The trade value of Prince Fielder (part 1)

[RyDogg66]

Ideally you send him to Tampa Bay at the deadline so they can seal the deal on the AL pennant and you talk them into sending us Hellickson and Matt Moore. I'd even send them back Manny Parra if they threw is someone like Alex Cobb. Then they can let Pena and Crawford walk at the end of the year, take the picks they get for them and replace them in 2011 with Fielder and Desmond Jennings.

[MNBrew]

Maybe a silly question, but if Crawford were willing to extend here, would you try to get him in a Fielder trade? It'd be a totally different slant to trading Fielder. And I'd still want to get a good pitcher in return, too, which probably means including Parra or some others.

 

Somewhere (mlbtraderumors.com?) I read that if the Brewers were to dump Parra, the line of suitors trying to snatch him up would be a mile long. Sounds like Parra's really not the guy we want to get rid of yet. At least this year, he's clearly shown he's hardly a major culprit in the pitching crimes that keep being committed.

[endaround]

Keep in mind Randy Johnson didn't become "Randy Johnson" until he was 29. Now he wasn't terrible before that, but lefties with the stuff Parra has are rare.

 

As for Crawford, it doesn't seem he wants to paly anywhere but left field and the Rays look to be giving it one final push this year so he is unlikely to be available.

[804Sox]

Ideally you send him to Tampa Bay at the deadline so they can seal the deal on the AL pennant and you talk them into sending us Hellickson and Matt Moore. I'd even send them back Manny Parra if they threw is someone like Alex Cobb. Then they can let Pena and Crawford walk at the end of the year, take the picks they get for them and replace them in 2011 with Fielder and Desmond Jennings.

Yikes. Asking for both might be a bit much. Hellickson is MLB-ready right now, so the fact that he's in the minor leagues sells his value a bit short. I think it is highly unlikely that hey would part with a player like Hellickson, particularly if Moore was included, even for a player of Fielder's caliber. It's just not the organizations' MO.

 

I think a return of Moore and Colome would be much more reasonable. What would people think of that?

[RyDogg66]

That is why I included Parra.

[Invader3K]

I don't know. You would think we could get a good deal for 1.5 years of Fielder without having to include one of our few starters that can throw in the mid '90s. Gonzalez probably isn't going to be on the block like originally thought, given the Padres are in first place. Fielder is probably going to be the far and away best offensive player on the market, assuming Melvin decides to shop him (which barring a massive and quick turn around, I hope he does). We shouldn't have to include extras with Fielder, quite frankly.

 

Edit: Just saw this posted on the CBS Sports Brewers board. I have no idea what this guy's source is, so take it with a grain of salt:

 

Word has it that Jack Z has been

interested in Prince recently even mustering up and offer that includes

Doug Fister, Michael

Saunders or Dustin Ackley (2009 #2 draft pick) and Casey

Kotchman.

 

Sounds like a pipe dream to me, especially given that the Mariners are in last place, so I don't put much stock in it.

[TooLiveBrew]

Is there anyone to be excited about in that deal? Fister only looks to be another guy that throws in the upper 80s, Saunders & Ackley are corner OF or 1B bats, and Casey Kotchman? That's exactly the kind of deal for Fielder I'm worried Melvin would make.

 

Forgive me if I've overlooked anything, but I just don't see why that deal would make sense from the Brewers' perspective.

[Invader3K]

Probably something a Mariners' fan came up with, I assume.

[TheCrew07]

Yikes. Asking for both might be a bit much. Hellickson is MLB-ready right now, so the fact that he's in the minor leagues sells his value a bit short. I think it is highly unlikely that hey would part with a player like Hellickson, particularly if Moore was included, even for a player of Fielder's caliber. It's just not the organizations' MO.

 

I think a return of Moore and Colome would be much more reasonable. What would people think of that?

My first thought is that they can only 5 pitchers in the rotation so Hellickson could find himself in a Niemann situation where he uses up all his options waiting for a rotation slot to open up.

 

I like Matt Moore's stuff, loved his K rate last year as he K'd 176 hitters in 123 innings. The bad, he also walked 70, and so far in the FSL he's fairing similarily to our own Cody Scarpetta even though he throws harder. I'm not interested in rotation help this season, but I would like an impact arm besides Rivas to be available for next year, but I don't think Moore or Scarpetta will be close. Love the K rates, hate the BB rates, they'll both need a full year in AA.

 

For those that don't know who Matt Moore is here's the good part of his scouting report from BA, I won't post the entire report because it's subscriber's content.

