The Dillema of "selling high"....

[HiAndTight]

I wanted to get a couple of opinions on this. I think one of the keys for the Brewers to sorta regroup and get back to the point where they can honestly expect to compete they're going to need to make a couple of shrewd moves in the near future, something that quite frankly I don't believe has been Melvin's strong point in the recent past. I respect him as a GM, but I think he's failed a times with his timing in terms of trading players.

 

 

Now the dilemma is that it's obviously very difficult to trade a player when they're playing well. When Corey Hart is hitting HR's every day, obviously helping us win games, nobody wants to trade him.

When Casey McGehee is among the league leaders in BA, driving in more runs than anyone in the league, nobody wants to trade him.

 

There are a couple other players I'd also throw into this group. Carlos Villanueva. You won't find a bigger Villy fan than me, and I think he has 4 pitches that make him a better starter than a reliever. I believe we pulled the plug on him as a starter far too quickly as he had some success in that role. However we're coming up on the point where he's going to start making more money, and his value is going to be very high. I could see a number of teams looking for BP help being very high on CV come this trading deadline.

 

Another guy I could see fitting this bill are Todd Coffey, a guy I really love, but who again, is going to start costing more, and we have young relievers who can replace him.

 

Jim Edmonds is another guy who has very little value to us in the long haul, but could really help a team off the bench...though obviously he's on a completely different level than the others.

 

 

So I guess my question is two fold.

 

1-At what point do you decide you're going to "sell high" on a guy? Again, it's obviously very difficult, but does anyone here believe that Casey McGehee will continue to perform at this level or even close to it?

 

You're obviously dealing with a lot of potential fall out from an organization if you go ahead and trade a couple of guys such as McGehee, CV, Hart, and then Prince as he's obviously going to be on the market in the near future, but shouldn't what's best for the organization out weigh that?

 

2-What players on this current roster WOULD you sell high on right now, and what would you expect in return for them?

 

Obviously I think moving Casey McGehee is a move that needs to be made. The Twins seem to be a ideal fit with their predominant Left Handed Lineup. Kyle Gibson would be a guy I would LOVE to grab. Perhaps McGehee+Carlos Villanueva for Gibson and maybe Ramos would be a great deal for us?

 

In fact, if you were to expand that even further and kinda throw three of these guys in and make it McGehee+Hart+Villanueva+Cash(to pay for Hart's and Villy's salary) for Gibson+Ramos+Glenn Perkins, a guy who's fallen out of favor in Minnesota, but who still has good upside and may simply need a change of scenery. Plus, the Twins seem to be resigned to the fact that Ramos will be gone. So while they're usually loathe to trade prospects, it's really only Gibson to try and put a VERY good team over the top.

 

 

Thoughts?

[paul253]

I wouldn't trade Mcgehee, but I'd trade CV and Hart. The reason why is that for one, Hart is a lot more expensive than McGehee and if you want him back you're going to have to give him a contract. If he stays hot he'll probably ask for close to $8 million or so. Also though, Hart and CV are a lot less consistent than McGehee is. I'd trust McGehee to keep playing like he is more than I would the other two.

[HiAndTight]

I wouldn't trade Mcgehee, but I'd trade CV and Hart. The reason why is that for one, Hart is a lot more expensive than McGehee and if you want him back you're going to have to give him a contract. If he stays hot he'll probably ask for close to $8 million or so. Also though, Hart and CV are a lot less consistent than McGehee is. I'd trust McGehee to keep playing like he is more than I would the other two.

Sadly I don't see any of them getting traded. Again, when a player is playing well a team obviously doesn't want to trade him and most fans are too short sighted to see that that's the best time to trade them.

 

As for McGehee, you're absolutely right about the money issue, for the Brewers, that's a big one, and they're the type of team that needs those type of players.

 

However the fact that he is so cheap is why I believe you could expect a substantial return for him from a team that is in desperate need of a 3B and a RH'ed hitter.

 

 

But lets just say for the sake of argument the trade I suggested was one the Twins would agree to.

 

McGehee+Hart+Villanueva for Kyle Gibson, Wilson Ramos and Glenn Perkins and we pay the difference in salaries. Would you really not pull the trigger on that?

 

Gibson's a high ceiling arm already in AA striking out a good number of batters.

http://www.baseball-refer...ayer.cgi?id=gibson002kyl

 

Ramos is a guy struggling mightily in AAA after a brief big league stint, AND obviously AAA catchers in Minnesota don't have a whole lot of hope of becoming "the guy" up there.

