anyone else seeing big changes ahead? Latest: Mark A says Melvin is going to be here a long time, Macha will not be fired Monday

[MJLiverock]

The sum weighting of Melvin's success and failures is reflected in the team's record over his tenure and the summation isn't looking too great right now. I don't know how anyone will be able to defend his record if this year's team loses 90+ games, and looks to be no better next year depending on how the Fielder situation plays out. If they admit the team is not a playoff contender as constructed and blow it up to retool for the future they could be looking at a 100 loss team next year. I don't know that I would trust Melvin to do that rebuild, I'd be too afraid he would just go at the same way again with unimpressive results.

 

Even tossing out his first 2 years at the helm since the Selig's purposely drove the payroll and franchise into the ground Mevin's team will have averaged an 80-82 record over his last 6 years (assuming they lose 90 this year) and will have had 1 playoff appearance, 2 seasons with an above .500 record and an average division finish of between 3rd and 4th. These win and place records will all be trending in the wrong direction as well.

[TooLiveBrew]

Even tossing out his first 2 years at the helm since the Selig's purposely drove the payroll and franchise into the ground Mevin's team will have averaged an 80-82 record over his last 6 years (assuming they lose 90 this year) and will have had 1 playoff appearance, 2 seasons with an above .500 record and an average division finish of between 3rd and 4th.

 

That, to me, is actually a mark in favor of Melvin, given how woeful the entire organization was (esp. MiLB) when he took over. If you're examining him as a guy that's rebuilt or rebuilding a franchise, I think it's pretty safe to say that he's done very good work. Much of it is still coming to fruition, and I think the pitching that can/will arrive in the next couple of seasons will bear that out. I just don't think it's anywhere close to fair to assess him as though we've seen everything he can do. He started from almost literally nothing; it takes a lot longer to build up from there.

[Ennder]

Even tossing out his first 2 years at the helm since the Selig's

purposely drove the payroll and franchise into the ground Mevin's team

will have averaged an 80-82 record over his last 6 years (assuming they

lose 90 this year) and will have had 1 playoff appearance, 2 seasons

with an above .500 record and an average division finish of between 3rd

and 4th. These win and place records will all be trending in the wrong

direction as well.

 

Given the state of the team 6 years ago and the fact they probably won't end up losing 90 this year I'd say that is a very strong track record. I think people just expected way too much out of one crop of rookies.

[MJLiverock]

6 years ago Melvin was already two season into his rebuild so I think of it as generous to not count them. This team is on pace to lose a 100 this year, 90 is assuming they improve.

 

What would it take for Melvin supporters to switch? 10 years of these results, 15 years? Never? Just curious how long of a leash management should be given. Everyone has different tolerances for failure and measures of success.

 

I would be more inclined to side with Melvin if the team was trending in the right direction but having peaked with the WC berth and then falling last year and further this year with not much on the horizon for the next 2 years leaves me at the stage where he had his chance and it is time to find someone to get the team to the next level of above being just competitive. I think Melvin did a fine job resurecting the team fromt the ashes to competitve but I dont' see his methods bringing a higher level of success because he is too focused on the floor and not the ceiling.

[TooLiveBrew]

6 years ago Melvin was already two season into his rebuild so I think of it as generous to not count them. This team is on pace to lose a 100 this year, 90 is assuming they improve.

 

What would it take for Melvin supporters to switch? 10 years of these results, 15 years? Never?

 

One organization that's been talked about a lot lately in comparison is Tampa. Tampa basically was built up from nothing, and took 10 seasons of averaging right around 95 losses to get to where they are today. So for me, yeah, I think 6 or 8 years isn't really enough in this instance, especially because the promising pitching in the organization is still a year or two away from MLB. Once you hit that 10 year mark, I would say it's pretty safe to say whether Melvin's work has paid off or not. Keep in mind that, in the meantime, he took the Brewers to the postseason for the first time in a long time, which has gone a long way towards rejuvenating interest & revenues. Tampa didn't get a playoff appearance until *after* 10 seasons (& still don't really have great fan support).