Strengths: Moore's 90-92 mph

fastball touches 94 and has impressive movement. His hard,

late-breaking curveball generates awkward swings and misses. He does a

great job of keeping his pitches, including a changeup with

screwball-like action, down in the strike zone. He made impressive

strides last year in his ability to reduce his pitch counts and work

out of jams.

Alexander Colome could be an absolute stud, but he's so far away as he's just hitting full season ball for the first time this year, though he's absolutely tearing up the Midwest League. I actually like him more than Moore and I have a an affinity for lefties being one (hence my Dell Howell man crush), but again he likely won't be ready to help for 2011 and maybe the second half of 2012 if he would experience a Yo like rise through the system. I'm absolutely fine taking back a high upside stud like Colome in A ball, but I feel we do need impact talent for the 2011 rotation. Here is BA's strength report on Colome.

 

Strengths: Colome has electric

stuff and tremendous upside. He has a good frame and loose arm action,

and the ball jumps out of his hand when he's relaxed. His fastball has

been clocked as high as 97 mph and sits at 94-95. He also throws a hard

curveball with 11-to-5 break and late bite

So I guess in summary I really like the players you've chosen, but I'm hesitant because neither one will be MLB ready next season, though both could help in 2012 but more likely 2013 for Colome. If the Brewers are trading with the Rays I think Hellickson is a must, if we have to take a lesser prospect like Jake McGee back I could live with that just to get Hellickson... In fact I could probably be sold on Hellickson for Fielder straight up but that's not Melvin's MO. I guess basically what I'm saying is to get Hellickson I'd take less projectable pitchers like Alex Torres, Jake McGee, or Nick Barnese (also an injury risk).

 

An as aside, I love that TB's prospects are in all the same leagues as our prospects, it makes it very easy to follow the prospects of my 2 favorite organizations that way.

[TheCrew07]

Is there anyone to be excited about in that deal? Fister only looks to be another guy that throws in the upper 80s, Saunders & Ackley are corner OF or 1B bats, and Casey Kotchman? That's exactly the kind of deal for Fielder I'm worried Melvin would make.

 

Forgive me if I've overlooked anything, but I just don't see why that deal would make sense from the Brewers' perspective.

I concur, if that kind of deal was made for Fielder I'd be on my way down to Miller Park to give Melvin his beat down.

[And That]

Ackley can't be traded until August 17th.* That's when he signed last year. That rumor was made up.

 

Just for fun, though... Fister's may or may not be anything and at this point the only value Kotchman would have is making the defense better, but if we're offered Saunders in the deal, it's something Melvin should explore. He's amongst the top 30 prospects in the game. I don't know how much higher up that prospect list we're going to get in a return for Fielder. Saunders also bats lefty, which would be nice, and he could allow us to move Hart if he's still hot.

 

Around Saunders at the least I'd want Michael Pineda or Steven Hensley, plus another top 30 pitching prospect, and Casey Kotchman sans his salary.

 

*Unless he's a PTBNL, but I think it's doubtful.

[TheCrew07]

Saunders and Ackley are interesting positional talents no doubt, but how would a deal like that help Milwaukee's rotation?

[TooLiveBrew]

[saunders is] amongst the top 30 prospects in the game. I don't know how much higher up that prospect list we're going to get in a return for Fielder. Saunders also bats lefty, which would be nice, and he could allow us to move Hart if he's still hot.

 

That's what worries me. Saunders is clearly a talented player, no doubt. But he doesn't address a real need within the organization. Gamel could fill in at RF, or Cain, or a FA signing. You can't sign high-upside power arms unless you overpay in dollars & years, something the Brewers literally & figuratively can't afford to do. I have to admit I know nothing about Pineda & Hensley, fwiw

 

The other thing I'd say here is that nothing should preclude the Brewers from moving Hart if they find a solid deal.

[And That]

It's entirely possible that Milwaukee could get better value out of Fielder by trading him for position prospects. I don't think Melvin (or whichever GM ends up trading Fielder) can go into trade negotiations with starting pitcher tunnel vision. I don't know of too many clubs that will give up 4-6 years of a high-end young starting pitcher and that also only need Fielder to perform for them for a season and a half. If they can land a young starting that can help right now, I mean, great, but I don't know who that person is.

[Bombers]

It's entirely possible that Milwaukee could get better value out of Fielder by trading him for position prospects. I don't think Melvin (or whichever GM ends up trading Fielder) can go into trade negotiations with starting pitcher tunnel vision. I don't know of too many clubs that will give up 4-6 years of a high-end young starting pitcher and that also only need Fielder to perform for them for a season and a half. If they can land a young starting that can help right now, I mean, great, but I don't know who that person is.

