Stuck in Neutral

[The Truth]

I tend to be an optimist which is a valuable commodity because being a Brewer fan ain't easy

 

I think in some ways the organization might have already changed "formats" in emphasizing pitching in the farm system, we aren't seeing it yet at the major league level because those pitchers are still a few years away

 

Melvin has made some brutal mistakes with Suppan and selling low on the 3 H's (Hardy, Hall, Hart)... *well technically he hasn't "sold low" on Hart yet, I'm saying that dealing Hart after his all-star appearance would have been a stroke of genius. Of course, hindsight is 20/20

 

I think Mark A influences trade & signing decisions based on attendance, which gets in the way of "big picture" long term development

 

As for trading Fielder: His value is going down this season as people are beginning to question his talent level as he's great one year and then just "pretty good" the next. Fielder is also ironically not much of a fielder either. Look at Mark Teixeira's trade value in recent years, and realize that while Teixeira has similar hitting stats as Prince (remarkably similar career numbers actually) he is a gold glove fielder and he didn't bring all that much (relatively speaking) in trade value and I think some Brewers fans (including myself recently until I started researching this stuff more) are a little unrealistic in what they think the Brewers can get for Prince...

 

Melvin's genius signing of Ryan Braun keeps me from calling him a terrible GM

[RobDeer 45]

You can't blame him for not tradig guys in their prime when they are not clos to FA. You'd have to see the future to do that. The theory is you trade them a year or two out from FA, not when they get hot. That's just unrealistic to expect that.

 

I too agree that fielder won't fetch a ton but we could get a few above average players. People who think we should trade people like counsell and hart now, what do you think you will get? A bag of balls and few bats? This all goes back to pitching for me. Pitchers are the most valuable prospect and fetch outrageous amounts at the trade deadline when they get older. You build a small to mid market team through pitching!!!

 

As for the AL Central being bad competition, I don't get that. I don't think the brewers would do any better in that division.

[The Truth]

Pitchers are the most valuable prospect and fetch outrageous amounts at the trade deadline when they get older.

This is true. I think the Brewers would be smart to trade Randy Wolf at the deadline this year... He might bring in even more than Prince... who knows, if Davis turns things around we might even be able to get something for him

 

 

[AJAY]

This is a great thread. I share many of the same frustrations with this franchise's inability to take things to the next level. Even when they made the playoffs in 2008, the team still felt like a mess to some degree.

 

I agree with the idea of building around young pitching. I have serious envy of the Marlins because they have no fan support and yet still manage to build strong starting rotations year after year. It feels like those kind of teams have continually figured out something that we haven't. This is what drives me nuts about Doug Melvin. It's like he can't figure out what the special magic ingredients are. I think he can look at individual parts but doesn't have as much sense as to how they will blend together

 

I really think a veteran right-handed power pitcher is needed to anchor any staff that has hopes of contending on a regular basis. When was the last time we had someone like a John Smoltz or Tim Hudson (in their prime)?

 

I am also sick of the soft-tossing types who rely on command and movement. I am fine with Randy Wolf, but guys like Suppan, Davis, and maybe even Bush just aren't going to get you to that next level. Does any opposing team fear or dread facing them? I don't think so.

 

Also, I would gladly dump the whole Gerut / Hart / Edmonds situation for one solid productive corner outfielder who can play everyday and make an impact. I like Edmonds as a 4th outfielder, but I would love to have a real everyday starter. I think Gerut gets better the more he plays, but I don't have a good feel for what his upside is. Long-term, we need someone totally new in rightfield.

 

I also want to see the Brewers be more aggressive with acquiring players in salary dumps. I keep thinking about how the Cardinals went out traded a bunch of nobodies to get impact guys like Edgar Renterrria, Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Mark McGwire, Matt Holiday, etc. Other than Carlos Lee, I don't recall too many impact moves by the Brewers to add offense either.

[Roscoe Chill]

I don't find the organization stuck in neutral, I just think a

rebuilding process takes way longer than people realize. I didn't

expect us to be a .500 team until around 2010 to be honest, things

happened faster than I would have expected given how terrible the

organization was 10 years ago. The Suppan deal obviously killed the

team somewhat though, if we had signed someone like Lilly instead this

team would be so much better off the last couple years. A lot is going

to depend on what they do with Fielder, Braun, Weeks. The organization

needs to learn how to develop/draft pitching, on base skills and

defense more than anything. I do agree that we should trade Fielder, I

think we should extend Weeks though and roll the dice with his health.

