anyone else seeing big changes ahead? Latest: Mark A says Melvin is going to be here a long time, Macha will not be fired Monday

[Invader3K]

It seems that many on this board greatly over value this team's pitching. Most of us thought it would be impossible for the pitching to be worse than last year and unfortunately, we were wrong.

 

I guess I am guilty of this. I figured this was an 85 win team. Maybe that was a tad optimstic, but I didn't think it was unreasonable. Maybe I had Brewers Blinders on, but I thought Wolf and Davis would be better than they have been so far. Could anyone have reasonably predicted Hoffman and Hawkins both falling off so badly after great performances last year? It's not so much that these guys are all under performing compared to last season, it's that they are so incredibly bad compared to last season. It's like the perfect storm of bad luck and diminishing returns. I don't fully blame Melvin for all these problems, but his flaws as an evaluator of pitching (and the value of these pitchers compared to the salary he has allotted to them) have to definitely be taken into account.

 

It's just sad that we are the fourth best team in all of MLB in runs scored (behind NYY, PHI, and TB). Just seems like such a waste that the pitching can't even be somewhere close to league average.

[brewmann04]

If the Brewers Fire Macha and hire Willie we no better at some point the players need to produce .

[Invader3K]

If the Brewers Fire Macha and hire Willie we no better at some point the players need to produce .

Well, the offense is producing. It's just that the pitching is so incredibly bad right now (worst in the NL). I don't think it matters who is at the helm. The only point to firing Macha is that it might possibly send a message to the team, and the fact that he probably won't be around next year anyway.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I'm right there with you, Beast Light - a collection of #4-#5 type starters doesn't make a good rotation even if they're pitching to their career statistical expectations. In a vacuum, all their numbers combine to form what looks like a respectable rotation. In reality, if there's no dominant starter(s) anchoring the rotation and consistently giving a team great starts, the burden a bunch of #4-#5 type starters puts on a bullpen leads to the whole thing blowing up. The bullpen gets overtaxed by having to pitch too many innings, and then the manager tries to keep mediocre starters in longer to save the pen, and they get exposed the 3rd and 4th time through a lineup. Since both the Brewer pen and rotation are bad, it's like the blind leading the blind off a cliff.

[brewizard]

It's like the perfect storm of bad luck and diminishing returns. I don't fully blame Melvin for all these problems, but his flaws as an evaluator of pitching (and the value of these pitchers compared to the salary he has allotted to them) have to definitely be taken into account.

 

Yeah. That's about the sum of the parts right there. Melvin is a mediocre GM when it comes to pitching. The Brewers pitching staff has been soft for years! That is so devastating precisely because our offense has been pretty good in that time. This really reminds me of Melvin's Texas situation, except Melvin has, incredibly, been LESS successful here than there.

 

I was mad at Melvin going into last season because he held pat with the worst group of starters in MLB. Then, this year, I was still mad, but I had become more depressed than mad. Now, I'm no longer able top muster anger anymore. I'm just plain depressed when I think of the Brewers.

 

Worse, if I express too much doom and gloom, those wearing Brewers blinders here will scold me for not being upbeat about the potential stud pitching we will get when we trade Fielder! Ugh...

 

If the Brewers don't turn this around very soon, it will be time to nuke the roster and the front office. If that happens, of course, I think I'll need to reevaluate the amount of time and money I spend on the Brewers.

 

The Cubs truly are cursed. The Brewers just stink.

[sheethead]

The only point to firing Macha is that it might possibly send a message to the team

 

It could possibly have an effect on the intangible of team chemistry. The hiring of Macha in the first place was similar to trying to drive a square peg into a round hole. This season is lost anyway, so Mark Attanasio could just ride these guys until the end and fire them once its all over.

 

However, I am not sure how comfortable Mark A. should be with allowing Melvin to run the draft and trade Fielder. We could very well end up with another Big Ten pitcher going nowhere and a bag of magical beans.

[NievesNoNO]

I think Macha needs to go at this point even if it's just for the sake of doing something. He hasn't been dealt the best hand and has probably been a bit unlucky, but the bottom line is results.

 

My biggest concern on Macha is the lack of focus and fundamentals that this team is showing thus far. Bad defense, poor base running, just flat out flailing at the plate at times. I know he's had a tough time with getting the starters deeper into games but running Wolf and Narveson out after they'd clearly passed a reasonable pitch count is irresponsible. Don't get me wrong, I think pitchers should be able to throw that many pitches in a tight and meaningful situation when they are dominating. Neither of those situations called for that decision though. I know the bullpen is tired, but you have to have a couple guys in there that can tough it out for a couple of innings at a time. To me Suppan and Vargas are those guys, but are rarely used in that situation. Lastly, I think he's starting to waiver with a consistent philosophy. The sacrifice bunt in the first inning the other night surprised me. Not that I don't think it has merit, but to just randomly choose a game to do it seems odd. If you're going to be a team that plays small ball, uses speed on the bases, works hit and runs and sacrifices that's fine, (I actually prefer that sort of game, although I know many of you disagree with that sort of game based on stats) but you need to do that consistently. Have that be kind of your identity then. I'm good going the other way too, just going station to station without pushing the issue and waiting for the big inning if that's what you do on a consistent basis.

