Are we primed for a rally?

[monty57]

In looking at the players on this team, I find it hard to believe that we are really a 64-98 team, which is the level we've been playing at so far this year. As we've seen the past few seasons, a baseball season is a long one with lots of high and lows. We've had a big "low" to start the season, and I have a feeling we're ready to start an upswing. I don't have a lot to base this on, but off the top of my head here are a few positives I see:

 

-Wolf had a good outing last night, hitting 91-92 on the radar gun when necessary and pitching seven shutout innings. He said in an interview after his "I Stink" comment, that he was getting his mechanics back on track and was nearly ready to put it all together. If we can get a starter that can (on a semi-regular basis) put together 7-8 inning outings, it will really help by (A) winning games and (B) saving our bullpen

 

-Davis has been diagnosed. His pitching so far this season has likely been adversely affected by his weakened heart. For the short term, we have Parra/Estrada who are pitching better than the injured Davis had been pitching. Hopefully later in the season Davis will be back pitching like he has been the past few seasons. Due to the diagnosis, I can't hold anything against Davis, but we should have a better starting rotation now.

 

-Our bullpen has been strengthened by the additions of the AAA guys. We also have flexibility to call people up/send people down when the bullpen has been overworked. We should also get the "upper-90's fastball" version of Hawkins back after 15 days of resting of his arm.

 

-We lose Loe and Capuano if they are not on the MLB roster soon. I could see us finally cutting ties with Suppan and possibly Vargas in order to hold on to Capuano and Loe, which could upgrade two pitching spots. Both have pitched well in the minors, with Capuano really impressing. One of these two could possibly even push Bush out of the rotation.

 

-Our offense has been strong in large part without Fielder ever getting "hot." He's due to break out soon. Really, McGehee, Hart and possibly Gomez are the only ones who are really outperforming pre-season expectations, so as good as the offense has been, it really could be even better.

 

-Hoffman is done with his pow-wow with Peterson, and in his first outing threw a 1-2-3 inning in 9 pitches. If he's "fixed" it will close a bleeding hole that cost us around five wins this season so far.

 

We've dug ourselves into a big hole this year, and I'm not espousing that we are going to pull a Colorado Rockies and win the division, but I'm predicting that we'll start playing a lot better, and things will be a lot more positive on this board in 2-3 weeks then they are right now.

[Thurston Fluff]

Great to see optimism Monty57. I think all the reasons you mentioned are valid. I also think we could have stayed status quo and it would have straightened out. It just isn't as bad a team as the record/play indicated. I think having Houston in helps as well. Get a little confidence going in the staff and maybe it self perpetuates into something bigger.

[TooLiveBrew]

Excellent post, monty, and I think you've got a good shot at being right. The Brewers don't really play anyone all that impressive aside from the Cards until their next interleague series against TEX. It's just too bad the hole dug is so deep.

[MessiahRp]

This is definitely a better team than 64 wins but how much better remains to be seen. Braun has played to form, McGehee has been very good his sophmore year here and even Corey Hart is playing above expectations after the Spring he had.. but practically every other position has played worse than last year. (Well minus Catcher because anything > Kendall)

 

Personally I think we would be fools not to get Capuano in the rotation immediately and there is no reason to keep Suppan or Vargas at this point when it could cost us a hot Cappy or even a slight upgrade in Loe. If you play Suppan because of money even when he's consistently getting shelled it means you don't want to win. At some point you cut your losses and try to win.

 

Rp

[Invader3K]

All pretty good points, monty. While I don't feel there's much of a realistic chance to make the playoffs at this point, a winning season isn't entirely out of the question yet. Hopefully the team has put the worst behind itself and can play good baseball for the rest of the season, so the fans keep coming out to Miller Park.

[JohnBriggs12]

Your scenario to keep Loe and Capuano has some flaws.

 

They are at 13 pitchers now with 3 on the DL. That's 16 total. Cutting Suppan and Vargas gets them down to 14 and frees up spots on the 40 man. But with those two gone, they should be able to get back to the normal level of 12 pitchers once Edmonds comes off the DL. So even without Loe and Capuano, that's 2 more than they need assuming Riske, Davis, and Hawkins all return to the active roster at some point. Sure they could return both Estrada and Braddock to AAA, but what if they keep pitching well?

[MJLiverock]

Optimism is great and all but I don't buy into the Davis was struggling because of his heart. Pericarditis is usually an acute disease meaning it doesn't linger around for weeks, when it hits you feel it immediately. http://my.clevelandclinic.../other/pericarditis.aspx

 

Guys don't just play through chest pains for a month and a half.

 

This would be like saying Player X sprained his ankle on May 1st so that excuses his poor play in the month leading up to it because his ankle hurt.

 

Sort of like the Hart excuse that his appendicitis, another condition that doesn't linger around for weeks but instead hits you like a ton of bricks immediately, was the cause for his slide before going in for surgery.

[Invader3K]

If he continues to struggle, Bush could be another candidate for a DFA. I hate to say it because I actually like him, but he just hasn't been the same since he got hit with that line drive.

