Stuck in Neutral

[bklynbrewcrew]

That is how I see this team and this organization as a whole. This team looks very similar to last years, where we were very mediocre and hung around the .500 level for most of the season. We still have very shaky starting pitcher and the lack of innings from our starters is wearing out our bullpen which was supposed to be a strength.

 

The biggest question I have is what will it take for this organization to take that next step and become perrenial contenders like the Twins who have had similar payroll constraints. I think to take that next step we have to stop signing stopgap type free agents like Doug Davis. We have to make a bold move to acquire the young power arms necessary to have a championship level rotation. Doug Melvin cannot continue to sign mediocre free agents and expect the staff to be good enough to contend with. We clearly have had good offenses but we have not won anything besides a rental aided wild card berth since Melvin has been GM. Enough of the soft tossers, its about time we had some starting pitchers with upside. If that means trading a guy like McGehee at his peak then its still the right thing to do. We have had valuable commodities like Hardy and Hart drop precipitously in value when we could have had the pitching we need in return for those guys. Would it have hurt to trade JJ or Corey when they were putting up all star numbers; of course but to get the valuable pitching that this team doesnt have we should have taken the chance when we had it.

 

Now comes a very important decision on what to do with Prince Fielder. Prince has been a great Brewer no doubt about it but even with him and Ryan Braun together we have not won anything of significance. We have essentially wasted a huge window with two hall of fame caliber offensive players because Melvin has never acquired signficant starting pitching. As this team currently stands we are probably good enough to hang around the periphery of the wild card race which would probably tempt Melvin and the owner to make stop gap type acquisitions like Felipe Lopez in order to give the impression that we are contenders when we in fact are not. The time has come to make Prince a fair last offer and if/when he rejects it we must trade him for high upside starting pitching.

 

The worst thing for this organization would be to wait out the two seasons and lose Prince for draft picks. The organization needs to see a few years into the future to do what it takes to make the team a real contender. My biggest fear is that the owner and GM think that we are better than we are and will mortgage the future some more just to give the appearance that we are contenders.

 

I realize this message has been a long one but I am curious to find out if others feel as I do that this team is essentially stuck in neutral.

[CWSOmaha]

bklynbrewcrew...I don't post on here very often for a variety of reasons but I had to respond to your post. I could not of said it any better! I totally agree about "being stuck in neutral"! My brother and I have had numerous conversations about this problem with the Brewers. If things don't change within the organization, I don't see us getting any better anytime soon.

Thanks!!

[joepepsi]

They do seem to be stuck in neutral, but I'm not sure the rotation is the problem. Since Suppan was pulled, the last 3 rounds through the current starting 5 has produced an average of just under 6 ip per start, and a 3.75 ERA.

 

Davis is the only one who remains truly shaky out there. Narveson is struggling to get through 6, but that could be a function of getting used to higher pitch counts.

[trwi7]

I think stuck in neutral is a great way to put it. I am also thinking they'll probably go out and get someone like a Kevin Millwood or someone to show how we're "going for it" and they'll keep Prince because for some reason they think they can/think it's a good idea to sign him.

 

I personally would've shopped Prince in the offseason coming off a great year with two years of control left and taken a step back so I could take two steps forward in a couple years. Obviously they thought they could contend. It's looking right now that they were wrong. I just hope they're not afraid to throw in the towel on the season even if they're 5 games out at the deadline. I don't want to see the Brewers lose Prince just for draft picks and I don't want to sign him to a long term deal either.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I see this season being very much like last year where we were able to hang around the wild card race even though were werent any good. I fear this happening again and it will once again fool our management into giving up prospects for rentals. I just dont see this team as being good enough to make foolish deals like that.

 

I also think we will probably just hold onto Prince for the purpose of ticket sales which will end up as a big mistake. The problem is that the NL is incredibly weak and there is most likely not a NY/Tampa situation where the wild card is basically decided early on. I also have concerns that if we do trade Prince it would be a deal similar to the Carlos Lee deal where Melvin feels a need to acquire "major league" ready players instead of doing whats right and getting some AA studs which are far more valuable than the Kevin Mench's of the world.

 

Being mediocre in many ways is the worst possible position to be in for all sports. Being mediocre means lower draft picks and also fools management into thinking they are one or two players away when in fact its more than that.