[TheCrew07]

I think this all goes back to the idea that the rotation would be better "on paper" than it was last year. I have no doubt that ultimately Wolf is a better pitcher than Looper, but somehow the team managed to win 14 of the games Looper started because the offense picked him up. I think many people got caught up in trying to evaluate the individual pitchers, when ultimately the wins are all that matters. Looper stunk no doubt, but for the team's record to be better from that spot in the rotation the team will have to win more than 14 of Wolf's starts. The same is true of every other spot in the rotation... Gallardo, Bush, and so on right down the line. The tough part about this is that a better performance than last year from each spot won't necessarily equal more wins because a pitcher is still dependent on the defense, offense, and bullpen to win the game.

 

Last year I believe the starters were truly the problem, this year every pitcher on the staff is taking turns pitching the team out of wins. When a starter pitches well enough to win, the bullpen finds a way to blow it. The starters do bear some responsibility for not being able to ever finish what they start, or even get close to finishing, but I think that concept should be obvious enough Thus far the pitching as a whole has been absolutely putrid, I'm not sure it can possibly be this bad all season, but even if it isn't they've dug themselves an awfully deep hole.

 

I truly hope that people who were in favor of all these signings might step back and reevaluate what Melvin's approach to team building, not just with the pitching situation, but in general. If nothing else, specifically in regards to the value we've gotten back for the money that has been spent. Spending more money isn't the answer and never has been, spending money efficiently should be the answer.

 

edit. Note that in the first paragraph I'm not saying we should evaluate pitchers by wins, I'm saying ultimately the team is evaluated by wins and losses, so for the team to win more games we would need more wins from each slot in the rotation to win more games than last season. How the team wins the game doesn't matter (good start, bad start, whatever), just that they net more wins than the previous season.

[jakesdaddio]

I don't have a lot of faith in Macha, but my main concern is this organizations ability to draft and develop pitching. Hitting hasn't been the problem. No matter who has run this organization, whether it be Dean Taylor, Doug Melvin, or on some levels Jack Z, they have not developed or drafted very good pitching. Sal Bando did a better job of drafting pitching, and he was TERRIBLE. I have loved watching Weeks, Fielder, Braun, Hart, Hardy and others develop and advance through the minor leagues. But as I look now, where is the next wave of great pitching? Zach Braddoch? Eric Arnett? Jake Odorozzi? Have you seen their ERA's, or their teams records? Not good. We are looking at 3-4 years of poor pitching prospects for this organization. The only way to move forward is to start by trading Prince. I don't want to do it, but would you rather lose games 7-6, or win games 2-1? I remember that feeling when CC Sabathia was on the mound, that the Brewers had no chance of losing that day. Imagine having a rotation that gave you that feeling 3 times a week? wouldn't you rather have Lyle Overbay at first, and Roy Halladay pitching, or Prince at first and Doug Davis pitching? Those are the type's of questions that we as fans need to ask ourselves, and the Brewers organization needs to answer in the coming months. Pay Braun the $200 Million on the offensive side, and trade Prince for young pitching with big upside. That is this franchises only hope. Firing Macha won't really do anything.

[YoGasKpose]

Macha has made some awful moves in recent weeks, including leaving Wolf in to flounder last night. On the whole, it seems as though everyone is pressing. The big hits aren't coming and the other guys' grounders are finding holes. There have been some terrible decisions and some really poor performances, but there's been some bad luck involved too.

I'm not ready to give up on this season yet. Like Invader said, this has to be pretty much the low point. Teams come back from poor starts all the time. Whether it's the Rockies or the Astros, there are several recent examples of teams really turning it on in the second half. I don't think that's out of the realm of possibility for this team. Braun is easily one of the top three pure hitters in baseball, Fielder's power will arrive at some point, and Casey McGehee has been nothing short of amazing. Corey Hart's been better than I expected as well. Our catchers are better than Kendall offensively, and Gomez will upgrade the D when he comes back.

Our offense has struggled lately, but there are still guys I have faith in to drive in runs. The bullpen has been awful, but that just shows how complete a team needs to be to really compete. If Hoffman blows just 2 or 3 saves instead of 5, this team's record looks a whole lot better. The starting pitching hasn't been great, but it has kept the Crew in games through the middle innings. Can you really ask for more? Gallardo has legitimate ace stuff. Maybe he'll get some help from Parra and Cappy over the next month or so. Gallardo, Wolf, a revitalized Parra, Bush, and Davis/Cappy isn't nearly as bad as the rotation's been in years past.

I guess what I'm saying is that we're at the quarter pole, and it's been an awfully bad quarter. But ten games under and eight games out in the division is not a reason to stick a fork in these guys yet. Trading Prince might even bring some much needed help for this year, let alone next. These guys have to start playing better soon, and I hope it can start tonight.

