anyone else seeing big changes ahead? Latest: Mark A says Melvin is going to be here a long time, Macha will not be fired Monday

[BREWCREW5]

This is not a thread about venting or complaining.

 

It's looking more and more like the Brewers arent going to be very good this year. I have a feeling that if the crew does not have a winning record at the end of the season, Macha, and Melvin will probably both be fired. Prince will probably be traded either at the all star break this year, or in the off season. I think we are going to see a new wave of Brewers baseball coming and frankly I am scared.

 

Here's to hoping that I am wrong and everything comes together with the Brewers making a nice run of the wild card and beyond.

[patrickgpe]

well since macha is not under contract, obviously if the brewers are not in the pennant race in september he won't be back. Not sure about Prince, depends on if they can make progress on a contract extension. I agree that if they are out of it and there is a good offer on the table he is probably gone. The brewers could wait though until the offseason. I'm not going to freak out until Memorial day though.

[hawing]

I'm not going to freak out until Memorial day though.

So, two weeks from Monday. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

The "terrifying lows" thus far this season are hard to watch/attend/follow, and after series like the just-completed one with the Braves, part of me would frankly not mind seeing big changes ahead - if only to reduce the number of gut-punch and otherwise crappy games, or to make us feel like "something" is being done.

 

I just don't know what a big change or series of big changes would really accomplish. We know the mid-season managerial change helped in 1982 and didn't in 2002; but the 2010 Brewers are neither as good as the '82 squad nor as all-around bad as the souls of 2002.

 

Unless the Brewers break out of their rut enough to return to the playoffs, I can't imagine Ken Macha being here by 2011. If the current terrifying lows continue, I would not be surprised (or necessarily disappointed) if he were gone before October 2010. I suppose the same might hold for Melvin, though I don't know if I would want to rush to fill the GM opening with whoever is available mid-season.

[Invader3K]

I could see Macha being fired if they are several games below .500 by around Memorial Day. Randolph would probably become the interim GM, I guess.

 

I think and sort of hope that Melvin is retained at least through the end of the year. Who would be the interim GM...Gord Ash? Like hawing, I wouldn't want to see them rush to fill the GM position, since we're at what seems like a critical turning point in Brewers history.

[Warning Track Power]

Looking into the crystal ball, here are my thoughts about what is realistically going to happen over the next 7 months:

 

-The Brewers finish with a record somewhere between 78-84 wins. An underachievment at the low end and a just about right on the high end. The way above average the Brewers can produce is just a little better than the way below average pitching they are capable of, hence the just about right 83 or 84 win season.

 

-Ken Macha is fired. While I don't necessarily need the over-the-top personality in a manager, I believe this team does. A young ballclub like this needs a little fire and ice in my opinion and Macha is not that. Watching him manage and seeing him in the dugout does little to inspire and despite what we all feel about these guys (ballplayers in general) should be self-motivators getting to play a game for a ridiculously lavish living, I don't think a majority of them are. Just my opinion, but give me a Piniella-type over Macha anyday of the week. Plus the pitching staff under him has really stagnated or even regressed. Gallardo isn't getting any "better" in my opinion and Parra is getting worse.

 

-Doug Melvin stays. I have been the biggest supporter of Melvin, but I have even begun to question his ability to conjure up a pitching staff. An ability to build the bats and strikeout on the pitchers seems to be his calling card. Having said that, Doug Davis has regressed significantly from last season. Hawkins isn't the same either. Parra continues to be an enigma and as I said before, has regressed. This to me isn't a reflection on his abilities as a GM, it's a reflection on the coaching staff. Melvin can pick and sign talented ballplayers but cannot coach them. If Melvin has a weakness, it's in his chocies for manager. I don't think this is enough to fire him when he has done a wonderous job to date working in MLB's smallest market. I don't know...Maybe Ash hires the next manager. But I would hate to lose Melvin when he brought this franchise back from the dead. Let's not forget that.