That is a good point. I just don't know who that person is either. The more I think about it the more I feel like there is absolutely no way the Rays trade Hellickson. Even straight up. He will be in their starting 5 next year. You can never have to much pitching. In fact I would probably just cross the Rays off the trade list now that I think about it. Even the Rangers. They have Smoak, so what do they need fielder for. I guess you could move him to DH but that lowers Fielders value even more. The bad thing for the Brewers is there isn't a good match. (It's even a bad thing for Fielder as there are not a whole lot of teams who need his services)

 

Maybe trade Fielder for Overbay and some Jays prospects - Just to make it go full circle as Overbay was moved to make room for Fielder http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

[bklynbrewcrew]

I don't know. You would think we could get a good deal for 1.5 years of Fielder without having to include one of our few starters that can throw in the mid '90s. Gonzalez probably isn't going to be on the block like originally thought, given the Padres are in first place. Fielder is probably going to be the far and away best offensive player on the market, assuming Melvin decides to shop him (which barring a massive and quick turn around, I hope he does). We shouldn't have to include extras with Fielder, quite frankly.

 

Edit: Just saw this posted on the CBS Sports Brewers board. I have no idea what this guy's source is, so take it with a grain of salt:

 

Word has it that Jack Z has been interested in Prince recently even mustering up and offer that includes Doug Fister, Michael Saunders or Dustin Ackley (2009 #2 draft pick) and Casey Kotchman.

 

Sounds like a pipe dream to me, especially given that the Mariners are in last place, so I don't put much stock in it.

 

If Melvin even considers a deal like this he should be fired on the spot. Fister is another starter with no upside, Ackley has been absolutely panned by scouts this year and Kotchman has no value whatsoever. Z would make a good trading partner for Fielder but unfortunately for us they have a terrible farm system.

[TheCrew07]

The more I think about it the more I feel like there is absolutely no way the Rays trade Hellickson. Even straight up. He will be in their starting 5 next year.

Who's rotation slot is he going to take? Garza? Shields? Niemann, Price, and Davis all have less than 2 years service time. I'll take whichever pitcher TB doesn't want to keep.

[BrewCrewForever]

The more I think about it the more I feel like there is absolutely no way the Rays trade Hellickson. Even straight up. He will be in their starting 5 next year.

Who's rotation slot is he going to take? Garza? Shields? Niemann, Price, and Davis all have less than 2 years service time. I'll take whichever pitcher TB doesn't want to keep.

Yup, I would take any of the current TB starters or Hellickson as a starting point for a Fielder trade. I just think TB is too smart to trade for Prince.

 

I still can't believe they got the Twins to give them Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett for Delmon Young.

[804Sox]

The more I think about it the more I feel like there is absolutely no way the Rays trade Hellickson. Even straight up. He will be in their starting 5 next year.

Who's rotation slot is he going to take? Garza? Shields? Niemann, Price, and Davis all have less than 2 years service time. I'll take whichever pitcher TB doesn't want to keep.

Yup, I would take any of the current TB starters or Hellickson as a starting point for a Fielder trade. I just think TB is too smart to trade for Prince.

 

I still can't believe they got the Twins to give them Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett for Delmon Young.

Responding to all of this:

 

You can never have enough pitching. Injuries happen, and rarely does a team make it through a season with their rotation in tact. There is no reason a team should trade away a sixth quality SP just because the rotation is "full" at the moment, especially when he (and most of the others that he could replace) are making the league minimum. Worst case, Hellickson pitches in relief while he gets his feet wet (a la Liriano and so many others), or they move another pitcher to that role. I think Price, in particular, could be dominant bullpen arm, as he was in the playoffs a couple years ago, but he's pitching well as a starter now, so you've got to keep him there. The good thing about pitching prospects is that they are rarely truly blocked.

 

Also, the Twins-Rays trade looked balanced at the time. Delmon was coming off a solid rookie season and had been the consensus top prospect in baseball the year before. He showed poor discipline, but was known for great defense, good power, and a nice line-drive stroke. Garza had not reached his current level yet either, so I think it was viewed as a fairly balanced trade at the time - need for need.

[804Sox]

So I guess in summary I really like the players you've chosen, but I'm hesitant because neither one will be MLB ready next season, though both could help in 2012 but more likely 2013 for Colome. If the Brewers are trading with the Rays I think Hellickson is a must, if we have to take a lesser prospect like Jake McGee back I could live with that just to get Hellickson... In fact I could probably be sold on Hellickson for Fielder straight up but that's not Melvin's MO. I guess basically what I'm saying is to get Hellickson I'd take less projectable pitchers like Alex Torres, Jake McGee, or Nick Barnese (also an injury risk).