Rebuilding

an organization doesn't mean draft a few good young players and have

them reach the pros and you are done though. Step 1 is getting some

talent in the minors, step 2 is rebuilding the fan base and putting a

competitive product on the field and step 3 is turning some of that

initial talent into solid minor league depth so the organization can

stay competitive long term. We are still in the middle of step 2 right

now, the process is not finished yet.

 

Huh? Ten years ago the franchise was in terrible shape. But they're way past that now. They're now two years removed from a playoff berth. They still have two superstars, and they've really done nothing with them in the fold, save the 2008 run made possible by CC Sabathia. I agree that someone like Ted Lilly instead of Suppan would have been so much better, but still in step 2? I think you are really being optimistic if you think the fan base is rebuilding. I think you're being optimistic that this TEAM is rebuilding. I actually think the fan base has peaked. And obviously we all know the Prince Fielder situation. He's a lame duck right now. Sure, they've put a competitive team on the field, and that's really about it....hence STUCK IN NEUTRAL. It's not going to get much better anytime soon, so the fanbase will start getting smaller...the minor league depth? I don't see anything to get too excited about right now. I think the Fielder return will be very disappointing...definitely stuck in neutral. I'm afraid, hope I'm wrong.

 

And yes, the team really can't realistically contend EVERY year, but the team realistically isn't going to have two players on the same team like Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun either. So, if people think they're going to have a better shot in three years or so than they do now. I'm just not seeing it, all things considered. They're definitely stuck in neutral. Not terrible. Not good.

[sveumrules]

And Mariners fans probably never thought they'd have three players like Johnson, Griffey and Rodriguez again. And then they won 116 games. And got bounced in the playoffs. What a game.

[JohnBriggs12]

Melvin made 3 brutally bad decisions this offseason and several smaller ones. He committed $11 million to two relievers who are a combined 79 years old. Now if he had $11 million to spend on his pen, you'd think he could have done a lot better. He also committed roughly $8.5 million total to Davis and Bush. They'd have been better using that money on one quality starter, than 2 guys that are at best 4th starters and at worst, terrible or just signing Bush but using the money paid to soft tossing, sleep inducing Davis who takes 7-8 pitches to get a hitter out even when going good, instead going for a guy who gets quick outs by pitching to contact, like a Jon Garland.

 

Those errors are so blatant that they should cost Melvin his job. They might have already sold 2 million tickets, but with tickets in some cases going well below face in the secondary markets, they aren't going to be selling a lot more.

[TheCrew07]

What a truly excellent description of the point I've been trying to make for a long time now.

 

The organization has plateaued because the state of the pitching hasn't taken a step forward. Sure Melvin threw a band aid on the situation with Sabathia in 2008, but it's still essentially the same concept in 2010 as we had with Sheets in 2006... 1 stud pitcher and then a bunch of guys. Yes I realize that certain pitchers have out performed their stuff, but pitchers like Davis, Capauno, and Wolf aren't special, and I believe it's foolish to build around mediocrity.

 

People talk about the Twins model, I think that model stinks, they are always just good enough to be in the conversation but never good enough to truly win anything. I'd much rather be where Texas, Baltimore, and Tampa Bay are as an organization then where the Brewers are. Yes the Brewers have stunk at developing pitching, but until recently they didn't draft much of it, and they certainly haven't traded bats for arms like various people from the front office have mentioned on multiple occasions. Unless the idea was always to get to a certain level of competitiveness and make rental player moves with those bats, in which case I completely misunderstood the stated philosophy and think even less of Team Canada than I did a moment ago when the idea they possibly always intended on trading for rentals first occurred to me.

 

Melvin did a fantastic job turning around a morbid franchise in a very shot time, but since then the team has only improved as the young players became more capable MLB players, Melvin hasn't done anything to permanently move the team forward. If he's unwilling to adapt or change his core philosophy then he's not the man for job anymore. Thank you Doug for getting the organization moving in the right direction, but if you're unwilling to address the rotation by working to acquire impact talent, then we're better off without you.

