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anyone else seeing big changes ahead? Latest: Mark A says Melvin is going to be here a long time, Macha will not be fired Monday


BREWCREW5

Aside from your condescending tone, this is what I take issue with most. I'd like to know who the other GMs are with a track record of turning out guys off the waiver wire or as MiLB free agents as effectively as Melvin.

 

If you find condescending tone, it must be how you read it. Maybe you are predisposed to find an alternate opinion as condescending? There's no condescending tone. If there is any tone trying to be displayed, it's frustration. .377 baseball is frustration. .377 baseball for $90M and nearly 3.1M butts in the seats sustained over a few season is frustration. One playoff season because of a one game advantage over the Mets on a flukey Helms HR and the Cubs starting Wells in game 162 and an average of .460 baseball (or whatever it is over the other 7 seasons) is frustration. I didn't say the arguments were stupid or otherwise, I just mentioned that they were unconvincing. Again, if nugget is defined as 1-2 seasons of above-average baseball then I shouldn't have to look to far to find players that other GM's have found similiar to the list that was submitted, Matt Wise, Derek Turnbow, Dan Kolb? The reason these nuggets seem so valuable is because of the load they had to carry because nothing else was in place. Again, what is a few nuggets when there are no french fries or soft drink? Is Jocketty a draft genius because he found a nugget in Pujols at 403 overall? Melvin hasn't even come close to finding a nugget like that, that late in the draft, via waiver wire, rule 5, etc.

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If you find condescending tone, it must be how you read it. Maybe you are predisposed to find an alternate opinion as condescending? There's no condescending tone. If there is any tone trying to be displayed, it's frustration.

 

Or maybe I read, "Gee golly" & "Aww shucks"as condescending, like I expect others might. Or maybe you're right, if someone disagrees with me, I assume condescension. I do that all the time.

 

 

The reason these nuggets seem so valuable is because of the load they had to carry because nothing else was in place.

 

I understand this point, but I believe he's done yeoman's work in that regard, especially with his more recent finds -- McGehee, Kottaras, Coffey, Axford, & Narveson. Those 5 guys alone have saved & will save millions of dollars in payroll in recent/coming seasons, and in each case they are good producers at their positions (I'm assuming Axford will have success... certainly could be wrong there), not just roster filler. In addition, his job of turning Pods into (essentially) Carlos Lee was fantastic. I'll ask you again if you can produce another GM with as much success at claiming guys off the waiver wire &/or MiLB free agency, instead of pointing to the flukiest draft pick in a long, long time in Pujols (and, yes, I do think Jocketty should rightfully garner praise for that brilliant pick).

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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Johan Santana, Josh Hamilton, Dan Uggla, and Shane Victorino were Rule 5 picks. Waiver claims are harder to dig up, but Melvin's top Rule 5 pick to date is... Adam Stern?

 

In researching Turnbow (Melvin waiver pick-up for 2005 season), I found some info I did not know. In October 2003, Turnbow became the first major league player to test positive for a banned steroid. The positive test came during tryouts for USA Baseball's Olympic qualifying team. He did not face sanctions from Major League Baseball, because they did not begin testing for or penalizing steroid use until the 2004 season. He was banned for two years from international competition.

 

I liked lcbj68c's post. Its strongly represents the way I feel about Melvin and the contrasting opinions of him.

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I'll ask you again if you can produce another GM with as much success at claiming guys off the waiver wire &/or MiLB free agency

 

I can't. To be honest, I don't know that I follow other teams well enough to go out and do that. I don't know that it is worth it. Because, as my opinion goes, this argument is an unconvincing one to keep Doug Melvin any further. Because he does this one thing better than other GM's he should be kept? I don't even know that these nuggets are worthwhile. We have to remember that these nuggets were often times "made nuggets", because of something else that failed. Is that something we should be hanging our hat on?

 

McGehee was made available because of Ramirez blocking his path. He got his shot because Gamel has failed/injured. McGehee was not the first option.

Kottaras was acquired as a backup catcher. Melvin wasn't so sure about him, that he brought in 5 catchers to compete for this job.

Narveson has gotten his shot, because the original plan for 11 million dollars has failed so miserably. Is this something we want to hang our hat on?

