Stuck in Neutral

[monty57]

That's around what I was thinking Strawboss. We ought to be able to find a RF/1B who can hit 25-30 HR on the FA market pretty cheap, lessening the dropoff from losing Fielder. Then, we look for a team with a SP who is somewhat expensive (maybe a former FA with 1-2 years left, maybe someone in arbitration on a low budget team like Florida or Tampa) and see if we can get the pitcher for little in return as long as we eat the salary, like Javier Vazquez from Atlanta this past offseason, or Harden to the Cubs the year before. By the time that pitcher's off our books in a year or two, more of our minor league pitchers would be ready. I don't want to cripple ourselves by signing a long-term big money deal to a free agent, but we should have excess money for the next couple of years.

 

Where we are now, we can add a few players and turn into a good team. Where we were six or seven years ago, we needed to rebuild the entire system. Ridding ourselves of a lot of bad contracts should allow us to add talent where needed, while filling in good players from the minors.

[strawbossisevil]

Derrick Lee, Magglio Ordoñez, and Carlos Peña come to mind as potential FA options to fill 1B/RF (with Gamel filling in the other position). Maggs might be able to be had on a 1 or 2 year deal (as he will be 37). Lee on a 2 year deal (35).

[NievesNoNO]

Nice breakdowns Strawboss. Seeing it in that perspective certainly makes things seem more optimistic. For some reason I hadn't realized how much salary space we can potentially clear. For the most part I'd like to run with the guys you have listed. Let's see what the young guys can do. I'm not counting this season as lost yet, but at least if it doesn't turn around there are some things to look forward to. If we're not in it come the deadline I too would like to see Coffey moved and hopefully Fielder and Hawkins as well. Instead of using that freed up money to sign free agents next year maybe you keep that flexibility in hopes of extending some of your own guys if it's warranted. Weeks, McGehee, maybe Gomez and Escobar.

[monty57]

Agreed on the extensions. I just hope the Brewers' brass makes a decision on Fielder soon, so we can get Rickie extended now and potentially work on others this offseason.

 

We'd better not spend $40MM on FAs unless we're getting two CC Sabbathia-type pitchers on 2-4 year deals :-)

[TheCrew07]

While Melvin certainly hasn't proven himself as savvy at developing pitching as a GM, he has many other strengths. His ability to pluck players off waivers is nothing short of amazing, for example. So does he get credit in your eyes, TheCrew07 (or anyone else's), for attempting to augment a weakness of his through his selection of Scouting Director? In mine he certainly does... and while I don't want to continue to see guys like Davis signed, I think we need to give the young arms in the system a chance to develop before we cut ties with Melvin.

Had he fired Z and then hired Seid you might be onto something. However all he did was hire the best remaining member of the scouting dept to become the scouting director after Z left with his posse. I agree that Z and Melvin appear to be very similar GMs and have said as much going back to the GM ranking thread.

 

Even if Melvin turned the focus more towards pitching with a directive of some sort we don't know about, it's awfully late in the game for the draft to have any impact with the first wave of talent as 4 years with that talent have already passed us bye, 5 counting this season. Again I'm not referring to last year or the year before, this situation goes back as long as he's been the GM.

 

He's certainly been very good at picking up pieces that contribute off of the scrap heap, McGehee is just the latest installment. However, I don't see how that's relevant to the point I've been hammering home on pitching for the last 2 + years now. We needed impact pitching talent to pair with Sheets and Yo, nothing has changed on that front since he's been the GM of the Brewers or even going back to his time as GM of the Rangers.. In fact the system, which has been woeful at producing pitching, actually produced the only impact pitcher who's been added to the rotation in his tenure, it was great getting to respectable, now I want to play for a WS.

 

As the GM he's ultimately responsible for this mess. He's certainly had his opportunities to buy pitchers for reasonable value like when Hart was in demand for example, but he didn't. I'm not talking about a big name pitcher, I've never wanted to acquire those guys. I'm talking about prospect/unproven pitching which was readily available until the last couple of seasons, and no I don't mean David Price type prospect talent. I'm talking about guys like Niemann who didn't have a home because there wasn't room enough in the TB rotation while being stuck in AAA... a young pitcher with a great arm and good stuff on the rise. It's really not that difficult to uncover that type of talent, I can do it from browsing the MiLB leader boards and looking at career trends, actual scouts should be able to do a much better job.