[TheCrew07]

I'm curious to get others' takes on what Melvin's success with so-called scrap-heap guys is worth. He's essentially picks these players up for free. This is just a list of guys off the top of my head:

 

Axford

McGehee

Kottaras

Estrada (Marco)

Coffey

Davis (first go-round)

Podsednik (only on here bc he helped get Carlos Lee)

Turnbow

Clark

Kolb

Wise

Overall I think Melvin has been much more willing to chase hard throwing relievers, throwing a bunch at the wall and seeing what sticks. I'm not sure why he prefers the lower ceiling control pitchers for the starting rotation, I liked his bullpen philosophy until he started spending significant money there.

 

Axford - Was only pitching 89-91 when he was picked up. MiLB forum members will recall John crediting Lee Tunnell with fixing his delivery and adding 5 MPH to his FB over night, it was a big story last year. Nice depth pickup without the velocity regardless, kudos to Lee Tunnell for being the man and turning Axford's career around.

 

McGehee - Classic Melvin nugget, his minor league career has been well documented here, and the organization even admitted they never expected him to be this good. I have no idea where his power surge is coming from, in watching him it's very difficult to believe he wasn't this good all along. A great steal from a rival organization makes this move even better.

 

Kottaras - He's been exactly as advertised, a better offensive than defensive catcher.

 

Estrada - Many people thought his release from the Nats was curious. As I said in a different thread I'm not sure he's the answer to anything yet, but I like that he works consistently in the low 90s. Definately a good find.

 

Coffey - another good find, maybe excellent, it's not like Coffey was an unknown, and much like Estrada I'd be curious to see what other organizations submitted claims.

 

Davis - Melvin knew him from the Texas organization, I wouldn't classify him as a find so much as familiar. I really liked Davis until I sat behind home plate for his 11 BB performance in his last season as a Brewer before the trade, after that I never trusted the guy and still don't. He was far and away better than what we had beyond Sheets though. I'm not sure if that's a credit to Davis or more of a commetary on how dire the pitching situation was in the past.

 

Pods - An average player, nothing special, was an immediate upgrade for the Brewers though at the time and acquiring him allowed an even better upgrade to happen to Carlos Lee. I think this is high point of Melvin's tenure as GM.

 

Clark - I always like Brady, McGehee reminds me quite a bit of Clark. Nothing special athletically, just work hard and get the job done. I have a soft spot for this kind of player, the guy who maximizes his performance relative to his talent. There is no greater compliment than to say that someone got the most out of their talent. Good job finding him, bad idea throwing money at him.

 

Turnbow/Kolb - similar to many of Melvin's claims/signings of reliever... hard throwers that couldn't find the zone with their first organization but had that special FB, neither one lasted long, but each had their year in the sun. Good risk/reward moves for a team on the rise.

 

Wise - I think he's typically the type of player who's going to float around. When he's on he's on his game he's above average, but when he has a bad season or the team has someone more talented he's easy to walk away from because his arm isn't anything special. I view him similarly to Davis, better than what we had, performed solidly, not a difference maker, just a solid upgrade and pickup.

[RobDeer 45]

Melvin is doing a great job in my book. Look at where we were, look at where we are now. Look at how many people come out to see this team play. I know that has changed a lot of expectations and we all want them to get to the next level but it's very difficult to do with our resources. Yes I want a winner, but I'm happy to actually have a chance at the playoffs each year instead of hoping we don't finish last. I also think our farm system has become way more exciting.

[joepepsi]

I'm not sure why he prefers the lower ceiling control pitchers for the starting rotation...

I'm sure he doesn't. There are precious few high ceiling young starting pitchers available through trade, and this organization can not afford to sign premium free agent starting pitchers. (Although Wolf was considered the 2nd best free agent starter on the market last winter.)

 

The Twins don't have a bunch of high ceiling pitchers in their rotation either. Very few teams do. In fact, I'm not sure I can think of any other than the Orioles. And they have a terrible offense.

[Ennder]

What would it take for Melvin supporters to switch? 10 years of these results, 15 years? Never? Just curious how long of a leash management should be given. Everyone has different tolerances for failure and measures of success.

 

I would expect a rebuild of a franchise that was as bad off as the Brewers were to take roughly 10-12 years. I also fail to see how being a .500 team over an extended period of time is a failure, given the payroll that should be the goal not a failure. Sometimes we'll get years where we can make pushes at the playoffs, sometimes we'll have years that are duds.

