anyone else seeing big changes ahead? Latest: Mark A says Melvin is going to be here a long time, Macha will not be fired Monday

[strawbossisevil]

After this year the results are going to look below average, rather than just average.

 

You know the Brewers ending record already?

Of course he does. Just as he already knows that Hoffman will not be able to be an effective pitcher for the rest of the season. Sheethead, you really should start marketing that time machine technology, you could make a heap of money!

[sheethead]

After this year the results are going to look below average, rather than just average.

 

You know the Brewers ending record already?

Yes. It was fuzzy for a while, but the record became very clear after Attanasio's comments last week.

[Roscoe Chill]

Are you guys kidding me? You're going to accuse sheethead of acting as if he knows what the final record is going to be? You can look at like three posts on this site on any given topic and someone uses their projections, or someone else's projections to argue that this team was only going to win X games anyway, so why get upset about it? It's even all over this thread. "Your expectations are way too high." "This team is rebuilding, they are not supposed to win this many games." Quite frankly, I wonder why people even post on brewerfan.net the way they spin what happens in to being right on target etc. In fact, I'm not sure why some even follow the Brewers according to some of the comments. It's a lost cause and we all should know that. But perhaps in 2018 the magic will happen!

 

So, I'll go ahead and agree with sheethead and others and say, that yes, the number of wins is not going to be very good this year. And when it IS all said and done, I'm sure those of you who are trying to rip sheethead about knowing what the future holds will say that X number of wins that the Brewers did have was exactly where you had them pegged all along. It's comical.

[paul253]

Of course he does. Just as he already knows that Hoffman will not

be able to be an effective pitcher for the rest of the season.

Sheethead, you really should start marketing that time machine

technology, you could make a heap of money!

 

It's a long season obviously but a lot of guys are going to have to improve in order for this to be considered a success. Based on the teams play so far, it's hard to envision this happening. The fact is, I disagree with a lot of people in that I don't think this team ever was very good. They had a good run in 2008, but quite frankly were lucky to make the playoffs and without the play of one of the better pitchers in baseball it wouldn't have been close. For the enormous talent they've had on offense the past few years, they've never had the pitching to go with it. And unfortunately with the way the team is set up now it's hard to see them having the pitching any sooner than 2-3 years. Unless Prince Fielder is traded for a very good young pitcher, which he could be I suppose, it's hard to imagine our rotation getting significantly better before 2012 or 2013 when we should finally have some of our own prospects pitching.

[strawbossisevil]

Of course he does. Just as he already knows that Hoffman will not

be able to be an effective pitcher for the rest of the season.

Sheethead, you really should start marketing that time machine

technology, you could make a heap of money!

 

It's a long season obviously but a lot of guys are going to have to improve in order for this to be considered a success. Based on the teams play so far, it's hard to envision this happening. The fact is, I disagree with a lot of people in that I don't think this team ever was very good. They had a good run in 2008, but quite frankly were lucky to make the playoffs and without the play of one of the better pitchers in baseball it wouldn't have been close. For the enormous talent they've had on offense the past few years, they've never had the pitching to go with it. And unfortunately with the way the team is set up now it's hard to see them having the pitching any sooner than 2-3 years. Unless Prince Fielder is traded for a very good young pitcher, which he could be I suppose, it's hard to imagine our rotation getting significantly better before 2012 or 2013 when we should finally have some of our own prospects pitching.

I don't think it's out of the question that they play at/around .500 the rest of the way. I think that's where their true talent level falls. Fielder hasn't been hitting anywhere near his talent level. And I don't think our starting pitching will continue to put up below replacement level results. It's far more likely that many of their starters will at least come back to replacement level numbers.

The Brewers had, what was it, a 6 game lead in the wild card going into the final month of the season in 2008. They almost chocked it away, but they were in the drivers seat as far as getting a playoff spot was concerned. Any time a team makes the playoffs, though, a bit of luck is going to be involved, but it was a talented team and to just wave away their playoff run as "luck" isn't being entirely fair to them. You are right though, that they wouldn't have made it without Sabathia, he was a huge pickup.

You can't say they NEVER had the pitching to go with the offense. 2008 they had very great pitching, and they were a Ben Sheets injury away from having a stacked playoff rotation. Instead the Brewers started Suppan in the playoffs with the expected result.

I think most people would agree with you, that this season and next are likely not going to be ones that the Brewers are going to field a playoff team (unless they really get a good deal for Fielder). Since the Brewers starting rotation began to collapse this season, I've been saying that 2012 is going to be the start of another run at the playoffs as that should be the year that our top pitching prospects start having an impact at the big league level. It is unrealistic to expect that a small market team like the Brewers will be able to make a playoff run every season, and unfortunately I think that is an expectation that many, like Sheethead, expect.