 

I think the organization taking another step forward or backward has nothing to do Prince leaving but has everything to do with the state of the rotation. We are rapidly approaching the day when we will have the 4th or 5th best rotation in the division, even on paper. I'll address the earlier prospect post later, but I'll say this now, true organizational flexibility comes from having multiple options for key positions, not from payroll flexibility, and pitching is power. I don't not believe it prudent to sit on your hands and hope that the pitching works out. I think the situation with Yo and Parra is about right... for every prospect that succeeds one is going to fail, at least initially with his first organization. So with that idea in mind I'm very much into impact depth and I'm not very big on sitting on my hands waiting for a perfect wave of pitching prospects to pan out.

[Baldkin]

it was great getting to respectable, now I want to play for a WS.

Every season?

Or just take a shot at it when it seems like everything clicks and play for a winning season every year?

2008 they went for it. Sheets got hurt, and Sveum started Jeff Suppan in the most important game in 25 years.

 

I just wonder how anyone who isn't a Yankees or a Red Sox fan can have those types of expectations.

 

The Brewers have 3 teams in their division who spend significantly more money than they do on players. I don't think this can be said enough.

[The Truth]

Ask yourself this: if Ben Sheets had been healthy and pitching like an ace in the summer of 2008, would Melvin still have made the Sabathia trade? Doing so would have put the Brewers in a legit spot to potentially win the World Series.

 

I don't think that Melvin would have made that trade then... the goal being, in general, to be good enough to make the playoffs, "field a competitive team" etc, and generally get fans excited enough to come to the ballpark

 

The moves since then reflect that ethos, being mostly concerned with "pleasing the fans" & "fielding a competitive team", no sense of rebuilding even for a year or two, thus a team now that is "stuck in neutral"

[Baldkin]

Ask yourself this: if Ben Sheets had been healthy and pitching like an ace in the summer of 2008, would Melvin still have made the Sabathia trade? Doing so would have put the Brewers in a legit spot to potentially win the World Series.

 

I don't think that Melvin would have made that trade then... the goal being, in general, to be good enough to make the playoffs, "field a competitive team" etc, and generally get fans excited enough to come to the ballpark

Um... when they made the trade: Sheets: 10-2, 2.77 ERA, 97K, 26BB in 117 IP.

I'm pretty sure he was healthy and pitching like an ace.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Ask yourself this: if Ben Sheets had been healthy and pitching like an ace in the summer of 2008, would Melvin still have made the Sabathia trade? Doing so would have put the Brewers in a legit spot to potentially win the World Series.

Sheets was healthy when he made the trade. He started the All-Star game a week or so later.

[TooLiveBrew]

Had he fired Z and then hired Seid you might be onto something. However all he did was hire the best remaining member of the scouting dept to become the scouting director after Z left with his posse.

 

Color me unsurprised that you can't find any room to praise Melvin here. He's in a no-win situation with you. Even when he makes a decision that would appear to match up with your own (Seid), you still find a reason why he gets no credit. Melvin could have hired any one of numerous other candidates, and if he really wanted to stick with the bat-first philosophy, I'm sure there was more than one option on his candidate list. But he didn't -- he made the hire that would appear to please you.

 

 

I'm talking about prospect/unproven pitching which was readily available until the last couple of seasons, and no I don't mean David Price type prospect talent. I'm talking about guys like Niemann who didn't have a home because there wasn't room enough in the TB rotation while being stuck in AAA... a young pitcher with a great arm and good stuff on the rise. It's really not that difficult to uncover that type of talent, I can do it from browsing the MiLB leader boards and looking at career trends, actual scouts should be able to do a much better job.