[MJLiverock]

One organization that's been talked about a lot lately in comparison is Tampa. Tampa basically was built up from nothing, and took 10 seasons of averaging right around 95 losses to get to where they are today. So for me, yeah, I think 6 or 8 years isn't really enough in this instance, especially because the promising pitching in the organization is still a year or two away from MLB. Once you hit that 10 year mark, I would say it's pretty safe to say whether Melvin's work has paid off or not.

 

The Rays fired their GM after the 2005 season after 8 years at the helm so I guess they didn't even wait forever to decide something wasn't working. I guess for me this year is lost and next year most likely as well so that would put Melvin at 10 years without much to show. Maybe the team would be on the upswing then but really the pitching will still be pretty raw, guys like Odorizzi, Heckathorn, Bucci, (guys in A now) will just be breaking in as MLB pitcher probably on limited innings, even Jeffress is probably in this same boat given his time missed. Realistically, I think it is more like 3 to 4 years before the pitchers at A level are going to make big contributions.

[TooLiveBrew]

In addition to the A-ball guys, Amaury Rivas is one that could be up as soon as this season, but probably more likely in '11. Mark Rogers isn't all that far away (though whether he can start or not is another story), and Willy Peralta -- admittedly an A-ball guy as well for now -- could be in the rotation by '12. Then the other A-ball guys, like you note, would probably follow.

 

As for the Rays, I'd venture to guess that if LaMar had gotten them a postseason berth & bigger fan following, he'd probably have been able to retain his job. Here's a quote from (then new team president) Stuart Sternberg, who fired LaMar:

 

"It's not good enough any more -- and maybe it was 20, 30, 40 years ago -- to say: 'Hey we're a baseball team, come out and see us play.' ... You've got to give people a reason to come,' Sternberg said. "And most importantly, you've got to give them a reason to come back."

 

I think Melvin has absolutely been a huge part of giving Brewers fans a reason to come to the park, & a reason to come back over his time here. Without that, I'm sure he would have already been fired. It's not exactly a gold standard of comparison, but I think you have to consider when you comment that the Rays axed LaMar, that they reached 70 wins once in his tenure (averaged just under 65 wins). Melvin has done a far better job (10 wins/season more on avg. over the same number of seasons), which is part of why I think most calls for his termination have either too short a memory, not enough patience, or both.

I definitely get the beef people have with Melvin, most specifically in your nicely-phrased comment about the floor v. the ceiling. I also want to see him focus more on ceiling than floor. But I guess the reason I want to see him get more time is that I think the organization has already shifted in that direction via the draft. And, aside from trading for power arms (which as has been noted by others, is hard to do), an org. like the Brewers is going to have to draft & develop them, but that takes time.

[logan82]

Doug Melvin took over the Brewers in October 2002. Tampa Bay has been drafting and building their franchise since 1996. Doug is 8 years into his rebuilding. It took the Rays 12 years to reach a world series.

[JJHardy7]

I definitely get the beef people have with Melvin, most specifically in your nicely-phrased comment about the floor v. the ceiling. I also want to see him focus more on ceiling than floor. But I guess the reason I want to see him get more time is that I think the organization has already shifted in that direction via the draft. And, aside from trading for power arms (which as has been noted by others, is hard to do), an org. like the Brewers is going to have to draft & develop them, but that takes time.

 

+1

 

I still don't get how the Brewers aren't meeting expectations for the Brewers during DM's tenure. What are we going to do...bring in some unknown/also ran/formerly fired GM and be in the WS next year? It doesn't work that way IMO. I know I can be hard on players and the such, but we are still the Milwaukee Brewers. I know we can debate 'small market' all day, but the bottom line is if nobody cares and nobody shows up the Brewers lose money. We can't sit back and think every potential GM, manager, and/or player can't wait to join the Brewers. DM is doing a fine job...I think he does need to be more active in the current minor league system and its future. That IMO will determine his fate in the next few years since at the end of the day he is the GM.

[TheCrew07]

One organization that's been talked about a lot lately in comparison is Tampa. Tampa basically was built up from nothing, and took 10 seasons of averaging right around 95 losses to get to where they are today. So for me, yeah, I think 6 or 8 years isn't really enough in this instance, especially because the promising pitching in the organization is still a year or two away from MLB. Once you hit that 10 year mark, I would say it's pretty safe to say whether Melvin's work has paid off or not.