I don't think it is ridiculous to point out where posters have unrealistic expectations of their team, their GM, and the players.

 

[sheethead]

I don't think it's out of the question that they play at/around .500 the rest of the way.

 

You're not being honest here. This team has shown no inclination they will be able to play .500 ball this year, let alone over the course of four months.

 

BTW, if they play .500 the rest of the way, that is a 76-86 record, five games better than they are actually going to finish.

[strawbossisevil]

Quite frankly, I wonder why people even post on brewerfan.net the way they spin what happens in to being right on target etc. In fact, I'm not sure why some even follow the Brewers according to some of the comments. It's a lost cause and we all should know that. But perhaps in 2018 the magic will happen!

Just because we enjoy following a team doesn't mean we need to have blind optimism about what to expect from them. I am a fan of the team whether they are making a playoff run, or whether they are in the midst of a rebuild.

I don't think it negates someone's "fanhood" if they approach the team with realistic expectations of what to expect in the future. That doesn't mean we don't want to see the team succeed, of course we do. We just aren't going to get all bent out of shape when they aren't able to compete on the same level as the Yankees every season. Approaching the team with the realistic approach that they likely will only make the playoffs once every 4 or 5 seasons, and may only make the World Series two or three times during my lifetime doesn't mean that I'm less of a fan. I still cheer for the team even if logically and realistically the deck is stacked against them.

 

[sheethead]

I don't think it is ridiculous to point out where posters have unrealistic expectations of their team, their GM, and the players.

 

Its not ridiculous if its actually true.

[TooLiveBrew]

BTW, if they play .500 the rest of the way, that is a 76-86 record, five games better than they are actually going to finish.

 

A 71-91 record (.438 W%) is your prediction? I sure hope they can beat that. Barely getting past 70 wins would just be depressing.

[sheethead]

Barely getting past 70 wins would just be depressing.

 

Yes, yes it is.

[strawbossisevil]

I don't think it's out of the question that they play at/around .500 the rest of the way.

 

You're not being honest here. This team has shown no inclination they will be able to play .500 ball this year, let alone over the course of four months.

 

BTW, if they play .500 the rest of the way, that is a 76-86 record, five games better than they are actually going to finish.

If you think that the pitcher in Davis' slot is going to continue to put up a 7 ERA. I might agree with you that I'm being dishonest.

If you think that Wolf is going to continue to have an ERA over 5 (where it was at before last night). I might agree with you...

If you think that Hoffman or whoever pitches as the Brewers closer is going to put up an ERA over 12. I might agree with you....

If you think that Hawkins or whoever pitches in his role is going to put up an ERA over 9. I might agree with you...

If you think that Fielder is going to continue to OPS in the low .800s. I might agree with you that I'm being dishonest.

But, when stat minded people like Russ are saying that .500 baseball going forward is not unrealistic, I tend to agree with him and the statistical thought he puts into his arguments over someone who makes his predictions on pure emotion.

You could be right that they finish 5 games under .500 going forward. But most people with a statistical background in baseball figured the Brewers would be around a .500+ team going into the season. And I don't think that it is entirely unrealistic that they could meet that level going forward.

If they trade Fielder at the deadline, however, I'll probably agree with you that they'll likely finish slightly below .500 going forward.

 

[And That]

BTW, if they play .500 the rest of the way, that is a 76-86 record, five games better than they are actually going to finish.

Do you also do Powerball?

[sheethead]

If you think that Wolf is going to continue to have an ERA over 5 (where it was at before last night).

 

what is it now? Why use before his last start? And why argue ERA? Hasn't it been shown here numerous times that ERA is a near worthless metric on which to judge performance for a quarter season?

 

But most people with a statistical background in baseball figured the Brewers would be around a .500+ team going into the season.

 

I do enjoy how this is always what your arguments boil down to... other people's opinions.

[sheethead]

Do you also do Powerball?

 

I have the numbers, but the date is fuzzy. I just keep playing them.

[strawbossisevil]

If you think that Wolf is going to continue to have an ERA over 5 (where it was at before last night).

 

what is it now? Why use before his last start? And why argue ERA? Hasn't it been shown here numerous times that ERA is a near worthless metric on which to judge performance for a quarter season?

 

But most people with a statistical background in baseball figured the Brewers would be around a .500+ team going into the season.

 

I do enjoy how this is always what your arguments boil down to... other people's opinions.

It's because these people base their opinions on statistics. And they do a much better job at predicting a team's future success than a random poster who uses no statistical analysis whatsoever to arrive at his conclusions, but rather bases his entire prediction on gut feeling and emotion. If given the choice over who to trust to provide an accurate assessment of what to expect, I'll go with the statistically based experts every time.

[TooLiveBrew]

Barely getting past 70 wins would just be depressing.

