The trade value of Prince Fielder (part 1)

[Oldcity]

Prediction: when Prince Fielder signs his Free Agent deal it will immediately become the worst contract in baseball.

Ryan Howard will still have his contract, so I don't see any way this could be true.

[TheCrew]

What about the Rockies as a trading partner.

 

Maybe a package centered around Tyler Matzek?

[trwi7]

What about the Rockies as a trading partner.

 

Maybe a package centered around Tyler Matzek?

I doubt they bench Helton, especially after just extending his contract despite how bad he's looked.

 

[dadofandrew]

Hart can play LF or RF, while Prince is just a 1B. Add that to the lefty/righty thing, Corey is bound to have twice as many suitors.

[TheCrew]

I doubt they bench Helton, especially after just extending his contract despite how bad he's looked.

Yeah, that part would tough considering they are going to pay him $19 million next season - still can't believe they committed that much to him - but at the end of the day it's about production and Helton has been terrible this year. He is also on the DL now - If they were willing to admit their mistake, it seems like the rox would be a good match prospect wise.........

[RyDogg66]

Prediction: when Prince Fielder signs his Free Agent deal it will immediately become the worst contract in baseball.

Ryan Howard will still have his contract, so I don't see any way this could be true.

Howard's contract will be two years shorter by that time though. Prince is likely to get 7 years and more money than Howard got, IMO.

[804Sox]

Just because more teams have expressed interest in acquiring Hart doesn't mean he is more valuable or has higher trade value. More teams are interested in Hart because he makes less money, will cost less in prospects, and plays a position that the interested teams need (as opposed to 1B, where most teams have serviceable players)

 

I think Hart's value/trade value is being tremendously oversold. He is still a flawed player, and the teams asking about him know this just as well as we do. His hot first half has not led well managed teams like the Rays to believe he's a superstar, and even poorly run teams like the Giants have sufficiently realistic perceptions of his value to not give up top-flight MLB-ready pitching for him. Adding fungible pieces like Coffey (a solid reliever) will not change that fact. Hart will not be traded for Bumgarner. Hart will not be traded for Hellickson. Hart will not be traded for Teheran and probably not even Minor. On the other hand, Prince's value has not diminished as much as some think. Unfortunately, the market for his services is relatively small, but the Brewers need not rush to move him. Fielder is an elite power hitter, and very good overall player that I would compare more to Ryan Howard than Texeira or others. When Prince is traded, the return will be substantial (but this doesn't mean Hellickson + Colome + Moore or whatever . . . pitching prospects have substantial value too).

Limited supply+More demand=higher value, which is why Hart will bring back better than his perceived overall value if he's traded now and why Prince would bring back lesser value. This is a concept that's true in virtually every business, including baseball. Some of the top prospect trades are a bit pie-in-the-sky, but they are no more ridiculous than the idea that the Brewers should settle for a project like Sanchez or unwanted prospects.

Yeah. I get the whole supply and demand thing. I should have been more clear, but I was referring to hart's value being oversold and Fielder's perhaps being undersold in the context of the pulse of this message board. I think some are overreacting to the high "Demand" (expressed in trade rumors, tweets, etc.) for Hart relative to Fielder and incorrectly assuming that this will make his trade value, or "Price" greater than fielder's. Obviously this is not the case because there are different markets for 1B and RF and the players are largely not interchangeable. Additionally, the demand for Hart could be greater due to the knowledge that his price would be significantly lower.

[Invader3K]

Is it just me or does Boras seem a bit agitated that anyone would dare question his assertions about Prince?

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/98394679.html?page=1#comments

[jwill535]

Of course he is getting defensive, especially when nothing he says is accurate and is getting called out for it. I love Prince as a player and wish he could say, but to say that Prince is more valuable then Texieria is just ridiculous.

[Tedaldtada]

I actually think Boras made some good points. Prince has been very durable for a fat guy. That is undeniable. Boras does get his elite clients the big money too.

 

Now, the defense thing is another issue, especially since 1B D is incredibly difficult to evaluate. His errors are trending down though. Is this not a good thing?

 

I also hate all the unamed high ranking MLB officials that make derogatory comments about players.

 

Boras thinks that these comments build up Price's value (and they might), but dropping that $200M figure did not. If not for that crazy assertion, I think teams would be lining up to trade for him. I am still behind taking the picks if we can't get a Hellickson, Minor, Moore+ or Baumgarner, etc. The Brewers have to set a precedent that we can compete next year and that we won't get pushed around in these trade talks.

 

With Rogers and Rivas on the cusp, I feel like we already have a couple Mike Minors in the system. Sign some stopgap starters for next year, let those AA guys get their feet wet. Then in 2012, Peralta, Fiers, Scarpetta, and maybe Odorizzi and Hecky will be close. I know Im inthe minority here, but I don't think we should give up on our current 5-10 year plan. Extra picks in 2012 can set us up nice for 2014 and beyond.

 

If we can get 'our guy' in a trade, fine, but the nice thing about th draft is every guy you select is 'your guy'. We just cannot let other teams dictate the Prince Fielder trade.

[colbyjack]

Yeah. I get the whole supply and demand thing. I should have been more clear, but I was referring to hart's value being oversold and Fielder's perhaps being undersold in the context of the pulse of this message board. I think some are overreacting to the high "Demand" (expressed in trade rumors, tweets, etc.) for Hart relative to Fielder and incorrectly assuming that this will make his trade value, or "Price" greater than fielder's. Obviously this is not the case because there are different markets for 1B and RF and the players are largely not interchangeable. Additionally, the demand for Hart could be greater due to the knowledge that his price would be significantly lower.

 

I agree with this. Hart is likely to have more suitors because he is somewhat attainable. Less teams are going to be interested in Prince for the exact reason why the Brewers may be looking to move him at this point in time. That doesn't mean he has less value.

 

I heard Keith Law on the radio this morning who compared (again) Prince's situation to that of Teixeira's when the Rangers traded him to the Braves. He noted that Prince may not get that kind of package because he wasn't having his best season, but that is the type of package the Brewers should target/expect in return.

 

I think the Red Sox, Angels and White Sox make a ton of sense. Kenny Williams is known for making some incredibly aggressive deals, and he certainly hasn't been shy about moving his top prospects for premium talent in recent years (I heard Gordon Beckham/Dan Hudson tossed out as an idea this morning). Both the Angels and the Red Sox have very deep resources to work from in regards to both prospects and finances. It also helps the Brewers that the Padres are leading the NL West, as Adrian Gonzalez isn't on the market like many thought he would be.

[Fatter than Joey]

Prince has been very durable for a fat guy

 

Fat guys are generally durable until they aren't -- that is to say, once they go, the going is fast.

 

Now, the defense thing is another issue, especially since 1B D is incredibly difficult to evaluate. His errors are trending down though

 

His errors could trend down, because he is either becoming a better defender, or his range is decreasing -- In either case errors are not a good way to measure progress. I tend to think no matter how thin you slice it, Prince just isn't a good defender.

 

If we can get 'our guy' in a trade, fine, but the nice thing about th draft is every guy you select is 'your guy'.

 

Banking on draft picks can be quite dangerous -- Even when CC left, we ended up getting worse picks than we had expected, because of other FA moves that the Yankees made.

[monty57]

As for the supply/demand debate over Hart vs. Fielder, I kind of look at it this way:

 

Everyone would like a Ferrari, but the true demand for Ferrari's is pretty low due to the price tag. Most people who want a sports car would settle for a Ford Mustang, so a lot more Ford Mustangs are sold every year than Ferrari's. That doesn't mean these people will pay more for the Mustang than the Ferrari, or that they wouldn't trade their Mustang for the Ferrari in a heartbeat. It's just that they can't afford the Ferrari, and the Ford Mustang is an upgrade over the Ford Pinto they've been driving for years.

 

Hart is your Mustang. Based on the season he's having, he is an "affordable" upgrade for a lot of teams, who are currently trotting out league-average players in LF or RF. Because we're mid-season, the supply is low, so it's a good time to "sell" him.

 

Prince is your Ferrari. There are not many players in baseball who are near his level, and those who are at his level are signing long-term deals worth well over $100MM. We can downplay him all we like, but what he's done so far in his career is amazing. Like the Ferrari, people put posters of him on their wall while driving a more affordable car/player. However, there are people out there who can afford Ferrari's, and are willing to pay for them. Maybe they just do it to have a nicer car than their neighbor (Yankees/Red Sox), or maybe they truly think that he is the one piece that will shoot them into the playoffs.

 

When teams say they'd rather have Hart than Fielder, what they're really saying is "for the price tag, I'd rather have Hart than Fielder." Think about it, if both players would sign exactly the same contract, and you could only sign one of them, which one would you sign? I think it's pretty obvious that Fielder is worth a lot more than Hart, it will just take the right shopper coming up and paying for him.

[brewmann04]

Let Just hope there a few Teams looking at Prince and Doug takes the best Offer to help the Crew in 2011 and Beyond.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Doug will deal Prince at the Winter Meetings this off-season where he will have more teams chasing him. Hopefully he can get us the best package in return for him at that point.

[Never Outhustled]

Doug will deal Prince at the Winter Meetings this off-season where he will have more teams chasing him. Hopefully he can get us the best package in return for him at that point.

 

Maybe, but the only strong position in Free Agency this next offseason will be 1B, wish could actually hurt the market for Fielder.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Doug will deal Prince at the Winter Meetings this off-season where he will have more teams chasing him. Hopefully he can get us the best package in return for him at that point.

 

Maybe, but the only strong position in Free Agency this next offseason will be 1B, wish could actually hurt the market for Fielder.

Dodgers, Giants, Rockies, Braves, Rangers, Angels, Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, and White Sox are the main teams I can think of that would likely be interested. Don't think there's that many good 1B/DH candidates available in free agency.

[wishicouldhit]

Doug will deal Prince at the Winter Meetings this off-season where he will have more teams chasing him. Hopefully he can get us the best package in return for him at that point.

 

Maybe, but the only strong position in Free Agency this next offseason will be 1B, wish could actually hurt the market for Fielder.

Dodgers, Giants, Rockies, Braves, Rangers, Angels, Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, and White Sox are the main teams I can think of that would likely be interested. Don't think there's that many good 1B/DH candidates available in free agency.

 

Dunn, Berkman, Konerko, Lee, Pena, and Ortiz (option). If any of the teams are looking for an impact bat the only safe bet maybe Dunn and Konerko. I doubt that the Yankees and Angels will be after any of these including prince

[Never Outhustled]

Doug will deal Prince at the Winter Meetings this off-season where he will have more teams chasing him. Hopefully he can get us the best package in return for him at that point.

 

Maybe, but the only strong position in Free Agency this next offseason will be 1B, wish could actually hurt the market for Fielder.

Dodgers, Giants, Rockies, Braves, Rangers, Angels, Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, and White Sox are the main teams I can think of that would likely be interested. Don't think there's that many good 1B/DH candidates available in free agency.

 

 

All those teams could use Fielder today, and since there's no free agent 1Bs available right now, his value will never be higher.

[wibadgers23]

Anybody have ESPN insider? Buster Olney wonders about a Fielder to Tampa trade. From mlbtr:

ESPN.com's Buster Olney wonders how the Rays would look if they obtained Prince Fielder for a package built around Wade Davis.

[Invader3K]

I have Insider, and he doesn't elaborate too much. Just basically speculating (which he admits) on how much better the Rays would look with Fielder in their lineup, and that the Brewers would want Davis as the centerpiece of a package. Nothing too exciting.

[paulmolitor4]

Any trade with the Rays for Fielder better start with them sending us Hellickson (not Davis).

[And That]

Hellickson, Davis and Moore for Fielder, Bush and half of Prince's remaining 2010 salary. Do it up.

[wishicouldhit]

paulmolitor4[/b]]Any trade with the Rays for Fielder better start with them sending us Hellickson (not Davis).

There is no chance that the Rays will trade Hellickson or Jennings. IMO if we can get 3 of the Rays top ten pitching prospects I would be more than pleased. Names like Moore, Colome, Barnese, Torres, and Mcgee show how much better they are at drafting pitchers then the brewers. 4/5 of the 2012 rotation could come from the combination of Davis/Graza and 2 of the other prospects with some of our own Odorizzi, Heckathorn, Scarpetta, Lasker, Peralta, and Rivas.

[paulmolitor4]

paulmolitor4[/b]]Any trade with the Rays for Fielder better start with them sending us Hellickson (not Davis).

There is no chance that the Rays will trade Hellickson or Jennings. IMO if we can get 3 of the Rays top ten pitching prospects I would be more than pleased. Names like Moore, Colome, Barnese, Torres, and Mcgee show how much better they are at drafting pitchers then the brewers. 4/5 of the 2012 rotation could come from the combination of Davis/Graza and 2 of the other prospects with some of our own Odorizzi, Heckathorn, Scarpetta, Lasker, Peralta, and Rivas.

I would say there is no chance they trade Jennings, but I wouldn't say there is no chance they trade Hellickson. They are going to need Jennings in the near future, but they could live without Hellickson due to their tremendous pitching depth. My guess is that a Fielder for Hellickson deal straight-up wouldn't go down, but if there were peripherals involved on both sides, I think something could possibly be worked out. I'm not saying that it's likely, but I think it could happen.

 

On the other hand, I misstated myself when I said any trade with Fielder would have to net us Hellickson. I could also get on board, if they are sending us 3 of their top 10 pitching prospects. Davis, Moore, Colome, McGee, Torres, and Barnese are all nice prospects. You could also add Kyle Lobstein to that group. I would also take 3B Matt Sweeney with 2 of those pitchers, but one of the pitchers would need to be Davis or Moore.