[monty57]

For the most part, I agree with your sentiment, but I think everything needs to be put into perspective. Not that long ago, we were a horrible organization, top to bottom. Probably the worst organization in the league when you look at talent at all levels. In a relatively short period, we have moved from worst organization in the league to above average at every level. As long as we stick to our guns, we can move to perennial playoff contender. The "first wave" was talented, but it was a group of 4 or 5 players, not 25 players.

 

I think right now we need to pick our moments. When we are a playoff caliber team, we should trade some MiLB pieces to go for the playoffs, but for that to work successfully, we have to be willing to sell MLB pieces to restock when we are not a playoff team. I was upset last year when we didn't sell, as we could have brought in talent from the likes of Cameron that could have helped us now and in the future. I'd also like to have Gillespie rather than the few months we got of Lopez. It's too early this season to consider us "sellers," but I think with Prince we need to make our decision soon, and I'm moving further and further into the camp of sell off this year to field a pretty strong team next year and into the future.

 

Building a system like the Twins requires a long-term strategy, which I think Terry Ryan pulled off very well. The Brewers are on track, as they have a pretty good MiLB system and a solid core of players to build around. If they keep locking up their stars when they're young (keeping them 7-8 years instead of 5-6), filling in the ranks with good talent from the minors and restocking the system not only with good drafts, but also by selling some MLB players when the team isn't going to make a legitimate shot at the playoffs, then we can be a good team for a long time. No one without a $150MM+ salary can expect playoffs every year, but we should at least be in contention.

 

This year, we have Fielder, Bush, Davis, Edmonds, Zaun, Hoffman, Counsell, Coffey, Vargas and Hart who could be traded as they probably don't play into the future of the franchise (assuming Prince won't sign). Some of these players could bring back high level talent, and some could bring back low-level MiLB players with upside to stock the system. Next season, we should still have a solid core with around $50MM to spend on upgrades, and some good players (notably pitchers) coming up from the minors.

 

I don't think we're "stuck in neutral." Rather, it takes a long time to go from terrible to very good, and we're probably right on the verge of getting there. Hopefully they don't do either of your "biggest fears," which could knock us into neutral, or even reverse.

[joepepsi]

I'm counting 8 teams in the NL who appear "stuck in neutral" so far this year: Brewers, Cubs, Pirates, Marlins, Braves, Dodgers, Rockies, D-Backs. A couple others are probably playing over their heads: Reds, Nats, Padres.

 

Some of these teams aren't very good and will drop out over the next 2-3 months. Some will linger in neutral and some will kick it up and compete for division/wild card titles.

 

Too early to say where the Brewers are right now, but that's true for at least half the league. I don't think they are far off from a 10 game winning streak, or some such thing. But they could just as easily go through the year teasing, and never really being good.

[FVBrewerFan]

The Twins can compete because they can develop their own pitching- period. That's the secret of sucsess for a low/ mid tier payroll team. If the Brewers wanted to do something bold, it would have been signing Sabathia. Since that didn't happen, Plan B would be to get 3 or 4 arms with upside via trade and FA. I couldn't agree more that signing Davis types is a waste of time (and money.) That has been Melvin's Plan A up to now. Get whatever arms you can, and hope that quantity produces a couple quality arms. And to be fair, that has worked to a certain extent.

 

But to take this team to the next level, I think they need a Plan C. My Plan C would be to hire a "Director of Pitching." This person would report directly to Melvin. Now, I know they have someone in charge of pitching in the minors. I'm talking about an even higher level. Someone who wpould sign off on pitchers during the draft. Responsible for developing pitchers throughout the minors, including hiring coaches.etc. Responsible for identifying Free Agents and trade candidates. Just a wholistic approach to pitching, charged with one goal- drastically improving the Major League staff by 2012.

 

I also think this season will tell the stoy on Macha, and maybe even Melvin. There's no reason an offense this good should be so streaky. Enough with everyone trying hit HRs constantly, they need a Manager who can get that message across. It can be done. Skiles was able to get across the "defense first" message tothe Bucks, where many others failed. And if you can convince NBA players to play defense, you certainly can convince MLB players to take a single up the middle occassionaly.

[RockCoCougars]

The problem with this team has been an incredibly inconsistent offense, poor defense, a brutal bullpen, and spotty starting pitching. Eventually, I think the offense and defense will kind of even things out, I think the bullpen could be somewhat improved simply by Macha changing his philosophy (e.g. going to the guys who have been effective), and I'm somewhat heartened with Narveson's progress thus far. Hopefully, his improvement over Suppan will bolster the confidence of management to replace Davis with a better option if he keeps scuffling.