 

Yes, yes it is.

I really hope they exceed your prediction, because I sure don't want to have to read your posts about how right you were. You're doing it now, and you don't even know yet. I have no problem with differences of opinion, but this thread has gotten really hard to read. I guess I just need to drop out.

[sheethead]

It's because these people base their opinions on statistics.

 

Which would hold all the weight if the games were played on paper or a computer.

 

And they do a much better job at predicting a team's future success than a random poster who uses no statistical analysis whatsoever to arrive at his conclusions, but rather bases his entire prediction on gut feeling and emotion.

 

If you are implying this is what I am doing, then you would be about 35% right, which is an F in most public schools.

 

I guess I just need to drop out.

 

The wisest thing to do, as ultimately there will be no big changes

coming any time soon. /end scene

[Roscoe Chill]

Just because we enjoy following a team doesn't mean we need to have

blind optimism about what to expect from them. I am a fan of the team

whether they are making a playoff run, or whether they are in the midst

of a rebuild.

I don't think it negates someone's

"fanhood" if they approach the team with realistic expectations of what

to expect in the future. That doesn't mean we don't want to see the

team succeed, of course we do. We just aren't going to get all bent

out of shape when they aren't able to compete on the same level as the

Yankees every season. Approaching the team with the realistic approach

that they likely will only make the playoffs once every 4 or 5 seasons,

and may only make the World Series two or three times during my

lifetime doesn't mean that I'm less of a fan. I still cheer for the

team even if logically and realistically the deck is stacked against

them.

 

Only it's not "blind optimism" that people have. I'm really not going to rehash the solid arguments from some people. And I will say that I don't expect them to be in the playoffs every year. However, being obviously out of it (spare the mathematical possibilities please) by the middle of May is also not what I had in mind.

 

I missed the memo where the Brewers are "rebuilding" again. There was a time when I understood that they were rebuilding. That was before Prince Fielder, before Ryan Braun. Now I don't see them rebuilding. I see them missing the window they had. I seem them chasing win number 78 with bad personnel decisions (was $2M for Jody Gerut even close to necessary?) instead of 72 with a roster full of possible future building blocks.

 

Being realistic has nothing to do with people not liking how the Brewers have evolved over the last two or three years. I think the rebuilding talk is a coping mechanism for those people who think they're being realistic.

 

They are not in a rebuilding mode right now. If you think they are, then I guess you are right to a point, but then you fail to mention that EVERY team save a few is ALWAYS rebuilding. Some just happen to stay in contention due to luck I guess?

 

As for getting "bent out of shape" because they aren't comparable to the Yankees every year, I say I'm not bent out of shape at all. Again, the Brewers crashed and burned in mid May. MID MAY!!! Right now they're one of the worst five or six teams in baseball. I'm not bent out of shape at all. I'm apathetic. And that's sad. One thing I am not is satisfied or accepting because there are supposedly some A pitchers that are going to start helping win Major League games in 2012. When 2012 gets here the same people will tell us that we need to wait for those pitchers to get seasoned, so then it will be 2014.

 

Blind optimism? No way. On the other side of the coin, I think the free passes for personnel decisions gone wrong is just odd.

[strawbossisevil]

It's because these people base their opinions on statistics.

 

Which would hold all the weight if the games were played on paper or a computer.

Right, the statistical route isn't capable of producing an exact record. It merely gleans data from the past 100 years and gives suggestions on what is most likely to be expected given a certain level of expected performance. You could entirely be right in this instance, however in the long run the statistical model is going to be correct on a more frequent basis.

And they do a much better job at predicting a team's future success than a random poster who uses no statistical analysis whatsoever to arrive at his conclusions, but rather bases his entire prediction on gut feeling and emotion.

 

If you are implying this is what I am doing, then you would be about 35% right, which is an F in most public schools.

You haven't provided any evidence to the contrary. I thought in school they taught people to give evidence of their work http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif. I think it's called supporting a thesis.

[sheethead]

however in the long run the statistical model is going to be correct on a more frequent basis.

 

I think the burden of proving this to be true is on you here.

 

I thought in school they taught people to give evidence of

their work . I think it's called supporting a thesis.

 

I don't have the energy to show you all the analysis, data, and muscle

that went into my opinion (which was presented as fact - but who doesn't

do that nowadays). I'll just point you to the 2009 Milwaukee Brewers

pitching, then to the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers pitching, and Macha's

record as the Milwaukee Brewers manager. That's where I started. Not

in 2006 or 2008 or 2001. I just looked at last year and this year, ages

of players, factored out best years and worst years, looked at

regression patterns, contract amounts (believe it or not, the more you

make the worse you do on average - could have a lot to do with older

vets getting their due from unsuspecting GMs, save a few special

players), how much I like some of them, add in a bit of fear factor and

luck. The rest is a secret.

