What's up with this bullpen?

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

If you would have asked me before the season what the strength of this team might wind up being, I would have said our bullpen. As bipolar as the rest of the team has been, it's really been evident in the pen. This series it was in full display. Wednesday night they go right with Macha's plan...Villy in the 6th, Coffey in the 7th, Hawkins in the 8th before they blow it open and don't need Trevor. Then last night our "worst" pen guys (Vargas was shaky, but "Soup pitched great") keep us in the game before Hawkins explodes. Take out some of these blown saves and collapses and we're .500 or above even with the erratic starting pitching and hitting.

 

Plenty of discussion in the IGT last night, so I'll throw it open. Where do we go from here?

 

Don't panic? These guys should be fine after a rough start?

Personnel changes? Make room for Axford, Smith, Stetter or Braddock?

Change roles? Use Coffey or Villy in more key situations?

Quit signing older relievers?

Go back and beg Solomon Torres to come back..."I can wait no longer"?

 

I lean towards not panicking and that things should even out over time. Coffey has been our best reliever for some time now and should probably be in the highest leverage non-save situations. I'm not comfortable enough with our starters yet to release Suppan, but that could change and they could really use a LOOGY like Stetter. Maybe Vargas is the sacrificial lamb. At some point someone will get hurt...maybe Hawkins already is. I'm at a bit of a loss.

 

Thoughts?

[joepepsi]

Hawkins isn't very good and like many relievers, must be used cautiously.

[wibadgers23]

Braddock, Axford, and Stetter would look good in Brewer uniforms right now, but there's no room and they're not going to get rid of anybody to make room.

[bklynbrewcrew]

The Brewers AAA bullpen is better than than the major league bullpen. Maybe when we get a new GM we will stop wasting millions of dollars on old relievers.

[Invader3K]

Hawkins and Hoffman are really the only guys that have been major problems up until this point. Parra has been shaky in some instances, but I think that is due to how he's been used more than anything (and I blame Macha for that). I do think Hoffman has shown signs of getting it back together. I'm not sure about Hawkins though. It seems like he's been up and down all year as far as his control and effectiveness.

[logan82]

Hawkins and Hoffman are really the only guys that have been major problems up until this point.

 

and how they are used just amplifies how poorly they have pitched. If Macha would go away from his "guys in certain innings" strategery or at the very least change who pitches in the 7th or 8th innings the bullpen would look much better. Of course I subscribe to the "bullpens can make a manager look really good or really bad" theory.

[pitchleague]

Hawkins is starting to remind me of Jorge Julio from last year. He started off okay and then got shakier and shakier into May. This is the Hawkins of Chicago Cubdom pitching right now, not the Hawkins of Houston (although he still wasn't sparkling with them either).

 

I agree, though, that the bullpen has been a major disappointment. I thought it was one of our strongest parts of the team. I hope that it still can be. Even if you take half of the blown saves so far and convert them, we're above .500 I believe.

 

Streaky hitting I can live with because it's been that way for years with the Brewers. I mean, who was genuinely surprised that Ely, in his 2nd MLB game, would be throwing darts last night? We've seen that before, too. Is that because there is little to no video on him (and those kind of guys) that our hitters are just up there guessing? Are we that dependent on studying video?

 

Sorry that the above paragraph is a bit off topic.

[marty22]

Hawkins' stuff has really got me thinking he's injured. Check out his velocity on Fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/...29&position=P#pitchtype. McCalvy also had an article up on his missing velocity: http://brewersbeat.mlblog...led_by_velocity_dr.html. The other telling sign, IMO, is that he's barely thrown his slider at all. I guess he has thrown his curve, so maybe its not injury related, but lots of red flags.

 

Sorry if this has been mentioned here already, I don't usually comment/read the major league forum.

[SDOwen28]

The Brewers AAA bullpen is better than than the major league bullpen. Maybe when we get a new GM we will stop wasting millions of dollars on old relievers.

 

Who are you refering too? Hoffman...he was great last year. Why would we have not signed him back? Hawkins.,..I can see a complaint but he wont be as bad as he is....is he is its only 3.5MM a year. If you are refering to Gange, it was a hopeful wish but a one year deal.

 

Melvin is doing his best with what he has to work with. I would like to see Braddock but thats it but he is in AA, last time I checked. Who do you want in AAA to come up and who do you want to replace? There is a reason they are in AAA. The hest players play in AA.

 

Sometimes I wonder how many people understand baseball on this site....Its not at easy as you think.

[trwi7]

Why would we have not signed him back?

 

Because $8 million for a guy who's going to pitch 60 innings is horrible value?

 

Melvin is doing his best with what he has to work with.

 

He's doing a pretty terrible job. He has $20 million in dead weight on the payroll. He still hasn't learned to not spend a ton of money on the bullpen and he continues to build patchwork rotations with aging free agents.

 

I would like to see Braddock but thats it but he is in AA, last time I checked.

 

You should probably check again.

 

Who do you want in AAA to come up and who do you want to replace?

 

Braddock would be a nice start. Axford would be another start. Stetter is still in Nashville last I checked and Dillard has been pretty good out of the pen in his career and is dealing in Nashville as well.

