Why is this team playing so poorly at Miller Park?

[adambr2]

At home is where you're supposed to be making up ground. Not getting murdered. 4-10 makes us the WORST team in baseball at home, percentage-wise. This is obviously bad for the team, and bad for continued attendance. How long are fans going to want to continue to come to the games with the team continuing to perform so badly in front of them?

 

I don't know what it is, if they feel more pressure, or what it is, but they better figure it out. Even the worse teams in baseball play around .500 ball at home.

 

And it's not like we can cite a tough schedule. Actually every team that they've played at home is under .500, except the Cardinals. 3 at home against the Braves, you're looking to take 2 out of 3. Not try to avoid a sweep in the last game.

[rluzinski]

Why did Atlanta have a losing record at home last year, despite finishing 10 games above .500? I don't know for sure but I think it's the same reason for the Brewer's home field woes this year.

[NYChez]

In my years watching the Brewers, I've seen life cycles of teams that have led to this point. A bunch of young guys come up and they rely on the emotion of the home crowd and have a very good home record and very poor road record. Then as they become veterans they develop a mindset that helps them win on the road (but perhaps that same mindset hinders their ability to win at home).

[logan82]

They matured to much to win at home?

[dlk9s]

Ubaldo, Hoffman, Garcia, Dempster, Lilly, Wells, Hoffman, Hoffman, Hanson, Hudson?

[HOF4canrake]

From the looks of it, Braun, Weeks and Edmonds aren't hitting at all at home. Hoffman blew 3 saves that led to losses. They've faced a handful of really good pitching at home.
I saw some of this stuff over at Brewersmix.com with more details.

[jjkoestler]

Ubaldo, Hoffman, Garcia, Dempster, Lilly, Wells, Hoffman, Hoffman, Hanson, Hudson?

Wow. That is absolutely brutal.

[adambr2]

Well, if we think that's bad, we're going to definitely have our hands full with Santana, Hamels, Halladay, Cueto, Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Oswalt, Haren, Wandy R, Jurrjens, Nolasco, Johnson, Strausburg, Penny, Wainwright, and Pelfrey.

 

There's plenty of good to great starting pitching in the NL. If we're going to have to throw our hands up every time we face one, especially at home, and just say, "Nothing we could do, we just ran into good pitching," then we may as well go ahead and be resigned to the fact that we're not going anywhere.

[Dragonbait]

Maybe its the new batter's eye.

[trwi7]

Maybe its the new batter's eye.

 

I blame the shadows.

[cnycerveceros]

The Brewers have a tendency to swing for the fences, and there is a notion (I think) that Miller Park is a great place to hit homeruns even though for much of its time it's played neutral to favoring pitchers (I think each of the last 3 seasons it's favored pitching?). Maybe they tell themselves that home is where they'll hit homeruns and they just, on average, have worse at bats at MP and that results in lackluster offense. The cynic in me says that the park has favored pitchers for the last several years because the Brewers' offense plays there!

[Ennder]

These things are more or less completely random.

[Invader3K]

Ubaldo, Hoffman, Garcia, Dempster, Lilly, Wells, Hoffman, Hoffman, Hanson, Hudson?

Wow. That is absolutely brutal.

The Brewers home woes are one of those things that will probably even out as the season goes on, but this is probably the best description I've seen so far. Also the fact that Prince hasn't been himself maybe has something to do with it.

[dlk9s]

To reiterate something from my list of pitchers (someone else also mentioned it), we lost three games on Hoffman blown saves. If he doesn't blow those, not that I expect anyone to be flawless, we're 7-7 at home and 3 over .500 on the season.

 

Overall, I think it's just a coincidence that we haven't been good at home so far.

[pebadger]

It may be a coincidence, but the results fit the general pattern of the season: If the Crew don't score at least 5 (and preferably 8 or more) runs they have a greatly diminished chance of winning any ballgame. 7, 5, 8, 17 are the run tallies in the home wins this seasons. They've only lost once at MP when they scored at least 5 runs, and two-thirds of their wins have come when they score at least 8 runs.

 

It almost seems like the general rule, subject tto exceptions of course, is that whoever jumps on the other guy first in any game involving the Brewwers will be the winner. If nobody jumps on the other guy, the team opposing the Brewers has the advantage. Makes for a less-than-optimal viewing experience. Very little drama, and what there is usually evokes negative emotion and expectation.

[rluzinski]

Why can't the Brewers win at home/on the road/in day games/at night/on sundays/in games that would result in a sweep/when facing bad starter/when facing whatever team has beat them recently/after getting an early lead/in close and late games....

 

That MIGHT be half of the ones I've heard over the last 8 years on this messageboard. As Edner said, the most likely answer for this one is luck. The most likely for all the above is luck.

[adambr2]

All those random splits aren't really the same as home games.

 

You're supposed to be winning at home. Or at least winning a little more than 4 through your first 14. I'd be a little more willing to chalk it up to random luck if we weren't dropping all these games against poor teams.

[rluzinski]

The average team wins about 54% of their home games. That's not much different that a 50/50 split. You make it sound like teams should be expected to win 80% of their home games.

 

The point is, there are litterally HUNDREDS of different splits you can look at, so it's not surprising that you can find some crazy ones.

[ELCABALLO45]

Bases on last year...

 

Playoff teams last year won around 62% of there home games last year.

 

Teams who finished between 80-85 wins won around 57 percent of there home games.

[endaround]

So teams that won about 58% of their games won around 62% at home

[rluzinski]

So teams that won about 58% of their games won around 62% at home

Exactly. Roughly speaking, add 4% to a team's overall win percentage to come up with expected home W% From year to year, there are always going to be outliers just from the probabilistic nature of baseball. You can use stats 101 to determine that expected spread.

 

[drezdn]

Ryan Braun is batting .218/.302/.327/.629 at home this year. That can't help.

[TabbertBB]

Maybe the easy answer is that this is Not a very good team.

[carniesandrubes]

Maybe the easy answer is that this is Not a very good team.

Shhhhh..... people on here are afraid of the truth...

[markedman5]

Brewers have lost all 5 games on the current home stand. In those games the pitching staff has given up 47 runs.

 

I'm not sure what I would call that but its not bad luck.

 

When you give up 10 runs a game you are going to lose