[NievesNoNO]

Being mediocre in many ways is the worst possible position to be in for all sports. Being mediocre means lower draft picks and also fools management into thinking they are one or two players away when in fact its more than that.

I will agree with this, however I think it's only bad because management fails to make a true decision. To me a true decision is either a flat out sell with an intention to improve later and a realization that you are definitely sacrificing the present. A true decision to buy and go for it would mean definitely sacrificing some of the future to acquire impact talent now to go for it. In 2008, they make a decision to acquire an impact player in CC. Last year they acquired average players to fill some holes at the deadline, but never committed to acquiring an impact player. I'm actually of the opinion that the Brewers are only a couple players away, unfortunately those players aren't Doug Davis and La Troy Hawkins they're more like Nolasco or Verlander. (Just throwing out names for reference to ability, not saying they should/can trade for those guys.)

 

This has to be the most difficult time for Doug since he's come to Milwaukee, also with the potential to be the most rewarding. With a city/state that supports a good team like Milwaukee I think the decision even gets tougher. Strictly from a financial point of view it makes sense to keep the Brewers competitive as long as possible each season since the fans have proven they'll continue to show up as long is the team is hanging around.

 

The Brewers will never have the financial resources to sign a true impact player in free agency. They will either need to trade for or develop that kind of talent. I think there is also an assumption that Hardy or Hart could've brought back an elite power armed prospect in a trade. I'm not saying it wasn't a possibility, but I think that gets thrown around here sometimes like it is a fact. I will agree we need to figure out how to improve our pitching, but we still need hitting. I'm not against dealing hitting for pitching, in fact that's probably the way to go. However, you need both to win. San Francisco has had a very good staff for a few years now but hasn't won anything either because half their team can't hit the ball out of the infield.

 

So are we stuck in neutral? I think last year could be described as keeping ourselves in neutral. It will depend what happens before/at the trade deadline this year for me to decide whether we're still there or not. To me an acquisition of a true ace pitcher would be the only thing that would make me want to buy, in the hunt or not. I also fear a Milwood type deal. If nothing has changed from now until July 31, I hope we sell and sell big.

 

 

[rluzinski]

I don't think it's a realistic goal for the Brewers to be perennial playoff contenders with an $80 mil payroll. The average NL team spent $86 mil this year. That said, that should be enough money for the Brewers to make the playoffs every 5 years or so.

 

If anyone is curious, 2010 team salaries for the NL:

 

No. Team Payroll

1 Chicago Cubs $146,859,000

2 Philadelphia Phillies $141,927,381

3 New York Mets $132,701,445

4 San Fran Giants $97,828,833

5 LADodgers $94,945,517

6 St. Louis Cardinals $93,540,753

7 Houston Astros $92,355,500

8 Atlanta Braves $84,423,667

9 Colorado Rockies $84,227,000

10 Milwaukee Brewers $81,108,279

11 Cincinnati Reds $72,386,544

12 Washington Nats $61,425,000

13 Arizona Dbacks $60,718,167

14 Florida Marlins $55,641,500

15 San Diego Padres $37,799,300

16 Pittsburgh Pirates $34,943,000

Average.... $85,801,930

[MJLiverock]

Stuck in Neutral is good description of where I think the team is at... not really going for it all, but not really admitting it and rebuilding. Rluzinski is right that the team isn't going to make the playoffs every year with the payroll limitations they have. But if a good enough core can be built then making the playoffs could occur in back to back years before players get sold off or the limited window of greatness closes for a few satellite players, i.e. free agents and such. If the goal is the playoffs once every five years which is pretty realistic then there will most likely have to be a bad year in there somewhere as the team reloads/rebuilds. I just don't know if the Brewers are willing to trade a year or two of 75 win seasons for the potential at some 90+ win seasons, hence the stuck in neutral agreement. Melvin seems like a guy who will just keep plugging in short term stop gap measures like signing aging pitchers on their last legs.

 

Also looking at that 5 year cycle, would put the Brewers on playoff pace again in 2013. I don't think 2010 is playoff year, nor 2011 unless something major changes with the rotation. The "wave" of pitching talent for the Brewers is in low A to A ball right now meaning they won't be throwing 200 innings in the majors until right at that 2013 season if even then. It is possible to have some guys like Rogers, Jeffress make it before then and hopefully they will. If the Brewers trade Fielder for some pitching it may help but the offense will suffer some but it has some room to play with but again will the Brewers and fans have the patience to suffer through a 75 win season with some young guys playing and admit going into a year they aren't a contender in say 2011 or 2012?