 

There is a reason they are in AAA. The hest players play in AA.

 

Are Braun, Fielder and Gallardo not good players? They all played in AAA. You said you would like to see Braddock, he's in AAA.

 

Sometimes I wonder how many people understand baseball on this site

 

The irony.

[davego]

I guess I can understand spending money on the "proven closer" guy. While excessive, you see that as pretty common around baseball. Throwing down good money on the rest of the pen usually is a waste. This year other options in-house were (are) available. The issue now becomes players like Hawkins block Dillard for example because of that contract.

[jackalope02ca]

The bull pen will shake itself out over the rest of the year. I'm not worried. Having a surplus in the minors isn't a bad thing. Injuries will happen and middle releivers command a premium every year at the trade deadline. If we are injury free one or more could get moved towards the deadline to fill other holes or for prospects and that's all good.

[monty57]

To start with, our SP need to go 7-8 innings occasionally. That would go a long way to making the pen better. It's hard for 3-4 relievers/night to be perfect, so the likelihood of someone blowing up goes up substantially when the starter only goes 5 or 6 innings.

 

Hoffman has been discussed in great detail, and I hope he's able to find his control. There was an article on milwaukeebrewers.com after the grand slam loss at LA where Hawkins didn't know what was going on. It sounds like he's lost about 6 MPH off his fastball, but his arm doesn't hurt. Whether it takes a DL trip for some rest what, I hope he finds that lost velocity. Having the 8th & 9th inning guys lose games is demoralizing.

 

I did question the Hawkins signing this offseason, as it seems to have done little but force a useful pitcher in Stetter to AAA (at least as long as they feel they have to keep Suppan on the roster). The good thing is we finally have some relievers coming up through the system, so hopefully our bullpen will be much cheaper in the coming years. For now, I see two things we could do: DL Hawkins to rest his arm and see if he can find his velocity or dump Suppan and bring up someone who can be a more valuable part of the bullpen.

[endaround]

Hawkings' FIP is 3.42 and xFIP is 3.59. That's not great but good for a reliever. Small sample, more bad defense by the Brewers, plus Macha letting him go too long against the Cubs has inflated his ERA. That said he isn't some great relief ace (I hate the deal being 2 years) and should be treated no differently than any other reliever (ie no reason to let him "work out of trouble")

[Ennder]

Baseballprospectus just ran an article of the most valuable players in 2009 with contracts taken into account. Looking at the list with only players with 6 years of service time which means no discount for being in arbitration Pujols was #1 even with a $15.8M contract. There were some interesting Brewers on the list.

 

#5 was Craig Counsell. For all the flack Melvin took for bringing him back he has consistently been one of the best values in baseball over the past few years.

#8 was Trevor Hoffman. If he were to pitch anywhere remotely close to how he did last year he would be a bargain even at $8M this season. Closers have actually become underrated by the fanbase most likely.

#15 was Randy Wolf. I doubt he can repeat last season obviously but this was not a bad deal at all imo.

#25 was Latroy Hawkins. There was pretty much no way that Hawkins was going to repeat what he did last year and I still hate this deal even though he made this list.

[endaround]

Baseballprospectus just ran an article of the most valuable players in 2009 with contracts taken into account. Looking at the list with only players with 6 years of service time which means no discount for being in arbitration Pujols was #1 even with a $15.8M contract. There were some interesting Brewers on the list.

 

#5 was Craig Counsell. For all the flack Melvin took for bringing him back he has consistently been one of the best values in baseball over the past few years.

#8 was Trevor Hoffman. If he were to pitch anywhere remotely close to how he did last year he would be a bargain even at $8M this season. Closers have actually become underrated by the fanbase most likely.

#15 was Randy Wolf. I doubt he can repeat last season obviously but this was not a bad deal at all imo.

#25 was Latroy Hawkins. There was pretty much no way that Hawkins was going to repeat what he did last year and I still hate this deal even though he made this list.

Want to hear something funny? Hawkins WAR last year was 0.3, its 0.2 for the Brewers right now. Things like that happen when your K rate nearly doubles.

[logan82]

That's FIP for you. You can get hit like crazy as long as you K a lot of guys and walk very few.

 

I think we could have had similar production for much less money than we are giving Hoffman.

 

Per Cot's

1. Mariano

   Rivera, $15,000,000

   (2008-10)
2. Brad Lidge, $12,500,000 (2009-11)
3. Francisco

   Rodriguez, $12,333,333 (2009-11)

4. Joe Nathan, $11,750,000 (2008-11)

5. Francisco Cordero, $11,500,000 (2008-11)
6. Billy Wagner, $10,750,000 (2006-09)
7. Kerry Wood, $10,250,000 (2009-10)
8. B.J. Ryan, $9,400,000 (2006-10)
9. Brian

   Fuentes, $8,750,000 (2009-10)

10. Trevor Hoffman, $8,000,000 (2010)

11. Jose Valverde, $7,000,000 (2010-11)

12. Danys Baez, $6,333,333 (2007-09)

13. Trevor

    Hoffman, $6,000,000 (2009)