 

And Glenn Perkins is a guy who throws in the low 90's and has pretty solid stuff. Went 12-4 with a 4.41 ERA in 08 for the Twins, but has struggled since. A change of scenery may be what he needs.

 

 

I know the knee jerk reaction to this is that the Twins wouldn't trade young prospects, but that's a really good team this year, and two good RH'ed bats, plus a guy striking out 12.2 per 9 would really cement that team. And if it didn't cost them any money?

 

 

Couple that with whatever you may get in return for Prince Fielder, you could conceivably get two high ceiling young arms, a high ceiling young catcher, a reclamation project in Perkins and then whatever else you would get for Prince, at last one more impact prospect.

 

That could turn this whole rebuild process around pretty damn quickly.

[crewcrazy]

Hart's hitting has gotten to the point where his value is probably never going to be higher, and despite the good homestand, the chances of making the playoffs at this point are incredibly slim -- the Reds had the best record in the NL heading into Sunday. If he's still hitting this well in a few weeks, I think the Brewers would be crazy to not consider trading him, especially if a team like the Padres is willing to give up a pitcher to improve their offense.

[paul253]

I think the Brewers would be fools not to trade Hart while his value is up. Especially the way Lorenzo Cain is playing down in Huntsville. I think Cain should be promoted to give him some AB's against more advanced pitching. It took Lucroy awhile to adjust so I'm assuming the same can be expected with Cain.

 

Kyle Gibson is a guy I like, but I don't know why Minnesota would trade him. They took a big chance drafting him and it's really paying off. I don't see why they'd give him up so quickly. Perkins is really struggling in AAA this year. I'm not sure I'd want to take a chance on him right now, especially for an every day major league player.

 

As far as McGehee goes though, I am still hoping they don't trade him. He is a big part of the future, and we'll need him once Fielder is traded. Plus who is going to replace him? Gamel hasn't had any major league success yet. I wouldn't want to just hand him the third base job with no other real options.

[TooLiveBrew]

With McGehee, I think I want the Brewers to gamble on him being able to sustain his offensive production through at least 2011. He'll be making the minimum until 2012, his first year of arbitration eligibility, and as has been noted he'd be important to keep in the fold as a cheap option until at least then.

[LouisEly]

"Selling high" is mostly dependent on having ML-ready replacements in the minors. If you don't have an internal replacement it makes "selling high" a real gamble. If you don't have a ML-ready prospect it raises red flags as to why you are trading someone; having ML-ready prospects can do the opposite in that it can mask red flags that you may have about a player.

 

That's the problem with Hart - while Cain has gotten off to a good start, I'm not quite sure he's ready to make the jump. I'd like to see Cain sustain success for a whole season before being comfortable jumping him from AA. No one else really jumps out as being "ready" as the org is thin on OF prospects, particularly with Schafer and Katin on the DL. Hart seems to be at his "high" point, however who would we replace him with?

 

McGehee is a different story though because of Gamel. However with Gamel recently off the DL and finding his swing in the minors I think he'll need another month before he's really back, but it makes a trade of McGehee more feasible down the line. With Taylor Green in AA it also makes young, cheap 3B an area of depth for the Brewers.

 

If there is anyone that I would definitely move it would be Villanueva. I don't think they can get much for him, but I think he is at his high point.

[trwi7]

There are a few ways you could convince a team that the player they're getting is for real and get a good return for him. I can think of three for Hart.

 

Edmonds could replace Hart. Not really MLB ready since he's a 40 year old veteran, but you could sell it as Edmonds takes over for the rest of the year and Cain can replace Edmonds in 2011.

 

We're going into rebuilding mode and since Hart is getting close to free agency and getting more expensive, he probably won't be around for our next winning team.

 

You could also go with we need to open up money for re-signing Fielder and we need to cut some money. We have a solid replacement in Edmonds this year and we have Cain for 2011.

 

Even if those are lies, there's no rules that say you have to say the truth when discussing trades and what your future plans are as a team. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Obviously that would be more difficult with McGehee as the only one that would work is we have a replacement in Gamel since he's still cheap and years away from free agency. Though that would make him that much more appealing.

 

And for the record, I would absolutely do that deal proposed in the opening post. Not sure the Twins give up both Gibson and Ramos, but it's not like they're getting crap in return. I don't know. Seems pretty close to me.