 

It does seem easy for you to identify these types of pitchers, and I agree that scouts can probably do a much better job of it than you or I. The question I will put to you, then, is -- why is Niemann still with the Rays? I recognize Niemann is just one example, but your scenarios always are presented as so easy, so black & white. Just go out & get Niemann! Are you really of the belief that pitching like this is so readily available? Is the answer really that every single other MLB team that was looking for this type of pitching is just too ineptly run to nab someone like Niemann? Or maybe, just maybe, the Rays didn't want to part with Niemann as freely as you seem to indicate they would have been. "Pay any cost" to get the arm you want doesn't seem like a wise organizational strategy to me, especially given the volatile nature of pitching injuries.

 

Maybe the Rays -- the model franchise in terms of how it's run imho -- were very aware of Niemann's value to both the league & themselves, and demanded more than he is really worth in trade, or just more than any other GM was willing to pay. To me, that would explain why he's still in Tampa (though I admit to not knowing about injuries or other extenuating circumstances that may have been involved in him staying) much better than that MLB GMs (Melvin included) after young talented SPing are just dolts & can't get the job done. Look at how Boston handled Clay Buchholz. He was another guy in a similar situation to Niemann, and Buchholz even spoke about it at one point last season:

"I’m physically healthy to be up there and be able to help that team," Buchholz continued. "If not [the Red Sox], then I want be in the big leagues and I do want to be go where I’ll be able to play and go and pitch every fifth day."

It appears the Red Sox went out of their way to not deal Buchholz, even risking souring him on the organization & perhaps demanding a trade. If I had to bet on the Niemann situation, I would bet that the Rays handled it quite similarly... holding onto a talented & valuable young arm unless some team swooped in & made an offer too good to refuse.

 

 

So with that idea in mind I'm very much into impact depth and I'm not very big on sitting on my hands waiting for a perfect wave of pitching prospects to pan out.

 

This doesn't make sense to me. You want impact depth, but you don't want to wait for it to develop? The only way young, impact pitching seems to get traded now is for other impact pitching. I'm not sure if you're maybe suggesting the Brewers package Odorizzi & Arnett or something for a more high-caliber arm. I think I might have just missed your point in that sense.

The other part of this statement that bothers me is your continuing assertion that Melvin doesn't explore trade scenarios. It's an irrefutable claim, just as the other end of the spectrum is unprovable. I can just as easily claim that Melvin is doing everything he can & exploring every possible scenario, and have absolutely no way to back it up as well. However, I actually can bring a bit of meat with regards to Buchholz. Tom Haudricourt tweeted last fall that,

"Melvin said he didn't ask for Bard or Buccholz from Boston for Hardy. Said those names came up during talks back in July, not last week."

So there's some tangible evidence for you that Melvin tried to get Buchholz from the Red Sox last July, precisely in the kind of circumstances that you complain he fails to act upon. I'm almost expecting an explanation from you as to why that's not good enough from Doug.

 

Again, what you're calling for to be done appears to have happened -- the organization has re-prioritized projectable pitching as top dog. But it just happened last year. I understand that part of your point is that you're frustrated it took so long; I can't begrudge you that. I guess all I ask of you is the ability/humility to admit that the organization has pointed its rudder in the direction you've been calling for, and give Melvin the tiniest shred of credit here, which imo he absolutely deserves (especially from you).

EDIT: Gah, sorry for the monster post. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

[bklynbrewcrew]

TLB, is it too much too ask for Melvin to have acquired any high upside young pitching via trade as GM? The only power SP arm that he has acquired was DLR and he was not exactly a cant miss guy. There have been several high upside starting pitchers traded such as Matt Garza and Edwin Jackson. Melvin might have been able to acquire Garza for Hardy/Hart plus minor league filler. Im sure it would have hurt at the time to trade Hardy or Hart but thats the type of risk Melvin never seems to take. He is always taking the easy way out by signing the Davis' and Loopers of the world while smart organizations like Tampa acquire guys like Garza. Melvin has this love affair with soft tossers that goes back to his days in Texas and its killed us.

 

I realize its not easy to acquire young power arms but it does happen, unfortunately Melvin is too busy chasing the Doug Davis' of the world in free agency. To get that power arm Melvin would have to sacrifice a bat at peak value instead of waiting until its too late in the case of Hardy and Hart.

[RockCoCougars]

Arnett - Arrival time, 2012/2013. Projects to be a middle of the rotation starter. Arrival time could depend on how fast Brewers push him.

