Stuck in Neutral

[strawbossisevil]

JDLR and Cappellan both fit that bill (despite the fact that Crew07 doesn't want to admit that Cappellan was a very highly regarded prospect at the time by Baseball America). Chris Capuano, while not a power arm, was another pitcher that he brought in who was more of a prospect than anything else (only 33 innings in the MLB before coming to Milwaukee). Seth McClung was a power arm and only 24 years old when Doug brought him in.

 

The real issue is that power arms just aren't typically moved around unless they have significant flaws, such as serious control issues. There are some famous exceptions but they are famous just for that reason, they are the exceptions. And quite often those exceptions have led to a GM's head being served up on a platter. The top of the rotation studs typically aren't moved at all unless they get multiple superstars in return.

 

An cost-controlled ace at 400k per year (for three years), is far more valuable to a team than a stud hitter at 10 million per year.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I shouldnt have used the term cant miss pitcher. What I meant to say was when has Melvin ever acquired a young power arm with potential for the rotation other than JDLR? Even a guy like Morrow who is still struggling with Toronto would have been a guy worth taking a chance on. It cant always be Davis and Wolf and others that have no upside whatsoever. Give me a guy like Morrow and if he fails we can at least say Melvin took the chance on a guy with a power arm. I would rather fail on a guy with potential than paying millions for the likes of Davis.

 

How do we know he didn't try? Why do we think Mark A. would find trading a good player for a high risk player and taking a possible step back acceptable?

Didnt we just trade Hardy for a high risk player in Gomez?

 

 

[logan82]

True, but I think it was more of a situation like trading Overbay where he kind of had to go to make room for the rookie. I would have traded Escobar instead.

[monty57]

I think you have to evaluate who was available and in the context of that time frame. Marcum had less service time than Bush at the time of the trade, but he topped out around 91 MPH where Bush was 89, he was 2 years younger and had pitched himself all the way to AAA, the only thing Bush had over Marcum was more MLB experience. Obviously I think you know me well enough to know that I would have preferred Marcum because his stuff was a tick better on all his pitches, his K and BB rates were better, and he was the younger pitcher of the 2. Can I say for sure that Marcum would have been available, well obviously not. However given the context of that time frame, what was the difference between Bush and Marcum in a GM's eye other than MLB experience? Similar pitches, similar velocity, similar mound presence, both would ultimately be pitchability guys... I think Melvin definitely chose MLB experience over slightly better potential upside, and I think he further demonstrated that notion with Jackson and Gross, 2 high floor/low ceiling type players. Also recall that Overbay wasn't the only piece Milwaukee sent Toronto's way, we also sent our own pitchability type starting pitcher in Ty Taubenheim. I would have been happier at the time with Overbay for Marcum straight up than I am with the original deal, even with the benefit of hind sight considering Marcum lost a year with TJ surgery. For an organization that lacked impact pitching at every level, I think taking the highest possible upside should be the preferred route.

 

I may be nitpicking on what's really a good post, but it is possible that Melvin and his scouts saw somthing in Marcum's delivery that would be likely to lead to arm injuries. It should be obvious to anyone that 91 MPH is faster than 89 MPH and strikeouts and walks have been used in scouting pitchers since the game began, so I'm sure they looked at it. Maybe you're right, and Melvin simply said "I'll take the worse pitcher because he's played in the majors," but that doesn't seem real likely. There had to be something more than that, and a delivery that could lead to arm injuries could be a major reason a GM would opt for someone who is obviously inferior in some pretty basic but important stats.

 

Melvin has shown a proclivity for pitchers who are durable. He did it with Suppan, Looper and Davis. These moves were done not simply to get a "high floor/low ceiling" guy, but to have someone who was likely to give you 30 starts a year. When you have had as many pitching injuries as Melvin has seen during his tenure, I can understand why he'd like to get some durable (if unspectacular) pitchers in the rotation. As unspectacular and sometimes frustrating as Bush has been, he has been a mainstay in our rotation, which cannot be said of some of our more promising arms, many of which may never see MLB.

 

I would like to see more promising arms added, and as you have stated many times, they can be obtained, it's just not easy. We really have two shots this year (in addition to our own farm): we can trade Fielder, and we can pick up someone in arbitration who is pricing themselves out of a smaller market. I guess a third option is to use the vast amount of money coming off the books to sign the top FA pitcher on the maket (Lee?), but that's probably too risky unless he'd sign a 3-year deal.

[joepepsi]

It's comical to criticize Melvin for taking Bush over McGowan, even if this was an option. It's been 20 months since McGowan threw a pitch in professional ball. Even when he was healthy he'd pitched less than half the innings Bush had at the time and had a higher career ERA and lower K:BB ratio.

 

If McGowan had come been part of the Overbay trade, today that would be fodder for Melvin critics. Proof he's a bad evaluator of pitching talent.

 

One more thought. Melvin is often criticized for never signing a high ceiling pitcher. In 2005 he signed Sheets to a 4 year $38.5 million deal. That was a pretty powerful move for the organization at the time. He was arguably the best pitcher in the league after his 2004 season and Melvin stepped up to plate in signing him long term.

[bklynbrewcrew]

It's comical to criticize Melvin for taking Bush over McGowan, even if this was an option. It's been 20 months since McGowan threw a pitch in professional ball. Even when he was healthy he'd pitched less than half the innings Bush had at the time and had a higher career ERA and lower K:BB ratio.

 

If McGowan had come been part of the Overbay trade, today that would be fodder for Melvin critics. Proof he's a bad evaluator of pitching talent.

 

One more thought. Melvin is often criticized for never signing a high ceiling pitcher. In 2005 he signed Sheets to a 4 year $38.5 million deal. That was a pretty powerful move for the organization at the time. He was arguably the best pitcher in the league after his 2004 season and Melvin stepped up to plate in signing him long term.

The criticism is not acquiring high end pitching. Melvin didnt draft Sheets so he doesnt get much credit for signing him. Melvin has chosen to take the easy way out in regards to pitching, the low ceiling guys with no upside. As for McGowan I wouldnt be criticizing Melvin if he had traded for McGowan because that would have shown that he tried to trade for top end talent. I never blame Melvin for injuries I instead chose to focus on his lack of aggressiveness in acquiring high end power arms.

 

[monty57]

The criticism is not acquiring high end pitching. Melvin didnt draft Sheets so he doesnt get much credit for signing him. Melvin has chosen to take the easy way out in regards to pitching, the low ceiling guys with no upside. As for McGowan I wouldnt be criticizing Melvin if he had traded for McGowan because that would have shown that he tried to trade for top end talent. I never blame Melvin for injuries I instead chose to focus on his lack of aggressiveness in acquiring high end power arms.

 

So you'd rather Melvin gamble and lose rather than not gamble at all. Personally, I'd rather he only gamble with "house money." In other words, when we have a decent rotation and some depth, then we can take a risk on someone who will be all or nothing. Whether you want to blame injuries, bad drafts or something else, we have been seriously thin on rotation depth recently. Therefore, I would rather Melvin play it safe for the time being. For example, Melvin could have went after Bedard instead of Davis. If we already had depth, Bedard could be the better target due to his high upside. Since we had no depth, Davis was the better choice due to his success and durability in recent years. We should have some pitching depth in the near future, so I could see Melvin going after some riskier players.

[TooLiveBrew]

Melvin didnt draft Sheets so he doesnt get much credit for signing him.

Do you give him full credit, then, for Gallardo (and his contract extension) & Braddock? How about Odorizzi, Jeffress, Arnett, Peralta, Rivas, Rogers, Scarpetta, & Heckathorn? Each of those guys throws hard (or in Odorizzi's case, projects to add enough velocity to qualify) & has pretty good upside.

 

Melvin may have not made a trade to bring in a high end power arm, but like monty57 notes, perhaps the Brewers saw something in McGowan's delivery they didn't like. He did try to nab Clay Buchholz last year when Buchholz was squeezed out of the Red Sox rotation, and that's just the one inquiry we've heard about. I really don't think it's wise or fair to assume Buchholz is the only high-end power guy Melvin has inquired about. As has been noted by others, those types of pitchers are really, really hard to get, & tend not to get traded.

[bklynbrewcrew]

The bottom line is you dont win big with a rotation full of Doug Davis and Dave Bush type pitchers. These are the types of pitchers that may allow you to hang around the .500 mark if the offense is good but there is just no upside with these guys. The problem is that Melvin has always relied on these types of pitchers going back to his time in Texas. How many years do we need to see from Melvin teams to come to the conclusion that he just doesnt know pitching. This is precisely the reason why this team is stuck in neutral.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Melvin didnt draft Sheets so he doesnt get much credit for signing him.

Do you give him full credit, then, for Gallardo (and his contract extension) & Braddock? How about Odorizzi, Jeffress, Arnett, Peralta, Rivas, Rogers, Scarpetta, & Heckathorn? Each of those guys throws hard (or in Odorizzi's case, projects to add enough velocity to qualify) & has pretty good upside.

 

Melvin may have not made a trade to bring in a high end power arm, but like monty57 notes, perhaps the Brewers saw something in McGowan's delivery they didn't like. He did try to nab Clay Buchholz last year when Buchholz was squeezed out of the Red Sox rotation, and that's just the one inquiry we've heard about. I really don't think it's wise or fair to assume Buchholz is the only high-end power guy Melvin has inquired about. As has been noted by others, those types of pitchers are really, really hard to get, & tend not to get traded.

Yes Melvin gets credit for Gallardo and potentially Braddock if he proves successful as well as the other pitchers that were drafted during his time as GM. Im sorry but Gallardo and Parra are the only current power arms that Melvin has drafted that have made the majors so far and Parra is still a major question mark. Maybe some of the current minor leaguers will turn out well and Melvin will get credit at that point in time but that does not excuse his long track record of producing very few good power arms.

[TooLiveBrew]

Parra was drafted in 2001, wasn't he?

 

 

Im sorry but Gallardo and Parra are the only current power arms that Melvin has drafted that have made the majors so far and Parra is still a major question mark.

 

But you're also chiding him for not being able to identify & acquire power arms prior to them reaching the majors, which is why I listed off the guys in my previous post aside from Gallardo.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I think you are right that he didnt draft Parra, my mistake. Are we supposed to ignore his very poor success rate to this point in identifying high upside starting pitchers. I cant give him credit for a bunch of kids that are not even close to helping this team. When the likes of Peralta and others reach the majors and have success I will be the first to give Melvin credit but that wont take away from the fact that he has been a GM for more than 10 years between Milwaukee and Texas and has shown a complete lack of ability to find power arms.

[TooLiveBrew]

Are we supposed to ignore his very poor success rate to this point in identifying high upside starting pitchers[?]

 

No, but...

 

 

I cant give him credit for a bunch of kids that are not even close to helping this team.

 

I don't think that it's then fair to completely ignore the work he has done in acquiring the types of arms you want him to collect.

[The Truth]

I apologize for my faulty memory in regards to my earlier comment about "if Sheets had been healthy would Melvin have still traded for Sabathia". Of course Sheets was healthy at the time of that trade. But my point remains the same:

 

If Gallardo had been healthy would Melvin have still traded for Sabathia? I don't think so. That trade was a reaction to having one of our top pitchers hurt in order to push us into the playoffs. If Gallardo had been healthy, I don't think Melvin would have made that trade that could have pushed us over the top

[bklynbrewcrew]

I think its more fair to look at the 10 plus years Melvin has been a GM than to point at a few promising arms in the minors. Doug Melvin has an extremly long track record that says he doesnt have a clue how to put together a good pitching staff and until he does I will be a skeptic.

[endaround]

Except the Brewers had a very good pitching staff in 2006 made up of Sheets, Capuano, Bush and Davis.

[monty57]

Or, you could say that when he came here he had nothing and he's built it into something. When you have nothing to trade, it's hard to trade for something of value. He (and Jack Z) decided to use a lot of top draft picks on hitters, and they have turned out very well. He (and Jack Z) decided to use some top draft picks on pitchers (promising arms that lit up the radar) and they have not turned out well at all. He seems to realize that there is little pitching depth, and therefore feels that it is important to have durable pitchers rather than high-upside guys who are either injury risks or have a high flame out potential. Kind of a "make sure you can pay the bills before you go to the casino." Now, Looper and Suppan have been relatively durable, but have performed below what could have been expected (definitely Looper, maybe Suppan was expected to implode) and now it seems Davis has fallen off a cliff performance-wise from where he has been the past couple of years, although I'm not ready to give up on him. He seemed to learn from Suppan that even "less risk" pickups still have risk, so he's limited his risk further by going with one-year deals for these stopgap solutions.

 

He could have went a different way and drafted a lot more pitching early on, and we have no way of knowing how that would've paid off. We do know that the hitters he drafted did pay off, and we could debate the potentials of what could've happened if we drafted Player X without ever coming to a conclusion. Had he chosen a different Blue Jays pitcher (if he had the choice) when he traded Overbay, we would have had even less starting pitching over the past few seasons. With the little depth we've had, I'm sure glad we got Dave Bush rather than someone who had Tommy John surgery or someone who's spent most of his time in the bullpen. There may have been some other opportunities to get a player, but they have been relatively scarce.

 

Now that Melvin has built the team from a wasteland to a system with some available talent, and there are some good arms coming up through the system, I'd guess he'll be somewhat more comfortable taking a risk. Thanks to Melvin, we now have a team with talent all over the field. Thanks to Melvin, we have a minor league system with talent that will supplement our major league roster and some that will be able to be used in trade. We should have Yo, Wolf, Narveson and Parra (possibly Davis as well) on the roster next year. If we get someone in a Fielder trade, or if it looks like some of our minor leaguers are ready to make the step, then we will finally have starting pitching depth. Then, Melvin will be able to swing for the fences on a high risk/high reward starter.

[Invader3K]

Except the Brewers had a very good pitching staff in 2006 made up of Sheets, Capuano, Bush and Davis.

Even Ohka was pretty serviceable until he got hurt. That probably would have been a winning season if Sheets, Ohka, Hardy and others hadn't all gotten injured.

[FVBrewerFan]

Or, you could say that when he came here he had nothing and he's built it into something.

 

I don't think anyone is disputing he's done a better job that his predecesors. The question is, can he get this team to the next level? And maybe the question should be can anyone get this team to the next level? He has built up the farm system to a point that almost guarantees this team will be competitive. But to get from competitive to World Series Chanps he needs to do better than one Gallardo every 10 years.

 

Slice and dice it however you wish. Trades, FA, draft... he simply hasn't built a top shelf pitching staff. And let me be cleear, I know that isn't easy in Milwaukee by any means. It also wasn't easy for Ron Wolf to build a winner in Green Bay after 20+ years of suckiness. Different sports, sure, but the analogy holds some merit. Very simply, the job needs to get done. Doesn't matter if luck is involved, outsmarting every other GM...whatever it takes. GM is a zero-sum game. Either you win or you don't.

[nate82]

I wonder if the Cardinals are stuck in neutral right now? Last 10 games for the Cardinals 3-7 so far this month the Cardinals are 5-7 this month and the Brewers are 6-5 so far this month and the Cubs are 4-7 so far this month. So things are not as dire as everyone is making them out to be. The Cubs could be in for a very bad May they have a real difficult schedule ahead. The Brewers also have a tough schedule ahead with the Cardinals probably having the easiest schedule of the three. I'm just worried about the Reds though I'm not sure their pitching staff will be able to keep up with what they are currently doing right now though.

 

The teams offense maybe stuck in neutral right now but if it starts going a little bit better than what it has been doing it should release some pressure off of the pitching staff and the bullpen.

[MJLiverock]

It's not about the last 10 games, it is more about the season last season next season etc.

[pebadger]

I think the real question is, "Is 2008 the best that we can expect from this franchise on a once-in-a-decade (or longer) basis?"

 

If the answer is "Yes", is the reason for that answer rooted in very large part on the simple structure of how MLB works as a business?

 

If the answer is "No", what are the reasons the Brewers have not done better? Are they front-office personnel based reasons? Are there bigger issues, apart from the business end of things that put Milwaukee at a competitive disadvantage with other franchises? Is it an organizational philosophy/culturel issue that has not been overcome due to front-office personnel/ownership issues? And, once those reasons are identified, what, if anything, can be done to address them in the most efficient way possible.

 

I tend to think the answer is "No", but I also tend to think that there isn't (as there usually isn't) a magic bullet to fix this. With respect to the usual point of comparision, the Twins organizational philosophy has been pretty much the same, and the people in charge of the on-the-field baseball stuff have been of a like mind and philosophy, for roughly 25 years now. I think that is a big part of their success. (Along with the fact that they play in a division that is more winnable on a regular basis than is the NL Central. I like NL ball, but I think the Crew would have done 'better', from a purely season-by-season results-oriented perspective, in the current AL Central).

 

Doing what the Twins have done is very hard, as has taken a very long-term commitment to get right. Even then they, and most of the smaller-market franchises, still have to catch lightining-in-a-bottle every now and then to generate successfuul individual seasons. The bonus the Twins have is that they have positioned themselves, on the basis or thier organizational philosophy, to catch that lightning more often than "luck" allows. We'll see how long that continues, and we'll see if maybe the Brewers can eventually build themselves an identity which puts them in a similar position.

[monty57]

Or, you could say that when he came here he had nothing and he's built it into something.

 

I don't think anyone is disputing he's done a better job that his predecesors. The question is, can he get this team to the next level? And maybe the question should be can anyone get this team to the next level? He has built up the farm system to a point that almost guarantees this team will be competitive. But to get from competitive to World Series Chanps he needs to do better than one Gallardo every 10 years.

 

Slice and dice it however you wish. Trades, FA, draft... he simply hasn't built a top shelf pitching staff. And let me be cleear, I know that isn't easy in Milwaukee by any means. It also wasn't easy for Ron Wolf to build a winner in Green Bay after 20+ years of suckiness. Different sports, sure, but the analogy holds some merit. Very simply, the job needs to get done. Doesn't matter if luck is involved, outsmarting every other GM...whatever it takes. GM is a zero-sum game. Either you win or you don't.

What I was trying to show in the latter part of the post was to show that he had nothing to trade early in his tenure to get those "high upside arms." The first step was to build a good system top to bottom not only so that you can promote players to your MLB team, but also so that you have trading chips. When you've got no chips, you can't trade.

 

It was pretty amazing that they got so good so quickly and I think it's spoiled some fans somewhat into believing that we should be even better than we have been. We now have a good franchise with some chips to trade in when it looks like they have a shot at winning. I think the biggest thing that can derail it, and my one big worry about Melvin, is the refusal to "sell" when it doesn't look like they have a chance. It's early, but this year is shaping up to look like a "sell" year, which doesn't mean our franchise is a failure, but rather that we're taking steps to be even better in the future.

 

 

[Omar Little]

"Thanks to Melvin, we now have a team with talent all over the field. Thanks to Melvin, we have a minor league system with talent that will supplement our major league roster and some that will be able to be used in trade."

 

If you include pitching, RF, CF and catcher in your mix, there's not talent all over the field! As far as the minor league system goes, you don't have enough talent in the minors to supplement the ML roster AND use in a trade. You trade your high upside prospects to make a stupid deadline deal(like I could see happening again this year) or in an offseason trade you are screwing your depth and the guys you said will supplement the ML roster. To be honest, outside of Lucroy, Gamel and Lawrie who really excites you in the farm system? Oddorizzi, Arnett and Heckathorn are at least 2-3 years away, Cain can't stay healthy, etc.

 

As for DMs drafting of pitchers, like a lot of people said, I think his evaluation process if flawed. You've GOT to hit on more than 1 top of the rotation prospect in 7 years!

 

Yes, DM has helped turn the fortunes of this team around but I think he's gotten this team as far as they can go and IMO has stunted the grow of the franchise.

[brains and braun]

Several of those pitchers were acquired in trades, and not drafted by the teams you mention.