 

-Prince Fielder is traded....in the offseason. I don't know where or to who, but we all know he won't be here unless he accepts something along the line of the Sabathia contract (5yrs/$100MM). Gamel is the starting 1B next season.

 

-Rickie Weeks and Casey McGehee get long term deals. Despite his little slump, I believe Rickie is going to be here for the long haul and Casey will be signed to a team friendly deal, buying out a few arby years.

[eanelson4]

I think big changes NEED to be made and I hope they are.

 

This could be my crazy perception, but I feel as though this team has been plagued by the same issues holding it back for the last few years. Hitting is very inconsistent (inexplicably bad against finesse pitchers and kids that just get called up from the minors), the starters are borderline awful except for one guy (Sheets --> Gallardo) although Bush has started the last few years strong, the "tweaks" that Melvin keeps making to the bullpen don't work out (Gagne, Riske, Hawkins, etc.). One thing that will be nice, however, is freedom that will come next season from the terrible contracts of Suppan and Hall. I want to throw things at the TV everytime I see Suppan out there working this 2-seam FB over the middle of the plate at 85mph. For a guy whose success is necessitated on control, he has surprisingly little.

 

I think Parra needs to go. He is a guy that has the stuff, but not the mental makeup to pitch in the majors.

 

Honestly (and as much as I love the guy), the Brewers should trade Prince Fielder for some young arms. This team has a ways to go with the pitching staff before it can contend, so there is no reason to pay a guy $20+ million right now. If the team could net a #2 or #3 starter and some nice pitching prospects, that would be awesome.

 

Position players to for sure keep: Braun, Weeks, McGehee, Escobar, Gomez (so cheap and no real options), Counsell (if he wants to stick around), Inglett, Edmonds/Gerut maybe

Position players that could go: Hart (getting expensive for his production), Fielder (if some nice pitching prospects could be netted in return), Zaun

Pitchers to keep: Gallardo, Bush, Narveson, Villanueva, Wolf, Coffey, Stetter, Hawkins (if he can get arm issues sorted out)

Pitchers that need to go: Parra, Hoffman, Riske, Suppan, Davis, Vargas (yes I realize some of these guys are in the last years of their contracts)

 

This isn't exhaustive, but just some ideas off the top of my head. This team has been floating around the .500 mark for the past few years and doesn't seem to be getting any better. Rather than piddle around there, I think Melvin and co. should retool and give it a go with some different guys. Sorry for the novel http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[TooLiveBrew]

I think Parra needs to go. He is a guy that has the stuff, but not the mental makeup to pitch in the majors.

 

He had the "mental makeup" to throw a perfect game in AAA. Locating pitches effectively really doesn't have much to do with mental makeup imho. The most important thing to me is that Manny has the stuff to be effective at the MLB level. He's been solid in relief so far, and I think that once we see our first SP injury, he'll get the chance to show himself again as a starter.

[eanelson4]

I think Parra needs to go. He is a guy that has the stuff, but not the mental makeup to pitch in the majors.

 

He had the "mental makeup" to throw a perfect game in AAA. Locating pitches effectively really doesn't have much to do with mental makeup imho. The most important thing to me is that Manny has the stuff to be effective at the MLB level. He's been solid in relief so far, and I think that once we see our first SP injury, he'll get the chance to show himself again as a starter.

I guess my Parra needs to go comment should be qualified on how he does this season. He had a nice April, but has been brutal in May. A full season in relief (or close to it) should give us an idea on how he may pan out.

 

Also, there have been piles of guys who have played well at AAA that just couldn't cut it in the majors. See Ben Hendrickson.

[TooLiveBrew]

While that's true, the reason I feel differently about Manny is he has the stuff. Ben Hendrickson really didn't have the kind of stuff Manny does.

[BrewCrewForever]

If they contine to fall, I want big changes. I want to see a lot of our good AA and AAA talent up and the veterans on this team that have no future with the team traded. I wouldn't make those moves yet, but in another month or so if they are not within 5 games or less of the division or wild card, something has to be done.