Make some hay before the All-Star break and go from there.

[Beast Light]

Here is my simple take on the issue. Macha could and probably should be upgraded. That being said, there isnt' a soul out there who could win with this team. Macha should be replaced now and Melvin should be replaced at the end of the season.

 

The Brewers need a GM who can better manage the payroll and evaluate pitching. This team needs to make pitching the priority and begin developing it as they can't attempt to rely on shelling out $10MM/yr contracts to guys like Randy Wolf and Jeff Suppan.

 

I know that I will likely get criticized for this but I feel that Randy Wolf is going to be the second coming of Jeff Suppan. I don't like his age, I don't like his injury history and I don't like the fact that they signed him coming off a contract year. I suspect that people aren't going to be very happy with his contract a year from now.

[sheethead]

It really looks like Peterson should have stuck to his biomechanics business rather than act like he knows how to manage big league pitchers. He is starting to look like a sham. How can every single pitcher on this staff be lagging their career norms?

[rluzinski]

Just because people thought that the starting rotation imrpoved doesn't mean they thought it would translate into more wins than last year. What Looper's record was in 2009 is pretty much irrelevant when talking about upgrading talent.

 

And whenever teams start to struggle, managers get criticised for not teaching fundamentals. The reality is that fans just largely ignore the inevitable gaffs when their team is winning. We just need specific things to complain about when our team is stinking it up and fundamentals is low hanging fruit.

[bklynbrewcrew]

The only way Macha gets fired is if the owner steps in and does it.

[naivin]

The only way Macha gets fired is if the owner steps in and does it.

I would say he has already demonstrated in rather grand fashion, that is something he is more than willing to do.

[hawing]

Well Doug gave Macha the proverbial vote of confidence this AM. Can the firing be far behind?

 

http://www.jsonline.com/news/milwaukee/94439374.html

I don't know that "doesn't see any reason" to fire Macha automatically translates into "it will not happen."

[bklynbrewcrew]

If we do fire Macha I would prefer that we give the job to Sveum and not Randolph. I dont like the fact that Sveum is a small ball manager but at least the players like him. Randolph showed with his time with the Mets that he is completely inept. Randolph is also the one responsible for defense which has been awful while Sveum has overseen a good offense. Of course I have made it clear who I want to see as the Brewers manager but Melvin wont do what is right.

[RockCoCougars]

The Brewers are now 70-92 in their last 162 games. Absolutely pathetic. Maybe Ken could be left home in Pittsubrgh, and his things could be sent to him? I think that it's pretty tough for anybody to defend Macha at this point. I agree with those that Sveum has the better chance to get this team playing well than Randolph (I would have hired Sveum full time in the first place), but I'd say 90% that if/when a change is made, Willie will be the guy. I'm OK with that, because this will be a short term audition, and he won't be the #1 candidate after the season ends, as he would if Macha was kept until the season was over.

 

Macha has been an utter failure as a manager of this team. Everyone loves to bash Yost, but I shudder to think what would have happened had Macha not turned Melvin down the first time. Macha's record with Oakland was much more attributable to Zito, Hudson and Mulder than his managerial accumen.

[rluzinski]

What would be Brewer's record be if Hoffman had performed even reasonably well?

[joepepsi]

What would be Brewer's record be if Hoffman had performed even reasonably well?

A lot better.

 

Firing the manager usually means cashing in on the season. I'm not ready to do that, though I admit time is running out.

[sheethead]

If Yost would have just taken it easy on the coffee this whole mess would have never happened. I would find it quite amusing if the Royals went on to win 80+ games while Macha leads the Crew to 70 or less wins.

[craigharmann]

What would be Brewer's record be if Hoffman had performed even reasonably well?

Much better than it is now. But it's a team game. Some of the losses fall of Hoffman, some of the losses fall on atrocious pitching in general, some of the losses fall on awful defense, some of the losses fall on lack of timely hitting, some of the losses fall on Macha being an awful manager!

[brewmann04]

The lack of pitching has to be blammed on the Scouts and the director as well as the GM.

The brewers needs to focus on Pitching and hit it big in this year draft.

[Patrick425]

I believe that the Brewers were 23-24 when Buck Rodgers was fired in 1982. Apparently, Selig/Dalton had higher expectations for that team than Antanasio/Melvin has for this team.

[YoGasKpose]

What would be Brewer's record be if Hoffman had performed even reasonably well?

A lot better.

 

Firing the manager usually means cashing in on the season. I'm not ready to do that, though I admit time is running out.

Agreed on both counts. I'm concerned about the other options as well. I think we can agree that this team is better than a .375 club. Firing Macha and having Randolph guide the team to 75 or 80 wins is not a great scenario if it means Randolph then gets signed on for another year. I'm just not sure he's the best available long term option. I think Macha needs to go, but it's not like it's an easy fix.

I'm getting closer with Peterson, however. Of course, it's not like good pitching coaches grow on trees either.