[Ennder]

I don't find the organization stuck in neutral, I just think a rebuilding process takes way longer than people realize. I didn't expect us to be a .500 team until around 2010 to be honest, things happened faster than I would have expected given how terrible the organization was 10 years ago. The Suppan deal obviously killed the team somewhat though, if we had signed someone like Lilly instead this team would be so much better off the last couple years. A lot is going to depend on what they do with Fielder, Braun, Weeks. The organization needs to learn how to develop/draft pitching, on base skills and defense more than anything. I do agree that we should trade Fielder, I think we should extend Weeks though and roll the dice with his health.

 

Rebuilding an organization doesn't mean draft a few good young players and have them reach the pros and you are done though. Step 1 is getting some talent in the minors, step 2 is rebuilding the fan base and putting a competitive product on the field and step 3 is turning some of that initial talent into solid minor league depth so the organization can stay competitive long term. We are still in the middle of step 2 right now, the process is not finished yet.

[CheezWizHed]

Well, two pieces of dead weight will be removed this off season: Suppan and Hall's contracts. Those have been two factors over the last couple years to limit our ability to make changes... ~20% of your salary wrapped up right there.

 

Given that with Prince's last year under Brewers control could make next winter rather interesting...

[bklynbrewcrew]

Well, two pieces of dead weight will be removed this off season: Suppan and Hall's contracts. Those have been two factors over the last couple years to limit our ability to make changes... ~20% of your salary wrapped up right there.

 

Given that with Prince's last year under Brewers control could make next winter rather interesting...

 

Do you honestly trust Melvin to spend that money wisely. All he has done the last few years is waste millions on over the hill pitchers both for the rotation and the bullpen.

[RobDeer 45]

I have talked about this many a time with friends and mentioned it on here too. I too have that feeling of being stuck in "average-ville." My theory is that you need to do it like the twins do. You win with pitching and young prospects. You get these players by trading your studs and re-stocking the farm. I agree that it is a long process but I'm not sure if we've done a good job at bringing in young arms. Whether through the drafts or trade we just aren't getting them. I also think that our GM puts more emphasis on power bats and not on D and pitching. I could be wrong but it just seems that way. Or maybe that's just what has worked out the best for us. I would much rather see us more consistent with good pitching and maybe frustrated about our offense then to see us go on such violent swings of really good and really bad.

 

I think we need to trade guys like Prince at this time to replenish our pitching. Then when we have a chance for a run at the playoffs you make a trade here and there but you don't cut the life line of your team by giving up top notch prospects. Unless it's a legit chance to win the whole thing, not just make the playoffs. Prospects are the most valuable thing for mid to low market team and you have to put priority on keeping your farm system full of them. As other posters have said, we are not going to ever get a top notch FA, we have to bring them up within, take a chance on signing a few of them longer term. We can't spend our money on guys like soup, it won't get us anywhere. We can bring a guy like that in on a year to year basis or maybe a 2 year deal but the focus has to be on young talent from within!

[sheethead]

The Twins don't know it yet, but they are stuck in average-ville also.

[joepepsi]

Prospects are the most valuable thing for mid to low market team and you have to put priority on keeping your farm system full of them. As other posters have said, we are not going to ever get a top notch FA, we have to bring them up within, take a chance on signing a few of them longer term. We can't spend our money on guys like soup, it won't get us anywhere. We can bring a guy like that in on a year to year basis or maybe a 2 year deal but the focus has to be on young talent from within!

Actually, I think that's what Melvin has been trying to do. Except for Suppan, he's been trying for short term deals with vets to fill holes that can't be filled by young talent with high upside. These short term deals were supposed to fill the gaps during the brief window that Prince, Braun, Hart, Hardy, and Weeks would take the team to glory.

[Baldkin]

I too have that feeling of being stuck in "average-ville." My theory is that you need to do it like the twins do.

The Brewers blew their chance to do that when they moved out of the worst division in baseball in 1998.

The fact is, the Brewers are in a division with 1 team who can spend way more than them (the Cubs), and two teams who can spend 10-20% more than them (Cardinals, Astros). With the Cardinals maybe being the best run team in baseball currently.

Saying "Do it like the Twins" is getting old. The Brewers have to do things like the Twins and get really really lucky on top of that.