    Mike

    Gonzalez, $6,000,000

    (2010-11)

14. Octavio Dotel, $5,500,000 (2008-09)

    Fernando Rodney, $5,500,000 (2010-11)

[JohnBriggs12]

I didn't quite understand the signing of Hawkins when it happened. The job Coffey did last year should have earned him the 8th inning spot going in. I also thought that Vargas showed enough last year and Villanueva was certainly capable of being the guy he was in 08 so that one or the other could cover the 7th inning. They also had guys who were up last year that didn't embarrass themselves in Smith and Axford and a solid lefty in Stetter. I might have tried to add one more guy, but not an older guy coming off a good year(inflated price) but a guy coming off a disappointing year who might come as a bargain. Eric Gregg would have fit that bill. That would have been plenty of depth.

 

They messed things up further by using the bullpen to stash not one but two starters to preserve the notion of "starter depth". That never made sense to me. Now there's no room for one lefty specialist to get out the Ethiers of the world. I don't blame Macha. I do blame Melvin.

[TooLiveBrew]

I like the signing of Hawkins, but that's largely because I think bullpen roles are a waste of time & often counterproductive. Hawkins is another hard-throwing arm to add to the bullpen -- depth is a good thing. I'm confident he'll get his mechanics ironed out sooner rather than later.

 

 

hey messed things up further by using the bullpen to stash not one but two starters to preserve the notion of "starter depth". That never made sense to me. Now there's no room for one lefty specialist to get out the Ethiers of the world. I don't blame Macha. I do blame Melvin.

 

I completely agree with this part. It's just one more reason why releasing Suppan was, and still is, the right move.

[Eddiehitsthefoulpole]

I have a feeling that the wrong guy is being blamed for some of these signings. I think that some of these signings are really Mark Attanasio signings. I have no proof of this. I think Suppan was an Attanasio signing. I wouldn't be surprised if Davis and/or Hawkins were signed because Mark felt that Doug wasn't being aggressive enough. I also think that Mark is afraid to go backwards in payroll because it may send a message to fan that we are not trying hard enough. This is a just a gut feeling partially based on watching years of Herb Kohl meddling with the Bucks.

[SDOwen28]

Why would we have not signed him back?

 

Because $8 million for a guy who's going to pitch 60 innings is horrible value?

 

He was great last year....who cares how many innings he pitched.

 

Melvin is doing his best with what he has to work with.

 

He's doing a pretty terrible job. He has $20 million in dead weight on the payroll. He still hasn't learned to not spend a ton of money on the bullpen and he continues to build patchwork rotations with aging free agents.

 

Dead weight is Suppan and Hall....non relievers.

 

I would like to see Braddock but thats it but he is in AA, last time I checked.

 

You should probably check again.

 

Good for him.

 

Who do you want in AAA to come up and who do you want to replace?

 

Braddock would be a nice start. Axford would be another start. Stetter is still in Nashville last I checked and Dillard has been pretty good out of the pen in his career and is dealing in Nashville as well.

 

Dillard sucks. Stetter is in a bad spot cause of Suppan.

 

There is a reason they are in AAA. The hest players play in AA.

 

Are Braun, Fielder and Gallardo not good players? They all played in AAA. You said you would like to see Braddock, he's in AAA.

 

AAA is a stop. Figure that out. AA is where the best play.

 

Sometimes I wonder how many people understand baseball on this site

 

The irony.

 

Not at all. I played at many higher levels than you can dream of

[endaround]

AAA is better than AA. Yes there are more prospects in AA buts thats for two reasons. 1)They fail at AA and thats the end. 2)Veterans and injury replacements will find themselves on AAA rosters. But the level of play in AAA is higher than AA.

[Invader3K]

SDOwen, Dillard is currently carrying a 3.31 ERA in AAA, with a WHIP under 1.00. Not sure how you can say he "sucks." It's clear you have your opinions, and that is fine, but you could be a little bit more constructive in your criticisms.

[Ennder]

Brewer RPs have an xFIPof 4.16 on the year good for 7th in the NL and a 4.30 FIP while carrying a 5.01 ERA. I'd say at least part of it is just a sample size issue with ERA, part of it is having a below average defense and part of it is having a bit of a flyball heavy bullpen giving up a few more HR than other bullpens. I'd expect over the season to see us at least average overall if not a bit above average if they limit the innings Suppan pitches.

[monty57]

The Brewer relievers haven't been bad... Hoffman and Hawkins have. Hawkins is now on the DL to rest his arm, and hopefully Hoffman will regain his control, which would seem likely, but not a sure thing.

 

I didn't like the Brewers messing with Dillard last season by making him a starter in AAA after he was a fairly solid bullpen arm at the MLB level the previous year. I hope he's able to regain his form and once again become a decent bullpen option for the Brewers. A lot of pitchers find that they can't cut it as starters at higher levels, but make good relievers... that's where most relievers come from.

 

Good to see Stetter back with the Crew. Hopefully when Hawkins has his velocity back he'll replace Suppan, and we'll have a good bullpen going forward.