The trade value of Prince Fielder (part 1)

[Invader3K]

Sounds good to me. Either one of those would be nice acquisitions, from what I've heard.

[nate82]

Yes please I would love to have Wade Davis.

[Invader3K]

Looking at the standings this morning, the Yankees are now tied with the Rays for first place in the AL East, with the Red Sox only four games back. Maybe this will put pressure on Tampa to make a strong move.

[MNBrew]

I was exchanging emails last night with Jonah Keri. He told me that while Tampa is somewhat looking to scale back payroll next season, they could really use Fielder and might make a move to truly "go for it" this season. His bat in their lineup would really put them over the top. While they would not part with Hellickson or Jennings, he thinks that they would part with either Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann for Fielder.

 

I think I would trade Prince for one of those two and maybe another lower level prospect? Thoughts?

If I'm Doug Melvin, I aim for both those pitchers for Prince. If I'd have to sweeten the deal from the Brewers end, it shouldn't have to be too much.

 

If the Rays gave up that much for Prince, they could & likely would also afford to find ways to keep him. So if I were Tampa in that hypothetical deal, I'd be looking at it in terms of keeping Prince for the long haul. If he gets too big or slow or whatever to field well enough, they still have a stud DH (and probably better defense at 1B, too).

[RockCoCougars]

Yes please I would love to have Wade Davis.

So you guys would trade Fielder straight up for a soon to be 25 year old pitcher with an ERA approaching 5, a WHIP approaching 1.5 and barely 6 strikeouts per 9 innings? Just asking- because it would take a lot more for me to even think about it.

[BrewCrewForever]

Yes please I would love to have Wade Davis.

So you guys would trade Fielder straight up for a soon to be 25 year old pitcher with an ERA approaching 5, a WHIP approaching 1.5 and barely 6 strikeouts per 9 innings? Just asking- because it would take a lot more for me to even think about it.

He is struggling a bit this season, no doubt. But he still has a lot of upside. I would want at least one other player in that deal.

 

Like MNbrew said, if Doug could somehow get both Davis and Niemann, that would be great. But the Brewers have to include another piece for that deal.

[NievesNoNO]

I think Davis would be a good target. Yes, he's struggling which while it doesn't seem like a good thing, is a potential reason for the Brewers to have a shot at acquiring him. If he was pitching like he started the season I'm sure they probably wouldn't consider moving him. It also could give the Brewers leverage in asking for a second quality prospect.

[MNBrew]

I think Davis would be a good target. Yes, he's struggling which while it doesn't seem like a good thing, is a potential reason for the Brewers to have a shot at acquiring him. If he was pitching like he started the season I'm sure they probably wouldn't consider moving him. It also could give the Brewers leverage in asking for a second quality prospect.

I see Davis as having potential, sure. But since when is this guy even in the same league talent- and results-wise as Price or Niemann? Davis alone for Fielder is absurd. Fielder is a an elite stud hitter, slow start notwithstanding.

 

You trade a Prince Fielder, you start at Price or Niemann PLUS as the return or you're grossly undervaluing the best potential trade asset that we might actually consider moving (in other words, not Braun or Gallardo).

[TooLiveBrew]

You would be up for GMOTY honors imo if you get Price for (1+ season of salary control remaining) Fielder. You absolutely do not get him, let alone more.

[804Sox]

I think Davis would be a good target. Yes, he's struggling which while it doesn't seem like a good thing, is a potential reason for the Brewers to have a shot at acquiring him. If he was pitching like he started the season I'm sure they probably wouldn't consider moving him. It also could give the Brewers leverage in asking for a second quality prospect.

I see Davis as having potential, sure. But since when is this guy even in the same league talent- and results-wise as Price or Niemann? Davis alone for Fielder is absurd. Fielder is a an elite stud hitter, slow start notwithstanding.

 

You trade a Prince Fielder, you start at Price or Niemann PLUS as the return or you're grossly undervaluing the best potential trade asset that we might actually consider moving (in other words, not Braun or Gallardo).

1) Price is not on the table

 

2) Niemann is probably a possibility, though a bit of a longshot. Davis is certainly in his league, though, and was considered by most to be the better prospect while both were in the system (for what it's worth). Either one would probably be a fair return for Prince and should be players that the Brewers target. Prince could definitely help push the Rays over the top if they see their current window closing, and either pitcher could be adequately replaced both in the short term and long term.