 

An as aside, I love that TB's prospects are in all the same leagues as our prospects, it makes it very easy to follow the prospects of my 2 favorite organizations that way.

So I guess the question is - and this is a philosophical question as much as a specific question - in trading a franchise player like fielder, do you hope to get one stud prospect (plus filler) in return to replace him (i.e. Fielder for Hellickson straight up), or hedge your bets by taking a greater number of lesser (or less advanced) high-ceiling prospects in the hopes that one reaches their potential or more than one become solid contributors (i.e. Moore and Colome)?

 

What do people think? What are the merits and weaknesses of each, both in this specific case and in general? Is there a track record of one being more successful than others?

[TheCrew07]

I think it depends entirely on the situation. In Milwaukee's case I think the evidence is pretty clear that Melvin tends to favor trading for high floor/low ceiling type players. You know the majority of them will contribute in some fashion, but none of them will likely be an elite player. If Milwaukee was in TB's situation with the rotation, I would happily take back Moore and Colome because we wouldn't have a pressing need at the MLB level and 1 of those 2 youngsters is going to become a good pitcher down the road.

 

Until Milwaukee has enough impact pitching talent, I will personally always be a quality over quantity guy. I completely understand that even super prospects flame out, but we just can't continue to roll with a rotation of 1 impact pitcher and 4 guys. We continue to have a plethora of back of the rotation starters in the organization, but we don't have anyone that would truly make a difference outside of Yo, especially in a playoff series. Wolf can maybe give us a quality outing, but I don't think he's someone you can count on to lock the opposition down through out the playoffs. So as far as this specific case of Fielder is concerned, I absolutely want impact talent back, and I want the player ready to go for 2011.

 

In a pure talent sense, I think anytime you're trading a franchise talent you need to get impact talent back. I believe this is especially true if you're a small market team drafting outside of the top 10 as it's very difficult to replace that elite talent later in the draft. If a small market team doesn't trade for the talent, then the team is basically limiting itself to the draft because a team like Milwaukee just isn't going to compete in FA with the big boys for established impact talent. So in our case we're always dealing with potential impact talent, trying to evaluate prospects, or should be in my opinion. This is by far the biggest issue I have with Melvin as a GM, he's a patcher, he likes to apply band aid solutions when he thinks the team is competitive, but I think that building rotation remains a constant priority regardless of where you are in your MLB talent cycle. A small market franchise can never quit looking forward and just focus on today.

[sheetskout]

I doubt they could even get Smoak for Prince straight up. If they could, I'd do that deal tomorrow.

I don't think they (Texas) would do it either. Smoak debuted this season, and has a TON of cheap years ahead of him. This is the problem with Fielder. It's not that big a step for a competing club to stick with a second-tier guy at 1st. Having a Smoak who will hit .275 with 25HR's at his worst for the next few years at $450,000 is way more value than a guy hitting at Fielder's (expected) levels for 23 million.

 

The idea of Smoak also doesn't address our larger concern.

 

Fielder and another to Atlanta for Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, Freddie Freeman I would do in a second! And take that freed up revenue and sign a good starter.

[paul253]

Aside from Fielder, which Brewers player has the highest trade value. I'm only talking about guys who may actually get traded. Obviously Gallardo and Braun aren't going anywhere. But if the Brewers continue to reach new levels of suckiness, I really hope they trade Fielder by the all star break. Who else can actually bring something back though? Hart? Zaun? Relievers tend to bring back nice low level prospects. It'd be nice is guys like Hoffman and Hawkins could get their act together so we can trade them.

I don't think they (Texas) would do it either

 

To be honest, I wouldn't make that trade. It's not a knock on Smoak, but how does that improve our team? Gamel can move to first base and and I think offensively his upside if comparable to Smoak's. Unless we bring back pitching, there is not point in trading Fielder because without pitching, this team will go nowhere.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, if Fielder was to be traded, I don't want the Brewers' return centering around a first baseman. We could potentially slide McGehee or Gamel into that spot in the future. If a stopgap type guy is thrown in with a good pitcher, then fine. I wouldn't be excited for a Fielder/Smoak type deal as it doesn't address the club's core need.

 

However, like I said in another thread, I'm thinking more and more that Fielder will not be traded this season, given Attanasio's recent comments about Macha and Melvin. I just get the sense he wants them to ride out this season and then "go for it" again in 2011.

[BrewCrewForever]

However, like I said in another thread, I'm thinking more and more that

Fielder will not be traded this season, given Attanasio's recent

comments about Macha and Melvin. I just get the sense he wants them to

ride out this season and then "go for it" again in 2011.

 

Ugghhh, if that is what happens that is a complete joke. And I will not think nearly has highly as I do now of Mark Attanasio.