The trade value of Prince Fielder (part 1)

[Tbadder]

I think Scott Boras and Fielder's contract demands pushes Fielder's value so low that I think the Crew should hang on to him and take the draft choices. Add in a perceived regression in production, it might be that Prince is no more valuable than Hart. I can't see the Sox making any moves now anyways--they're riding roughshod over the American League. Why mess with a streak? Just a thought.

[Yeti73]

I don't think they'd include Beckham, but would give up Hudson + another top tier prospect. Wouldn't shock me to see Hudson struggle a bit to start out. He'd be a good NL pitcher.

[Bnowell4evr]

Id prefer Dayan Viciedo over Beckham but that doesnt mean I wouldn't settle for Beckham.

[monty57]

Again, if Fielder's trade value is 'so low', who is going to give him a huge contract in a year and a half? If a team won't give up significant talent now for a younger/cheaper Fielder for two pennant drives, what makes anyone think that someone is going to jump into the fray and offer him a long term 9-figure deal that significantly trumps the Brewers' offer? Is pitching worth that much?

 

I agree with you in sentiment. Many here are far too down on Prince Fielder and his trade value. Some make it seem like we should be happy if we get anything for him. The fact that he is likely to test free agency no matter who trades for him does drive his value down some, but look at a highly rated MLB ready starting pitcher, and a recent top-10 draft pick as a decent return for Fielder.

 

The important thing is that Melvin tests the waters to find the best possible return. If this White Sox rumor is indeed a possibility, then it could be a baseline for negotiations with other teams. Maybe now other teams are saying "if the White Sox are willing to give up Hudson and Beckham for Fielder, we'd better up our ante." Even if the rumor isn't true, Olney put it out there, and that in itself could get other GM's acting.

[RockCoCougars]

Again, one of these guys can play 1B. Who's going to replace Prince? And you're assuming that Weeks will stay long term as well.

 

 

So you'd pass on a potential trade because there are four guys that would be needed for three positions, without even considering a possible need in the OF, OR the possibility that some other moves could be made? Is this because Beckham has been awful in the first half? Don't look now, but he's heating up and it would be a mistake to dismiss him because of a bad half season at his age.

 

As far as the MJ/Sam Bowie stuff, that flew right over my head. I have no idea what you're talking about, or why you're acting as if people are comparing Beckham to MJ.

As I've said, I'd prefer to retain Fielder if possible. One last try this off-season. If not, he should be peddled for a legit pitcher (Garza, Cain, etc.) or an outfielder with some pop in his bat. If Fielder cannot be signed, both Weeks and Hart should be extended with that money. I see Hart as a good replacement for Fielder at first in that scenario. I think that he could handle first base just fine. The last thing that Fielder should be traded for is another infielder, especially one who hasn't shown that he can hit for power without an aluminum bat. I just don't understand how people think that Fielder and Hart can be moved and those 60-65 home runs won't be missed. I cringe when I see outfield proposals with 'Braun/Gomez/Cain'. Cain strikes me as a guy with a Daryl Hamilton type ceiling if he is lucky- meaning very little power, too bad he's not a left handed hitter like Hamilton. So you replace Fielder/Hart with Beckham/Hudson/'stud prospect' pitcher for Hart/Cain, and you are probably losing 30 homers if you are lucky. Those of you who don't like 'small ball 'had better embrace it with that lineup. Even if you put Gamel at first, there still isn't enough room for Beckham. I suppose you just let Weeks walk in that case. I just don't get it. There is money enough to pay some of these guys, why do a lot of you seem to want to build a Florida Marlins type team? Cheap, but with 'heaps of potential'

 

I say instead of starting a rebuilding project, try dumping the manager first.

 

By the way, I didn't start the Jordan/Bowie thing. Above amongst all the Beckham jock sniffing, there was a reference to the Trailblazers not drafting Jordan because they had Drexler.

[BADGERJOBOB]

Stevo]Right. Sorry, I should have seen that the first time.

 

Hudson and Beckham would be a haul for Prince. I don't see the White Sox trading Hudson unless they get a starter back. He's in their rotation now with Peavy out for the year. Really, I'd be surprised if they traded Beckham either.

I don't consider that a haul at all. Hudson projects as a number 3 pitcher. Is that what we really expect to get out of a Prince trade. One potential number 3 pitcher? This team needs pitching, and by pitching I mean good pitching, high projectability not average albeit cheap MLB ready pitching. If we don't get more than a number 3 pitcher than we might as well just keep him around another year and a half and roll the dice with additional draft picks that we can spend on yes cheap pitching, and focus on average arms, average potential that is close to MLB ready (YUCK!).

 

And while Beckham might be great, we have hitters in the minors and we have McGehee blocking him at third with Gamel in the mix as well. Last thing I want is to start another round of musical chairs of moving players all over the field and in essence continuing the status quo of deteriorating our defensive capabilities for offensive potential. Pitching and defense first and foremost and we can worry about offense later.

