don't think anyone is going to give us a top-notch pitching prospect for him.

 

The worst thing about the Brewers situation is that the people on this board looking for reasons to watch this team are the die-hard fans. If you're a die-hard fan that is looking for any reason to get excited about Brewers baseball, what is the casual fan thinking? I fear that this season's poor results (and lack of player development) is going to really hurt the franchise the next few years.