[HiAndTight]

Kyle Gibson is a guy I like, but I don't know why Minnesota would trade him. They took a big chance drafting him and it's really paying off. I don't see why they'd give him up so quickly. Perkins is really struggling in AAA this year. I'm not sure I'd want to take a chance on him right now, especially for an every day major league player.

 

As far as McGehee goes though, I am still hoping they don't trade him. He is a big part of the future, and we'll need him once Fielder is traded. Plus who is going to replace him? Gamel hasn't had any major league success yet. I wouldn't want to just hand him the third base job with no other real options.

Why would the Twins give up Gibson? Simple, they've got a legitimate shot to win a World Series this year.

 

They've got very few issues with that team. However here are a couple.

 

1-3B where they start Nick Punto, he of the .558 OPS this year.

2-RH'ed hitters. They've got Cuddyer(.773 OPS), Delmon Yount(.752 OPS), and JJ Hardy(.664 OPS). So Corey Hart(.916 OPS) and Casey McGehee's(.896) at two positions of relative need would help them out a great deal.

3-Their BP. Of their top 5 relievers(IP) now that Nathan is out, the best K per 9 is 7.6. I'm guessing a guy like Villanueva who is currently striking out 12.2 per 9, and for his career is 7.9.

As a reliever his career line is 9.2 K's per 9 IP, and an 83 OPS+ against.

 

 

So...in short, the reason they give up Kyle Gibson is because they get 3 players who help them out a LOT this year, and they don't add any payroll(as I suggested we'd pay the difference of Hart's salary as an extra incentive to pry Gibson from them).

 

Why would we give up Matt LaPorta after we took a chance on him and he really started to pan out, or Michael Brantley who looked fantastic for us, or Rob Bryson who was striking out nearly 12 per 9 for us as a 20 year old in West Virgina? Because we were taking a chance to win a World Series.

 

 

As for Glenn Perkins, again, it goes to the whole buy low, sell high concept. You don't think we could get one guy because he's pitching so well, and you don't want another guy because he's pitching poorly. Well, at some point you have to try and pick a guy up and hope that he can straighten it out with you, especially a guy who's got talent such as Glenn Perkins. I don't know why we wouldn't want him if he's essentially just a throw in at this point.

 

 

Finally, as for Mat Gamel, actually he does have some success at 3B. He put up a line of .274/..340/.524 and a .864 OPS in 27 starts at 3rd base last year. He was jerked around more than any top prospect I've seen in some time, and despite that his overall .760 OPS is definitely respectable for a guy in his first big league action.

 

Beyond that, just watching the guy should inspire a great deal of confidence. He clearly needs to improve in some area's, but he had exceptional discipline, too good perhaps, he has a nearly perfect left handed swing, he rakes vs LH'ed hitters....and he looked very good at 3B. Of course these were all in small samplings, but my point is to suggest he hasn't had "any" major league success yet is incorrect.

 

Not to mention, we're the Brewers. "He hasn't proven it yet at the major league level" isn't an argument against a guy. You make an evaluation and you come up with an opinion. He's either good enough to play, or he isn't. I think Gamel clearly is. The problem is some seem to have expected Ryan Braun 2.0, and that just wasn't realistic.

[HiAndTight]

There are a few ways you could convince a team that the player they're getting is for real and get a good return for him. I can think of three for Hart.

 

Edmonds could replace Hart. Not really MLB ready since he's a 40 year old veteran, but you could sell it as Edmonds takes over for the rest of the year and Cain can replace Edmonds in 2011.

 

We're going into rebuilding mode and since Hart is getting close to free agency and getting more expensive, he probably won't be around for our next winning team.

 

You could also go with we need to open up money for re-signing Fielder and we need to cut some money. We have a solid replacement in Edmonds this year and we have Cain for 2011.

 

Even if those are lies, there's no rules that say you have to say the truth when discussing trades and what your future plans are as a team. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Obviously that would be more difficult with McGehee as the only one that would work is we have a replacement in Gamel since he's still cheap and years away from free agency. Though that would make him that much more appealing.

 

And for the record, I would absolutely do that deal proposed in the opening post. Not sure the Twins give up both Gibson and Ramos, but it's not like they're getting crap in return. I don't know. Seems pretty close to me.

1st of all, I just wish you could tell your fan base the truth. And the "truth" is that we're simply not good enough right now to win a World Series. Billy Beane had a great line, he said "you're either very special, or you're trying to become very special, but being somewhere in between isn't a very good place to be". Well guess what? We're somewhere in between, and if we want to become "special", we need to acquire a couple of very good younger players and trade some of the player son our team who are performing well now because the chances are they're not going to continue to perform at such a high level.