[Ennder]

This roster should probably be a .500 team so it won't surprise me.

 

Doug Davis didn't struggle, he gave up a bunch of extra singles which if you watched the games were mostly ground balls that found holes. Now Dave Bush is actually struggling with most of his peripherals being significantly worse than his 3 year average. If you want to worry about a pitcher in the rotation he is the one you should be looking at, not Doug Davis.

[FVBrewerFan]

Funny. I'm a glass half empty guy when it comes to the Brewers this year, but I was going to submit a similar post. I have not looked at the standings for probably 3 weeks, I just didn't want to know. So imagine my surprise when I finally had the courage to look this morning and the Brewers were only 7.5 behind! I was really expecting it to be 12 games for some reason, even knowing the Cards have been struggling.

 

Do I think this team will end up competing for a playof spot? No, I do not. But I do think there are signs of optimism. I can see the bullpen transitioning from the greatest weakness to possibly the greatest strength. Addition of Ax Man and Braddock, if Hawkins can return with full arm strength, plus Riske could help out at some point. I think Capuano could help stabilize the rotation- and what a pleasant surprise that would be.

 

On offense, I don't think anyone is performing at a level they can't maintain all year, with the exception of McGehee. Hart is capable of continuing the year he's having. So is Gomez, although his avg may take a bit of a dip. Other than that, everyone else has the ability to raise their OPS. Not saying they all will, but it's reasonable to assume some will.

 

The way I see it, it puts the formula of success for this team back into play. Most nights they'll score enough runs to win. Just have the starter give you 6-7 innings and the bullpen can close out most games. They have blown what 7 saves? Take back 5 of those and they're over .500. Problem is, I think Hoffman will continue on this roller coaster if he keeps getting 2nd chances as closer. Let Ax or Braddock close games and I would feelmuch better about a turn-around.

[JohnBriggs12]

If he continues to struggle, Bush could be another candidate for a DFA. I hate to say it because I actually like him, but he just hasn't been the same since he got hit with that line drive.

Great point Invader3K. Bush certainly can't be in their plans past this season. Even in his better starts, he's walking a tightrope and running up pitch counts. So if Davis returns, it may be at his expense.

[FVBrewerFan]

Funny how things change. Remember when the Brewers didn't have any LH pitching? Now, after Gallardo, the next 5 best candidates for the rotation are all LH.. Wolf, Narveson, Parra, Davis, Capuano. Not to mention emergency options like Wright and Waters.

 

That's why I sure hope Bush can turn it around, because otherwise they have no choice but to have a rotation with 4 lefties. Unless, of course, anyone is fantasizing about Suppan being an option.

[Invader3K]

They should really be honest with themselves and cut bait with Suppan and Vargas if it means keeping Loe and Capuano. Both of the latter have been way too good in AAA to risk losing.

[Thurston Fluff]

Sort of like the Hart excuse that his appendicitis, another condition that doesn't linger around for weeks but instead hits you like a ton of bricks immediately, was the cause for his slide before going in for surgery

 

While I agree with the Davis situation appendicitis can cause problems before it blows. In college I had a teammate who wasn't anywhere near his normal self for about a month. He complained about not having the strength or stamina he usually had then he had to have an emergency appendectomy. Turns out his appendix was hampering him for a while but wasn't bad enough to cause actual pain. Just bad enough to prevent him from being his usual self.

 

They should really be honest with themselves and cut bait with Suppan and Vargas if it means keeping Loe and Capuano. Both of the latter have been way too good in AAA to risk losing.

 

I haven't been a fan of cutting Suppan or Vargus before now because I thought since it was already money spent better to have that money spent on an emergency plan than nothing at all. Cappy and Loe appear to be better options now so I agree it's time to cut bait on at least Soup. Vargus I'm less inclined to think is useless to us. It's a little early to pull the plug on him yet.

 

 

They are at 13 pitchers now with 3 on the DL. That's 16 total. Cutting Suppan and Vargas gets them down to 14 and frees up spots on the 40 man. But with those two gone, they should be able to get back to the normal level of 12 pitchers once Edmonds comes off the DL. So even without Loe and Capuano, that's 2 more than they need assuming Riske, Davis, and Hawkins all return to the active roster at some point. Sure they could return both Estrada and Braddock to AAA, but what if they keep pitching well?

 

I don't think there is ever a situation where too many relievers are a problem. It wouldn't be all that hard to trade Hawkins. Riske needs to show he can be effective so I think there is time to decide his fate. If he is good in the rehab then he will have trade value. If not he'll be cut anyway.

[rluzinski]

I expect them to play about .500 baseball the rest of the way. It would be nice if they could rattle off a bunch of wins and get back to .500 in a month but that is some very wishful thinking. A guy can hope though.

[JohnBriggs12]

Funny how things change. Remember when the Brewers didn't have any LH pitching? Now, after Gallardo, the next 5 best candidates for the rotation are all LH.. Wolf, Narveson, Parra, Davis, Capuano. Not to mention emergency options like Wright and Waters.