 

 

[BADGERJOBOB]

RockCoCougars wrote:

I cringe when I see outfield proposals with 'Braun/Gomez/Cain'.

Yea that would not be good. I think if Hart is traded, we would hopefully see an outfield of Braun/Cain/FA outfielder with money saved from any Hart/Fielder deal. An established veteran who can get us through a year or two until someone from the minors is ready to step up.

 

Also, while home runs are great, nothing wrong with manufacturing runs. Yes we lose a lot of home runs if we trade Hart/Fielder but this club relies way too much on the home run and we do have 3 other players on this club who will hit 25 plus home runs. We need more diversity with our offense. High on-base guys, speed guys, good hit and run guys. A good on-base guy with some speed and a manager who actually uses the speed, the bunt, the hit and run, the double steal, basically what he has at his disposal and we can get by offensively as long as we greatly improve our starting pitching. The question is, can we greatly improve our starting pitching by trading Hart/Fielder.

 

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Another thing to like about Beckham is that he can handle 2B as well

[monty57]

RockCo, I think it's a big jump to assume Hart keeps this up. As of today's date, he is 2 HR short of his career season high (24 in 2007). I just can't believe that he's suddenly turned into a Hall of Famer after looking pretty pedestrian for much of his career. A lot of players have good 1/2-seasons (look at Alex Gonzalez and his 17 HR this year), and it's my opinion that we should sell him when his value is high. It's very likely that if we don't trade him, we could end up paying him around $8MM (or extending him for something like 5/$50) and have him hit for a .750-.800 OPS with below average defense, which will get worse as his speed slips as he ages.

 

As far as Fielder, Melvin and Mark A were very vocal that they were going to try to extend him... then Boras quickly came out with his $200MM comment. Now rumors are swirling that he is on the market. I think Melvin/Mark A now realize that there is 0% chance of extending him, or re-signing him as a free agent. I, too, would prefer to retain him if possible, but it is no longer possible. We now need to look at how to best maximize his value to the Milwaukee Brewer franchise.

 

Our offense will take a hit without Fielder, and to a lesser extent Hart (although if he hits like last year, it would be easy to improve upon). We "went for it" in 2008, and traded away Fielder's (and possibly Hart's) in-house replacement to make the playoffs. Now we're out of the race, so we need to trade to get young players back so we'll be good into the future. I hope we get a good bat back in trade for one of them. If Prince were traded for the rumored White Sox package, there's nothing saying that Hart couldn't be traded for the rumored Rays package of Moore and the young 3B/1B prospect who apparently has an advanced bat, and could be our 1B by 2012. Or, Olney could have been picking a name out of the air with Beckham, and the actual Fielder trade ends up being for a good young pitcher and a good young OF. There are a lot of possiblities out there. I just hope we can get one SP who will be on our team to start next season. After that, I hope we get the most talent possible, whether they be pitchers or hitters.

 

Shooting for established MLB players just doesn't seem like a good plan to me, as we'd only control those players for a couple of years. Then what do we do when they leave? We certianly shouldn't trade Fielder for someone we'll only have one season and then have to trade away. That would be a really bad cycle to be on. I hate the uneven financial playing field of MLB, but as a Brewers fan, I have to accept that the Brewers have their hands tied compared to some of the other teams. We need to get players "under control" for a number of years. It will be a good problem to have if we can get someone like Hudson/Minor/Davis now, and in 3-5 years be able to trade them off as our current A/A+ pitchers reach the majors. That will be how we'll maintain long-term success. This goes for hitting as well as pitching, so for all those saying that we just need to get as much pitching as possible, please realize that we already have a lot of young arms in the low minors, and we will need some impact bats in the future as well.

 

We're close, and the return from Fielder and Hart could go a long ways to getting us there. We just can't look at the rest of this season as being important, and we probably shouldn't be looking at having a legitimate shot at a World Series next year (although I think we can still field a competitive team and could improve on this year). Use Fielder and Hart to add a lot of talent to the system and substantially improve our pitching while still maintaining an above-average offense.

[thebruce44]

So you replace Fielder/Hart with Beckham/Hudson/'stud prospect' pitcher for Hart/Cain, and you are probably losing 30 homers if you are lucky.

 

If you replace 2010 Hart with 2011 Hart you are also probably going to lose 15+ HRs. If his HR/FB rate was normalized he would have 10 dongers so far, not the 22 that came out of nowhere. Sure its possible he has turned a corner and will continue to hit for more power, but not at this rate.

[PrinceEatMeat]

So you replace Fielder/Hart with Beckham/Hudson/'stud prospect' pitcher for Hart/Cain, and you are probably losing 30 homers if you are lucky.