 

Again, Melvin does do this very well. I've always given him that. It's just not a convincing argument to keep him around. Look, there's a couple things that my ex-girlfriends have done really well, but if they don't do the meat and potatoes things well, then what is the point of keep them? That's my lame attempt at humor, but it's how I approach this, "He finds nuggets" argument. It's time to go in another direction. A .377 winning percentage with a $90M payroll is embarassing. A plate full of nuggets does not a meal make?

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The year the Cubs won 97 games, Hendry picked Edmonds up off waivers when everyone thought he was done and he drastically improved their CF offensive hole. Hendry is rightfully regarded as one of the worst GMs in baseball, but he mined a nugget off waivers when he needed to.

 

If Axford, Estrada, and Kottaras can be used as an example of great nuggets after this small a sample, I think Tampa's GM deserves equal credit for picking up Blalock and dumping Burrell - wasn't Blalock a scrap heap sort of acquisition?

 

I don't think it's saying much to have a GM be great at finding good players off waivers - I think that speaks more to the market and budget a particular GM is working with. Large market teams hardly use waivers because they have the resources to acquire players in high demand. I give Melvin props for finding the nuggets he has over the years, but there are few GMs who have to use MiLB free agency/waivers to consistently fill out their major league roster. Many of the other GM's potential "nuggets" are currently playing in AAA and serving as insurance should the major league team need depth for injuries. Also, after 8 years with the Brewers, does it really speak well of Melvin that he needs to continue acquiring other teams' fodder for his major league roster when 8 years is plenty of time to build quality depth throughout an organization? The reason he's recently had to use the players he's scanned waivers for is because of the bad free agent deals he's made that have opened huge holes on the big league roster (Hall could/should still be at 3rd/CF, Riske is paid like an elite setup guy, Suppan is just an organizational anchor at this point, Hoffman and Davis' deals have been anything but good to this point).

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As far as Friedman goes, obviously I think he's the best GM in the game, but there are plenty of other people out there who aren't getting their due, there's no way that Melvin or Jack Z are better GMs than Dan O'Dowd or Jon Daniels for example. Walt Jocketty would be a top 10 GM if he hadn't hired the worst possible manager for young pitching, Andy McPhail is top 10 GM at this time, he's positioned Baltimore for future success.
Jocketty and Friedman have been very successful GMs. Dan O'Dowd's Rockies' have a career 769-852 entering this season. This is his 12th season. 8 of his previous 11 seasons the Rockies had losing records.

 

Jon Dainels first year he traded Alfonso Soriano, for, um,not much. He signed innings eater Kevin Millwood (hello Doug Melvin!), and traded Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka (ouch!). That must be one of the worst trades of the millennium. He also engineered the Carlos Lee trade, which turned successful for him thanks to Nelson Cruz.

 

His next season he turned John Danks into Brandon McCarthy. Ooh, the 2nd worst trade of the millennium. His Volquez for Hamilton trade is debatable.

 

The Texeira trade was an excellent move. I'm not ready to say Daniels is a genius. Lots of his success is based on a farm system built by his predecessor, John Hart. Their best starting pitchers this year are C.J Wilson and Colby Lewis. Both drafted by *gasp* Doug Melvin!

 

The Orioles are horrible. They have some good young pitching, some of which MacPhail acquired, some that was already in the organization. But it's mostly tied to 5-6 top arms; there's not a lot of depth. They have no hitting prospects in the minors. Their AA roster is full of guys in their mid-20s, hardly prospect age for that level. I think Oriole fans would hesitate to put MacPhail in their Top 10 GM list at this point.

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I believe it was Fan Graphs that did a post about the top 5 GM's in the game. Doug Melvin was their #5. Only guys ahead of him were Friedman, Epstein, Cashman and someone else, can't think of them right now.
Of course, these are all opinions, but

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alex-remington/ranking-baseballs-general_b_160456.html[/url] 3rd Tier, Somwhere between 9 and 14. (2010)

http://baseball.suite101.com/article.cfm/top_five_baseball_general_managers Not in the top 5 (2008)

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/107859-major-league-baseballs-30-general-managers-whos-the-best Had him 3rd. (2008)

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/tim_marchman/03/03/gm.rankings/index.html?eref=sihp Has him 6th (2010)

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I have been keeping up with this thread pretty intensely and the one argument that is really bothering me is this:

 

"The Brewers made a conscious decision to bring the team back to a competitive state through hitting, now they are shifting the attention towards pitching"

 

This is very troubling to me. What hitters do we have on this team that would be considered long term pieces? As far as I am concerned, Braun and McGehee look to be the only ones. Hart is inconsistent and, Fielder will be gone soon, Weeks is now batting below .240 (this year could end up being the 4th time in 6 seasons that he will have done this), and who really knows what we have with Gomez or Escobar at this point.