[strawbossisevil]

however in the long run the statistical model is going to be correct on a more frequent basis.

 

I think the burden of proving this to be true is on you here.

Are you really saying your "random guess" as to what to expect record wise is more likely to be accurate than 100+ of statistical data? It's like guessing how many times heads is going to come up when I flip a coin 10 times. I could say "6" and I could be right. But in the long run, historical data and statistics suggest that if I flip the coin 10 times, the most likely occurrence is that heads will come up 5 times.

It's common sense that objective statistics based on historical data will provide a more accurate result than me making a guess without the support of statistics.

 

[sheethead]

historical data and statistics suggest that if I flip the coin 10 times,

the most likely occurrence is that heads will come up 5 times.

 

This is so far off topic now, but its fun. Historical data has nothing to do with the outcome of a coin flip.

 

It's common sense that objective statistics based on historical data will provide a more accurate result than me making a guess without the support of statistics.

 

That doesn't sound like a fact laden thesis explanation to me http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[strawbossisevil]

Only it's not "blind optimism" that people have. I'm really not going to rehash the solid arguments from some people. And I will say that I don't expect them to be in the playoffs every year. However, being obviously out of it (spare the mathematical possibilities please) by the middle of May is also not what I had in mind.

 

I missed the memo where the Brewers are "rebuilding" again. There was a time when I understood that they were rebuilding. That was before Prince Fielder, before Ryan Braun. Now I don't see them rebuilding. I see them missing the window they had. I seem them chasing win number 78 with bad personnel decisions (was $2M for Jody Gerut even close to necessary?) instead of 72 with a roster full of possible future building blocks.

You are right, that they didn't head into the season "rebuilding". They were likely giving it one last chance with the Braun/Fielder tandom. But their margin for error entering the season was thin, and with basically every player in the rotation and bullpen underperforming their expected numbers to begin the season, that opportunity to be competitive this year went with it. At this point, with the stumble happening right out of the gate, it's time to begin the rebuilding effort. That would include trading Fielder and hopefully gear up for another go in 2012.

Being realistic has nothing to do with people not liking how the Brewers have evolved over the last two or three years. I think the rebuilding talk is a coping mechanism for those people who think they're being realistic. They are not in a rebuilding mode right now. If you think they are, then I guess you are right to a point, but then you fail to mention that EVERY team save a few is ALWAYS rebuilding. Some just happen to stay in contention due to luck I guess? As for getting "bent out of shape" because they aren't comparable to the Yankees every year, I say I'm not bent out of shape at all. Again, the Brewers crashed and burned in mid May. MID MAY!!! Right now they're one of the worst five or six teams in baseball.

They are one of the worst teams in baseball because they have a significant portion of their players underperforming what anyone reasonably could have expected from them. Do we blame Melvin that Hoffman has a 12 ERA? Who, if anyone, could have predicted that? Or that Davis had a 7 ERA? Or that Hawkins has a 9 ERA? Their talent level this season is probably that of a middle of the road team, a few lucky breaks and they could have been in position for a playoff run, but luck went the other way for them to this point of the season. Some years the breaks go your way, some years they don't. This year the breaks have been going against the Brewers. And blaming Brewers management for epically unexpected performances from players who were counted on to carry this team doesn't seem fair. No expert, no Brewerfan commentator ever imagined that Hoffman, Davis, Wolf, Hawkins, even Bush...would struggle so horribly out of the gate. To say that the GM should have seen these type of performances coming is being wholly unrealistic.

 

Perhaps people thought Davis could have an ERA in the high 4s/low 5s. But no one could have predicted an ERA over 7.

Perhaps people could have thought that Hoffman would stumble to an ERA in the 4s. But no would would have predicted an ERA over 12.

Perhaps people could have predicted Wolf to struggle to an ERA in the low 4s. But few expected his first month and a half to include an ERA over 5.

Perhaps people thought that Hawkins would struggle and have an ERA in the 4 range. But no one would have predicted an ERA over 9.

 

If no one could have predicted these types of results even thinking worst case scenario. How can we fault our GM when these players all performed beyond anyone's worst expectations? He brought in players who had a history of performing at much higher levels, and none of them have come even close to what should have been reasonably expected of them by anyone familiar with baseball.

[sheethead]

Do we blame Melvin that Hoffman has a 12 ERA? Who, if anyone, could have predicted that?

 

That's where the gut feeling part of the equation comes in. With each passing year, counting on, much less paying $8M, a 40+ year-old soft tossing reliever to be your closer is like playing Russian roulette, despite how the previous 100+ years of data are telling you otherwise.

[brewtank34]

So....if the Brewers lose today and lose the series against the worst team in baseball at Home....does that require a revisit to idea of Something Must Change? I think so.