The trade value of Prince Fielder (part 1)

[monty57]

Since a pitcher replaces a #5 starter, which is basically replacement level thats a much bigger upgrade than a 1B who replaces an average player. Not that hard to see.

I understand what you're saying. You're looking at the opportunity cost, which is important, but let's break it down to the one true common denominator, money. There are likely to be several teams lining up to pay Fielder over $20MM/year, so 1.5 years of his time is worth around $30-35MM on the open market. NY paid Sabathia somewhere around $23MM/year (which was much more than any other team was even considering), so .5 years of Sabathia was worth around $11.5MM on the open market. Since in the only true common denominator between a pitcher and a 1B, 1.5 years of Fielder is worth close to three times what 0.5 years of Sabathia is worth, I'd say that 1.5 years of Fielder is worth more than 0.5 years of Sabathia.

 

Of course, it's not that simple. It is about needs matching up, and for some teams Fielder will be worth more than others. Also, for a team in the playoff hunt, wins this year become much more valuable than potential wins in the future. Finally, teams with bigger budgets can fill roster spots through free agency, making unproven prospects somewhat less valuable than proven MLB players. This is not to say that prospects aren't valuable, but I can't understand the sentiment around here that Fielder is basically worthless in trade, and suddenly unproven AA guys are the most valuable commodity in all of baseball.

 

If Melvin decides to trade Fielder, he will get valuable pieces in return. Not as much as some are hoping for, but much more than others seem to believe. The big question is whether Melvin / Mark A will pull the trigger and trade their most marketable player. There's a lot to consider and it's not an easy decision to make. It is the type of decision that could cost the team dearly (and cost the GM his job) if the return in trade doesn't pan out. For instance, Melvin could trade him for two high upside guys and have neither of them ever reach the majors, having the trade go down on the "worst trades in history" list. That's probably the biggest reason I think they'll wait until the offseason even though their best return could come by trading him now. In the offseason, he will be able to get someone with MLB experience, reducing the risk of bust.

 

As a fan, I don't have to worry about losing my job over this, so I can easily say that I think Fielder should be traded now, and if the Tampa rumor listed earlier is on the table, I'd make the deal in a heartbeat. I'd rather get high upside guys who are not yet in the majors than take a "safer" player who has "proven" himself on a MLB roster. If I actually had skin in the game, I may choose some element of safety, which would be more doable by waiting for the offseason.

[logan82]

Lets not get carried away with what CC actually produced, rather what was a reasonable expectation of his production,

Elite pitchers cost more than position players. That goes even more for position players who play easy defensive positions. I am not concerned with what CC actually did for us and you should know that by now. CC performed way beyond any reasonable expectations. Bringing in a pitcher allows you to replace your worst guy amongst a much larger group. If trading for Fielder would allow a team to replace even a poor hitting guy amongst several positions then he would have much more value. As it is, he has to play a position where you generally already have a pretty good hitter. I am shocked you value pitching so little.

 

I think this is just another case of overvaluing our own players.

[Never Outhustled]

Tampa has Carlos Pena at 1B, he's been awful this year, a trend that started last year. Texas has been awful at 1B, and so has Seattle. If someone gets Fielder, it could be a monster upgrade, if he starts hitting like he's capable. He could have a 2nd half for someone else like CC did for us after a so-so 1st 2 months.

[Invader3K]

Just for fun (slash lines this season):

 

Fielder: .260/397/453/850

Pena: .200/311/417/728

Smoak: .228/336/411/748

Kotchman: .187/265/291/556

 

So yeah, even with his "down" season, Fielder is a pretty significant upgrade for any of those three teams mentioned above.

 

I don't think Seattle will be buying at all unless they have a massive turnaround in the next couple weeks. Last place in their division and 13 games back from Texas.

[monty57]

Lets not get carried away with what CC actually produced, rather what was a reasonable expectation of his production,

Elite pitchers cost more than position players. That goes even more for position players who play easy defensive positions. I am not concerned with what CC actually did for us and you should know that by now. CC performed way beyond any reasonable expectations. Bringing in a pitcher allows you to replace your worst guy amongst a much larger group. If trading for Fielder would allow a team to replace even a poor hitting guy amongst several positions then he would have much more value. As it is, he has to play a position where you generally already have a pretty good hitter. I am shocked you value pitching so little.

 

I think this is just another case of overvaluing our own players.

Per Cot's list of the 28 highest value contract in the history of baseball, 6 went to pitchers, 22 went to position players. Six first basemen were on the list... as many 1B as pitchers. There are five LF on the list. It looks to me like the big bat is historically the most expensive commodity in baseball, regardless of position.

 

Again, money is the only common denominator in baseball. Whether you get paid to throw the ball or hit the ball, you get paid in dollars. If a team is willing to give more money to a position player, why wouldn't they be more willing to pay more in terms of trade?

 

[endaround]

Just for fun (slash lines this season):

 

Fielder: .260/397/453/850

Pena: .200/311/417/728

Smoak: .228/336/411/748

Kotchman: .187/265/291/556

 

So yeah, even with his "down" season, Fielder is a pretty significant upgrade for any of those three teams mentioned above.