[Warning Track Power]

To me there is a point where you cut your losses and I think we are reaching that point with Manny. Sometimes the only way someone gets it is through a change of scenery like Jorge De La Rosa and to a lesser extent JJ Hardy. De La Rosa was atrocious in Milwaukee and I don't think would've figured it out here. JJ's attitude demanded a new scene. Unfortunately, sometimes you have to let these guys go and know they may turn it around somewhere else and we've been pretty fortunate in this regard i.e Casey McGehee, Scott Podsednik, Derrick Turnbow and the first go round with Doug Davis.

[eanelson4]

JJ's attitude demanded a new scene.

A little OT, but what was up with JJ's attitude? I didn't notice anything last year. Were there rumors that he was a clubhouse cancer or something?

[Warning Track Power]

JJ's attitude demanded a new scene.

A little OT, but what was up with JJ's attitude? I didn't notice anything last year. Were there rumors that he was a clubhouse cancer or something?

Well I re-read the article about JJ's attitude and I misread it a little bit. I thought the part in 2005 when he hurt his shoulder was about his 2009 demotion, but even in the article he points out he wanted out of Milwaukee. Still a good read. For the record, I wish JJ was still in Milwaukee as I think Alcides is gonna be just a guy. I hope I'm wrong.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I believe JJ played poorly because he knew his time was running out in Milwaukee and he couldnt just relax and play. Its not easy to keep hearing about the guy that is about to replace you and concentrate on the job at hand.

[Fatter than Joey]

well since macha is not under contract, obviously if the brewers are not in the pennant race in september he won't be back.

 

He got extended this off-season he would in fact need to be fired. Out of a cannon into Lake Michigan preferably.

 

While that's true, the reason I feel differently about Manny is he has the stuff. Ben Hendrickson really didn't have the kind of stuff Manny does.

 

I agree, and I think a good time to trade would be when some other team believes Parra has value. If we keep Parra and he turns it around that would super, if we trade him when he still has value, and he does well for his new team, so be it. If we trade Parra when his value is minimal then that sorta sucks.

[dlk9s]

the starters are borderline awful except for one guy (Sheets --> Gallardo)

The starting rotation in its current form is far from borderline awful. In fact, it's pretty solid, innings issues to this point aside. When your worst starter is Doug Davis, that's not too bad. No, it's not one of the best in the league or anything, but to say it's borderline awful is way overstating things.

[pitchleague]

I feel that Parra is Jorge de la Rosa ver. 2.0 right now. If we give him up, he could thrive under new tutelage and getting older/more experienced.

 

I don't know if trading him is the right or wrong thing to do, though.

[monty57]

I agree there will be big changes, but if we had a Stud #1 to go with Yo and Wolf at the top of our rotation, we'd be in the playoffs this year, so I don't want to see the team blown up.

 

-Macha should be gone, and he probably should have been gone prior to this season

 

-I hope Melvin's back. He's turned the team around and I think has done pretty well given his budget and where the organization was when he got here. Plus, I don't have faith that we'd get someone better in a replacement.

 

-Fielder will be gone as Boras won't negotiate in good faith. I hope he's traded when he gets the most return, which in my mind would be a month before trade deadline this season (similar to CC Sabathia deal but on the other side) if we're out of it, or at the latest this offseason.

 

-If we're out of it, in addition to Fielder, a lot of our team could be dealt (Zaun, Hart, Edmonds, Gerut, Bush, Davis, Hoffman, Vargas, etc.) while still holding onto the core part of our team (Braun, Weeks, McGehee, Escobar, Gomez, Yo, Wolf, etc.). This would bolster our farm and free up salary, while allowing our "MLB-ready" minor leaguers to get some PT before next year.

 

-I hope Parra doesn't get traded, as he is one of the few SPs we have who has #1/2 stuff. If he were on another team, we'd hear cries that he is exactly the type player we should target.