[Invader3K]

I do agree that the Twins aren't necessarily anything to aspire to. They have a knack for making the first round of the playoffs and then getting quickly bounced. I guess that's better than where we've been for the past 20+ years, though.

 

The Twins model may be changing now that they have a new cash cow stadium and have owners willing to spend more money now that Carl "I'll let you move or kill off my team, MLB" Pohlad is dead. I've always thought it was sort of silly to compare Milwaukee with the Twin Cities, a market that dwarfs Southeastern Wisconsin.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think the reason Melvin has failed so miserably to construct a decent pitching staff is that for whatever reason, he doesn't like sinker-ball pitchers. The only guy on the current staff that throws a decent sinker is Coffey, and no doubt Melvin likes the 94-95 mph more than he likes the sink.

 

Most of the Brewer staff feature straight arrow fastballs or "cutters", either of which that when left over the plate tend to cut hands of fans sitting in the bleachers. This type of pitcher has to set up the hitter to get him out. That often takes 5 or more varied pitches and command of all of them every time out.

 

The Brewers need a change of philosophy in the type of pitchers they acquire. For the 3-5 starter spots, they'd be much better served with sinker/slider types who might not strike out a ton and give up some hits, but who can go after hitters by pounding the zone with movement and getting quicker outs. I haven't seen Amaury Rivas pitch. But his stats seem to reflect those of a sinker/slider type the Brewers could use. We can only hope Melvin or his successor doesn't hold that against him. Kameron Loe is another possibility. He's had an excellent GB ratio over his career. Pitching in Texas where the infield can get baked it may have hurt him, but the Brewers should be giving strong consideration to giving him a shot.

[joepepsi]

I don't get why people think Bush needs to be kicked off the team.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't get why people think Bush needs to be kicked off the team.

His HR rate is ridiculous. In a close game, with Bush on the mound, the game often turns with one bad pitch. He's serviceable as a back end guy, but he's also FA after this year. Do you really want him back?

[joepepsi]

I don't get why people think Bush needs to be kicked off the team.

His HR rate is ridiculous. In a close game, with Bush on the mound, the game often turns with one bad pitch. He's serviceable as a back end guy, but he's also FA after this year. Do you really want him back?

Yes. He's given up 8 homers in 7 starts, but 4 of them were in one game. His other 6 starts he has been effective. I doubt anyone will give him a 3 year deal.

 

A rotation of Yo, Wolf, Bush, Narveson, Parra, and possibly Capuano is a good starting point for 2011 planning. And it will be cheap too.

[Invader3K]

Bush is relatively affordable and a decent back of the rotation guy. The bigger problems this season have been Davis and Suppan. There is also the fact that Gallardo, while very good, is becoming like a Daisuke Matsuzaka who is really strong 4-5 innings, but invariably has to leave the game early due to high pitch count, thus increasing the workload on the bullpen.

[monty57]

If anything, I think Doug has failed to read where the market's going, which is what I think was the main point of "Moneyball." Load up on what others are ignoring and sell them when others want them. It wasn't that long ago that people felt paying top dollar for players who only played 20% of the games was crazy. Now starting pitchers are gold. Pre-arby guys never had as much value as they have today, and in the past the thought that a minor leaguer had more value than an MVP-caliber major leaguer was unfathomable.

 

We've got a lot of what are currently not the hot commodities (big, slugging hitters) and not a lot of the current hot commodities (fielding, OBP, young starting pitchers). Because we were so bad a few years ago, we had a run of top draft picks. Had he chosen to draft pitchers instead of hitters, we would probably have more value in the current market. Apparently (according to many here), we'd be hard pressed to get a stud AA pitcher for one of the best hitters in the game (Fielder), while Lincecum could bring back tons of talent. If that truly is where the market is today, then Melvin's biggest mistake was drafting what was hot at the time, and not predicting what was going to be hot when the time came to trade.

 

We will never be able to get the "hot commodities" in free agency, so we have to draft them. That being the case, shouldn't Melvin's free agent targets be what is selling low right now? The last couple of years, players like Felipe Lopez and Adam Dunn (good bats, weak defense) have been looking for a team late into the offseason. Older pitchers have settled for one year deals, so I'm fine with the "band-aid approach" on them as long as we're drafting pitchers and developing them in our system. Again, we started with extremely little talent in our entire organization, so we are going to have some holes to patch. Hopefully, we'll have SP coming up from the system soon, and we'll still have talented position players around them. If anything, Melvin's mistake was jumping on Wolf too quickly and thereby overpaying, but if he hadn't jumped quickly, there's a good chance he would have went elsewhere. Even though Davis is pitching poorly, I can't fault Melvin for signing a pitcher with a good MLB track record to a one-year $8MM contract with a team option. If he pitches well, that contract will look like a steal.