 

3) I think they'll most likely hold on to both. I think Davis' stuff plays up really nicely in the pen and I think he could become their closer of the future (pure speculation on my part). Additionally, if the rays are taking on Prince's contract to win this year, it would seem that they would be far less likely to trade a piece from the current team that's performing well (and is cheap for now). The Brewers and Ray both might be better served negotiating a package of younger players with a bit more upside than either Davis or Niemann. Colome and Matt Moore are two names that have been thrown around on this forum. One of them in addition to Nick Barnese and maybe a C prospect could be a decent return.

[NievesNoNO]

MNBrew[/b]]

I see Davis as having potential, sure. But since when is this guy even in the same league talent- and results-wise as Price or Niemann? Davis alone for Fielder is absurd. Fielder is a an elite stud hitter, slow start notwithstanding.

 

You trade a Prince Fielder, you start at Price or Niemann PLUS as the return or you're grossly undervaluing the best potential trade asset that we might actually consider moving (in other words, not Braun or Gallardo).

I fail to see how Niemann is any better than Davis. I actually think Davis has the better stuff, but not the results as Niemann yet. I certainly wouldn't put Niemann in the category of Price. While Fielder is our best trade asset, he's only an asset while under contract. Everyday his value slips. While I don't want to give him away, if you can get a pitcher who has some form of a MLB track record with some success and still has some upside then I think you ought to consider going that route instead of letting him walk for two picks that may or may not ever reach the major leagues. But yes, I would take Niemann or Davis. I just think if you take Davis because he's under performing maybe you stand a better chance of getting another player thrown in the mix.

 

 

[endaround]

His value doesn't slip, it may well increase. More teams will need a 1B at the end of the season than do now.

[nate82]

So you guys would trade Fielder straight up for a soon to be 25 year old pitcher with an ERA approaching 5, a WHIP approaching 1.5 and barely 6 strikeouts per 9 innings? Just asking- because it would take a lot more for me to even think about it.

Davis and Colome would be more than enough for Prince. Colome would really be the center piece of the trade really. Davis if he turns it around would be a good acquisition but Colome is a possible future ACE. Even next year the rotation with Gallardo, Wolf, W. Davis, Parra, Narveson/Davis/Rogers/Rivas/Butler wouldn't be all that bad. I believe the Brewers would have an at least an average rotation if not better.

[TheCrew07]

Aren't we over exaggerating Davis' struggles just a bit? He's a rookie, he's going to have his ups and downs. Texas lit him up for 8 ER in 3.1 IP on Jun 4th, and Boston got to him on May 24th, but his been average to good in the rest of his starts. He still hasn't even pitched 20 career games. At the same point in his career David Price had a 5.12 ERA, who on the this forum wouldn't take him on our team?

 

Braun and Fielder must have skewed people's expectations of what happens when rookies come up to the big leagues given what's been said about Escobar, Gamel, and now Davis around here. Typically rookies just aren't going to produce at a consistent level.

 

Davis has gone at last 6 IP six times so far this season.

 

Davis has gone 7 IP twice so far this season.

 

Davis has gone less than 5 IP twice so far this season. These 2 starts account for 13 of his 39 ER on the season.

 

Davis has gone 5 IP 4 times so far this season.

 

That looks like a pretty typical rookie season so far to me.

[Invader3K]

I heard Buster Olney on Homer this afternoon. He really downplayed Fielder's value at this point, even quoting a baseball GM who said that with Fielder's impending free agency and the fact he is a Boras client, he isn't worth much. He basically said there is no way we would get anything close to the Teixeira trade. To be honest it was kind of disappointing to hear.

[RockCoCougars]

So you guys would trade Fielder straight up for a soon to be 25 year old pitcher with an ERA approaching 5, a WHIP approaching 1.5 and barely 6 strikeouts per 9 innings? Just asking- because it would take a lot more for me to even think about it.

Davis and Colome would be more than enough for Prince. Colome would really be the center piece of the trade really. Davis if he turns it around would be a good acquisition but Colome is a possible future ACE. Even next year the rotation with Gallardo, Wolf, W. Davis, Parra, Narveson/Davis/Rogers/Rivas/Butler wouldn't be all that bad. I believe the Brewers would have an at least an average rotation if not better.