 

If you replace 2010 Hart with 2011 Hart you are also probably going to lose 15+ HRs. If his HR/FB rate was normalized he would have 10 dongers so far, not the 22 that came out of nowhere. Sure its possible he has turned a corner and will continue to hit for more power, but not at this rate.

I think you're right about Hart, and also I think people are thrown off by Fielder's 50 HR season still. I think he'll turn out be more of a 30-35 HR guy throughout his career, with probably some 40 HR seasons mixed in. I don't see why Gamel couldn't step in and hit 25-30 HR also. So that's not a huge drop-off. I think the main thing to look at here is that we need to steer away from being a HR hitting team anyway. I'd rather use guys like Escobar and Cain to try to manufacture some runs. If we can get on base better the amount of HR's we lose won't matter as much because the HR's we do hit will be 2 and 3 run shots, and not all the solo shots we've been getting this year.

[NievesNoNO]

Stevo[/b]]Hudson and Beckham would be a haul for Prince. I don't see the White Sox trading Hudson unless they get a starter back. He's in their rotation now with Peavy out for the year. Really, I'd be surprised if they traded Beckham either.

I agree it would be a nice haul and I agree I can't see them parting with both, but crazier things have happened. I'm not sure what wouldn't be to like about that deal. We'd get the Sox top prospect each of the last 2 seasons. I don't really care about the surplus of infielders, it would just give us more flexibility in the off-season for another move.

 

 

[Tennik]

In my opinion you take the best possible package of players for Prince regardless of position. You find a spot for them later. All that said it's a nice problem to have. On another note I'm not sure how to feel about this week's sudden lack of rumors regarding Prince and Hart (other than Olney's speculation last night). Is it possible there are deals in the works so everyone has gone underground, or is DM waiting this thing out and hoping a team desperate to stay in contention comes calling?

[PrinceEatMeat]

In my opinion you take the best possible package of players for Prince regardless of position. You find a spot for them later. All that said it's a nice problem to have. On another note I'm not sure how to feel about this week's sudden lack of rumors regarding Prince and Hart (other than Olney's speculation last night). Is it possible there are deals in the works so everyone has gone underground, or is DM waiting this thing out and hoping a team desperate to stay in contention comes calling?

They always say no news is good news, and yes it sometimes tends to get quiet when trades are beginning to become imminent or teams are seriously talking trade and don't want it to get out to other teams. I really don't think the lack of news means much. Fielder and Hart are still on the block and available for the right offer just as they have been all along. I'm not too worried about Doug getting something done before the deadline.

[CheezWizHed]

One thing to remember when talking about theoretical trades in a forum is that the real trade or subsequent trade may already "fix" the logjam. Maybe McGehee goes with Fielder in the trade. So its probably not worth racking our brains to fix a theoretical problem until after the real trade is made...

[paulmolitor4]

Right. Sorry, I should have seen that the first time.

 

Hudson and Beckham would be a haul for Prince. I don't see the White Sox trading Hudson unless they get a starter back. He's in their rotation now with Peavy out for the year. Really, I'd be surprised if they traded Beckham either.

I don't consider that a haul at all. Hudson projects as a number 3 pitcher. Is that what we really expect to get out of a Prince trade. One potential number 3 pitcher? This team needs pitching, and by pitching I mean good pitching, high projectability not average albeit cheap MLB ready pitching. If we don't get more than a number 3 pitcher than we might as well just keep him around another year and a half and roll the dice with additional draft picks that we can spend on yes cheap pitching, and focus on average arms, average potential that is close to MLB ready (YUCK!).

While, I agree, that wouldn't necessarily be a haul for Prince, you are vastly underrating Hudson. Hudson has ace potential. He was one of the best pitchers in the minor leagues last year. In fact, he was MLB.com's Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year. If the Brewers were to acquire him, he would immediately become the Brewers best pitching prospect.

 

 

 

[Never Outhustled]

[quote author=RockCoCougars wrote:

[/b]

I cringe when I see outfield proposals with 'Braun/Gomez/Cain'.

Yea that would not be good. I think if Hart is traded, we would hopefully see an outfield of Braun/Cain/FA outfielder with money saved from any Hart/Fielder deal. An established veteran who can get us through a year or two until someone from the minors is ready to step up.

 

Also, while home runs are great, nothing wrong with manufacturing runs. Yes we lose a lot of home runs if we trade Hart/Fielder but this club relies way too much on the home run and we do have 3 other players on this club who will hit 25 plus home runs. We need more diversity with our offense. High on-base guys, speed guys, good hit and run guys. A good on-base guy with some speed and a manager who actually uses the speed, the bunt, the hit and run, the double steal, basically what he has at his disposal and we can get by offensively as long as we greatly improve our starting pitching. The question is, can we greatly improve our starting pitching by trading Hart/Fielder.