 

If it is going to take 3 years before we have some legitimate starting pitching coming, I am afraid that we may not having enough hitting around to be competitive at that time.

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lcbj68c's post reminded me of a story I read on my MLB app on my phone the other day. It was an article reviewing the draft history of the MLB teams for the last 10 years. To no one's surprise it mentioned the Brewers were one of if not the best at aquiring hitters but also mentioned they were among the bottom in drafting pitchers putting their overall ranking as rather mediocre. It went on to talk about the top teams having success in balancing out the two and who those teams were. I'll see if I can find the story again to fine a link on the internet.
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If you find condescending tone, it must be how you read it. Maybe you are predisposed to find an alternate opinion as condescending?

 

I pretty much felt much of that post was pretty condescending as well. I completely disagree with a lot of what TheCrew07 has to say much of the time and I don't find his posts condescending, just wrong.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

 

This is very troubling to me. What hitters do we have on this team that

would be considered long term pieces? As far as I am concerned, Braun

and McGehee look to be the only ones. Hart is inconsistent and, Fielder

will be gone soon, Weeks is now batting below .240 (this year could end

up being the 4th time in 6 seasons that he will have done this), and

who really knows what we have with Gomez or Escobar at this point.


If it is going to take 3 years before we have some legitimate starting

pitching coming, I am afraid that we may not having enough hitting

around to be competitive at that time.

 

 

You mentioned Escobar and we also have Gamel, Lawrie, Lucroy and Cain to name a few off the top of my head. These guys should all be ready by 2011 at the latest. As for pitching, we should have some good arms coming up each of the next 2 years.

Fan is short for fanatic.

I blame Wang.

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You mentioned Escobar and we also have Gamel, Lawrie, Lucroy and Cain to name a few off the top of my head. These guys should all be ready by 2011 at the latest. As for pitching, we should have some good arms coming up each of the next 2 years.

 

So, that batch of players is better than what we have now?

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I doubt they are better than what we have now. But right now, we have one of the best offenses in all of baseball. If your offensive production drops a little and our pitching gets better, we should become more balanced and be able to win more games.
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I doubt they are better than what we have now. But right now, we have one of the best offenses in all of baseball. If your offensive production drops a little and our pitching gets better, we should become more balanced and be able to win more games.

 

Pretty close. We don't need them to be as good. He was lamenting long term hitting. We have pretty decent prospects for long term hitting.

 

 

So, it is your opinion that we are waiting on 2012 and that Melvin will come out smelling pretty good?

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So, it is your opinion that we are waiting on 2012 and that Melvin will come out smelling pretty good?

 

It depends on a lot of factors.

 

What do they do with Prince? What do we get for him in trade?

 

Do we resign Weeks to a long term deal?

 

What do we do with Hart? Does he continue to perform at this level?

 

Can the following players perform consistently on a major league level?

 

Gamel, Lucroy, Lawrie, Parra, Narveson, Gomez, Escobar, Capuano, Rivas, Axford, Braddock, Estrada, Rogers, Heether, Gindl, Wheeler, Cain, Odorizzi

 

I think the talent is still there for this team. I don't think losing Prince will be the end of the world. This year and next are going to be very interesting for the Brewers entire system, and I trust Melvin to be the guy to get us through it based on his previous body of work, improving this team from bottom feeder to playoff contenders.

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This year and next are going to be very interesting for the Brewers entire system, and I trust Melvin to be the guy to get us through it based on his previous body of work, improving this team from bottom feeder to playoff contenders.

 

So why did we spend $90M+ to win at a .377 clip? If we are in a mini-rebuilding cycle and 2012 is the goal, why did we spend $90M+ on this season? I guess that's my problem.

