Gord Ash Audio on the Prospects -- Your Thoughts?

[YoungGeezy]

I think Lawrie ends up at first base, honestly. Gamel is more athletic, so if they are in the same lineup I'd assume have Gamel in LF or RF.

Dumbfounded on two accounts (agree with the third). The thought of Lawrie being our future first baseman had me puke a bit in my mouth. And not to knock Gamel because he is a good athlete but Lawrie is 100% the better athlete out of the two. I hate eighter option at first, Gamel should be moved to RF because he has no shot to play over Casey but he def has a chance over Hart/Edmonds

 

 

[logan82]

If Gamel and Lawrie are in the same lineup does it really matter who plays 1B. Somebody has to and it probably won't be Fielder. You have your 8 guys and place them so you get the best defense possible.

[BrewCrewForever]

I think Lawrie should move to RF and Gamel to 1B, keep Casey at 3B. Of course if we don't sign Weeks to an extension then I guess you keep Lawrie at 2B.

[endaround]

Given that McGehee is a terrible 3B not sure why Gamel is being moved at this point

[paul253]

So between Lawrie, Gamel, and McGehee, we have a 1B, a 3B, and a RF? I don't really care how it's settled, just as long as it's done with the best defensive positioning in mind. What is going to happen in actuality is that this organization will not move anyone. Gamel will come up as a third basemen and rot on the bench behind McGehee, or he'll be traded when his value is lowest. And Lawrie will stick at second even though we have Weeks, Farris, Gennett, Dykstra and probably Taylor Green, all capable of playing that position.

 

Yes, I have lost faith in this organization.

[BrewCrewForever]

Given that McGehee is a terrible 3B not sure why Gamel is being moved at this point

So McGehee to 1B and Gamel staying at 3B? Okay that's fine.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Ive lost all faith in this front office at this point. This organization totally mishandled Gamel and they dont take any blame for it. Mat Gamel is the type of inpact bat that we need to replace Prince but sadly he will probably never get the chance.

 

Is it just me or is this minor league system average at best at this point and what does that say about the future. With no SP prospects that look like sure bets and only a few potential impact bats I could really see this team struggling for the next 2 or 3 years at least.

[TooLiveBrew]

You tend to be pretty pessimistic, though. I can't share that at this point. I think there will be at least two good SP arms to come out of the system in the next couple of seasons, which would go a long way to SOLVVing some of our WOAHs.

[And That]

And not to knock Gamel because he is a good athlete but Lawrie is 100% the better athlete out of the two.

I should clarify what I meant... as Lawrie gets bigger (and he will put on more weight), he'll lose some of the agility and stuff of what makes him merely an adequate defender right now. Gamel has more wiry body and will never be as thick in the lower half of his body. Over the long term, I think he's more suited to a position that requires mobility. My guess is that Lawrie is about as likely to stay at second as Braun was ever likely to stay at third and if you stick Lawrie in an outfield corner opposite Braun, you're going to have two pretty bad defensive corner outfielders. I like Gamel's defensive instincts a lot more, and I think he could become an asset in the corner outfield.

 

However, as someone mentioned, Gamel could be a huge upgrade defensively over McGehee so I hope the Brewers see the light on that and keep Gamel at third. Then the question becomes, would you rather have McGehee or Lawrie in the outfield? Eh...

[nate82]

I should clarify what I meant... as Lawrie gets bigger (and he will put on more weight), he'll lose some of the agility and stuff of what makes him merely an adequate defender right now. Gamel has more wiry body and will never be as thick in the lower half of his body. Over the long term, I think he's more suited to a position that requires mobility. My guess is that Lawrie is about as likely to stay at second as Braun was ever likely to stay at third and if you stick Lawrie in an outfield corner opposite Braun, you're going to have two pretty bad defensive corner outfielders. I like Gamel's defensive instincts a lot more, and I think he could become an asset in the corner outfield.

 

However, as someone mentioned, Gamel could be a huge upgrade defensively over McGehee so I hope the Brewers see the light on that and keep Gamel at third. Then the question becomes, would you rather have McGehee or Lawrie in the outfield? Eh...