 

 

I agree that any OF with Gomez in it is pretty limited, because he is a terrible OPS guy. This team is near the top in runs scored, and near the top in scoring at least 4 runs in spite of him because this team has a high team OPS. We should concentrate on keeping the team OPS as high as possible, while improving the defense and pitching.

[dadofandrew]

Cain is barely younger than Gomez, and would be way below average in a corner OF spot, even if he was a plus defender. Cain is a bit of an unknown, since he missed all of last year, but even the most optimistic Cain supporter would have him struggle in RF in '11.

[Never Outhustled]

dadofandrew]Cain is barely younger than Gomez, and would be way below average in a corner OF spot, even if he was a plus defender. Cain is a bit of an unknown, since he missed all of last year, but even the most optimistic Cain supporter would have him struggle in RF in '11.

 

True, but kind of a non-issue as Cain will be starting in CF next year.

 

As I right this Gomez makes another bad play defensively that costs the Brewers a run. I should say Cain will be starting in CF next week.

[Kelbysdaddy]

i love the white sox as a trade partner. if beckham is made available for the fielder trade i would be super stoked, although i really think he needs some time in AAA(he really was rushed). here is my couple of pennies as far as a couple possible trades goes

to chicago:

fielder and bush

to milwaukee:

dayan viciedo(can play 1b)

dan hudson

jordan danks

beckham

- this would give the white sox a 5th starter and the brewers a replacement for fielder.

danks is really fast and hits for good average and works the field well from what i've seen.

chicago:

fielder, bush and mcgehee

milwaukee:

dayan viciedo

dan hudson

jordan danks or brent morel

beckham

jared mitchell

tyler flowers

 

either way i see it being good for both teams. chicago would definatly take the central and milwaukee could be set up very well for the future. any positional log jams could be very good trade pieces since it would be some VERY quality depth (especially if flowers is involved being such a premium position). piece that with trading hart to atlanta for minor and weeks somewhere for some low level pitching and a late 2011/2012 line up like this would be pretty bad ass

1-viciedo/2-lawrie/ss-esco/3-beckham/ lf-braun/cf-cain/rf-gamel/mitchell/danks(bench spots)

rotation- gallardo/hudson/minor/odorizzi/5th

pitching depth could be very good for the brewers in a couple years, and who knows, maybe we'd be able to trade some of it for a star player. i also really like hunter morris in low A as the 1b of the future.

[TooLiveBrew]

We should concentrate on keeping the team OPS as high as possible, while improving the defense and pitching.

 

So, basically, we should try to make the team better. And not worse.

[logan82]

I should say Cain will be starting in CF next week.

Wish in one hand, well you know the rest. Doesn't look like Cain will be starting any time soon.

[804Sox]

Kelbysdaddy] i love the white sox as a trade partner. if beckham is made available for the fielder trade i would be super stoked, although i really think he needs some time in AAA(he really was rushed). here is my couple of pennies as far as a couple possible trades goes

to chicago:

fielder and bush

to milwaukee:

dayan viciedo(can play 1b)

dan hudson

jordan danks

beckham

- this would give the white sox a 5th starter and the brewers a replacement for fielder.

danks is really fast and hits for good average and works the field well from what i've seen.

chicago:

fielder, bush and mcgehee

milwaukee:

dayan viciedo

dan hudson

jordan danks or brent morel

beckham

jared mitchell

tyler flowers

 

either way i see it being good for both teams. chicago would definatly take the central and milwaukee could be set up very well for the future. any positional log jams could be very good trade pieces since it would be some VERY quality depth (especially if flowers is involved being such a premium position). piece that with trading hart to atlanta for minor and weeks somewhere for some low level pitching and a late 2011/2012 line up like this would be pretty bad ass

1-viciedo/2-lawrie/ss-esco/3-beckham/ lf-braun/cf-cain/rf-gamel/mitchell/danks(bench spots)

rotation- gallardo/hudson/minor/odorizzi/5th

pitching depth could be very good for the brewers in a couple years, and who knows, maybe we'd be able to trade some of it for a star player. i also really like hunter morris in low A as the 1b of the future.

yikes. don't count on that. why would the white sox give up more of their best prospects if the brewers throw in average players like bush and mcgehee?

[dadofandrew]

They have went from 8 relievers to 6, and I'd say Cain is close to being sent down now for a pitcher...if one SP gets knocked out early, he's gone. Regardless, he's gone when Yo is activated, unless they give up on Cappy.

[Never Outhustled]

They have went from 8 relievers to 6, and I'd say Cain is close to being sent down now for a pitcher...if one SP gets knocked out early, he's gone. Regardless, he's gone when Yo is activated, unless they give up on Cappy.

 

After last nights dreadful defensive performance, I think Gomez put the nail in his coffin. I'm guessing Cain gets the start tonight, and its Gomez that gets sent down when they activate Yo.