 

The Rays fired their GM after the 2005 season after 8 years at the helm so I guess they didn't even wait forever to decide something wasn't working. I guess for me this year is lost and next year most likely as well so that would put Melvin at 10 years without much to show. Maybe the team would be on the upswing then but really the pitching will still be pretty raw, guys like Odorizzi, Heckathorn, Bucci, (guys in A now) will just be breaking in as MLB pitcher probably on limited innings, even Jeffress is probably in this same boat given his time missed. Realistically, I think it is more like 3 to 4 years before the pitchers at A level are going to make big contributions.

*I have now had 2 full replies eaten by Yuku on this topic, but I really want to respond to this TB idea*

 

Why does the time prior to 2004 matter when discussing TB? Friedman was hired in 2004 as the Director of Baseball Development for the Rays, then promoted to GM in Nov 2005, do we hold everything that happened to in Milwaukee prior to 2003 against Melvin? In 2004 Freidman had a hand in acquiring Kazmir, then in 2006 he traded for Jackson, and in 2007 he traded for Garza. Where in Melvin's tenure as GM is there 1 similar trade, let alone 3? The 2008 TB team that went to the WS was built on the rotation, and that rotation had the 3 starters I previously mentioned, plus Sheilds (their version of Yo whom I wanted to trade Fielder for in 2008), and Sonnanstine (similar to Bush). Why could TB do it but Milwaukee didn't have the same opportunity? GMs didn't call Milwaukee? Where is this evidence that trading for pitching was nearly impossible and remains such? Freidman had 5 drafts prior to his first winning season in 2008, Doug Melvin similarly had 5 drafts prior to his first winning season. In those 5 seasons TB averaged 96.4 losses and Milwaukee 92.4, the difference being almost entirely that Melvin was immediately able to flip Sexson and upgrade several positions including the rotation while Friedman didn't have a similar opportunity.

 

I also take issue with the idea that TB lost their way into being better than Milwaukee, in those 5 prior seasons TB drafted 1st (Price), 3rd (Longoria), 8th (Townsend), 4th (Niemann), and 1st (Young). Milwaukee drafted 16th (Jeffress), 5th (Braun), 5th (Rogers), 2nd (Weeks), and 7th (Fielder). TB missed badly with Townsend, flipped Young for Garza, and actually tried to trade Niemann at the 2008 deadline for a bat. Currently they were able to get 3/5 of their rotation, and Longoria who's very good and only getting better (.894 career OPS) and maybe a HOF caliber player out of their picks. The Brewers were able to get 2 players who have started their careers on a HOF type pace in Braun (.937 OPS) and Fielder (.924 OPS), a nice contributor who could still break out in Weeks, and absolutely nothing for the rotation, but Jeffress and Rogers are still both legit prospects. Even in the 1 year Milwaukee drafted significantly lower they still picked up Jeffress who has one of the best arms in all of professional baseball despite his personal issue. Where's the huge disparity in draft position or talent in from the drafts? Also, in the last 2 years the Brewers have had 4 more 1st round picks and 3 more 2nd round picks, yet TB still has a better farm system.

 

The difference from where I'm sitting is entirely in the way the organizations were built, one organization made pitching a priority, 1 made made position players a priority. Friedman has actually gotten better results in a similar period of time reaching a WS, they've sustained their success better since breaking out, , and they in a better to compete in the future than the Brewers are. Friedman also has spent a minuscule $1 million per marginal win, the Brewers have spent well over $5, while Friedman doesn't have nearly the budget of Melvin, he's gotten significantly more bang for his buck. Friedman also started the trend of signing players early with Shields' wonderful contract prior to the 2008 season followed by Longoria's contract 3 months later. Friedman's glaring failure in FA was Burrell, Melvin's record in FA has been much worse, Cameron's 8.6 WAR saving Melvin from performing horribly in FA.

 

When you take into consideration TB's focus on pitching, how much they spend per marginal win, and how innovative they were contract extensions, I think it's extremely obvious which GM understands where the true value currently lies and has been in baseball, and sadly it's not even close. I have no problem with the idea that Melvin did the best job he know's how to do, but that doesn't mean that he did best job possible or that he's the best option for the future.

