The trade value of Prince Fielder (part 1)

[nate82]

When Atlanta traded for Tex there was a sentiment that he might sign w/ ATL for a hometown discout as a GT player.

That is only a little bit true and wasn't even a consideration when ATL traded for Tex. The Braves believe they were just 1 player away from competing for a championship for the next 1.5 years with Tex. I don't believe Atlanta ever thought they were going to get a home town discount. I don't know why anyone thought that. Just because he went to GT doesn't mean he would give a hometown discount to the Braves.

[RockCoCougars]

The way that I look at it, if Fielder doesn't have a big season this year he becomes much more signable for the Brewers. While I like pitchers with the skill set of Wade Davis, he should only be a part of the deal. While I would want quality ahead of quantity, I'd need at least one more pitcher with upside to even consider moving Fielder.

 

At any rate, it would be a PR nightmare for the Brewers to trade Fielder for players that 95% of the fanbase have never even heard of. I can hear it now, "just like when Selig was running the team", etc., etc.. It would be a huge risk for Attanasio to move Fielder, and he might be better off just trying to sign him at a reasonable rate and letting him walk if he chooses.

[trwi7]

Just because he went to GT doesn't mean he would give a hometown discount to the Braves.

Yeah, if he was going to give any team a hometown discount, it would be the Orioles or Nationals since he grew up in that area.

 

 

804Sox wrote:

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When it was recognized that he was going to go to FA and get a big contract, they got far less in return from the Angels. I think the situation is VERY similar with Fielder.

Except that Teixeira was half a year away from free agency when Atlanta traded him.

[TheCrew07]

While I like pitchers with the skill set of Wade Davis, he should only be a part of the deal. While I would want quality ahead of quantity, I'd need at least one more pitcher with upside to even consider moving Fielder.

You'd walk away from Davis and Alexander Colome for Fielder? I sure as heck wouldn't... A pitcher who's a solid bet to be a very good #2 and another pitcher who has the stuff to be an Ace who's still in A ball. Colome only has 2 bad starts all year, and they were back to back games on Jun 2 and Jun 9. I'd bump Heckathorn up to A+ and insert Colome into the Wisconsin rotation in a heartbeat.

 

BA on Colome:

 

Background: Deemed a raw

prospect with considerable promise, Colome went 1-11, 5.04 in his first

two pro seasons before blossoming as the Rays hoped last summer. He led

the short-season New York-Penn League in strikeouts (94 in 76 innings)

and ranked second in ERA (1.66). He's the nephew of former Tampa Bay

reliever Jesus Colome.

 

Strengths:

Colome has electric stuff and tremendous upside. He has a good frame

and loose arm action, and the ball jumps out of his hand when he's

relaxed. His fastball has been clocked as high as 97 mph and sits at

94-95. He also throws a hard curveball with 11-to-5 break and late bite.

 

Weaknesses:

Though he has started to harness his stuff, Colome is still in the

process of controlling his pitches and commanding them in the strike

zone. He has displayed a decent feel for a lively changeup, but he

often throws it too hard. He tends to overthrow when behind in the

count, which hurts his ability to throw strikes.

 

The Future:

The sky is the limit for Colome once he realizes his strengths and uses

them to his advantage. Even now, hitters rarely get good swings against

him. Provided his changeup comes around, he has the ability to be a

frontline starter. A move up to low Class A awaits.

[Invader3K]

Another thing I was alluding to was the fact that the Braves gave up quite a bit to get Teixeira to basically only have him for two half-seasons. It may not have been worth it for them in the long run.

 

As far as the fanbase, yes, people will be upset, but they quickly got over the Brewers trading popular players like Burnitz, Sexson, Overay, etc. The difference is that we now have other star players on the team which will soften the blow. I think a lot of fans recognize the economic reality of the situation, too. I've heard a lot of casual fans lately say stuff lately like, "Yeah, he wants $200 million? No way, trade him." It won't kill the attendance if he gets dealt.

 

And it sounds like they've already tried to re-sign him. The silence in the supposed contract negotiations has been deafening. If Prince doesn't want to be here for something less than a franchise crippling contract, I would still rather see him traded for something quantifiable than for unknown, non-guaranteed "compensation" draft picks.

[Never Outhustled]

If Prince doesn't want to be here for something less than a franchise crippling contract, I would still rather see him traded for something quantifiable than for unknown, non-guaranteed "compensation" draft picks.

I'm not saying we have to keep him and take the picks, but if we don't trade him, we get more than just picks, we get 1 1/2 seasons more of production from Prince Fielder. That should be rather substantial. Thats anywhere from 5 to 10 wins.

[TheCrew07]

Sure but how valuable are those wins if we aren't to compete for anything?

[brains and braun]

Those wins may actually hurt the Brewers a bit when it comes to draft order next year. I'm not saying I want to lose 90 games, but a top ten pick would be nice if we are stinking up the joint anyway.