 

The real answer is that DM isn't playing for 2012, like you suggest. He honestly thought that he would get $90M+ worth of wins for his 90M dollars spent. This is not a guy that I trust anymore. Because either way you slice it, it's bad roster management. If you're going to spend $90M+ and think you are going for it, why assemble what he did with that money. And if you aren't going for it and are looking to 2012 when your farm grown pitching gets here, then why in the heck are you spending $90M dollars?

 

I respect your loyalty and your sense of appreciation for what Melvin has done (bottom feeder to contender). Though I'd argue that most new GM's get their jobs because their teams are at the bottom and contender was something I really only felt we were in 2007 & 2008. Look, I had the biggest thrill of my life, to be on the field when the Brewers clinched the Wild Card, shook DM's hand within minutes as we in the Brewers family celebrated returning to the post-season.... and I probably could have called him Jesus at that moment and believed it. So it's not like I hate the man, I've given his due when deserved. When you say total body of work, that's really where it starts to hit home. If 2012 is the next "run", then you are looking at probably two winning seasons and 1 playoff win in 10 years. I just expect a little more with the resources that he has had. I would have felt much better about DM if he would have just spent $60M or so and went with a lot more youth to get that .377 and not continued to make more of the same mistakes.

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This year and next are going to be very interesting for the Brewers entire system, and I trust Melvin to be the guy to get us through it based on his previous body of work, improving this team from bottom feeder to playoff contenders.

 

So why did we spend $90M+ to win at a .377 clip? If we are in a mini-rebuilding cycle and 2012 is the goal, why did we spend $90M+ on this season? I guess that's my problem.

I think they did so because they thought they would give the Fielder/Braun combo one more chance at making it to the postseason. When that money was spent no one saw a start this bad coming. No one could have predicted Hoffman's falling off a cliff. No one would have projected Wolf to have an ERA over 5. No one would have projected Davis to have an ERA over 7. And most thought that Bush would have bounced back from his injury. No one anticipated Hawkins having an ERA over 9.

 

If all of those players were playing up to their expectations, where would we be? I'd imagine we'd be at .500 or above at this point.

The real answer is that DM isn't playing for 2012, like you suggest. He honestly thought that he would get $90M+ worth of wins for his 90M dollars spent. This is not a guy that I trust anymore. Because either way you slice it, it's bad roster management. If you're going to spend $90M+ and think you are going for it, why assemble what he did with that money. And if you aren't going for it and are looking to 2012 when your farm grown pitching gets here, then why in the heck are you spending $90M dollars?
Once again, this assumes that Melvin could have foreseen the ridiculous number of player disappointments that have happened this season. Going into the season, the division was somewhat weak, and it seemed worth a shot to make a go with the Braun/Fielder combo one more year if we could plug a few pitching holes. It didn't work, and assuming there isn't a huge team turn-around, now is the point where they have to start considering a plan that doesn't include Fielder.
I respect your loyalty and your sense of appreciation for what Melvin has done (bottom feeder to contender). Though I'd argue that most new GM's get their jobs because their teams are at the bottom and contender was something I really only felt we were in 2007 & 2008. Look, I had the biggest thrill of my life, to be on the field when the Brewers clinched the Wild Card, shook DM's hand within minutes as we in the Brewers family celebrated returning to the post-season.... and I probably could have called him Jesus at that moment and believed it. So it's not like I hate the man, I've given his due when deserved. When you say total body of work, that's really where it starts to hit home. If 2012 is the next "run", then you are looking at probably two winning seasons and 1 playoff win in 10 years. I just expect a little more with the resources that he has had. I would have felt much better about DM if he would have just spent $60M or so and went with a lot more youth to get that .377 and not continued to make more of the same mistakes.
Trouble is, our youth is a year or two away so going on a youth movement wasn't an option this year. One thing Melvin did well this offseason was maintaining a lot of financial flexibility. The Brewers heading into next offseason could have as much as 40 million off the books.

 

The one thing that disappoints me about Melvin to this point is his sticking behind Macha. I really despise Macha's distaste for young players. Our team needs a manager who is capable of handling a youth movement.