[monty57]

I think Friedman is generally accepted as one of (if not the) best GMs in the game. Melvin is seen as a very good GM. If we were to drop Melvin, what would the odds be that we go from "very good" to "excellent" with our next GM?

 

More likely, we'd either go with the "proven old school" GM who raids the minor leagues for an extra couple of wins for a few seasons before we're bereft of prospects, or a "up and coming new school" GM and end up with a JP Riccardi clone who has no idea how to negotiate contracts.

 

Maybe it's boring, but I'd stick with one of the better GMs in the game rather than roll the dice trying to defy the odds and find someone better.

[tigerbrew]

I'm curious to get others' takes on what Melvin's success with so-called scrap-heap guys is worth. He essentially picks these players up for free. This is just a list of guys off the top of my head:

 

Axford

McGehee

Kottaras

Estrada (Marco)

Coffey

Narveson

Davis (first go-round)

Podsednik (only on here bc he helped get Carlos Lee)

Turnbow

Clark

Kolb

Wise

Marco Estrada was claimed off waivers from the Nationals under the strong recommendation of Sounds pitching coach Rich Gale. (also see this link). Gale was Estrada's pitching coach in Syracuse last year and really liked Marco's ability. I think credit should go to Gale on Estrada and Gale has also done a great job with the Sounds pitching staff.

 

[RockCoCougars]

I'm curious to get others' takes on what Melvin's success with so-called scrap-heap guys is worth. He essentially picks these players up for free. This is just a list of guys off the top of my head:

 

Axford

McGehee

Kottaras

Estrada (Marco)

Coffey

Narveson

Davis (first go-round)

Podsednik (only on here bc he helped get Carlos Lee)

Turnbow

Clark

Kolb

Wise

Melvin has picked up a lot of talent off the scrap heap, but to this point, none of them have sustained success for more than a season or two. It's not like he stole a guy from another organization like Santana or George Bell in the Rule 5, or in a trade like Sandburg to the Cubs, Pedro Guerrero to the Dodgers, or Bay to the Pirates. None of these guys have turned into players who can be counted on year in and year out, after initial success, they have tended to fade away. It looks like McGahee may turn into something, but actually the best nugget that Melvin mined is now playing for Texas.

[TheCrew07]

More likely, we'd either go with the "proven old school" GM who raids the minor leagues for an extra couple of wins for a few seasons before we're bereft of prospects, or a "up and coming new school" GM and end up with a JP Riccardi clone who has no idea how to negotiate contracts.

Isn't that exactly what Melvin is? The only distinguishing characteristic Melvin has that makes him better than "just a guy" is his nugget mining. I think that nugget mining meant quite a bit more when we really stunk than right now when we are trying to get from average to good. The nugget mining is a very good trait to have, but his philosophies on pitching are holding this team back, which is a very bad trait to have. I think he'd better be off as a GM of a larger market team, a team that could compete in FA for impact pitching, doing it Melvin's way we'll never have enough pitching in Milwaukee... doing it his way in Texas he didn't have enough pitching, he never seems to have enough pitching., that's not bad luck, that's a trend.

 

As far as Friedman goes, obviously I think he's the best GM in the game, but there are plenty of other people out there who aren't getting their due, there's no way that Melvin or Jack Z are better GMs than Dan O'Dowd or Jon Daniels for example. Walt Jocketty would be a top 10 GM if he hadn't hired the worst possible manager for young pitching, Andy McPhail is top 10 GM at this time, he's positioned Baltimore for future success. Will Mark A find someone better if he dumps Melvin? No idea, but I do know that if you do nothing, then you don't get any change. I guess if a maxed out payroll, declining attendance, and declining performance on the field are what you want, then there's no reason to change. If the best reason we have for keeping a guy is we might get someone worse... well how do we ever get ahead if we approach decisions in that manner? Aren't we truly talking about fear in that case? "Well this sucks but it could always be worse?" That's just not how I approach life, I'm very aggressive, if something isn't working I'm looking for a better way, if something is working I'm wondering if there's a better way, I'm never going to stand to still... so you're never going to me to convince me that inaction is the best possible course of action. I think making decisions based upon fear, or any emotion, is worst the possible way to make a decision.