 

That's why I sure hope Bush can turn it around, because otherwise they have no choice but to have a rotation with 4 lefties. Unless, of course, anyone is fantasizing about Suppan being an option.

You're forgetting Estrada who right now I'd take over 3 of the guys you listed.

[Roderick]

It wouldn't be all that hard to trade Hawkins.

Yeah, if the Brewers pick up his salary. $7.5M is quite a chunk of change.

[monty57]

I expect them to play about .500 baseball the rest of the way. It would be nice if they could rattle off a bunch of wins and get back to .500 in a month but that is some very wishful thinking. A guy can hope though.

Of course, if that happens we'd probably trade Brett Lawrie and Jon Lucroy for Cliff Lee. Sorry, I'll stay optimistic :-)

 

MJLiveRock, thanks for the link. It makes me feel better about Davis's health, and you're probably right that it shouldn't have had much effect on his performance year-to-date, although I have no idea. Anything causing sharp pains in the heart seems scary to me.

 

JohnBriggs, we're already in a numbers crunch, and dumping Suppan/Vargas would simply buy us a few more weeks, while upgrading the talent level of our major league team. We'd simply be divesting ourselves of the worse talent while keeping the better, as we're probably losing two pitchers either way.

 

If he continues to struggle, Bush could be another candidate for a DFA.

 

Agreed. Really, I've been hoping he'd pitch better simply so that we could trade him to a team in need of pitching. After the 1/3-inning start, I don't see that happening.

[Hofbraunhaus]

I agree that this team is definitely better than what their record shows. I would love to see a huge turnaround to the season but am not getting my hopes up about seeing .500 again this season. At this point I am focusing my positivity to the fact that if we have a poor record going into July, it will make the Prince decision a lot easier.

[craigharmann]

I see the next month being very telling with roster decisions. Does Loe and Cappy go elsewhere? What about Riske and Hawkins coming off of injury? What about Bush and DD? Definitely some decisions coming that will shape the direction of the club this season.

[sheethead]

I expect them to play about .500 baseball the rest of the way. It would be nice if they could rattle off a bunch of wins and get back to .500 in a month but that is some very wishful thinking. A guy can hope though.

I'm not sure what to expect anymore. Who knows how this roster is going to shake out in the next two weeks. But I would think they can play .500 ball the rest of the way and get to 76-78 wins. It all depends on whether management goes with strength or with cost.

[RockCoCougars]

Your scenario to keep Loe and Capuano has some flaws.

 

They are at 13 pitchers now with 3 on the DL. That's 16 total. Cutting Suppan and Vargas gets them down to 14 and frees up spots on the 40 man. But with those two gone, they should be able to get back to the normal level of 12 pitchers once Edmonds comes off the DL. So even without Loe and Capuano, that's 2 more than they need assuming Riske, Davis, and Hawkins all return to the active roster at some point. Sure they could return both Estrada and Braddock to AAA, but what if they keep pitching well?

This might be for the Cappy post, but at any rate, would it be possible for the team to cut Riske while he is injured if he agreed? I'm pretty sure that's not the case, but it would be nice if they had some kind of injury agreement like the NFL has. I don't see Riske having any value whatsoever to the team at this point anyway.

[FVBrewerFan]

Your scenario to keep Loe and Capuano has some flaws.

 

They are at 13 pitchers now with 3 on the DL. That's 16 total. Cutting Suppan and Vargas gets them down to 14 and frees up spots on the 40 man. But with those two gone, they should be able to get back to the normal level of 12 pitchers once Edmonds comes off the DL. So even without Loe and Capuano, that's 2 more than they need assuming Riske, Davis, and Hawkins all return to the active roster at some point. Sure they could return both Estrada and Braddock to AAA, but what if they keep pitching well?

This might be for the Cappy post, but at any rate, would it be possible for the team to cut Riske while he is injured if he agreed? I'm pretty sure that's not the case, but it would be nice if they had some kind of injury agreement like the NFL has. I don't see Riske having any value whatsoever to the team at this point anyway.

 

Why doesn't Riske have value? Three great outings in Nashville and counting. This is an opportunity for them to really change the pitching staff around if they want to take that opportunity. Add Capuano, Loe, Riske, and Hawkins. DFA Suppan, Hoffman, and Bush. Or maybe even see if Bush would be willing to be reassigned to Nashville. Then keep extending Davis on the DL so you have some options later.

 

I just believe is Hoffman isn't closing, may as well go with Riske. A guy who could be a real effective one inning guy if his arm is right. If anyone "deserves" a chance to start it's Capuano. Loe is worth a shot in place of Bush. These aren't easy moves to make, but I do think they are the right moves.

[Invader3K]

There's no way they DFA Hoffman after his last couple of good outings. None. He'll get at least one more stint as closer.

[FVBrewerFan]

I understand they won't DFA him. Just stating what I would like to see. And of all the moves I listed above, Riske for Hoffman is the one that's the closest call for me.