I admittedly haven't been following him much, but if that's all Arnett projects to be, seems like a wasted first round pick already less than a year out.

[TheCrew07]

Color me unsurprised that you can't find any room to praise Melvin here.

To each his own I guess. He didn't reach outside the organization, he just hired the best available candidate from within the organization, a rather reactionary move in my opinion. I like Seid, but he's not going to save Milwaukee's pitching situation in the next 3 years. I'm not ready to anoint Reid as the the pitching savior yet either, I liked the Arnett pick but he's been horrible since he signed, Heckathorn has struggled in his last 3 appearance in a row, and the jury is still out on Hall. Retaining Z was an excellent move as well, but in the end it didn't do much for Miwaukee's pitching situation, if the impact pitchers don't make it through the system, Melvin still has to find a way to replace that talent. Obviously I liked his scouting directors, I'm a huge fan of our minor league system, but retaining/hiring a solid scouting director doesn't absolve him from his responsibility to address and resolve the organization's weaknesses as a whole. If he doesn't fix it, who will?

He's in a no-win situation with you.

What has he done wise pitching wise to praise? I've given him plenty of props for his work on the waiver wire and with the position players, but he's done nothing for the top of the rotation. I'm not going to reach and claim Capellan was a top of the rotation talent, Atlanta just doesn't make those kind of mistakes. He's in a no win situation because he's literally done nothing but sign free agents and trade for rentals, and I've more than adequately explained my position on those ideas in the past.

This doesn't make sense to me. You want impact depth, but you don't want to wait for it to develop?

You misunderstood my point, we've been in this position as an organization before, back in 2003. A couple of very nice pitchers in AA, prospects all the way down through Helena, and none of those guys, not a single one, made an impact for Milwaukee. Melvin watched all those starters get released, get traded, get hurt, or become ineffective. I feel he's pretty much going to do the same thing now, sit on his hands hoping the prospects pan out and fill out the rotation for him. I'd much rather he aggressively pursue that kind of talent, it can always be moved later if the farm system actually comes through. This is exactly what TB did acquiring Jackson, Kazmir, and Garza while continuing to draft and develop pitching from within the organization. When TB had enough depth, they dealt Jackson and Kazmir opening up room in their rotation for their prospects. Simply put, I'd rather not just leave it to chance again hoping all of the young pitchers pan out.

The other part of this statement that bothers me is your continuing assertion that Melvin doesn't explore trade scenarios. It's an irrefutable claim,

I think the evidence is pretty clear. I'd be more than happy to give him the benefit of the doubt if he'd ever have traded for a high risk/high reward player since JDLR. Every move has been for the same high floor/low ceiling type of players, I don't make this stuff up, the inaction and type of talent is well documented . Look at his entire trade history as a GM, it's available in an excel spreadsheet, he doesn't trade for impact pitching very often, and the last 2 impact starting pitchers he traded for didn't pan out for him. Of course he's not going to get back much when he's trading players at their lowest possible value like Hardy this off season, Kolb when were jettisoning him, and so on.

 

why is Niemann still with the Rays?

Because Detroit wanted Jackson instead? I would have happily traded for him as well.

 

I recognize Niemann is just one example, but your scenarios always are presented as so easy, so black & white

I have a pretty simple philosophy. I want to sign core positional talent, but I'll move any of the rest for pitching because they aren't part of my long term plan. All things being equal when it comes I'm taking stuff over pitchability, because I firmly believe that impact pitching is king in baseball. Which is why I was very interested in Niemann when TB couldn't trade him for their bat in 2008, his value was at his lowest. I don't have this obsession with trying to get a Ryan Braun at every position in the batting order, I'm obsessed with getting 3 or 4 Gallardo's for the rotation because I believe pitching can be the great equalizer for a small market franchise. So if we're talking Overbay, I would rather Melvin went with Marcum or McGowan alone instead of trading for 3 similar players. McGowan wouldn't have worked out at all, but at least he would have tried to acquire an impact talent in that deal. Please keep in mind how much I like Dave Bush's bulldog approach as a pitcher, but his talent is very average at best.