 

Decisions based on fear are based on emotion not objective analysis, similar to making decisions based on anger, which is why if I'm angry about a post, I usually let a thread sit for a couple of days before coming back to it. I think there's been quite of emotional analysis in regards to Melvin turning around the franchise, rather than objective analysis of his performance as a whole. Just like I think people let their emotional response to a playoff appearance cloud any objective analysis of the Sabathia trade, even if the playoff appearance meant the world to you it's still okay to admit making that limited Melvin's options moving foward. There has to be more than one person out there in a baseball front office that is willing to take a different approach and not just do things "the baseball way" because that's how they've always been done. I just won't believe that Friedman is the only innovator in the game, that he's the only GM willing to mix old school scouting with modern sabermetrics, that he's the only GM capable of determining how to efficiently spend money. I'm nobody, yet I can see the brilliance in what TB has done, surely there are others around baseball.

[monty57]

Well, many of the responses are focusing on the fact that we are playing well below our talent level this year, so people say we have a terrible team. Kind of the opposite of when we started out 24-10 and people were ready to print World Series tickets. That would be making a decision based on fear or emotion.

 

I believe we still have a very talented system top to bottom, when Melvin started out with basically nothing. Some prospect pitchers didn't pan out, so we had to fill in with veteran FA pitchers. We got good really quickly, so Melvin took a shot at the World Series in the Sabathia trade. We still have a lot of talent, both at the MLB level and in the minors, so it's not nearly as bad as some seem to make it out to be.

[paul253]

I believe we still have a very talented system top to bottom, when

Melvin started out with basically nothing. Some prospect pitchers didn't

pan out, so we had to fill in with veteran FA pitchers. We got good

really quickly, so Melvin took a shot at the World Series in the

Sabathia trade. We still have a lot of talent, both at the MLB level and

in the minors, so it's not nearly as bad as some seem to make it out to

be.

 

I actually disagree with this. We didn't get really good. After a really hot start in 2007, they played the rest of the year 10 games under .500 In 2008 they had a really good first few months then took an absolute nosedive at the end of the year. Only the pitching of Sabathia and the dump the Mets took allowed us into the playoffs. By 2009 they were back under .500. Personally I think with the talent the Brewers had/have offensively, it's an absolute shame they are as bad as they are. If Melvin could have developed any pitching whatsoever the team would be ok. But he has to rely on below average free agents and "nuggets" like Doug Davis to get by. The fact is, he's had what, 7 years to find pitching? And he hasn't. What makes us think he's going to be able to change that any time soon? Especially considering he had the exact same problem with his old team.

 

I think overall, good pitching with bad offense can still win games (see SF) Bad pitching with a good offense cannot. We need to find a GM who can bring in good pitching.

[Invader3K]

Well, at this point I don't see too much changing in the next couple seasons, so I don't think it matters too much who is the GM.

 

The obvious solution is staring us square in the face (trade Prince Fielder and whatever other pieces you can to get some decent cost controlled pitching), but I don't see it happening with Mark Attanasio at least partly calling the shots. He apparently does not want to make any move that signals the team is faltering or is going into any sort of rebuild mode. I don't see a new GM coming in and magically (that's basically what it would be at this juncture) finding a couple "good young high upside" pitchers at this point. The window of opportunity for this team has effectively shut with the horrible start this year. Yes, perhaps they could turn it around down the stretch, but does anyone honestly see that happening? They're 10 under .500, 8.5 back in the division. They would need to win 62% of their remaining games to reach 90 wins. The only team playing that kind of ball so far this year is the Tampa Bay Rays.

 

I think we're going to have to wait until at least 2012 to be seriously competitive again. All Melvin's moves this off-season have backfired (other than arguably trading for Gomez), and it's going to cost the team this season and next. Maybe some deals can be made in the off-season. Free agency is not a real solution this winter as the pitching crop doesn't look that impressive and it's not like we're going to be the only franchise shopping around.

 

I hope they'll be honest and look at the situation at hand, not hoping for the best case scenarios to play out; but with team revenue so heavily tied to ticket sales, I don't foresee that happening.

[sheethead]

If the best reason we have for keeping a guy is we might get someone worse... well how do we ever get ahead if we approach decisions in that manner? Aren't we truly talking about fear in that case? "Well this sucks but it could always be worse?"

 

Is this what is keeping Jim Hendry in Chicago?