[BrewCrewForever]

bklynbrewcrew, the only issue I have with trading McGehee is that the Brewers are going to have to trade Prince. Wouldn't you want to keep McGehee so you have him and Gamel to be the corner INFers? I don't care if it is Gamel or McGehee that plays 1B, but I would think one of them will move and the other will stay at 3B.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

The Twins don't know it yet, but they are stuck in average-ville also.

I would dispute this. They have not advanced to a world series ala 1987 or 1991, but i believe have six division titles in the past decade. I would say that the Twins organization is virtually identical to the St Louis Cardinals (minus the Cards World Series win).

 

The Twins have the pieces in place to make a very nice run for it in 2010 and 2011... then, moving forward, their core (Span, Mauer, Morneau) is still locked up and then can start flipping some of their pitching when it starts to get more expensive (Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, maybe even Liriano) and replace them with even more arms. The twins don't rebuild, they reload. If you have a few premium players (M&M) that you build around, and you play the cycle right of trading high and buying low, you can have sustained success.

 

Despite no world series wins since 1991, i think the Twins are a top-5 run organization in MLB, maybe even Top-3 and now they have a beautiful ballpark and revenue enhancement that will only improve their outlook

[paul253]

To me, this team needs to trade away a lot and start over next season with the people who actually have a future in the organization. Trade Bush, Hart, Hoffman, Zaun, Davis and Counsell. After the year is over, trade Fielder. Get some young pitching prospects that can throw harder than 89mph. Figure out to do with Weeks. Figure out who your catcher of the future is. Figure out who is going to replace Fielder. Quit signing mediocre, over the hill players in an attempt to play .500 baseball and find some kind of direction for this team.

[logan82]

I would say that the Twins organization is virtually identical to the St Louis Cardinals (minus the Cards World Series win).

 

You forgot minus the competitive division.

[tigerbrew]

I think Melvin had done an awful job in his signing of free agent pitchers overall and that has hurt the Brewers tremendously. As for Prince, his contract demands are way too expensive and could cripple the team in the future, I think the Brewers should seriously explore trading Prince. As for McGehee, I want to keep him and offer him a reasonable extension. He is a good consistent hitter and will be relatively cheap for several years.

[Omar Little]

I see this season being very much like last year where we were able to hang around the wild card race even though were werent any good. I fear this happening again and it will once again fool our management into giving up prospects for rentals. I just dont see this team as being good enough to make foolish deals like that.

 

I also think we will probably just hold onto Prince for the purpose of ticket sales which will end up as a big mistake. The problem is that the NL is incredibly weak and there is most likely not a NY/Tampa situation where the wild card is basically decided early on. I also have concerns that if we do trade Prince it would be a deal similar to the Carlos Lee deal where Melvin feels a need to acquire "major league" ready players instead of doing whats right and getting some AA studs which are far more valuable than the Kevin Mench's of the world.

 

Being mediocre in many ways is the worst possible position to be in for all sports. Being mediocre means lower draft picks and also fools management into thinking they are one or two players away when in fact its more than that.

Are you reading my mind bklyn because everything you've said in your 2 posts is exactly the way I feel! This team has regressed since 2008(without CC the team probably finishes at/below .500 again) and really hasn't improved that much, if at all, since 2007! Once they started competing in 2007 and DM/MA got us all believeing that the playoffs would be a regular occurrence, just "being in the race" in August stopped being good enough for me! Yeah, the team was crappy for a lot of years and that sucked but I can't believe how many people(3 million of them walked thru the gates last year) are still satisfied with just being competitive!

 

This band-aid approach isn't cutting it. The Braun n Fielder era is coming to a close with little to show for it thanks to the poor FA signings, lack of significant trades and DM and Jack Z's inability to draft and develop young pitching talent! It is time to tear this thing down and start over again. If any of you are old enough to remember the Bucks of the 1980s, you can remember how many years they used an approach similar to what DM has done the last couple of years. They would bring a couple of over the hill, veteran, band aid players year after year so they could just make the playoffs or compete for a playoff spot. That philosophy never got them any closer to a title and never let them develop a young core of players who would allow them to compete once Sid, Pressey, Marques Johnson, TC and Sikma retired. What followed was a LONG stretch of losing season.

 

I hope that the Brewers don't head in that direction and I hope that when the time comes to trade Prince, someone other than DM is making that very, very, very important trade for the Brewers!