[nate82]

Davis and Colome would be a fair deal for both the Brewers and the Rays. I would even pay a quarter of Fielder's contract for next year. Colome gives the Brewers a future ace in their minor league system which no one in the minors looks to be one there are a couple of #1 type pitchers but most are #2's or #3's at best with a vast majority of the Brewers pitchers in the minors probably being #4 or #5 type pitchers or bullpen type guys.

 

This would definitely put the Rays over the top offensively not only for this year but next year. The only big problem with trading to the Rays is the question of payroll for next year. I don't believe Prince would fit into that budget for next year I believe the Rays would love to have Prince I just don't think it will be possible budget wise.

[Never Outhustled]

Sure but how valuable are those wins if we aren't to compete for anything?

 

So were on a 4 or 5 year re-biulding plan? If thats the case, the only threads here need to be about who the next GM is, not the next pitcher.

[TheCrew07]

Why is that necessary? We're no where near 500 this, and then Fielder is in a walk year anyway. If I can get 2 top of rotation arms for 1 year of Fielder, I make the deal 10 times out of 10.

 

We need pitching and we'll be fine, if we don't get any pitching then yes this below .500 deal is going to extend at least another year. Rivas and Rogers could jump up to MLB and make all the difference for us next season, next year is Rogers final option year so it's very difficult to project what's going to happen with the rotation. Either way I'd like more impact depth with the losses of Braddock and Jeffress to the bullpen.

 

Fielder's value to the team directly correlates to how the team is performing. If we're sub .500 team with him, I say take the best deal you can get. If we're in the hunt, then I don't think it's that black and white, and Melvin probably buys at the deadline and I piss and moan about how sort sighted he is.

[Never Outhustled]

Why is that necessary? We're no where near 500 this, and then Fielder is in a walk year anyway. If I can get 2 top of rotation arms for 1 year of Fielder, I make the deal 10 times out of 10.

 

We need pitching and we'll be fine, if we don't get any pitching then yes this below .500 deal is going to extend at least another year. Rivas and Rogers could jump up to MLB and make all the difference for us next season, next year is Rogers final option year so it's very difficult to project what's going to happen with the rotation. Either way I'd like more impact depth with the losses of Braddock and Jeffress to the bullpen.

 

Fielder's value to the team directly correlates to how the team is performing. If we're sub .500 team with him, I say take the best deal you can get. If we're in the hunt, then I don't think it's that black and white, and Melvin probably buys at the deadline and I piss and moan about how sort sighted he is.

 

This is all true, I'm just saying the Crew could obtain pitching in a different trade. Weeks, Hart, McGehee are all guys who should be shopped.

 

However, nothing will happen, as Melvin has shown he's incapable of finding longterm pitching solutions. He'll just continue to claim they don't match up well with anyone, while more dynamic GMs make 3 team deals if necessary.

[monty57]

I'd love it if we could get a good young arm who could be in the rotation immediately and a potential ace currently in A ball. We know Melvin is high on Davis, so if Tampa is indeed willing to talk, it's at least feasible a trade between the Brewers and Tampa could happen. My worry is that Melvin will want to wait for the offseason to see what the market looks like, which will take Tampa off the list of potential suitors.

 

I like Fielder as much as anyone, but the timing of Boras' $200 million dollar contract comment (right after Melvin/Attanasio said they wanted to discuss an extension) told me they are going to test free agency. At that point, it became 100% about getting the best possible return for Fielder.

[nate82]

I'd love it if we could get a good young arm who could be in the rotation immediately and a potential ace currently in A ball. We know Melvin is high on Davis, so if Tampa is indeed willing to talk, it's at least feasible a trade between the Brewers and Tampa could happen. My worry is that Melvin will want to wait for the offseason to see what the market looks like, which will take Tampa off the list of potential suitors.

 

I like Fielder as much as anyone, but the timing of Boras' $200 million dollar contract comment (right after Melvin/Attanasio said they wanted to discuss an extension) told me they are going to test free agency. At that point, it became 100% about getting the best possible return for Fielder.

Actually in the off season is where Fielder's value will increase more so than right now. There will be more teams who would want to trade for Fielder in the off season than there are right now. Right now the Brewers are limited to the Rays, Rangers, Red Sox, Yankees, and Angels realistically.

 

In the off season the teams would change from those five to the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Nationals, Cubs, White Sox, Giants, Mariners, Braves, and the Rays. I don't really see the Rays dropping out of possibility of trading for Fielder if they would trade for him now. If the Rays are really looking at Fielder now then they still would be looking at him in the off season. Of the 5th teams right now you can probably eliminate the Rangers, Yankees, and possibly the Angels so that leaves two teams bidding for Fielder that is a lose lose situation for the Brewers. The Brewers may come out behind in the trade if the Red Sox just drop out of the bidding for Fielder which would then hurt Fielder's trade value even more.

