Why is this team playing so poorly at Miller Park?

[BREWCREW5]

Wow, Mark A. isnt going to be putting up with this much longer. I see changes happening soon, probably after they get swept tom.

[thablingster]

I think it comes back to the pitching, again. When you give up 121 runs in 17 games you're not going to win many games. At home we've given up 5, 5, 4, 5, 7, 7, 8, 5, 12, 3, 7, 6, 8, 11, 9, 9, 10. Maybe we should bring the ivy back? lol.

[Ennder]

It is still too early to draw any conclusions about a team, I know people hate to hear it but it is the truth. This is like the Packers starting the year 2-3 at this point basically. I don't think the Brewers are as bad as they have looked at home this year, I don't think the Padres are the best team in the NL, I don't think the Nationals will compete for the Wild Card and I don't think the Diamondbacks are the worst team in the NL. You can't even begin to draw conclusions about baseball teams until they play half the season and even then you'll be wrong a lot.

 

If you thought it was a bad team going into the year then this doesn't really confirm anything, if you thought it was a good team going into the year this doesn't really justify changing your mind. If you were like the majority and thought it was somewhere within 5 games of a .500 team one way or the other this really can't begin to change anything at all.

[BadgerFan]

Unless something changes dramatically with the pitching staff, this team is headed towards a 70-75 win season.

 

The starting pitching is brutal and on the rare occasion our starter holds the opponent under 3 runs, he only lasts 5 innings. And the bullpen is one giant gas can.

 

I was as optimistic as anyone coming into this season but let's face it, pitching gets teams to the playoffs, and this team is four and a half decent starters shy of a good rotation.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Last year our pitching started out fairly well, but looked bad under the surface. By June the wheels started to fall off. The Bush injury played a key roll, but they really weren't that good before that. This year it looks bad, but I don't think they are as bad as they've shown. Not great by any means, but I'd be surprised if their ERA wasn't below last years level by seasons end. That should be a fairly low bar to get over.

 

Think Davis v. Looper. Basically the same spot in the rotation. Looper was horrible last year, yet got lucky he won as many games as he did. Davis is not great by any means, but I can't believe a BABIP of .415 is sustainable. Narveson is a big improvement over Mike Burns too. I just can't believe our bullpen is really this bad. There are some decent arms out there and some options at AAA.

 

All it would take are a few quality starts and thinks will look a little better. Maybe not a playoff team, but better. There's a winning streak out there somewhere.

[pebadger]

There's a winning streak out there somewhere.

At this point I'd settle for a streak of games that provides some kind of entertainment value. There is a winning streak out there, but if it's just another three day stretch of 30 runs produced . . . well, I've seen that show already.

 

 

[JohnBriggs12]

Weeks home splits: .186/.329/.271

 

Weeks road splits: .318/.396/.518

 

Offensively, it all starts with Weeks. When he's hitting and getting on base they score runs. When he's not, they don't.

 

Here's a startling stat about Weeks. He's 10 for 18 when he puts the first pitch in play. He's 7 for 16 on 1-0 counts. Once he has 2 strikes on him, he's a putrid 10 for 77. Behind in count in general, he's a horrific 4 for 42. I don't have the numbers, but if I had to guess, I'd say Weeks has been less aggressive at home and taking more pitches to his and the teams detriment.

 

Weeks should not be in a spot in the lineup where common wisdom is to take pitches and work counts. Yes, he draws some walks doing that but he sacrifices way to much of his offensive firepower.

[rluzinski]

Weeks home splits: .186/.329/.271

 

Weeks road splits: .318/.396/.518

 

Offensively, it all starts with Weeks. When he's hitting and getting on base they score runs. When he's not, they don't.

 

We all like nice and tidy explanations but there are many reasons why the Brewers have done so much better on the road than at home. Offensively, it's the whole team:

 

Home: .743 OPS, 4.41 runs/game

Away: .850, 6.42 runs/game

 

Are you suggesting that Weeks' poor offensive showinng has caused other batters to perform poorly as well?

 

And what about this:

 

Home: 5.98 ERA

Away: 4.41 ERA

[TooLiveBrew]

Once he has 2 strikes on him, he's a putrid 10 for 77.

 

The vast majority of hitters are putrid in 2-strike counts

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Are Weeks struggles correlated to the rest of the team, the cause or just coincidental? Tough to know, but I think somewhat of a case can be made that when Weeks is hitting and getting on base it creates more opportunities for the big boppers. Doesn't explain everything, but may explain some...including some of the big difference in Braun at home and on the road. Rightly or wrongly I view him as The Ignitor 2.0.

 

As far as pitching, they had 10 games in a few cavernous ballparks out west. They also caught the Pirates in a three game death spiral. Still early so all of this is pure conjecture.

[TooLiveBrew]

The fans should probably be fired. We need someone to fire up the team, to show some passion!

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

The fans should probably be fired. We need someone to fire up the team, to show some passion!

Now you are talking TLB...c'mon you Wisconsin folk...we took 2/3 out here in LA...step it up!!! I can't wait for the Anaheim trip to do this on my own!!!

 

In truth, I am a little worried that the fans will be firing themselves and stop turning out...not good for a team that needs those revenues.

[JohnBriggs12]

Weeks home splits: .186/.329/.271

 

Weeks road splits: .318/.396/.518

 

Offensively, it all starts with Weeks. When he's hitting and getting on base they score runs. When he's not, they don't.

 

We all like nice and tidy explanations but there are many reasons why the Brewers have done so much better on the road than at home. Offensively, it's the whole team:

 

Home: .743 OPS, 4.41 runs/game

Away: .850, 6.42 runs/game

 

Are you suggesting that Weeks' poor offensive showinng has caused other batters to perform poorly as well?

 

And what about this:

 

Home: 5.98 ERA

Away: 4.41 ERA

It's not the whole team offensively. It's 2 guys, Weeks and Braun. Everyone's else's splits are pretty comparable home and away. But those guys get more plate appearances and when they hit, the team scores and when they don't they struggle to score enough.. Fielder and Hart have actually been better at home.

 

Now because Braun has been so dominant on the road, it's a little easier to accept.his struggles at home.

 

Statistically, the pitching's been better on the road, but the parks have something to do with that. But if the team were scoring more at home, especially early, it would take some pressure off a pitching staff that needs it.

[TooLiveBrew]

It's 2 guys, Weeks and Braun. Everyone's else's splits are pretty comparable home and away.

 

It's almost looks like this stuff is completely random, doesn't it?

[3Putt]

It starts off as random but it can get in their heads and affect play after the reporters ask the same questions 50 times.

[rluzinski]

Home Record On May 19th: 4-12

Home Record Since: 12-6

 

A team that starts the season off by winning only 25% of their first 16 home games goes on to win 66% of the next 18. Folks, this kinda stuff is almost ALWAYS random. I just shake my head when I hear a "professional" gambler say that you should bet against some team because they've been struggling at home or at night or whatever. That's a bunch of hogwash. Search for all the crazy splits you want and you'll be looking at 99% statistical noise. Descriptive, not predictive.

 

In a similar vein, the Brewers started the year, 15-25 and a pitiful .375 Win%. On pace for 61 wins. Since then , they've gone 19-16; a .542 win%. Now, I don't think the Brewers are an above average team anymore than I think they are a .375 win% team. Almost any team that starts off great or terrible is bound to play closer to .500 going forward. Simple math.

[dadofandrew]

16 games is a tiny sample. The irony is, no one would notice if you go 4-12 at home between July 10th and August 13th, but because it happened early, people notice.

 

I'm sure much of the early season struggles were directly related to Hoffman's struggles. This is far from rocket science.