 

I don't think Seattle will be buying at all unless they have a massive turnaround in the next couple weeks. Last place in their division and 13 games back from Texas.

Smoak is hitting .318/.416/.576 in June. He's not being replaced. Pena's hitting .270/.347/.603 in June. Pena had a terrible May surrounded byt a fine April and a fantastic June.

[Invader3K]

I think right now in terms of the general "market" in baseball, pitching has become rather undervalued while power hitters have become rather undervalued.

[logan82]

It looks to me like the big bat is historically the most expensive commodity in baseball, regardless of position.

 

It was the most valuable regardless of position. Over the last few years elite pitchers are still getting money while big bats are taking short term small deals on the FA market. The market has changed pretty dramatically over the last few years. Add in that you are talking about 8 positions vs 5 and you are also talking about a bigger pool of players.

 

I think right now in terms of the general "market" in baseball, pitching has become rather undervalued while power hitters have become rather undervalued.

 

I think you meant this instead.

 

I think right now in terms of the general "market" in baseball, pitching has become rather overvalued while power hitters have become rather undervalued.

[Invader3K]

Whoops, yes. I meant to say: "pitching has become rather overvalued while power hitters have become rather undervalued," like you said.

[BillHall02]

Contracts are also hard to use to measure value, as with pitchers injury risk it seems would effect their value more, especially with the longer deals that are typically associated with larger contracts. For example, when the Yankees signed Clemens for just the one year they were willing to give him more, around 30M I believe. With position players, it seems the risk of injury is lower and more importantly the long term effects of the injury are less. On a year to year basis I believe the value of pitching would be significantly higher.

[ILuvDaBush]

Technically, Clemens' contract was for $30M/yr. However, since he went to some Oriental Massage parlor for the first two months of the season, it was only pro-rated to be a bit over $20M. As for the value of pitching being significantly higher on a "year-to-year basis," look at 1-3 year arbitration numbers. Tiny Tim wasn't approaching Miggy/Howard.

 

As for the value of Prince Fielder, it all depends on supply. On the current market, the only two similar players are Berkman/D. Lee. Both are much older and there is noticeable wear and tear (as well as a nasty problem with Berkman demanding his option be picked up). So one would think that Doug Melvin should look like a Brazilian supermodel at a Green Bay bar. However, to continue the analogy, there also happens to be a rumor circulating at the bar that some random Laker Girl is going to be gracing the bar with her presence in the near future, if only her friends would quit drinking (or in Adrian Gonzalez's case, quit winning). Now many would rather have try their luck with the exoticism of Giselle's li'l sis but in Theo's case, he's always wondered what the Laker Girl would look like...in his lineup. Me? I say "Ordem e Progresso."

[endaround]

Not sure how 2 years, $23m isn't approaching Howard and Cabrera since it exceeds what Cabrera got and right in line with Howard's $25m. If you look at highest contracts per year, out of teh top 20, 9 are pitchers. Considering that there are 8 position slots versus 5 pitching slots per team pitchers seem to get more to me.

And you forget Konerko.And half of value also depends upon demand and the demand just doesn't look to be there.

[monty57]

Not sure how 2 years, $23m isn't approaching Howard and Cabrera since it exceeds what Cabrera got and right in line with Howard's $25m. If you look at highest contracts per year, out of teh top 20, 9 are pitchers. Considering that there are 8 position slots versus 5 pitching slots per team pitchers seem to get more to me.

And you forget Konerko.And half of value also depends upon demand and the demand just doesn't look to be there.

I think the important point is that, regardless of position, if you are an "elite" player, you are extremely valuable and will get paid a boatload of money. I believe that if teams would be willing to pay $20+MM/year for your talent, they're willing to give up something in trade for your services, especially when they'd still have you for 1.5 years at a price below that $20MM/year level. Prince probably qualifies as an "elite" player, even though his numbers are a little down for the first 1/3 of this season.

 

You are correct that the price goes up if demand exceeds supply and goes down if supply exceeds demand. I hope San Diego can keep it up to keep Gonzalez off the market, limiting supply. Pujols isn't going anywhere and Howard just re-signed, so Prince is the only really "elite" talent on the market right now, but guys like Konerko will muddle things up, with a team potentially settling for less of an upgrade for less cost.

 

Really, Prince is probably the only elite / difference-making type talent that would be on the market at any position. Last year, in addition to Holliday, there was also Halladay and Lee. Off the top of my head, I can't think of too many other top-caliber players on the market. All it really takes is for one team to decide that Prince is the guy they want, and make a good offer for him. If that doesn't happen this season, wait until the offseason. All I hope for is that Melvin at least tests the water this season to see what offers are there. He can then decide if it's worth it.

[endaround]

I really think you're selling Konerko short. Over the next 5 years, Fielder is a much better bet. Over 3 months, he isn't. And of course the biggest talent out there is Lee but I rake it you mean position players.