 

But really, the bulk of the Brewers failures haven't been Melvin as much as the minor leagues drafted by Jack Z failing to produce more than one solid pitching prospect. I chalk some of that up to injury and bad luck. If Rogers, Jeffress and Jones had been able to stay on the field, who knows where we'd be now.

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I never suggested that his plan was building towards 2012. I think his plan was to win this year and next year, but some of the parts of that plan (Wolf, Davis, Hoffman, Hawkins) are failing horribly. However, I don't think that two years of less than par baseball after a good 2-3 year run should be something to fire DM for, after coming off 15 years of crap.

 

He signed Randy Wolf, who almost everyone considered to be the 2nd best SP available this offseason. He signed Doug Davis as bottom end rotation filler to a one year, low risk deal. He signed Hoffman, who not only attracted fans to the stadium, but helped the Brewers immensely last season and was going for an all time mark in saves. He signed Latroy Hawkins who over the past 10 seasons has had a 3.42 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 142 ERA+ (3.54, 1.31, and 126 over the last 5 years). To me, all of those moves seem like win now moves. To recap, he's put together one of the best lineups in all of baseball, did his best to improve his pitching staff through FA (and most signs pointed to those moves being quality moves), and still has a lot of exciting talent in the farm. To me that is a successful GM.

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Once again, this assumes that Melvin could have foreseen the ridiculous number of player disappointments that have happened this season. Going into the season, the division was somewhat weak, and it seemed worth a shot to make a go with the Braun/Fielder combo one more year if we could plug a few pitching holes. It didn't work, and assuming there isn't a huge team turn-around, now is the point where they have to start considering a plan that doesn't include Fielder.

 

I get that, but then what about 2009, when we spent $80M to get a .493 win pct? That was with guys performing over their heads and no real ridiculous falloff. I realize that hindsight is 20/20, but you had a lot of ppl, not only on here but on several publications who study baseball saying that this $90M roster put together by Melvin was not going to be very good. Now, we are stuck being not very good and very expensive.

 

Trouble is, our youth is a year or two away so going on a youth movement wasn't an option this year. One thing Melvin did well this offseason was maintaining a lot of financial flexibility. The Brewers heading into next offseason could have as much as 40 million off the books.

The one thing that disappoints me about Melvin to this point is his sticking behind Macha. I really despise Macha's distaste for young players. Our team needs a manager who is capable of handling a youth movement.

 

I also don't like the hiring of Macha, but if a youth movement is one or two years away, then why do we need a manager capable of a youth movement? I hope that his option isn't picked up for 2011, as I agree. If we all see a youth movement coming for 2011 or 2012, then let's do in 2010 what we need to be ready for when it comes. Foolish spending in 2010 just makes me nervous for what decisions Melvin will make to surround that youth movement when it gets here. I don't like calling for anybody's head really, but I'm nervous right now. This team is at a critical juncture in my opinion. If you let Melvin handle this 2010 draft/trade deadline/off-season, you might as well let him go until 2015 because what he does in the next 8 months might have reprecussions until then. Just like the Suppan decisions in 2007 are having an effect today. Just very nervous.

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I get that, but then what about 2009, when we spent $80M to get a .493 win pct? That was with guys performing over their heads and no real ridiculous falloff.

 

I felt the 2009 team underperformed as well, pretty much every single starting pitcher on the team had the worst year of their career and by a significant amount, Hardy took a major step back, Weeks got hurt, none of the young guys except McGehee really did anything useful. That team had at least .500 talent and probably a bit over .500.

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Once again, this assumes that Melvin could have foreseen the ridiculous number of player disappointments that have happened this season. Going into the season, the division was somewhat weak, and it seemed worth a shot to make a go with the Braun/Fielder combo one more year if we could plug a few pitching holes. It didn't work, and assuming there isn't a huge team turn-around, now is the point where they have to start considering a plan that doesn't include Fielder.

 

I get that, but then what about 2009, when we spent $80M to get a .493 win pct? That was with guys performing over their heads and no real ridiculous falloff. I realize that hindsight is 20/20, but you had a lot of ppl, not only on here but on several publications who study baseball saying that this $90M roster put together by Melvin was not going to be very good. Now, we are stuck being not very good and very expensive.