 

In addition to getting a decent return for Prince, what I hope Melvin capitalizes on this next offseason is picking up a salary dump pitcher. I don't know who will be out there, but the Brewers will have plenty of free cash, and it would be nice to trade virtually nothing to a team trying to rid themselves of a higher-priced SP who is under contract for a year or two. It irks me that the Cubs always end up getting these players, and it may be a way for the Brewers to get a good arm at a contract they won't be tied to for 4-5 years.

 

People who think we should trade people like counsell and hart now, what do you think you will get? A bag of balls and few bats?

 

You wouldn't get a ton of talent for players like Hart, Vargas, Counsell, Zaun, etc, but you could potentially get a young player with some upside, salary relief and open up spots for players who will be part of our future. Even if they only get salary relief and the chance to get players like Cain and Lucroy some MLB playing time, it'd probably be worth it. However, I'd guess that a playoff bound team would give something for these guys. Take Counsell... he plays all over the field and he's a decent pinch hitter. He gets on base at a decent clip and he has a lot of playoff experience.

 

I'd think Bush, Davis and Hoffman could draw more attention and return in trade, assuming Davis and Hoffman turn it around. There will definitely be teams looking for pitching, and would be willing to give up some minor league talent for them. I'm not expecting Top 50 talent back, but they'd bring back something if they're playing well.

[TooLiveBrew]

People talk about the Twins model, I think that model stinks, they are always just good enough to be in the conversation but never good enough to truly win anything.

Thank you for saying this. I'm extremely tired of "The Twins Model™" as a talking point. It's just developed into something people say, without much real analysis put into it.

 

Melvin did a fantastic job turning around a morbid franchise in a very shot time, but since then the team has only improved as the young players became more capable MLB players, Melvin hasn't done anything to permanently move the team forward. If he's unwilling to adapt or change his core philosophy then he's not the man for job anymore. Thank you Doug for getting the organization moving in the right direction, but if you're unwilling to address the rotation by working to acquire impact talent, then we're better off without you.

I think the argument can be made that Melvin *has* adapted his core philosophy, through the hiring/promotion of Bruce Seid to Director of Scouting. Seid has clearly made projectable pitching a priority in his drafting philosophy, but since he's only had one draft at the helm, none of the pitching is close to MLB yet.

 

There are a small handful of GMs that seem to be competent in every aspect of the job, so I don't think it's realistic to expect that, in replacing Melvin, the Brewers would uncover the next one. That's not to say I don't want the organization to seek that person, I just think it's unlikely they'll find him/her. With that in mind, and since developing or identifying pitching seems to be a weak suit of Melvin's, I think the appointment of Seid should not be overlooked.

 

I know this is a somewhat tired point, but Jack Zduriencik seemed to receive nothing but praise during his tenure here. All the stud prospects were his saintly doing, and all the deficiencies on the MLB roster were Melvin's fault. Z has/had a similar weakness to Melvin, in that they seem to share the belief that you can flip hitting prospects to acquire frontline starting pitching. Maybe that was once the case, but the market in MLB has changed.

 

While Melvin certainly hasn't proven himself as savvy at developing pitching as a GM, he has many other strengths. His ability to pluck players off waivers is nothing short of amazing, for example. So does he get credit in your eyes, TheCrew07 (or anyone else's), for attempting to augment a weakness of his through his selection of Scouting Director? In mine he certainly does... and while I don't want to continue to see guys like Davis signed, I think we need to give the young arms in the system a chance to develop before we cut ties with Melvin.

[Roscoe Chill]

A rotation of Yo, Wolf, Bush, Narveson, Parra, and possibly

Capuano is a good starting point for 2011 planning. And it will be

cheap too.

 

And I think this illustrates the title of this thread so very well. The above rotation gets the Brewers nowhere.

[Invader3K]

I agree that Seid has been a good appointment, and that the organization seems to have shifted back to an emphasis on developing pitching. I think the big fear for most of us is that it's maybe too little, too late. If Fielder and/or other players gets flipped for some young upside pitching, that could change things, I suppose. It's just a shame that we probably weren't able to make more than a "one and done" playoff appearance while having two potential future HOF hitters in the middle of the lineup. Of course to add to the frustration, Fielder is playing like a below replacement level 1B so far this season, which may kill off part of his trade value.

[strawbossisevil]

I think there is a bright side at the end of this tunnel. I think the Brewers will trade Fielder, especially if they keep scuffling. It's possible that he might be gone by the Trade Deadline for a bunch of very good prospects (including, I hope, a top level pitching prospect). I would also look to move Coffey (who has only one year of salary arby left), Counsell, Edmonds, Gerut, Hart (if we can find any takers), and Zaun. None of those players have a place with this team in their next window (which I think starts in 2012, so we might as well move them for pieces that will help us in that window). With the salaries of Suppan, Davis, Hall, Hart, Fielder (if traded) all coming off of the books, the Brewers can focus on locking down players such as Weeks (and potentially McGehee and Escobar) long term.

I tend to be optimistic when it comes to pitching prospects, but we have a lot to be excited about in the next few years when it comes to pitching, add another top of the rotation prospect or two in the mix from a Fielder trade and suddenly we are looking like we are in very good shape. We are looking at receiving a huge influx of starting pitching arriving in 2011/2012 and solid bullpen arms arriving even sooner.

AAA:

Braddock - Arrival time, 2010. Aside from his May 9th outing he's been un-hittable. He'll replace Hoffman and be 7 million dollars cheaper.

Axford - Arrival time, 2010. He's a very good middle relief type. Could theoretically fill the Todd Coffey role if we go ahead and trade him.

Smith - Arrival time, 2010. Another very good relief type, could be an 8th inning guy.

Butler - Arrival time, 2010/11. A bottom of the rotation starter that could provide solid innings on the cheap.

AA:

Rogers - Arrival time, 2011. He's been wild so far, but the stuff is there, and I think we'll see improvement. Assuming health, at worst he's a great bullpen arm, at best he's a #2 starter.

Jeffress - Arrival time, 2012. He's got the stuff to be a top of the rotation ace. He just needs to stay on the field. At worst he's a late inning reliever, at best a #1/2 starter.

Rivas - Arrival time, 2012. He's looking more like a guy who could fill a middle of the rotation 3/4 slot on the cheap.

A:

Scarpetta - Arrival time, 2012. He's got some nasty stuff and projects to be a #2 starter.

Peralta - Arrival time, 2012. Middle of the rotation starter.

Low A:

Odorizzi - Arrival time, 2012/2013. Projects to be a top of the rotation starter. Arrival time could depend on how fast Brewers push him.

Arnett - Arrival time, 2012/2013. Projects to be a middle of the rotation starter. Arrival time could depend on how fast Brewers push him.

On the offensive side, while we aren't nearly as stacked as some years, we do have a flood of solid offensive prospects in the upper minors and a lot of flexibility as far as positioning with a number of them, and it's possible that in the trades highlighted above that we can add additional prospects to this list (these are the players who will likely make their appearance heading into the next window):

AAA:

Lucroy - Arrival time, 2010. (Although he hasn't exactly hit in AAA to this point)

Salome - Arrival time, 2011?. (If I had to guess)

Gamel - Arrival time, 2010 (possibly filling in the hole in either RF or 1B if Fielder is traded)

Katin - Arrival time, 2010/2011 (could take over the role of 5th OF and late inning power bat, has really improved OBP skills this season)

Farris - Arrival time, 2011/2012 (has held his own at AAA, potential backup MIF/trade chip)

AA:

Cain - Arrival time, 2011 - (Makes Gomez expendable or could move into RF if Gamel is 1B)

Gindl - Arrival time, 2011 - (4th OF type)

Lawrie - Arrival time, 2011/12 - (Could play 1B, 2B, or RF, depending on where the Brewers needs lie)

Green - Arrival time, 2012 - (Another 2b/3b prospect)

Heading into the next window, the only position that concerns me where I feel like we won't be able to have supplied a solid internal option is 1B (as long as we sign Weeks long-term).

C: Kottaras, Lucroy, and Salome

1b: Gamel or Lawrie (will either hit enough to fill this role remains to be seen)

2b:Weeks (if we sign him long-term), Lawrie (if we don't), Farris (remains an option but I'm not sure he'll hit enough)

SS: Escobar

3B: McGehee, Gamel, Green

LF: Braun

CF: Gomez or Cain

RF: Lawrie or Gamel

By 2012 our rotation could potentially include 5 of the following pitchers (there is a lot of potential in #3-9 on the list to be above average, but we only need 3 of them to reach their potential in order to have a great rotation that year):

1) Gallardo (will be in there barring injury)

2) Wolf (will be in there barring injury)

3) Top Prospect Pitcher from Fielder Trade

4) Rogers

5) Jeffress

6) Scarpetta

7) Rivas

8) Peralta

9) Parra

10) Butler

11) Naverson

[NievesNoNO]

JohnBriggs12[/b]]I think the reason Melvin has failed so miserably to construct a decent pitching staff is that for whatever reason, he doesn't like sinker-ball pitchers. The only guy on the current staff that throws a decent sinker is Coffey, and no doubt Melvin likes the 94-95 mph more than he likes the sink.

 

Most of the Brewer staff feature straight arrow fastballs or "cutters", either of which that when left over the plate tend to cut hands of fans sitting in the bleachers. This type of pitcher has to set up the hitter to get him out. That often takes 5 or more varied pitches and command of all of them every time out.

 

The Brewers need a change of philosophy in the type of pitchers they acquire.

I'm not sure if it's the kind of pitcher he aquires or if it's an organizatioal philosophy problem. Probably some of both. I bugs the heck out of me that every single pitcher on the staff works from behind it seems. To me as a manager at the major level and through the minors guys should be taught/required to throw strikes and hit the bottom of the zone. I realize that's something that your taught in little league, but somebody has to enforce it. You don't need to throw specific pitches to use the bottom of the strike zone. I think that's one of the reasons St. Louis and Minnesota are conistently successfull. It seems to me, and I have no stats to back this up, but when I watch just about any Twins or Cards game their pitchers hammer the strike zone. They don't all throw 95, so it's not like their stuff is so great they don't think it's going to get hit.

 

I don't really care about the home runs, although I'm sure those would drop too if more strikes were thrown. Gallardo's walk rate has increased since he first came up. Dave Bush's best attribute used to be his control, now he too is putting guys on at almost double the rate of what he used to.

 

Obviously this is really simplifying things and by no means is simply throwing more strikes a substitute for actual talent, but when you have a limited pool of talent to work with you need to make the most of it. To me not throwing strikes is just mental, laziness, refusal, whatever you want to call it. It's really no different then getting caught trying to steal 3rd with with one out and down by 1. I'm done with my rant now.

 

Feel free to rip me apart for comparing Little League to MLB, but there are some things I believe don't change no matter what level you play at.

[FVBrewerFan]

Strawboss, I'm not as optimistic. Thanks for taking the time to put that together, but it only reinforces what I already believe. That is, all of the above keeps the Brewers in neutral, instead of going downhill after Fielder leaves. I don't see that timeline and the players involved taking this team to the next level.

 

Bottom line, I still don't see an ace on that list. Not to say any one of those guys couldn't become an ace, I jsut don't see anyone you can say is "destined" to be that guy. Even the position players are nowehere near the "lock" to be real producitve at the MLB level like the last crop of Fielder, Braun, Weeks, etc.

 

What I do see is quantity, not top quality- especially for starting pitching. I can see them making moves, bringing some of these guys up, etc. to remain "competitive" but I don't see them moving out of neutral.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I dont really see our minor league system as being anything other than average at this point. I dont think we have any sure fire star players in our system. We have decent depth and plenty of guys who may well turn out excellent but I dont see any sure things at all. If LuCroy is really our number one prospect at the moment we arent all that strong.

 

When was the last time this team has drafted a star player beyond the first round or two? I dont follow the minor leagues as closely as many on here but I dont think the system is all that good. I hope I am wrong and very well might be but I dont think our system is all that good.

[TooLiveBrew]

Lawrie & Gamel (imo) are absolutely impact bats. I think Gamel will stick at 3B as long as the Brewers aren't fooled into thinking McGehee is a good defender there. Lawrie will probably be the one to step into RF.

 

For arms, imo Braddock, Rogers, & Peralta will be strong in what I believe their roles will be -- the former two in the bullpen, the latter as a starter. Jeffress has a shot at being absolutely electric, whether a starter or reliever. It's easy to be really down on him at the moment, but his stuff is incredible.

 

Odorizzi really seems to be taking a step forward this season, and I think he's a guy that projects pretty well in terms of MLB. I don't know much about Scarpetta, but I know he's pretty well-regarded. Seems like he's another guy with big-time stuff that needs to harness his control.

 

I'm not as optimistic as Strawboss is either, FV, but I think I'm easily more optimistic than you are. Do the Brewers have the best system in the league? No, but there's definitely quality in there right now (I didn't even mention Salome & Lucroy) to go along with quantity.

[strawbossisevil]

Giving some thought as to where our team is heading financially, especially if we trade Fielder.

Looking at where we are financially for a 2011 roster (w/o Fielder, no FA signed, and dropping Hart and Gerut - both of whom I don't think will be back in Milwaukee next year). I'm not saying this roster is at all likely to happen (especially in regards to the starting rotation and RF), but it shows how much financial flexibility the Brewers have going into next season if Fielder is traded. (Answer, an awful lot).

C: Kotteras .4M

C: Lucroy . 4M

1B: Gamel .4M

2B: Weeks 5M (estimated)

SS: Escobar .4M

3B: McGehee .4M

MI: Inglett .4M

IF: Heether .4M

LF: Braun 4M

CF: Gomez 2.5M (estimated)

RF: Cain .4M

OF: Stern .4M

OF: Katin .4M

SP1: Gallardo 3.25M

SP2: Wolf 9.5M

SP3: Parra 1.5 M (estimated)

SP4: Naverson .4M

SP5: Butler .4M

CL: Braddock .4M

SU: Hawkins 4 M

SU: Coffey 4M (estimated) (I would prefer that we trade him seeing as how he's entering his final year of arby)

RP: Axford .4M

RP: Smith .4M

RP: Villanueva 1.5M (estimated)

RP: Stetter 1M (estimated)

Total Cost: 42.25 M

Cost of Team this Year: 81 M

Money available for long term contracts/FA: around 40 M

[strawbossisevil]

I'm not as optimistic as Strawboss is either, FV, but I think I'm easily more optimistic than you are. Do the Brewers have the best system in the league? No, but there's definitely quality in there right now (I didn't even mention Salome & Lucroy) to go along with quantity.

The problems with the Brewers farm system is that they lack numbers of top prospect impact bats at the lower levels, and high impact SP arms at the top levels. They have a number of solid hitters at the top (bklyn, a catcher that has an OPS of over 1.000 in AA, is not something to sneeze at as a top prospect) in Lucroy, Gamel and Lawrie. All three should develop into above average MLB bats for their respective positions.

On the pitching side, most who look at our pitching ignore Rogers and Jeffress when evaluating our system. While I understand why they do that, I think that is a mistake. Rogers is throwing in the upper 90s as a SP. His control isn't the greatest at the moment but we have to remember that he is coming back from an injury so his control should improve with time, his ceiling is very high if he is capable of harnessing the strike zone a bit as he gets more reps. Jeffress, as TooLive, pointed out is penalized as a prospect because of his off field issues and control problems, but once again, he can throw up to 100mph as a starting pitcher. If he can tweek his control and throw more strikes, his ceiling is as high as any pitching prospect in baseball. Beyond those two, the real strength of our pitching prospects is found in A ball. There is a lot of talent at those levels, including a few high ceiling arms that haven't as yet put things together and therefore haven't been included in my list above (Fredrickson etc.).

 

And in response to FV, part of what that wave of pitching (RP first, and then SP), and the wave of bats (Lucroy, Gamel, Lawrie, Cain) does for us is it frees up a lot of money. Yeah, if we stood pat and added nothing/no one else, we would probably be one of those teams fighting for a wildcard. But with the wave of pitching and hitting coming at about the same time, we should have money to make an upgrade somewhere. As much as this is probably a dream scenario, if we trade Fielder (and have close to 40M available for signings), we could have the money to sign a big time pitcher like Cliff Lee. Adding Cliff Lee to that list of pitchers would sure make this team's potential pitching staff look very good in 2011 and forward (although he'll be 32 already this offseason).