Why has Milwaukee's defense been so bad this year?

[endaround]

Milwaukee's DER this year has been 0.658, last in the majors by a decent amount. Any feeling as to why? Now the Brewers likely only have 2 above average defenders in Escobar and Gomez and poor defenders at 3B, LF and 1B this still seems really weird. Just luck so far?

[Ennder]

It takes a really long time for fielding stats to become meaningful even at a team wide level. DER jumps around a ton for most of the season. I doubt the Brewers have a good defense but I don't think it is is terrible either, probably below average.

[monty57]

I'd guess it's because they have Fielder, Weeks and McGehee in the infield and Braun and Hart in the outfield. I don't think Zaun is known for his defense either.

[logan82]

Milwaukee's DER this year has been 0.658, last in the majors by a decent amount. Any feeling as to why? Now the Brewers likely only have 2 above average defenders in Escobar and Gomez and poor defenders at 3B, LF and 1B this still seems really weird. Just luck so far?

Gomez has had sporadic playing time and Escobar has been to inconsistent to be above average so far. To expand on what Ender mentioned, the Brewers may not have had as many balls they could field as other teams.

 

 

Defense Efficiency Ratio. The percent of times a batted ball is turned

into an out by the teams’ fielders, not including home runs. The exact

formula we use is (BFP-H-K-BB-HBP-Errors)/(BFP-HR-K-BB-HBP). This is

similar to BABIP, but from the defensive team's perspective. Please

note that errors include only errors on batted balls

.

[Ennder]

Weeks has been fine defensively at 2B and Zaun is not bad defensively though he can't throw to save his butt. But yeah McGehee has been pretty brutal so far this year and Hart and Braun are bad OF.

[TheCrew07]

To expand on what Ender mentioned, the Brewers may not have had as many balls they could field as other teams.

How could that possibly be the case with all of the balls in play against the pitching staff so far?

[logan82]

Line drives are hard to field.

[TheCrew07]

Ha... that's true enough, but there's been so many balls in play that I doubt we're talking about a smaller sample than other teams.

[logan82]

Ha... that's true enough, but there's been so many balls in play that I doubt we're talking about a smaller sample than other teams.

You are right we probably have had more balls in play than most teams. The other teams may have had easier balls to field though. That is what I should have originally said. The teams we are playing right now are "hitting them where we ain't." I would think by the end of the season we settle in somewhere a little below average.

[TheCrew07]

I get what you're saying, I just don't think we can chalk this up to luck. McGehee seems to be below average, Prince is below average, Escobar has been below average, Zaun below average, Braun has been exposed, and Hart continues to regress defensively. If you just think about the total number of balls misplayed in the corner outfield spots over the first month (not just errors), fielding errors, then all of the throwing errors (some not even on balls in play) it makes perfect sense to be rated so poorly.

 

This isn't a predictive metric, it's descriptive, and while we can certainly debate it's merits and/or validity, in this case even a casual observer who's watched every game would say this team has been pretty bad defensively to start the season.

[logan82]

This isn't a predictive metric, it's descriptive, and while we can certainly debate it's merits and/or validity, in this case even a casual observer who's watched every game would say this team has been pretty bad defensively to start the season.

 

I would agree with that. I think they can play much better defense than they have so far though.

 

Our best defender, Gomez, has only started 17 games so far and our next best defender, Weeks, is probably about average.

 

I was hoping McGehee would be better. He had a good reputation on defense in the minors and his Totalzone was about average. I thought he was just a little gimpy last year because of the knee.

 

Escobar isn't a surprise to me. I think he can be a great defender but expected him to be about average this year. I am a little disappointed so far. Hopefully he gets more consistent by the end of the year.

 

I disagree that Braun has been exposed. He has been below average for both years he was in the outfield.

 

Zaun probably plays almost no part in our fielding rating. Catchers really don't field enough balls to make more than a very minimal impact.

[TheCrew07]

Zaun's Errors still count in the metric

[logan82]

logan3825 wrote:

Defense Efficiency Ratio. The percent of times a batted ball is turned

into an out by the teams’ fielders, not including home runs. The exact

formula we use is (BFP-H-K-BB-HBP-Errors)/(BFP-HR-K-BB-HBP). This is

similar to BABIP, but from the defensive team's perspective. Please

note that errors include only errors on batted balls.

[TheCrew07]

I get that, but didn't he throw the ball away throwing to first a couple of times already?

[logan82]

You are talking about 2 errors amongst about 752 balls in play. Those 2 errors would change our DER to .661 instead of 0.658 which would tie us for last I believe. Catchers have almost no impact on balls in play.

[TheCrew07]

I get that as well but how would that compare to other catchers around the league? How many errors have they made on so few attempts in the first month? I was comparing Zaun against other players at his position, not saying the defense is horrible because of him. That's all I meant.

[Invader3K]

Yes; but guys, how does the difficulty check on a fortitude saving throw affect the metric?

 

Ahem, sorry. Anyway...yes, it does seem like the defense is a bit worse than last year; but I think things will even out as the season goes on.

[endaround]

Related to this, I know that Macha never liked to shift as much as Yost but it seems that the Brewers infield has basically stopped doing any shifting this year. Is Escobar's range fooling them into thinking that the positioning won't matter anymore?

[pmg4]

endaround, if you're going to discuss something as important as percentage of shift in 2010 vs. percentage of shift in 2009 (same timeframe assumed), please provide numbers.

[endaround]

There is no data. All we have is Brian and Bill never talking about it anymore.

[jeffy]

They have had bad defense for years. Why would this year be any different?

Escobar is expected to be an upgrade defensively but has had some problems and, besides, he was also replacing one of the better defensive players they did have. The same goes for CF, Cameron was also one of their best defensive players.

[TooLiveBrew]

The team was solid on defense for at least 2009, can't remember about '08 perfectly but I think they were solid then as well.

 

it seems that the Brewers infield has basically stopped doing any shifting this year

I can't remember which inning last night, but I specifically remember a ball hit back up the middle, just left of 2B, that was hit basically right at Escobar. I think Macha doesn't employ as much shifting as Yost did, but to say that he does basically none of it is misguided imo.

[logan82]

We were one of the better defensive teams in the league in 2008 according to and about average according to UZR.

[cadillacjosh]

I gotta say personally, I think Braun has showed vast improvement this year. A lot of the routes he has been taking on fly balls have been near perfect. Considering this his 3rd actual year playing left field, I would say he still has potential to be a pretty solid defender. At least better than Soriano http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif