Weeks Fielding Re-visited (New article says hes awful)

[YoGo24]

According to the Fielding bible he is already at a -8 rating this season. He was solid last year but this year he has really struggled over the past few weeks. In the recent Jayson Stark artcile there is a section of it where an NL Scout suggests he should be moved to the outfield. Here is the excerpt

 

Weeks link? The Fielding Bible has hung a messy minus-8 rating on Rickie Weeks' defense over the first six weeks -- a definite turn in the wrong direction for a guy who earned a career-high plus-10 rating last year. So one NL scout says if he were running the Brewers, he'd put Weeks on the B.J. Upton head-for-the-outfield plan.

 

"I just don't think he's capable of playing in the middle of the infield, at the pace you have to play it," the scout said. "I think he's a lot like Upton. He'd be better off if you put him in the outfield, where the ball takes longer to get there. And it would help his offense, because I really think his defense is affecting his offense. That's the only way they're going to get their full value out of this guy, I think."

This has been mentioned a lot over the past few years but he really looks lost this year. Not necessarily the arm accuracy, but just getting to balls and making the relatively routine play. Weeks in CF maybe next year?

[sheethead]

Weeks to RF.

[YoGo24]

An outfield of Braun/Cain/Weeks would be pretty intriguing in my opinion. I mean athletically it would be tough to match. Weeks has a strong enough arm no doubt to play RF and there have been numerous examples of that. He is athletic enough to make the transition but he has said numerous times his position is 2B. Well if he cant play 2B and it is hurting us in the field, then managament really has to sit down with him and talk about it.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think the assertion that his defense is hurting his offense is pretty baseless. Weeks isn't as good a defender as he was showing last season, but imo he's also not bad enough to move off 2B. I believe he's right around average in terms of fielding value, as the mistakes he makes are mitigated to a certain extent by the fact that he can get to a lot more balls than many 2B. Moving him to the OF would cut into his value even more, so I don't get that idea.

 

Fwiw, his UZR/150 so far is 1.1, so just above average by that metric. That matches up much better with my own 'eye test' at this point than the fielding bible's rating.

[logan82]

I think we should shift Escobar to the outfield instead of Weeks. Escobar is -1 plus minus and -10.8 UZR/150.

 

It is WAY to early in the season to make anything out of defensive stats. If you had looked a little over a week ago, Weeks was around average in the field according to plus minus. To me this is just another scout coming in with certain expectations, seeing a few bad plays and saying "yup, just as I though, he sucks."

[Gobias Industries]

First off, he's probably not a good enough hitter to stick in a corner spot. I still have no idea what type of hitter he projects to be going forward, but we're probably pretty close to seeing his peak.

 

And as others have said, why are we going off this years small sample? Pretty meaningless. He had a terrible series defensively against the Braves, so I'm sure that really swayed it as well.

 

I highly doubt that after he's finally shown some improvement, the Brewers would move him. Maybe when he leaves, a team will want to try him in CF, but not now.

[monty57]

This year's sample size is as big as last year's sample size. Weeks has a lot of balls hit at him that "miss his glove," so he doesn't get an error, but should make. He's gotten better, but that's coming from a pretty low point. He seems better at the plays he has to range for, but is bad at high hops, which he kind of ducks his head away from. Randolph has definitely been a good mentor to him, and has really helped him slow the game down and cured his oddly erratic arm. I don't think he needs to be moved off of second, but he's not a good defender.

 

On that hig hop note, who is the coach that tells the Brewers to "get your eyes to the level of the ball?" I'd never heard that until Bill said a year or two ago that one of the coaches teaches it. It really seems to cause some awkward looking mis-plays and doesn't put the fielder in a very good position to throw to first.

[jjfanec]

First off, he's probably not a good enough hitter to stick in a corner spot. I still have no idea what type of hitter he projects to be going forward, but we're probably pretty close to seeing his peak.

 

And as others have said, why are we going off this years small sample? Pretty meaningless. He had a terrible series defensively against the Braves, so I'm sure that really swayed it as well.

 

I highly doubt that after he's finally shown some improvement, the Brewers would move him. Maybe when he leaves, a team will want to try him in CF, but not now.

I dont know why Weeks could not hit like a corner OF. His OPS would be 16th for NL outfielders. That seems good enough to me.

[topper09er]

I said at the end of last season we should resign Lopez and move Weeks to the OF. A lineup with Lopez, Weeks 1-2 would look very nice

[dadofandrew]

Considering Weeks has gone from weak on turning the DP to fast and accurate, and just threw out a runner at the plate the other day on a play only the strongest armed 2B would make, I'd say that borders on absurd, or is a tiny sample that will work itself out.

 

The defensive metrics have taken a huge hit on reliability of late, with Jason Bay being changed from awful to above average, and the most recent comments that a season of defense is too small a sample to care about, that you have to use 3 year averages (in effect, making it impossible to gauge a player until 450 games in the majors). I'm still of the opinion they exaggerate everything a bit, because if 90% of the players were between +10 runs and -10 runs a year, few would care. I know Adam Dunn is bad, and so is Brad Hawpe, but -30+ for a corner OF, when on average they have 1.5 chances a game, is beyond mathematical common sense.

[DHonks]

I've long wanted Weeks in CF as it's his natural position. Given the team's depth at 2b, and how we had Lopez and Counsell, I thought for sure a move to CF made sense.

[logan82]

This year's sample size is as big as last year's sample size. Weeks has a lot of balls hit at him that "miss his glove," so he doesn't get an error, but should make.

 

Missed plays count against him in the advanced metrics. Nobody is talking about or using fielding percentage here.

[joepepsi]

I'm trying to come around to the idea that defense is really important, but I just can't so much. Certainly it's important when a mistake is made in a close game, just like a walk can be. Certainly infield, and especially middle infield is more important than the OF corners. But it's hard to me to accept the gap between an average defensive 2B and an elite 2B is as wide as it is on offense.

[benji]

I am no expert and just a fan, but I will say that John Dewan's number always seem off to my eye. Granted I don't get to watch every team or have any insight as to plays that "should be made", but to my eye UZR has correlated more to what I believe to be true.

[owbc]

Yeah, he's bad, but we don't need any more Bill Hall experiments. There's no reason to believe he would be any better at outfield. Braun was terrible at 3B and now he's terrible at LF.

[PeaveyFury]

But IIRC, Hall had no experience in CF, while Weeks played there in college.

[monty57]

This year's sample size is as big as last year's sample size. Weeks has a lot of balls hit at him that "miss his glove," so he doesn't get an error, but should make.

 

Missed plays count against him in the advanced metrics. Nobody is talking about or using fielding percentage here.

I wasn't saying anything about a fielding metric... just that Weeks is not a good fielder. The first part of my response was just that some here have said Rickie is one of our better defensive players due to how good he was last year, but say it's too early to say if he's regressed. Neither sample is big enough to judge him.

 

He is much better at a lot of aspects of defense than he was, and he will probably continue to improve so I don't want to see him moved. He's not so bad that he kills our chances of winning (like Braun at 3B or Adam Dunn in LF), but if a "metric" says he's one of the best in the game I'll just have to assume that metric is flawed. He has a hard time judging bounces so they eat him up.

 

 

[jeffy]

But IIRC, Hall had no experience in CF, while Weeks played there in college.

So why did the Brewers put him at 2b?

[barrelman2010]

Please, enough with the Lopez references....

There was at least 2 reasons he was not brought back:

1 - Financial. They would not and could not pay what he would have been demanding for a new contract

2 - Clubhouse presence; there is a reason he had already been on umpteen different teams in his 9yr career

[monty57]

While I had heard he wasn't liked in some clubhouses, I think he fit in well with the Brewers. In fact, he trains in the offseason with Weeks and I think others on the team.

[BrewCrewForever]

But IIRC, Hall had no experience in CF, while Weeks played there in college.

He did? Wow, I had no idea Rickie played anything other than 2B.

 

I don't think his defense is bad at 2B. Sure he made a few errors lately that hurt us, but I think since last season he has looked much improved at 2B.

[rluzinski]

The defensive metrics have taken a huge hit on reliability of late, with Jason Bay being changed from awful to above average, and the most recent comments that a season of defense is too small a sample to care about, that you have to use 3 year averages (in effect, making it impossible to gauge a player until 450 games in the majors). I'm still of the opinion they exaggerate everything a bit, because if 90% of the players were between +10 runs and -10 runs a year, few would care. I know Adam Dunn is bad, and so is Brad Hawpe, but -30+ for a corner OF, when on average they have 1.5 chances a game, is beyond mathematical common sense.

A player's defensive numbers can jump around so much from year to year for the exact reason you allude to; the chances/season are fairly limited. A year of defensive stats is like 200 PA worth of offensive stats. It's like calling into question OPS, because a batter hits .735, .880 and .750 in successive 200 PA samples. It's just the way it is.

 

I don't understand your comment about how they exaggerate things. You seem to be implying that the true spread in defensive talent should be larger than what defensive stats suggest?

 

And to understand how a player can be -30 for a season, read these:

 

http://www.baseballthinkf...n/lichtman_2003-03-14_0/

 

http://www.baseballthinkf...n/lichtman_2003-03-21_0/

 

http://www.insidethebook....earch_assistant_speak/#3

[logan82]

This year's sample size is as big as last year's sample size. Weeks has a lot of balls hit at him that "miss his glove," so he doesn't get an error, but should make.

 

Missed plays count against him in the advanced metrics. Nobody is talking about or using fielding percentage here.

I wasn't saying anything about a fielding metric... just that Weeks is not a good fielder. The first part of my response was just that some here have said Rickie is one of our better defensive players due to how good he was last year, but say it's too early to say if he's regressed. Neither sample is big enough to judge him.

I wasn't responding to your post specifically. I will say Weeks is one of our best defenders but only because most of our other defenders are so poor. Fielder, Edmonds(in CF), Braun, Hart, McGehee, and Zaun are probaly about average at best and most likely below average. Even Escobar is probably below average until he gets more consistent. I think right now, he is about average. Gomez is the only above average defender we have and he doesn't play much. I thought our defense would be about average but I am thinking I overestimated our defense.

[JoeHova]

... and the most recent comments that a season of defense is too small a sample to care about, that you have to use 3 year averages (in effect, making it impossible to gauge a player until 450 games in the majors).

This isn't a new thing. mgl has been saying that since he first released UZR for public consumption.

 

I do agree that the vast swings the different data sets cause in UZR have highlighted that defensive stats should be taken with a grain of salt. Of course, mgl would retort that the same is true of offensive stats, and he's right.

[JJHardy7]

I think the assertion that his defense is hurting his offense is pretty baseless. Weeks isn't as good a defender as he was showing last season, but imo he's also not bad enough to move off 2B. I believe he's right around average in terms of fielding value, as the mistakes he makes are mitigated to a certain extent by the fact that he can get to a lot more balls than many 2B. Moving him to the OF would cut into his value even more, so I don't get that idea.

 

I agree. I'm also the same person that wanted Braun to try and stick at 3B. The way I see it (and I'm not a metrics guy, but appreciate the value) is that if you take into account the players offense and defense to composite some type of overall metric (which I'm sure exists) you get the true value. Why did I want Braun to try to stick at 3B? If he can put up those numbers and improve his defense, he'd be an absolute stud at 3B. I understand that may not have worked. I get that. I think the same is somewhat true with Weeks. If his bat rakes, he's going to have much more value at 2B for the Brewers than in the OF. I guess that is my main point with this kind of stuff. I think it is much easier to find a corner OF that can slug than find some other positions that can slug. That changes their true value to the team IMO.

 

I still think Weeks can stick at 2B. CF would be interesting, but I don't want Weeks at a corner OF spot just quite yet. I also think this could boil down to his next contract and the such. We had a rather large thread about his value, but if Weeks doesn't want to play OF and the Brewers want him to that thread could be a moot point for the Brewers.

 

I understand the craze on defense lately and all that kind of stuff, but I guess I just don't buy into all the hype quite yet. Ideally you have a team that is awesome at both, but at the same time that isn't realistic. I know the Mariners were praised for all their upgrades on defense and such, but so far that doesn't really seem to matter. I think the key is for any team (especially the Brewers right now) is to figure out where a guy fits the best. Gamel has improved on defense, but has some questions and I've heard/read that Lawrie may have issues too. We need to figure out where these guys fit into the play. Again, I'm not saying Braun should be at 3B or Weeks is at 2B forever...I am saying you have to consider the value they bring to their defensive position.