 

I'd be fine if a deal opens up say a trade that involves Lee and Fielder going to LA, Loney going to Seattle and prospects going back to Seattle and Milwaukee. I just think there are just too few buyers at 1B/DH whereas you'll have a bunch this offseason (including possibly Detroit finally getting out of the Ordonez contract who would most likely love to have Fielder)

[monty57]

I wasn't sure if Cliff Lee would be on the market, but with Seattle at 29-41 and 13 games back, I'd be pretty surprised if he isn't traded. If rumors are correct (as they often aren't), Roy Oswalt and Dan Haren could be on the market as well. On the position player side, you've really got Dunn, Konerko and possibly Derrick Lee as the other "big bats" that could get traded. I heard rumor that the Nationals are trying to extend Dunn, which would be a good move on their part, and the Cubs' fan base would revolt if Lee was traded, so other than Konerko, there doesn't seem to be a lot of other supply on the market.

 

The Wild Card has definitely helped anyone who wants to sell at the deadline, as there are very few sellers and a lot of buyers. You've got Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Houston, Arizona, Baltimore, Kansas City, Cleveland and Seattle that are more than 10 games out of the Wild Card race. There will be trades of players like Akinori Iwamura, but if a team really wants to upgrade, there isn't much out there. If I had to guess, the Angels will make a run at Konerko, as they will have Morales back next year, so Prince's extra year wouldn't help them as much. I hope they go after him quickly, as they are in need, and that would take the only other big bat off the market. If there is anyone else out there looking to upgrade the offense, their first call should be to Doug Melvin.

 

You may be right that the best offer will come this offseason, but maybe not. This offseason, teams might find it easier to sign Dunn, Lee, Konerko, Pena, Overbay or Berkman as free agents rather than trading for Fielder. All I want is for the Brewers / Melvin to get the best return. As I mentioned earlier, I just hope Melvin doesn't play through this season without even considering trading Fielder, as he may miss out on a good offer from a team desperate for a big bat for the playoff push.

[The Heartbreak Yid]

The pitching strong, offensively challenged Giants would be a great fit for Fielder, and it makes you wonder if they're desperate enough for offense to trade Madison Baumgartner for him.

[Invader3K]

Madison Bumgarner has been regarded as pretty much "untouchable", but I guess you never know if they get desperate enough.

[TooLiveBrew]

Not sure if it was in this thread or not, but I know another poster had the good observation that the Giants probably should already have Sandoval at 1B. I guess if they want to have horrible defense at both corner spots to add a big bat, and would pay a good price, I'd be all for it.

[endaround]

The giants have Posey playing 1B right now. For the future you'd expect a Sandoval move.

[JohnBriggs12]

The White Sox are sniffing around for a big lefthanded bat. You can bet Kenny Williams has Fielder on his wish list.

 

Melvin needs to tell Williams unless he's willing to offer Daniel Hudson, he should forget about it. I don't think Williams will give up Hudson, but he's a guy who'll sacrifice the future if he thinks he's got a chance to win it all now so you never know. Hudson would look awfully good in the Brewer rotation. Don't let that 3.83 current ERA fool you. In his last 10 starts at Charlotte, he's 7-1 with a 2.75 ERA, 69 K's in 59 IP and he turned 23 in March.

[logan82]

Doesn't sound like there is much chance that they trade Fielder before the offseason.

 

 

Whether the Brewers climb back into contention or not, odds are

Melvin will wait until the off-season to trade Fielder, who can be a

free agent after the 2011 season. That would give Fielder time to

rebound from his slow first half and retain his trade value.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Melvin believes

it's often better to trade position players in the off-season, when all

teams are in play, rather than just those fighting for the playoffs in

July.

 

 

 

 

 

 

"You can get more

teams involved," he said. "Pitching, you can trade at any time.

Pitching probably has more value at this time of the year. A pitcher can

fit on anyone's staff.

[Invader3K]

I hope that Melvin doesn't stick to that if someone gives him a "blown away" kind of trade away.

 

Also interesting to hear that Fielder and Boras shot down the extension talks. Hopefully that will quell fan discontent when he is eventually gone.

[JohnBriggs12]

I hope that Melvin doesn't stick to that if someone gives him a "blown away" kind of trade away.

 

Also interesting to hear that Fielder and Boras shot down the extension talks. Hopefully that will quell fan discontent when he is eventually gone.

 

I do. It's still hard to guage his trade value and it's not really a question of being "blown away" as much as instinctively knowing that an offer is a good one. Trading him for warm bodies doesn't make sense. Even if Fielder leaves after 2011, they get a good chunk of salary room and 2 high draft picks. That and having him in the lineup another year in itself might be better than taking a second rate pitching prospect or two and an average every day player.

[RyDogg66]

Boston has lost Pedroia (broken foot) and now maybe Victor Martinez (thumb) for a while, I wonder if that in combination with the Sox improved pitching and overall competativeness along with Ortiz likely not coming back next year could create something with Boston before the deadline.

[endaround]

Where does Fielder then play? Beltre, Youkilis and Ortiz are all killing the ball.