And where does Green sit in all of this? I believe Green defensively is more valuable than Gamel. I would rather stick Gamel in RF with Green at 3B and Lawrie at 1B. Even if the Brewers do not have a 1B option if they trade Fielder this year there should be plenty of external options like Dunn and others to fill the void at 1B for the next 2-3 years until Lawrie and Green will be ready. I would expect to see Green and Lawrie in Milwaukee by 2012 no later than 2013.

[paul253]

I can't share that at this point. I think there will be at least

two good SP arms to come out of the system in the next couple of

seasons, which would go a long way to SOLVVing some of our WOAHs.

 

It's not that I disagree with you, but I am wondering who specifically you mean. I think Amaury Rivas could be one, though he doesn't appear to me to be more than a 4-5 starter. Rogers certainly could be a #1 or #2 guy, but not until his control gets better. Same with Jeffress. Jeffress is a huge question mark right now. The only other two starters I could see coming out of this organization in the next two years are Butler and Anundson. But again, nothing more than a 4 or 5 starter. The best hope I see in the near future is Wily Peralta, but probably not until 2013. At least we have options, though. If we could just somehow find a guy who could teach all of these prospects how to throw strikes, the future would look so much better. Can you imagine if both Rogers and Jeffress could learn how to consistently pound the strike zone?

[endaround]

Sure if Green can hit well enough he's at 3B or 2B but that's up in the air at his point and really they need to get McGehee off 3B as soon as possible unless they trade him after this season. Dunn isn't an option. He can't play the field and is at the age where his offense could nose dive at any time.

[endaround]

I can't share that at this point. I think there will be at least

two good SP arms to come out of the system in the next couple of

seasons, which would go a long way to SOLVVing some of our WOAHs.

 

It's not that I disagree with you, but I am wondering who specifically you mean. I think Amaury Rivas could be one, though he doesn't appear to me to be more than a 4-5 starter. Rogers certainly could be a #1 or #2 guy, but not until his control gets better. Same with Jeffress. Jeffress is a huge question mark right now. The only other two starters I could see coming out of this organization in the next two years are Butler and Anundson. But again, nothing more than a 4 or 5 starter. The best hope I see in the near future is Wily Peralta, but probably not until 2013. At least we have options, though. If we could just somehow find a guy who could teach all of these prospects how to throw strikes, the future would look so much better. Can you imagine if both Rogers and Jeffress could learn how to consistently pound the strike zone?

Butler if he can get enough innings in this season.

[Hate those Rodents]

Why is Lawrie already being penciled in as a big leaguer? His stats tell me he's got plenty of work to do in the minors before we should even assume he'll get a fifteen day call-up in like 2013.

[TheCrew07]

I think Amaury Rivas could be one, though he doesn't appear to me to be more than a 4-5 starter. Rogers certainly could be a #1 or #2 guy, but not until his control gets better. Same with Jeffress. Jeffress is a huge question mark right now. The only other two starters I could see coming out of this organization in the next two years are Butler and Anundson.

How exactly does Rivas profile similarly to Dave Bush which is what you are saying? Rivas throws significantly harder, has more movement on his FB, and has a dynamite change. How is a 4-5 starter his ceiling? That might be all he does in his first season, but he's an ascending player. I don't like the fact his BB rate spiked early this season and K rate declined so far in AA, but he's obviously working on something because he's inducing a ton of ground balls, so I'm interested to see where he ultimately ends up. So far though his starts are skewed by his horrible game on May 6 where he didn't K anyone, walked 4, and gave up 10 hits in 4.1 IP. In every other start he's K'd at least 4 batters... The farther we get away from that start where he couldn't find the zone, the better his peripheral numbers will look. Even with that horrible start his WHIP is only 1.19, there's plenty of reason to be excited about Rivas.

 

As for the rest, because they added Rogers to the 40 man last year when they didn't have to (in my opinion) he'll only have 1 remaining option for 2011, so he's going to be pushed. Every pitch he throws has been described as a plus pitch, he'll be a top of the rotation starter if he quits walking people, a bottom of the rotation starter if he doesn't. Jeffress... well his ceiling is as high as anyone the Brewers have ever drafted, where he ends up, I really don't know and don't feel comfortable predicting his career path. Butler's ceiling is probably that of a #3, his velocity is better than average, he's a ground ball pitcher who gives up quite a few hits, but if he can continue to make progress with his BB rate he could be a solid #3. Anundsen to me is farther away than any of the other players, he's like a Chris Cody, he's going to have to continually prove himself since he has below average velocity as a RHP, he seems much more likely to be a bullpen guy than a starter.