I admittedly know very little about Colome, but after reading a scouting report, he sounds like the type of pitcher the Brewers should stockpile (more specifically, hard throwing). I would definitely listen if multiple arms were involved, but I'm not trading Fielder straight up for a pitcher with that stat line of Wade Davis regardless of how highly rated prospect he has been.

[MNBrew]

two things:

 

1. I didn't mean to suggest (post #132 in this thread) that the Brewers would get Price for Prince. I'm saying if I'm the GM, I start there knowing I'd likely end up with someone still very good but just not named David Price.

 

2. I don't live with my head in the sand, but I never heard about Davis before this year. For the past couple years I've been hearing about David Price. I've been hearing about Niemann since he was a top draft pick and one of that fleet of top-prospect pitchers at Rice University.

 

Davis' stats are good, but he spent 6 years in the minors, which isn't the typical path of top-flight prospects. And I'M NOT SAYING HE WON'T BE A GOOD PITCHER. But to me he's not the same caliber of pitcher as Niemann or Price, so he alone, in my view, is not AT ALL what you go out hoping/expecting to settle on as a return for a guy who hit 46 HRs, 141 RBIs, and not far below .300 in his 25-year-old season last year . . . and who already had a 50-HR season in the bigs under his belt.

 

Any GM with a clue is not going to enter trade talks with an asset like Prince expecting less than elite talent in return. That doesn't mean he expects Price. But if you don't start high, you might as well just give him away. . . . "Hi, Andrew Friedman, this is Doug Melvin. Fielder. Yup. How 'bout for Niemann & Davis and a top 5 prospect, or do you need me to sweeten it just a little, too? Oh, no, you won't go for that? Well, I suppose, Prince is really rather stocky with a body that has DH written all over its future. And yeah, in case you forgot, he's pretty lousy fielding over at first base. And his stats aren't very good this year, either. And his dad, when he lost it, he lost it quickly. But does he ever do a great bowling ball imitation w/ his teammates!. . . Yeah, okay, I guess you're right. . . . Alright, then, Sonnanstine and that 28-year-old career minor-league middle reliever you've got at AA should about do it. Let's sign & fax everything in the next 5 minutes so we can hold our press conferences in time to be home for dinner."

[logan82]

The Brewers would have drafted Wade Davis if he had not been drafted when he was. They apparently had the card written with his name on it as their next pick when he was drafted by TB. Instead they took Joshua G Wahpepah. Rodgers if he hadn't been injured, Gallardo Davis would be a pretty nice looking start to building a rotation.

[804Sox]

2. I don't live with my head in the sand, but I never heard about Davis before this year. For the past couple years I've been hearing about David Price. I've been hearing about Niemann since he was a top draft pick and one of that fleet of top-prospect pitchers at Rice University.

Not insinuating that you're not paying attention, but Davis pitched well at the end of last year too (in addition to being a top prospect) so he hasn't exactly come out of nowhere. Niemann was a more highly regarded player (top 5-10 picks as I recall) entering the 2004 draft, but both were picked pretty high. Unfortunately, like the rest of that Rice staff (Humber and Townsend), Niemann lost some time due to arm injury and his stock dropped as a result. Here's BA's rankings over the past few years. Obviously not the be all/end all, but serves to demonstrate roughly equivalent value as prospects. Personally, I prefer Davis' stuff/upside - more of a strikeout pitcher - he's much easier to move to the back end of the pen (good FB/slider combo) if he can't stick in the rotation. As others have noted, though, can't really go wrong with either.

 

2010

3. Davis

 

2009

3. Davis

10. Niemann

 

2008

4. Davis

7. Niemann

 

2007

4. Niemann

7. Davis

 

2006

2. Niemann

6. Davis

 

Edit: Didn't completely address your point. w.r.t. his time in the minors: I assume it was really 4 and 2 halves rather than 6 (2004 after he signed and half the year last year, but that's kind of splitting hairs. In any case, last season he was blocked in the rotation much like Hellickson is this year, so it wasn't for lack of performance. Seems he moved pretty steadily and gained steam as a prospect as time went on. Regardless, the overall point stands.

[TheCrew07]

Just because you never heard of a guy, doesn't mean he's not very good. How about we get acquainted with a prospect before we throw them under the bus?

 

From BA's scouting report on Wade Davis.

 

Background: With Scott Kazmir

continually battling his command and injuries, the Rays dealt him to

the Angels last August and inserted Davis into his rotation spot. He

pitched a complete-game shutout with 10 strikeouts against the Orioles

for his first big league win and looked very comfortable in the majors.