 

Melvin's overall body of work, and the obvious regression of the team's performance, leads me to the conclusion that Melvin is a very average GM. He's not bad, but he's not that good. Ho hum I would say. Take away the great timing of the Sabathia deal and Melvin is below average, and likely fired. That trade set up a goodwill buffer for him, which he is likely going to burn through this year and next. I'm not buying Melvin as a very good GM.

[RU Rah Rah]

If the fate of the franchise hangs on the ability of the GM (and I think it does, to a large extent), why are they paid so little? It absolutely amazes me that the best GM's in the game are roughly in the same salary range as Jody Gerut and Craig Counsell.

[lcbj68c]

I'm sitting here unable to wipe this smile off of my face, because TheCrew07 absolutely gets it right. I'm passionate about this even moreso because I have the misfortune of living in Tampa. There is nothing more frustrating that watching Freidman absolutely get it and Melvin can't. Part of the reason is because this town doesn't even deserve a team. Since Freidman took over, the fans have supported at the gate with these respective numbers, 2005 1.1M 2006 1.3M 2007 1.3M 2008 1.7M 2009 1.8M. Even the World Series run and the following season only garnered an additional 100K. In 2010, they have the best record in baseball and they are on pace for 1.6M fans. Still yet, with these kind of gate numbers, Freidman can go out, underspend Melvin by nearly 18M and get results. It's not like Tampa's FCI (fan cost index) is anything drastically higher than Milwaukee, in fact, I think it might be lower. In their World Series year, player payroll was at $43M !!

 

I've yet to hear one convincing argument to even semi-sway me towards giving Doug Melvin more time to run this ship.

A) "Well gosh gee, he started with nothing and made us something" Well of course he started with nothing. Don't most GM's that start a new job, do so because the situation is bad?

B) "Aww shucks, It's not Doug Melvin's fault that We're Milwaukee and that's the best we can do as top level free agent pitchers won't come here". What free agent pitchers have went to Tampa Bay in the past 4 years? How about free agent hitters?

C) "The minor league pitchers are coming...just wait" So if this pitching doesn't pan out and it's 2012 before Melvin is gone, we realistically have to wait until 2016 for another GM's plan to produce dividends.

D) "But Doug Melvin finds nuggets". Every GM finds nuggets. Sometimes these teams need to get rid of these nuggets because they are blocked. Take McGehee for example. He was blocked by Aramis Ramirez. The problem with Melvin is that his nuggets are used as plugs and usually only produce 1-2 seasons. Then, because his core players leave, he has to move these nuggets around to other places. If they were so valuable, why aren't they just left at their position? McGehee has already been mentioned by some as a stopgap over at 1B if Fielder is gone. What do a couple of nuggets mean when you have no french fries and no soft drink. Perhaps just a really spiffy toy (Braun/Gallardo). Oh yeah, did I mention you paid $90M for this happy meal consisting of a couple of nuggets and no fries/softdrink?

E) "Every GM makes bad decisions, Suppan, Hall, etc come off the books soon." Yes, and do you trust Melvin to spend that money wisely? It's like these kids I see today here in Florida driving a 1995 Cadillac. The bumper is falling off, the exhaust pipe has holes in it, all four tires have no tread, the interior carpet is tore, but they got $2,000 worth of stereo equipment inside. Sometimes making a bad decision will cost you dearly, like not fixing those tires and getting into a deadly accident. If you don't spend wisely on the things that hold your car up, you deserve what you get. Same with Melvin.

F) "Golly, we could do worse". This is borderline defeatist attitude, IMO. Of course we could do worse. But seriously, why is it that the Nashville Sounds, year in and year out (With 2008 being the exception), win Division Titles and play .530 baseball? Yet the Brewers play .494 baseball? I believe the reason is because of roster management. There's no doubt in my mind that some players have talent on this team. But is this TEAM talented? Does this team have $90M dollars worth of talent? I think the answer is "no". And considering the Rays went to a World Series with a $43M dollar payroll while playing the Red Sox/Yankees, there is no doubt in my mind that Doug Melvin has done too little with too much and another 4 years isn't going to change his ways.

[TooLiveBrew]

D) "But Doug Melvin finds nuggets". Every GM finds nuggets.

 

Aside from your condescending tone, this is what I take issue with most. I'd like to know who the other GMs are with a track record of turning out guys off the waiver wire or as MiLB free agents as effectively as Melvin.