Last year, there were some good performances (Braun, Fielder, McGehee, Hoffman). But there were also a heap of players who performed far worse than anticipated (Bush, Parra, Looper, Hardy, Hart). The Brewers gambled big that Parra would put it together in 2009, and it just didn't happen. But despite that, that 2009 team was in first place half way through the season. But injuries and starting pitching not living up to expectations doomed them in the second half.

 

Most publications said the Brewers would be in the running for second in the division behind the Cardinals this season. No publication anticipated the type of fall off that we have been seeing. Most predicted the Brewers would be in the running for the wild card. Unfortunately, that just hasn't happened.

Trouble is, our youth is a year or two away so going on a youth movement wasn't an option this year. One thing Melvin did well this offseason was maintaining a lot of financial flexibility. The Brewers heading into next offseason could have as much as 40 million off the books.

The one thing that disappoints me about Melvin to this point is his sticking behind Macha. I really despise Macha's distaste for young players. Our team needs a manager who is capable of handling a youth movement.

 

I also don't like the hiring of Macha, but if a youth movement is one or two years away, then why do we need a manager capable of a youth movement? I hope that his option isn't picked up for 2011, as I agree. If we all see a youth movement coming for 2011 or 2012, then let's do in 2010 what we need to be ready for when it comes. Foolish spending in 2010 just makes me nervous for what decisions Melvin will make to surround that youth movement when it gets here. I don't like calling for anybody's head really, but I'm nervous right now. This team is at a critical juncture in my opinion. If you let Melvin handle this 2010 draft/trade deadline/off-season, you might as well let him go until 2015 because what he does in the next 8 months might have reprecussions until then. Just like the Suppan decisions in 2007 are having an effect today. Just very nervous.

Because this team is always going to have to be incorporating youth into the program. They aren't always going to come as part of a huge "movement". Gamel is the perfect example. He was essentially the only "youth" our team brought in last season (aside from Escobar's late season promotion), but he was managed horribly. We need a manager who is always capable of plugging youth into the lineup whether they arrive as part of a big movement or whether their rise to the big leagues on their own. In a small market system, making the most of your youth is always vital.

 

Suppan was brought on as a result of there not being any available youth options to fill the role. No mid/small market GMs would be able to maintain a strong ML rotation when the minor league system only produces one quality starter in 10 seasons. It's a real shame because the Brewers had the talent to have top of the rotation Major League impact in Neugy, Jones, Rogers, and Jeffress. But they've just ran into a patch of bad luck in the injury department.

 

That's one of the problems with minor league pitching. You can stock it with huge ceiling arms but sometimes you just get unlucky and have them get derailed by injuries. And unfortunately for the Brewers, this happened almost all at the same time.

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However, I don't think that two years of less than par baseball after a good 2-3 year run should be something to fire DM for, after coming off 15 years of crap.

 

Can we stop comparing DM to 15 years ago? Should Dean Taylor and his 35M payroll in 2000 be comparable to Doug Melvin and his success in 2008 with his $80M payroll? DM's winning percentage is .475. The 15 years prior to DM we won .455 pct of our games. A 2% increase while working with $60-90M payroll instead of $30M payrolls. I think it's silly compare these two timeframes.

 

 

To me, all of those moves seem like win now moves. To recap, he's put together one of the best lineups in all of baseball, did his best to improve his pitching staff through FA (and most signs pointed to those moves being quality moves), and still has a lot of exciting talent in the farm. To me that is a successful GM.

 

He is a successful GM, but why is he the man to get us to the next level? Because .475 and 1 playoff win over going on 8 seasons while spending $90M dollars doesnt seem like something worthy of continuing forward. If he were being given $60M, then yeah, I'd be tickled. But new ownership has come to expect more. Sometimes the answer isn't spending that money on the best FA pitcher that will come here. How about smart trades like Tampa always pulls off? Frankly, that is the kind of GM I think we need to get to the next level. Not 2nd Tier FA pitching, expensive bullpens and nuggets.

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When did the Brewers have a good 2-3 year run? Zero division titles, zero NLCS appearances, zero World Series Appearances, zero championships. I see a 3 month run on the back of Sabathia, but other than that I don't see the results. And now I see big-time falloff. He can only be considered a successful GM if you have lowered standards of what success entails, meaning 15 years of losing skewed where the measuring stick belongs.
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