 

Strengths:

Davis throws a heavy 93-94 mph fastball with above-average sink. His

11-to-5 curveball is also a plus pitch, arriving at 77-81 mph. He has a

tall, strong frame that produces an easy delivery and an outstanding

downhill plane on his pitches. The Rays also like his mental and

physical toughness.

 

Weaknesses:

Davis also throws a changeup and slider, neither of which is as

consistent his two plus offerings. If he can command one of those

secondary pitches and throw a few more strikes, he could be dominant at

the major league level.

 

The Future:

Barring something unexpected, Davis should be a fixture in the Tampa

Bay rotation for the foreseeable future. He has the upside of a No. 2

starter, and the Rays also could be tempted to make him a closer down

the road as they try to figure out how to get all of their talented

young pitchers on the big league staff.

[MNBrew]

Just because you never heard of a guy, doesn't mean he's not very good. How about we get acquainted with a prospect before we throw them under the bus?

Come on. Are condescending remarks like that really necessary? I did some research before I posted. And I don't think this constitutes throwing Davis under the bus, for goodness' sake:

 

"Davis' stats are good, but he spent 6 years in the minors, which

isn't the typical path of top-flight prospects. And I'M NOT SAYING HE

WON'T BE A GOOD PITCHER. But to me he's not the same caliber of pitcher

as Niemann or Price, so he alone, in my view, is not AT ALL what you go

out hoping/expecting to settle on as a return for a guy who hit 46 HRs,

141 RBIs, and not far below .300 in his 25-year-old season last year . .

. and who already had a 50-HR season in the bigs under his belt."

 

Just because the Brewers liked Davis and were almost able to draft him 6 years ago doesn't add to his promise. His big league stats this year are Dave Bush-esque -- and it's mid-June. Yes, his 6 starts last year count for something. While the specifics of the stats vary, the promise showed by him then isn't really any different than that showed by Parra & Villanueva when they first came up & did rather well. Narveson was excellent as a starter last September, but the longer he's in the rotation this year, the less effective he's been. Davis could well fulfill his potential and live up to that potential

#2 starter billing. Even now he'd likely represent at least a small upgrade over a couple spots in the Brewers' rotation. But he's not showing all that promise yet this year -- which is a much larger sample than last fall, by comparison -- let alone enough so for me to feel that he alone is a worthy return in exchange for Prince Fielder in a potential deal.

 

If you disagree, that's fine. That's part of the fun of forums like this.

[Never Outhustled]

I heard Buster Olney on Homer this afternoon. He really downplayed Fielder's value at this point, even quoting a baseball GM who said that with Fielder's impending free agency and the fact he is a Boras client, he isn't worth much. He basically said there is no way we would get anything close to the Teixeira trade. To be honest it was kind of disappointing to hear.

 

Olney isn't making sense here. How does Fielders impending free agency and being a Scott Boras client make this a different situation than the Teixeira situation. Tex is also a Boras client, and was also dealt 1 1/2 years before free agency. Tex is a better defender, but Fielder is younger, with more name recognition.

 

Don't be disappointed in what Olney said, because as usual, he's just spouting drivel.

[TooLiveBrew]

His big league stats this year are Dave Bush-esque -- and it's mid-June.

 

And he's a rookie, and he pitches in the AL East. And his stuff blows Bush's out of the water. TheCrew07 did a pretty nice job breaking down Davis's performance so far, and even though you cite mid-June as an acceptable sample size, the reality is he's only made 13 starts this season, and 19 in his MLB career. He was Baseball America's #17 overall prospect heading into '08, & #32 heading into '09. This is precisely the kind of pitcher Melvin should be looking to get for Fielder. Since when is it atypical for guys drafted out of H.S. to play 6 MiLB seasons?

 

 

1. I didn't mean to suggest (post #132 in this thread) that the Brewers would get Price for Prince. I'm saying if I'm the GM, I start there knowing I'd likely end up with someone still very good but just not named David Price.

 

You actually said, "You trade a Prince Fielder, you start at Price or Niemann PLUS as the return". I see that you meant in terms of negotiations, but if you start negotiations for Prince asking for David Price+, you get hung up on pronto.

[TheCrew07]

Come on. Are condescending remarks like that really necessary?