 

Fiers has such stellar command that he could be a player from BC who's fast tracked. He has average velocity and seems to top out in the 3 range. Peralta has one of the better arms in the system, a slider that could be devastating, and an improving change, but I see him advancing 1 level at a time. Scarpetta has average velocity for a starter and his CB is unhittable when he's on. I didn't see him throw his change much but his top end strikes me as a #3 (his BB rate scares me), he's also using his second option year this season (though he has 2 remaining, he had 4 instead of the usual 3). That's 3 pitchers in that 2-3 range if things work out well.

 

The most interesting situations for me personally are all at WI. The Brewers really won't be able to run the tandem system at A+, they'll need whomever ends up there to start stretching their IP limit per season, and while a couple of guys could jump to AA, that means that some very capable/interesting pitchers may be forced to repeat A ball, like a Del Howell. I think Odorizzi's top end is a solid 2, Krestalude has average velocity but could be a nice 3/4 as a ceiling, Bucci apparently throws a little harder than Krestalude but I still think he's in that 3/4 range. I really Lasker, yes it's partly his name, but he's very solid when he doesn't hurt himself and he can swing the bat as well, his pre draft scouting put his ceiling in that 2/3 range, I haven't read an updated scouting report since so I'm looking forward to seeing him pitch. Del Howell is raw, raw, raw... but he's a LHP that can reach the mid 90s, I don't even want to venture a guess where he ends up. Heckathorn is another guy who's tough to project, he's a 1 pitch pitcher now, he's made some nice progress with his slider, he throws hard enough working 94-95 that if he adds a 3rd pitch he could be something special, or he could just be a bullpen guy. Finally Arnett, who's ceiling is probably a 1, while extremely frustrating to this point in his career has been making incremental gains in his last 3 starts, but I don't he's as advanced as a pitcher as the younger pitchers on that staff like Odorizzi, Krestalude, and Bucci, he doesn't seem to have much pitchability yet.

 

I intentionally skipped over some pitchers that could make an impact like Periard, Bowman, Watten, and Merklinger as prospects. Not to mention we still have the suspended Adams and ineffective Lintz from that 2008 draft.

 

All in All I'd be thrilled to run out a rotation of all 2s and 3s, instead a 2, a 3, and 3 5s like seems to be the case most years since I started following the Brewers. I'd love to add some more impact pitching depth to the AA rotation to go along with Rivas and Rogers, but I'm not sure that pipe dream is realistic given Melvin's history as a GM. Even if we don't add talent I'm pretty satisfied with the depth of the system, we will just have much less margin for error. Personally I think Parra will make or break the next couple of years. If he finds his groove then between Yo, Parra, Wolf, Rivas, Rogers, Narveson, and Butler we should be able to compete every night plus have solid depth behind. If Parra fails then we need some lower ceiling players like Narvy, Estrada, Loe, and Butler to really step their game up, and that probably puts more organizational pressure on Rivas and Rogers to succeed sooner rather than later.

[twobrewers]

How exactly does Rivas profile similarly to Dave Bush which is what you are saying? Rivas throws significantly harder, has more movement on his FB, and has a dynamite change. How is a 4-5 starter his ceiling?

My biggest knock on Rivas is that he is already 24 years old. His results in the minors have been fantastic - even with a declining K rate. But I worry about projecting a 24 year old in AA as more than a 4 - 5 starter.

 

Gallardo is the same age.

[TheCrew07]

Gallardo didn't have TJ surgery in rookie ball.