 

 

 

As for the Twins trade....If I had to guess I'd say they probably don't make it, though I'd have said they wouldn't push their payroll to 97 million coming into the year and do a lot of the things they've done.

 

 

I think the fact that they're trying to open Target Field up with a bang just might motivate them to make such a trade, especially when you consider the players.

 

Ramos is blocked, and isn't a superstar by any means.

Gibson's a great looking young arm, but they're getting two guys with .900 OPS's who are both RH'ed bats in a predominate LH'ed lineup, AND a premier reliever this year. And we'd send them money.

 

If nothing else, it'd get them thinking loooong and hard about it.

[paul253]

Why would we give up Matt LaPorta after we took a chance on him and

he really started to pan out, or Michael Brantley who looked fantastic

for us, or Rob Bryson who was striking out nearly 12 per 9 for us as a

20 year old in West Virgina? Because we were taking a chance to win a

World Series.

 

That's totally different. The Brewers got one of the best pitchers in all of baseball in return for those three. They also gave up mostly position players, which is a lot easier to deal with.

 

As far as Perkins goes, it's not that he's pitching poorly. Its that he's pitching terribly...in Triple A. An ERA of almost 9. 56 hits allowed in under 40 innings. A whip of 1.83. In his best year he had an era of almost 4.5. What exactly would we do with him? It's not like he is some 22 year old kid who is struggling in his first go at AAA. He's 27 and getting rocked. We can't even give Manny Parra a shot in the rotation without injuries. If I am going to trade two major league every day players, one who is likely to be an all-star this year, I don't want Perkins as part of the deal. Perkins is someone, if I wanted him, that I'd trade a low minor leaguer for, someone like Del Howell or Caleb Thielbar or something.

 

Player

W

L

ERA

G

GS

CG

SHO

SV

IP

H

R

ER

HR

HB

BB

SO

WHIP

HLD

GF

Glen Perkins

0

6

8.47

9

9

0

0

0

39.1

56

45

37

7

3

16

38

1.83

0

0

[TooLiveBrew]

He was jerked around more than any top prospect I've seen in some time, and despite that his overall .760 OPS is definitely respectable for a guy in his first big league action

 

Not to mention that it was basically the league average for third basemen

[pete]

Ugh, the myth of being "jerked around." McGehee OPSing around .880 or if you're elitist a wOBA of .380 and playing above average defense. I believe Mat can play 3B, but its not a certainty.

[trwi7]

Ugh, the myth of being "jerked around." McGehee OPSing around .880 or if you're elitist a wOBA of .380 and playing above average defense. I believe Mat can play 3B, but its not a certainty.

It wasn't a myth. McGehee was hitting about as well as any of us would (.376 OPS at the time of Gamel's callup.) After Gamel got called up he pinch hit 19 times, started at 3B 22 times, didn't play 8 times and started at DH 5 times. So half the time he either didn't play or got one at bat and no reps in the field. McGehee was also playing 2B at one point and doing a fairly decent job at it. Hall sucked and Counsell was decent, but should've been a bench player and Gamel still couldn't make the starting lineup. He was absolutely jerked around. And since McGehee could play 2B it made the Lopez trade completely unnecessary.

 

Gamel starts at 3B

McGehee starts at 2B

 

Counsell and Hall fill in at both spots one or two times a week. It took them a little over two months to finally send Gamel back to the minors instead of sitting him on the bench most of the time.

 

[PilprinBuddha]

The proposed Twins trade does not meet any of their needs.

The Twins need Bullpen or Starting pitching help only. They don't need Hart's bat. They have too many OF's already. Mcghee would help offensively but defensively Punto is a stud. I just don't see a match there.

Would I trade Hart? Yes.

I'd also DFA Suppan today.

[HiAndTight]

Why would we give up Matt LaPorta after we took a chance on him and he really started to pan out, or Michael Brantley who looked fantastic for us, or Rob Bryson who was striking out nearly 12 per 9 for us as a 20 year old in West Virgina? Because we were taking a chance to win a World Series.

 

That's totally different. The Brewers got one of the best pitchers in all of baseball in return for those three. They also gave up mostly position players, which is a lot easier to deal with.