 

-Finally, we should have over $40MM in free cash after this season. This will go a long ways in extending core players and upgrading holes in the roster (SP, 1B, RF) through trades or FA.

 

I guess other than Prince, we will see much of our core around for a while. I just hope we're able to upgrade the players around our core enough to get us back to the playoffs. Finding a way to get a #1/2 pitcher to complement Yo would be a good start, but that may be easier said than done, even with a trading chip like Prince Fielder.

[bklynbrewcrew]

We need to put Parra in the rotation now to see if we can salvage him. The guy has the best stuff on the roster and if we trade him now we will get garbage in return. Might as well see what he has and put him in the rotation for the rest of the season instead of wasting him in the bullpen.

[monty57]

Good point bklyn, but unfortunately I don't see it happening unless someone gets hurt. That is another reason for selling this year. If Bush and/or Davis were traded, Parra and possibly someone from the minors would get some much needed MLB starts.

[WisconsinSportsRule]

I'm actually hoping we get changes because the organization isn't going to succeed unless we can develop starting pitching. Although I doubt Seid gets replaced and nor should he, but the franchise's future success is squarely on its pitching.

 

I've never really liked Macha and the fact that he doesn't like to go with his young guys. I don't think Melvin would be fired although I can't say I'd be incredibly upset if they did let him go. It's just a matter of finding someone better which can be tough.

 

Obviously, I don't want the team to suck, but at least you'd get some firings that way. It's not like I'm hoping we stink for a while just to make changes.

[WisconsinSportsRule]

We need to put Parra in the rotation now to see if we can salvage him. The guy has the best stuff on the roster and if we trade him now we will get garbage in return. Might as well see what he has and put him in the rotation for the rest of the season instead of wasting him in the bullpen.

Exactly. Manny is not a reliever and shouldn't be used in tight situations without any experience, but of course he's thrown in the fire.

 

[joepepsi]

The guy has the best stuff on the roster and if we trade him now we will get garbage in return.

Yeah, I'm not ready to give up on a 27 year old lefty with a 4:1 K:BB ratio and 8+ K's per 9ip.

 

Certainly management must feel a sense of urgency about this season. They'll tinker with the pitching staff some more before going into panic mode. If Davis continues to flounder for the next 3-5 starts, they'll prep Manny for the rotation. It's hard to imagine both Davis and Suppan in the pen, so one may get released outright.

 

I agree they'll need to win a lot of games-86+ at least-for Macha to keep his job. If they are floundering under .500 in September Melvin and Macha will be fired. One of those last week of the season things.

[topper09er]

The brewers are not going to trade Fielder until they offer him a contract, probably around 5yr/100MM, that way they can save face with the fans when he rejects that. There are too many Fielder jerseys in the stands for the brewers to just trade him without making it look to the average fan that he turned down 100MM and is greedy and the brewers did all they could. I dont see them doing that during the season, but they will in the offseason and Boras will laugh and then we will shop him. Also, we better be asking for a pitching STUD for Fielder or nothing (someone like Lester?), I really do not want another Sexson deal where we get a bunch of below average players who we could have justed signed or called up.

[Warning Track Power]

I look forward to the days when the Doug Davis' of the world are not signed to ensure mediocrity. Give Parra the 5th spot for the rest of the season. Figure out if Bush, Narveson and Parra can be compliments to Gallardo and Wolf. If not, we are not left to wonder what could be with these guys when they are jettisoned. Hopefully two of them are decent enough to hold down spots.

 

As I see it now, Bush and Narveson are both solid 4s. If Parra doesn't pan out, take the money saved from Suppan and Hall's contracts coming off the books and the inevitable Fielder trade and allocate that money towards another #2 type pitcher. Assuming Gallardo progresses as we hope and turns into a low end #1 or high end #2, having that plus a newly signed #2, solid #3 in Wolf and assuming two solid #4s in Bush and Narveson and that is the beginning of what should be a competitive small market rotation.