 

Age is more an issue with a college players in my opinion, but in the case of a Parra or Rivas I really don't feel the age knock is appropriate. He's advanced 1 level at a time coming off of surgery, and now he's just a phone call away. Escobar also had 6 seasons in the minors, he just started 2 years sooner and didn't lose a year to injury. Other than injury, Rivas' performances in R ball certainly didn't warrant 2 return trips, I don't think that was really on him, it was beyond his control as his stint in Helena during 2006 proved he was ready to move up to A ball. How different would his career path look if he had hit A ball on schedule in 2007?

[paul253]

Why is Lawrie already being penciled in as a big leaguer? His
stats tell me he's got plenty of work to do in the minors before we
should even assume he'll get a fifteen day call-up in like 2013.

The only thing about his stats is that he is 20 years old in AA. His K's are ridiculously high, but wasn't he in high school at this point two years ago? Personally I think he'll have to repeat AA next season, which is why I thought he should have been playing in BC this year, but I think he has plenty of potential. To be honest he's actually doing better in Huntsville than I thought he would be.

How exactly does Rivas profile similarly to Dave Bush which is what you
are saying

That's not at all what I was saying. Just because Dave Bush is a #4 pitcher on our team, that doesn't mean every pitcher who has the upside of a #4 pitcher profiles similarly to Dave Bush.

[twobrewers]

Gallardo didn't have TJ surgery in rookie ball.

Very true, but the Brewers certainly haven't made an effort to fast-track him either. With the Brewers need at SP, and their recent treatment of Butler, I would expect a more aggressive progression if the Brewers thought as highly of him as you did.

 

However, you will certainly get the "kudos" if you are correct - because you've been banging the Rivas drum for awhile now.

[biedergb]

Re: Rivas and age.

I don't know if age is as important in overall 'prospect-ness' as experience. A 24 yo who pitched in college and is now dominating A-ball after 2 years in the minors is not a real prospect, because that pitcher should be dominating AA/AAA hitters at that level of experience. A 24 yo who was from HS or Latin America, who missed 2 years, should be viewed as a '22 yo' because of the lost years and experience. Also pitchers who repeat a level and then succeed are obviously more of a red flag than those who do well one level and one year at a time. This also applies to a guy like Mark Rogers -- he lost a few years with injuries, and now is finally pitching at AA full time. A good year there, and he can become a prospect. A down year, and he become even more linked with Mike Jones.

[TheCrew07]

I see what you're saying but again the difference there was Butler stagnated in A+ due to ineffectiveness not injury. Josh should have been in AA to start the 2009 season and AAA to start this season. Peralta hasn't been pushed hard since TJ surgery either, he's on the exact same career path as Rivas, only he started at 17 like Escobar. Mark Rogers was handled very cautiously last season, is he less of a prospect because he's 24 as well? Who's the better pitcher today between Rivas and Rogers? Odorizzi another favorite of mine spent 2 years in rookie ball, though I think he's better off for it. The Brewers haven't really pushed pitchers in Melvin's tenure as GM, and certainly none of the Latin players, pitchers or otherwise.

 

Paul, the point is Dave Bush's stuff and peripherals are what projected him in that 4/5 range, his FB never broke 90 and he doesn't have a signature pitch. Rivas hits 95, has a devastating change, and has gotten better at every level, he doesn't project as a #4. He may ultimately be a #4, but he's very similar velocity wise to Yo, I think Rivas' floor is a 4/5 but his ceiling is a 2/3.

[paul253]

but his ceiling is a 2/3.

 

I won't argue. Let's hope he hits that potential.

[RyDogg66]

Given that McGehee is a terrible 3B not sure why Gamel is being moved at this point

Is there any player this team has put out there that isnt terrible at the position they play?

[endaround]

Given that McGehee is a terrible 3B not sure why Gamel is being moved at this point

Is there any player this team has put out there that isnt terrible at the position they play?

Gomez. And Weeks and Zaun/Kottaras are about average. Hopefully Escobar's defense hasn't been over sold by highlight reel plays and he actually does become good.

[TooLiveBrew]

It's not that I disagree with you, but I am wondering who specifically you mean.

I meant that, out of a group that includes Jeffress, Rivas, Peralta, Odorizzi, Arnett, Scarpetta, Rogers, even Butler/Anundsen/Heckathorn, I would be surprised if we don't see a couple of (or more) good MLB pitchers emerge by the end of 2012.