[monty57]

I understand the concept that Melvin preaches where "you get more for a pitcher during the season and more for a position player during the offseason." It's usually a bad idea to use an absolute (always, never, etc.) and I would be disappointed in Melvin if he didn't at least talk to other teams about Fielder. I am fully aware that there is a possibility that they will get more for Fielder during the offseason. However, no one knows what will be offered this season unless that opportunity is explored. If the offer isn't what you want, you wait until the offseason.

 

I do know that 1.6 years of Fielder is greater than 1.0 years of Fielder, and playing on a team's desparation during a playoff push can have some value. I've said for a long time now that Tampa would be a good trading partner this season, as they can turn around and trade him to someone else this offseason if they don't feel he'll fit in next year's payroll. They've lost ground and are now trailing the Yankees by a half game and only a half game up on Boston. For all Tampa knows, Boston and New York will go on shopping sprees this offseason, and they may not be in this good of a situation next year. There's blood in the water and I hope Melvin smells it.

[logan82]

We don't have to trade Fielder by the deadline either. We can try passing him through waivers and trading him after until August 31 for a postseason team. Generally speaking I think teams pass all their players through or at least put them on waivers every year after the deadline.

[twobrewers]

We don't have to trade Fielder by the deadline either. We can try passing him through waivers and trading him after until August 31 for a postseason team. Generally speaking I think teams pass all their players through or at least put them on waivers every year after the deadline.

Every team would put in a waiver claim on Fielder. He would never get to a post season team. So while true, I can't imagine Fielder passing through waivers with another year on his contract.

[Invader3K]

If Fielder gets traded this season, it will be before July 31st. Realistically though, I think he'll be dealt in the off-season since there won't be that many teams interested in his services during the season.

[ILuvDaBush]

But also, realistically, how many teams would be willing to give up a big piece of their future for one year of Prince, let alone two (and still boast of holding onto its best young pitcher in the majors as well as in the minors)? The Red Sox could be in play, but their primary target continues to be Adrian Gonzalez, and they continue to wait for the Padres to fall out of contention (or declare bankruptcy...) and watch as Lars Anderson loses all his value...again. The Angels continue to deny any interest in getting better. Maybe we can package Prince/Gamel and get a PTBNL from Washington's recent draft. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[TheCrew07]

But also, realistically, how many teams would be willing to give up a big piece of their future for one year of Prince, let alone two (and still boast of holding onto its best young pitcher in the majors as well as in the minors)? The Red Sox could be in play, but their primary target continues to be Adrian Gonzalez, and they continue to wait for the Padres to fall out of contention (or declare bankruptcy...) and watch as Lars Anderson loses all his value...again. The Angels continue to deny any interest in getting better. Maybe we can package Prince/Gamel and get a PTBNL from Washington's recent draft. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

That's like saying who would give up a big piece of their future for 4 months of Sabathia?

[endaround]

Since a pitcher replaces a #5 starter, which is basically replacement level thats a much bigger upgrade than a 1B who replaces an average player. Not that hard to see.

[TheCrew07]

Not that hard to see.

The usual one line response with nothing behind it.

 

We traded for 4 months of Sabathia, Fielder would be where even longer, Bryson is going to be good, I still believe LaPorta will be a good hitter, and I really liked Brantley at the time. At the very least we gave up 12 years of service time for 4 months. I thought it was stupid, I still think it's stupid, but teams make deals that I think don't make sense every year.

 

Literally for 100th time this is about needs matching up, that's it. A year and a half of Fielder is worth more than 1 year of Fielder, and certainly equal to whatever Sabathia is worth, depending on what metric you want to use.

 

If we're talking the Rays, they have an incredibly young rotation the way it is with Hellickson in AAA. How would they be trading their future? Davis/Niemman aren't the best pitcher on that team and anything can happen between A ball and MLB.

 

I'm happy taking prospect pitching back, I'm certainly not obsessing about a pitcher with MLB experience like some are.

 

It doesn't matter because Melvin won't make a move regardless, if he does it will be at the deadline next season if we're out of the race. Why would Melvin aggressively pursue impact pitching now? What's changed?

[logan82]

Fielder is not necessarily close to value of CC. Even over an extra year. CC is a huge upgrade over his replacement. Fielder is a small upgrade over his replacement and can probably be replaced for less cost in prospects and money.

[TheCrew07]

Lets not get carried away with what CC actually produced, rather what was a reasonable expectation of his production, so often when discussing a trade the context of that time frame is lost. We traded a top 20 prospect, a solid OF prospect, and a solid pitching pitching prospect for what was likely 3 or 4 extra wins that season.

 

Sabathia actually replaced Gallardo in the rotation, not a 5th starter, we can argue semantics about Yo's replacement all day.. but in effect Sabathia was acquired to replace the void left by Yo when he blew out his knee.

[endaround]

Sabathia did not replace Gallardo. Gallardo was out. Sabathia replaced the #5 starter in the rotation. Sabathia was expected to give 3 to 4 wins over that, Fielder over half a season 1.5-2 over who he is replacing. You need 5 starting pitcher you only need 1B. It makes a huge difference for in season value.