It wasn't intended to be condescending, I have no control over how you interpret what I type. You said you didn't have your head in sand but you've never heard of the guy... I'm not sure what part of that I got wrong?

Davis' stats are good, but he spent 6 years in the minors, which

isn't the typical path of top-flight prospects.

Alright I'll keep playing. How long a player spends in the minor leagues has generally more to do with who is in front of him and organizational philosophy. Just because most organizations handle young pitchers very poorly also doesn't make less of prospect. What reason did TB have to rush Davis with Kazmir, Garza, Jackson, Niemann, and Shields in front of him, and a super prospect in Price behind him? Sometimes age can determine prospect status, sometimes not. Odorizzi spent 2 years in rookie ball, he'll be in the minors 5 seasons before he sees Milwaukee, is he less of a prospect?

But to me he's not the same caliber of pitcher

as Niemann or Price

Niemann isn't the same caliber of pitcher that Price is, and Davis has the potential to be every bit as good as Niemann.

Just because the Brewers liked Davis and were almost able to draft him 6 years ago doesn't add to his promise.

No the fact that his FB has excellent life and sits 93-94, which is a tick harder than Yo, adds to his promise. He has 2 plus pitches now, and has the potential to develop a solid 3 pitcher arsenal.

Narveson was excellent as a starter last September, but the longer he's in the rotation this year, the less effective he's been

Precisely my point, judge the player's talent, give that talent room to grow, and don't carried away with the early returns either way. If you look back you will find that I always wanted Parra in the rotation in front of Narveson, but I would have taken Narveson over Suppan. I've never been a big Narveson supporter, nor will I be. I actually like Loe's toolbox much better than Narveson's, I just think Narvy is very average. Also, as I previously pointed out David Price has actually pitched worse than Wade Davis through a similar number of appearances to start their career, I just don't care at all what the stats say this early. Statistical models simply do not work when evaluating prospects going through the growing pains adjusting to MLB, I'm more interested in what I see than what they are doing statistically.... sacrilegious around here I know, but I'm interested in developing talent and winning games, and I don't believe those ideas to be mutually exclusive at all, certainly not to the degree that many posters do anyway.

But he's not showing all that promise yet this year -- which is a much

larger sample than last fall, by comparison -- let alone enough so for

me to feel that he alone is a worthy return in exchange for Prince

Fielder in a potential deal.

He went 7 shutout innings on May 2nd but he hasn't flashed his promise? He also pitched 7 strong innings on Jun 10th. He pitched to 1 batter in the 8th, gave up a single and was pulled for Randy Choate who allowed the runner to come around to score. Wolf has only finished the 7th inning 3 times all season, and 2 of those 3 were Pit and Hou. Bush has only finished the 7th 3 times, Narveson once and Parra, Davis, and Suppan haven't done it once collectively.

 

I stand by my assertion that perception and unreasonable expectations have clouded reality, not only in this discussion, but many prospect discussions on this site.. Davis is holding his own, he'll get better, he's a rookie pitching in the toughest division in baseball, give him time.

[804Sox]

It's also important to note that he pitches in the AL East, and has started 2 games each against NY and BOS, one game against TOR, and one each against TEX and ATL. That's 7 of his 13 starts against the top 9 offenses in all of MLB.

 

Davis is still just 24 and has accrued less than a full year of service time, meaning he (likely) has yet to reach his peak and will be under team control for 5 more years. There's a lot to like, particularly if he can develop a consistent change to go with his plus FB and breaking ball.

 

In response to the following: "How does Fielders impending free agency and being a Scott Boras client

make this a different situation than the Teixeira situation. Tex is also

a Boras client, and was also dealt 1 1/2 years before free agency. Tex

is a better defender, but Fielder is younger, with more name

recognition."

 

When Atlanta traded for Tex there was a sentiment that he might sign w/ ATL for a hometown discout as a GT player. When it was recognized that he was going to go to FA and get a big contract, they got far less in return from the Angels. I think the situation is VERY similar with Fielder. If he signs for any kind of bargain it will be with the Brewers, but anyone that trades for him should expect him to test FA. with a limited market for him in FA (only the rich, big market teams) the trade market is going to have fewer buyers too since no team, particularly no small market team, will want to trade legit prospects (which Fielder will certainly command) for a player that they won't have long term.

 

I predict that the limited number of teams in the market to sign Prince in FA will drive his trade value down, inviting more teams to enter the bidding until the market reaches some sort of equilibrium.