 

Getting back to my original statement about core positional talent, I would have traded anyone other than Braun or Fielder without thinking twice for pitching (I would have traded Fielder in the right deal as well), I've been saying that all along, just like I think we ultimately traded multiple chances at the post season for a single shot in 2008 by acquiring a rental instead of a lasting solution. Many people think trading a positional player we don't have ready replacement for is dumb because by plugging one hole we create another, but I think ultimately the Brewers would have come out way ahead both in performance on the field and production value from FA. I think that since Milwaukee didn't have the impact talent and isn't able to afford it, you trade whatever it takes to acquire that talent and try to back fill positional holes with FA or prospects. Remember that I believe there is much better value signing average position players in FA vs signing average FA pitching in FA, so I'd rather plug position holes through FA than try to plug pitching holes that way. Melvin and I are simply standing on opposite sides of the Grand Canyon when it comes to pitching and more generally speaking team building, we just don't see eye to eye at all.

Every season?

No. I want to whomever is GM to work to develop the best rotation in the NL, letting the chips fall where they may as injuries will play a major role. I'm not into rental player deals, nor am I into trying to "average my way into the playoffs" because all we have to do is get there to have a chance. I don't think just trying to get to the playoffs is enough, and no I don't think Melvin trades for Sabathia if Yo doesn't get hurt in Chicago. It was a reactionary move.

[TooLiveBrew]

TLB, is it too much too ask for Melvin to have acquired any high upside young pitching via trade as GM?

 

Absolutely not. I just don't agree with the notion that he doesn't really look to do it.

 

 

He is always taking the easy way out by signing the Davis' and Loopers of the world while smart organizations like Tampa acquire guys like Garza.

 

I don't know if it's 100% fair to hold Minnesota's blunder against Melvin, but I certainly won't pretend that I can just claim Melvin shouldn't be scrutinized on that deal. But so should every other MLB GM, basically. I'd have to imagine that if more GMs were aware that was the asking price on Garza, TB's offer wouldn't have got it done as it stood.

I'm obsessed with getting 3 or 4 Gallardo's for the rotation because I believe pitching can be the great equalizer for a small market franchise. So if we're talking Overbay, I would rather Melvin went with Marcum or McGowan alone instead of trading for 3 similar players. McGowan wouldn't have worked out at all, but at least he would have tried to acquire an impact talent in that deal.

How do you know that Overbay would have returned Marcum or McGowan? I don't mean to imply you can't back it up, but do you have any proof? This is the kind of over-simplification I was referring to in my previous post. Perhaps it's not as simple as, 'Well, he should have just taken Marcum/McGowan'

[monty57]

I realize its not easy to acquire young power arms but it does happen, unfortunately Melvin is too busy chasing the Doug Davis' of the world in free agency. To get that power arm Melvin would have to sacrifice a bat at peak value instead of waiting until its too late in the case of Hardy and Hart.

 

Can Melvin really be excpected to have predicted the dramatic falls of Hardy and Hart? Would Hardy's trade value have really fallen that much if he had put up another solid year last year?

 

I know GMs are supposed to have some ability to "predict the future," but Melvin has had a lot of players who seem to perform out of a normal standard deviation. If Davis were pitching like he has in the recent past, no one would complain that we signed him. If Looper hadn't given up a historic number of HR, same story. Riske was an iron man until he signed and suffered a three-year-long injury. Hoffman was unhittable last season and can't get an out this year. Hall and Hart fell from superstar to chump overnight. Only one of our top pitching prospects in the past ten years has panned out.

 

I know the GM is ultimately responsible for the strength of the organization, but Melvin has definitely had his share of bad luck. Thankfully, he seems to have learned a lesson from the Suppan signing, and now is signing one-year-with-team-option contracts on pitchers like Looper and Davis until the young pitching makes it to the majors. He has also seemed to learn from the Hall mistake and Hart near-mistake and is only offering extensions to players like Braun and Yo. He's also drafting pitching early and often over the past few years, so the injuries have taught him to amass as many young pitchers as possible.

 

I've been negative an inordinate amount of time lately, but I'm still positive on the future of the franchise. I hope they're not too stubborn to "sell" this year, which will make the team even stronger for the future.