 

As far as Perkins goes, it's not that he's pitching poorly. Its that he's pitching terribly...in Triple A. An ERA of almost 9. 56 hits allowed in under 40 innings. A whip of 1.83. In his best year he had an era of almost 4.5. What exactly would we do with him? It's not like he is some 22 year old kid who is struggling in his first go at AAA. He's 27 and getting rocked. We can't even give Manny Parra a shot in the rotation without injuries. If I am going to trade two major league every day players, one who is likely to be an all-star this year, I don't want Perkins as part of the deal. Perkins is someone, if I wanted him, that I'd trade a low minor leaguer for, someone like Del Howell or Caleb Thielbar or something.

 

Player

W

L

ERA

G

GS

CG

SHO

SV

IP

H

R

ER

HR

HB

BB

SO

WHIP

HLD

GF

Glen Perkins

0

6

8.47

9

9

0

0

0

39.1

56

45

37

7

3

16

38

1.83

0

0

 

We're getting too hung up on Glenn Perkins. He's the Zach Jackson of this trade, except for Perkins actually has big league success, and a better arm. The whole point that he's struggling is why we'd be getting him. If he was pitching as he has before for the Twins, they'd never trade him.

 

He's a throw in to Gibson and Ramos, nothing more. I have to say, it's getting hard to follow this. First we're not giving up enough to get Gibson, then we're giving up two much by giving up two starting position players.

 

I haven't got a clue if the Twins OR the Brewers would do this, but I do think the overall value is fairly close.

 

 

And for the record, I wouldn't give up Del Howell for Glenn Perkins. It's not that I think so highly of Perkins, he simply represents a fliar here, nothing more, nothing less, and he is by far the least significant part of this rhetorical deal.

[HiAndTight]

The proposed Twins trade does not meet any of their needs.

The Twins need Bullpen or Starting pitching help only. They don't need Hart's bat. They have too many OF's already. Mcghee would help offensively but defensively Punto is a stud. I just don't see a match there.

Would I trade Hart? Yes.

I'd also DFA Suppan today.

It doesn't meet any of their needs? Of course it does.

 

It meets their biggest needs. They're a HEAVY LH'ed lineup, and they're getting almost no production at 3rd base, it gives them two RH'ed bats with .900 OPS to replace very little RH'ed production AND a very good big league reliever.

 

 

It covers 3 of their top 4 needs. It doesn't give them an elite starting pitcher. Of course there isn't a team in baseball that doesn't have that as it's #1 need.

 

As for the "Gamel getting jerked around thing being a myth", I agree with Trwi, but you could even take that a lot further. Gamel got jerked around like no elite prospect we've had in the Doug Melvin era and it's baffling. I'm a pretty ardent defender of the FO as I do agree with most of their moves and think we're in good hands, but I don't see how you possibly make an argument that we didn't ruin Gamel's big league debut and jerk him around.

[logan82]

It took them a little over two months to finally send Gamel back to the minors instead of sitting him on the bench most of the time.

 

67 days to be exact. Now Gamel has one full year of service time.

[HiAndTight]

It took them a little over two months to finally send Gamel back to the minors instead of sitting him on the bench most of the time.

 

67 days to be exact. Now Gamel has one full year of service time.

I'm different here from most as I tend to give the Brewers FO most leniency on moves as there is a lot more going on than we understand. I tend to give them the benefit of the doubt. A kid like LuCroy, I'm actually fine with how they're handling him. With catchers, I'm fine with working them in slowly. The fact that we might actually be starting our future catcher right now(and a helluva a catcher if he can block the ball better than Gina Davis in a League of their own, actually Gina, not the Women she was portraying) also muddies the situation.

 

But with Gamel, I simply don't understand what the hell they were thinking. Gamel's up there in my mind with the Brauns, Princes, Weeks, and Gallardos in terms of what type of priority they should be given as prospects coming up. I don't expect him to be as good as any of those, but I expect him to be very, very good.

 

I'm just stunned at how he's seemingly dropped exponentially in value within this organization. There almost has to be some maturity issues, or SOMETHING else going on here, because he has the prototypical left handed swing, and I think profiles as a incredible #2 hitter, and could be a average #3 hitter. I think .300 for his career is realistic and 25-ish HR's is also within reach, not to mention he has great plate discipline, almost too good at times as he takes too many borderline calls to get those reverse K's last year. But he'll right that with regular AB's in my opinion.

 

Personally I think he should be one of the guys we're looking at as a cornerstone of the Milwaukee Brewers moving forward and he almost seems as though he's a forgotten man.