[BrewCrewForever]

strawboss, really liked your recap of our prospects. It makes me feel optimistic that with that group coming, our core players on the big club now and the players we can get back for Prince in a trade that our team can be back in the playoffs soon and sustain some success.

[TheCrew07]

How do you know that Overbay would have returned Marcum or McGowan? I don't mean to imply you can't back it up, but do you have any proof? This is the kind of over-simplification I was referring to in my previous post. Perhaps it's not as simple as, 'Well, he should have just taken Marcum/McGowan'

* Side note, I have no idea why but responding to your posts somehow messes with my font and font size. I apologize in advance if this is hard to read. I spent quite a bit of time of fixing the last one as best as I could, I'm going to save the time on this post.

 

I think you have to evaluate who was available and in the context of that time frame. Marcum had less service time than Bush at the time of the trade, but he topped out around 91 MPH where Bush was 89, he was 2 years younger and had pitched himself all the way to AAA, the only thing Bush had over Marcum was more MLB experience. Obviously I think you know me well enough to know that I would have preferred Marcum because his stuff was a tick better on all his pitches, his K and BB rates were better, and he was the younger pitcher of the 2. Can I say for sure that Marcum would have been available, well obviously not. However given the context of that time frame, what was the difference between Bush and Marcum in a GM's eye other than MLB experience? Similar pitches, similar velocity, similar mound presence, both would ultimately be pitchability guys... I think Melvin definitely chose MLB experience over slightly better potential upside, and I think he further demonstrated that notion with Jackson and Gross, 2 high floor/low ceiling type players. Also recall that Overbay wasn't the only piece Milwaukee sent Toronto's way, we also sent our own pitchability type starting pitcher in Ty Taubenheim. I would have been happier at the time with Overbay for Marcum straight up than I am with the original deal, even with the benefit of hind sight considering Marcum lost a year with TJ surgery. For an organization that lacked impact pitching at every level, I think taking the highest possible upside should be the preferred route.

 

I would have been fine with Overbay and Taubenheim for Dustin McGowan as a deal as well, he was the #48 prospect in all of baseball at a time when pitching prospects and prospects in general weren't highly valued the way they are now. he had a live a great stuff, but had been stalled out in AA for 3 years, I would have liked to see what would have happened with him pitching under Maddux. As it turned out that would have been a pretty bad trade for Milwaukee, but I could have lived with it for the reasons previously mentioned.

 

The more I saw Gross play, read about Jackson, and saw out of Bush, the less I liked that deal. I was very high on the trade initially because I honestly didn't know much about prospects and how to evaluate them at the time. I automatically thought being drafted in the first round meant that you were very talented like in the NFL draft, at the time I didn't realize that teams would make "safe" picks hoping to push those players quickly to MLB, which is definitely what Gross, Jackson, and Bush were as players. Ultimately the more I reflected on the trade and stats of the players we acquired, the more I just ended up thinking "that's it?" That trade, coupled with the failures of Hendrickson, Eveland, and Sarfate really piqued my interest in pitching, I didn't want to be fooled anymore by hype, I wanted to form my own opinions. That's when I started digging into pitching, switched my reading from BP to BA, and started investigating other minor league systems and how teams were being built. The team building concepts led me into thinking about value and evaluating the FA market, and by 2008 I had a pretty good idea what direction I thought the franchise needed to head, and TB taking off has only reinforced my initial gut feeling once I realized what was going on. TB is my poster boy franchise for how to build an MLB team, and will likely remain so until the economics of baseball drastically change.

 

A note on Garza, I feel badly for MN, at the time of the trade they were actually getting the player with the higher upside back in Young, that was pretty even value going both ways much like the Volquez/Hamilton deal which hasn't worked out so well for Cincy thanks to Dusty, even though I thought the talent moving both ways was pretty even.

 

I bring up a guy like Niemann because I really wanted him and TB couldn't move him at the deadline in 08, he should have been fairly simple to acquire. Given what Jackson was acquired for, I would have definitely traded for him as well. I'm still shocked they didn't move Sonnanstine, I never was very high on him as a starting pitcher, stuff was he certainly the odd man out between the guys on the staff and the players in waiting, but he's been pretty good for them out of the pen this year.

 

I bring up trading a guy like Hart because he was drawing significant interest from teams like Atlanta and San Fran when he was playing well and his talent was replaceable.

 

I brought up Hardy because he was a 4 WAR player with a capable replacement in the minors and we had just lost Sheets and Sabathia, definitely a bold idea and one that is still misunderstood by many. In my little world it was simple, I was trying to give value to get value.

 

I'm willing to trade Prince because I don't think there is any way he will sign a contract extension with Milwaukee and I do not want more nebulous draft pick compensation at this time.

 

I think the theory behind trading McGehee is sound, his talent is replaceable from the system. Again I'm looking to give value to get value.

 

In the end I think the biggest difference here is that all I care about is pitching, pitching, pitching. I'm not into the handedness of the lineup and I'm not married to any player I don't consider to be an elite talent which is why even though Hart and Hardy were 2 of my favorite players, I was willing to trade them for pitching. If we miss the window for signing a player to a team friendly extension, my focus immediately shifts to how to get the most possible value out of that player, such as the case with Fielder and Hardy. I firmly believe that starting pitching is the best way for a small market team to compete yearly with the big boys, and I will argue all points to that end. I will add that I was also in favor of the proposed Hart extension prior to the Sabathia trade, but once that trade went down I had to adjust my philosophy some. My original plan was to use LaPorta and Co. to acquire a young stud on the rise, once those assets were gone, I began looking at moving MLB talent for impact pitching prospects, because once again I believe impact pitching to be the key for sustained small market success.

 

Lastly, if Melvin had made a single move for an impact starting pitcher it would be easier for me to believe he has been actively pursuing impact pitching and just hasn't been able to swing a deal. However, given his trade history and general lack of activity in the impact pitching department, the lack of activity itself is evidence enough for me... there's no trend to support the notion he's even been looking to upgrade the rotation since 2007, it's been the same pattern repeating itself year after year. And truthfully if he has been trying to swing a deal and hasn't been able to get one done, then he's not a very good salesman and he's still not a good fit for a small market team. If he can't deal for impact talent, then he needs to be able to buy it on the Free Agent market, he doesn't have the money to spend on FAs being in Milwaukee, and his FA record in Milwaukee is pretty miserable, but I already hashed that out in a different thread.

[logan82]

I think Melvin definitely chose MLB experience over slightly better

potential upside

However given the context of that time frame, what was the difference between Bush and Marcum in a GM's eye other than MLB experience?

Marcum because his stuff was a tick better on all his pitches, his K and BB rates were better, and he was the younger pitcher of the 2.

Given what you said, isn't it possible Marcum would have cost more than Bush? Less service time and better K and BB rates would make Marcum a more valuable commodity than Bush and therefore cost more in trade, in my opinion.

 

I think Melvin built the Brewers the right way. Taking safe guys with low ceilings got us to .500 and that is what we needed to do to win back fan support. Without a high attendance we would still have a payroll below $60M. The best thing for the franchise right now would have been blowing up the roster soon after Mark A. bought the team but I highly doubt that would have been allowed.

 

I brought up Hardy because he was a 4 WAR player with a capable

replacement in the minors and we had just lost Sheets and Sabathia,

definitely a bold idea and one that is still misunderstood by many. In

my little world it was simple, I was trying to give value to get value.

It isn't misunderstood. Many people, and the front office apparently, didn't feel Escobar was ready for the majors. It could be debated that he still isn't.

 

I would argue that the Hardy trade was trading a guy for a high risk player. Gomez certainly has potential but has done little to show he is going to be more than an average player even including his great defense.

 

How many teams have actually traded for an impact pitcher?

 

 

Lastly, if Melvin had made a single move for an impact starting pitcher

it would be easier for me to believe he has been actively pursuing

impact pitching and just hasn't been able to swing a deal.

Just a page back TLB posted a link.

 

"Melvin said he didn't ask for Bard or Buccholz from Boston for Hardy. Said those names came up during talks back in July, not last week."

I would think it is safe to say if their names came up, he tried to get

them. I think we can say he just wasn't able to swing a deal. There is plenty of evidence to support the fact that Melvin has tried to acquire pitching. We don't have the pitching to trade for good pitching and we really don't have the bats to trade for it either, other than Fielder. There is little reason to believe Mark A. would have found trading players and taking a small step back acceptable.

[rluzinski]

TLB, is it too much too ask for Melvin to have acquired any high upside young pitching via trade as GM? The only power SP arm that he has acquired was DLR and he was not exactly a cant miss guy.

You are complanaing about Melvin because he never traded for a "can't miss" young pitcher? While I'm on board with wanting Melvin to try and aquire more high upside pitchers, the reason those kind of guys are available is because they have warts. If they are pre arby can't miss guys, they aren't available.

 

[Teatoe993]

Do those pre-arby can't miss guys even exist? If they do it's gonna take more than Fielder to get one.

 

Braun & Fielder for Strasburg?

[RobDeer 45]

Thank you rluzinski! Too many of us have a distorted view on trade value. To get a can't miss pitcher we'd have to give up a guy like Prince Fielder (early in his career) and who knows what else. I keep hearing this Hart and Hardy stuff and there is just no way we could have gotten a "stud" pitcher that was almost major league ready. And someone else said it and I said it in my last post but it's impossible to predict that a player is going to go from all star to being benched in a matter of 3-6 months. You just can't flat out expect him to make trades like that.

 

You don't typically trade all star players unless they are with in a year or year and a half from FA. You probably don't do it if you are a year out or more unless your team is falling apart. I'm sorry but this is not Fantasy Baseball where you just add drop and trade guys left and right.

 

I will fault him for not stocking our minor league system with stud arms but until recently he hasn't had the trade bait to acquire these types of players, period. Sheets would have been a good one but his health really killed us so there was no trade value there. Now we have a guy like prince that could (and might have to be packaged with some of our blocked prospects) fetch us a stud or two and I hope he pulls it off.

[RobDeer 45]

Exactly Teatoe993, would the Braves have given up Hansen for Prince last year.....doubt it.

[FVBrewerFan]

Flame out rate on "hig up-side" arms is still rather high. Plus, even if you get a winner, it can take a lot of time. JDLR for example. KC didn't get much out of him, but eventually he ebded up in Colorado and turned into a very good SP. It's not like you swing a trade and boom, you get a #2 tyoe SP imediately.

 

Doesn't mean you shouldn't try, but it's nowhere near as effective as drafting and developing your own SP. And until the Brewers do that, they will struggle to stay in neutral, much less legitimately compete for a title.

[bklynbrewcrew]

TLB, is it too much too ask for Melvin to have acquired any high upside young pitching via trade as GM? The only power SP arm that he has acquired was DLR and he was not exactly a cant miss guy.

You are complanaing about Melvin because he never traded for a "can't miss" young pitcher? While I'm on board with wanting Melvin to try and aquire more high upside pitchers, the reason those kind of guys are available is because they have warts. If they are pre arby can't miss guys, they aren't available.

I shouldnt have used the term cant miss pitcher. What I meant to say was when has Melvin ever acquired a young power arm with potential for the rotation other than JDLR? Even a guy like Morrow who is still struggling with Toronto would have been a guy worth taking a chance on. It cant always be Davis and Wolf and others that have no upside whatsoever. Give me a guy like Morrow and if he fails we can at least say Melvin took the chance on a guy with a power arm. I would rather fail on a guy with potential than paying millions for the likes of Davis.

 

[logan82]

I shouldnt have used the term cant miss pitcher. What I meant to say was when has Melvin ever acquired a young power arm with potential for the rotation other than JDLR? Even a guy like Morrow who is still struggling with Toronto would have been a guy worth taking a chance on. It cant always be Davis and Wolf and others that have no upside whatsoever. Give me a guy like Morrow and if he fails we can at least say Melvin took the chance on a guy with a power arm. I would rather fail on a guy with potential than paying millions for the likes of Davis.

 

How do we know he didn't try? Why do we think Mark A. would find trading a good player for a high risk player and taking a possible step back acceptable?