Zack Greinke [Latest: Deal for Odorizzi/Cain/Escobar/Jeffress in place? reply 464]

[nate82]

The only player I would not want to give up is Odorizzi. While Rogers and Jeffress are nice they are the two who I wouldn't mind dealing in a trade. Jeffress could become the next Papelbon or Chamberlain they could have been good to great starters but they are really best suited to be a relief pitcher. Rogers has some injury concerns where I would trade Rogers along with Jeffress and I wouldn't be all that concerned about losing those two in the same trade. If anything the Brewers would get a Cliff Lee or Sabathia type of a return in a trade. It is not like you are getting Greinke for 1-year like Sabathia but you will have Greinke for 2-years.

 

I really believe trading a combination of Lawrie, Jeffress, McClendon, Richardson, and Braddock would just about do it and that may even be over paying for Greinke. I don't see the Brewers trading more than one of their top starting pitching prospects in a deal and I don't believe the Royals will get more than two A type of prospects. I believe a more realistic trade would look something like Lawrie, Jeffress/Rogers, Braddock, and a player to be named later. Like the Rangers during the trade deadline when they made Perez unavailable the Brewers would make Odorizzi unavailable in a trade. I am more comfortable in trading either Jeffress or Rogers than trading Odorizzi.

 

You also can not horde your prospects. Well you can but you will turn out to be the Twins and never get to the World Series. The #1 reason that the Twins are being held back from going to the World Series is not the spending that the Yankees do. It is their inability to trade prospects when they have a legitimate shot at landing a player that would put them in the World Series. If the Twins would have pulled the trigger on Cliff Lee it would have been the Twins in the World Series and not the Rangers. You just can not always be hording your prospects you have to pick and choose when to trade them. If you can land an impact player with some unproven prospects you need to make that trade.

[Oldcity]

How could adding Greinke be depending on luck?

 

We are more than one pitcher away.

Add Greinke, keep fielder, trade McGehee (getting something in return, plus improving the defense) and you're looking at a pretty solid improvement. That team would be right up there with Cinci and St. Louis.

[endaround]

Add Greinke and you have at least the same basic talent level as the Giants.

[molitor fan]

If I had the computer knowledge i think I would start colbyjackfan.net. Right on the money analysis.

 

Just for the sake of inquiry, and to make this more than just a fanboy post, who has the greatest trade value (to the Brewers), Greinke or King Felix?

[Invader3K]

Well, Greinke/Gallardo would definitely give you a one-two combo at the top of the rotation comparable to Carpenter/Wainwright or Lincecum/Cain (just as examples). I do agree that I don't want to see the farm system cleaned out just to get a pitcher for two seasons, though.

[trwi7]

Just for the sake of inquiry, and to make this more than just a fanboy post, who has the greatest trade value (to the Brewers), Greinke or King Felix?

 

Obviously King Felix. He's better and signed longer.

[RockCoCougars]

I know that this sounds like a typical homerish trade proposal, but I wonder if the Royals would do a Richie Sexson type deal to fill holes. For example would they do a Gomez (DeJesus is a free agent, no), McGehee (he could DH if nothing else), Parra, Villanueva, and Jeffress OR Rogers for Greinke. This would allow the Brewers to avoid pillaging their farm system. The Royals could fill holes with cheap guys, some of whom Yost is familiar with. They could cut their payroll in a big way, and still spin it to their fanbase that they got the Brewers 2010 MVP AND their top pitching prospect along with three other guys with some upside. I know that it sounds kind of like waste management, but most of these guys do have some upside.

[trwi7]

There's no chance they even consider it.

[molitor fan]

Obviously King Felix. He's better and signed longer.

 

I would agree, and hope that Jack Z and the newly appointed Ted Simmons have an unhealthy obsession with a certain minor league 2nd baseman of ours. Even with a boatload of other talent i doubt it occurs, but then again, rumors were that Melvin was once close to acquiring Felix in the past.

[paul253]

I know that this sounds like a typical homerish trade proposal, but I

wonder if the Royals would do a Richie Sexson type deal to fill holes.

 

Yeah back when we made that deal, our farm system was just as empty as our major league roster. KC has a ton of prospects to insert into the lineup and would demand high ceiling players. My hope is that they dangle Greinke and realize what the Brewers are currently realizing with Fielder...that teams aren't going to over pay for him. I think Lawrie and Jeffress would be a good start, but I just don't want to do away with Rogers. To me an ideal trade would allow us to keep both Rogers and Odorizzi. I'd be ok giving up Lawrie, Jeffress, and a few other pieces (Peralta/Scarpetta/Rivas, Gamel/Green/Gindl) if need be.

[RockCoCougars]

I know that this sounds like a typical homerish trade proposal, but I

wonder if the Royals would do a Richie Sexson type deal to fill holes.

 

Yeah back when we made that deal, our farm system was just as empty as our major league roster. KC has a ton of prospects to insert into the lineup and would demand high ceiling players. My hope is that they dangle Greinke and realize what the Brewers are currently realizing with Fielder...that teams aren't going to over pay for him. I think Lawrie and Jeffress would be a good start, but I just don't want to do away with Rogers. To me an ideal trade would allow us to keep both Rogers and Odorizzi. I'd be ok giving up Lawrie, Jeffress, and a few other pieces (Peralta/Scarpetta/Rivas, Gamel/Green/Gindl) if need be.

Agreed. I don't want to part with both Rogers and Jeffress, though I'd reluctantly move one if it meant getting Greinke. Since they both have issues, Rogers with past injuries and Jeffress with bonghitting, it's going to be a gamble as to which one to trade. I'd probably roll the dice and keep Jeffress if someone put a gun to my head, but it would be tough. I'd do this mostly because knowing the Brewers luck with young pitching Rogers will get hurt again. As long as Weeks is extended, I'd be OK with packaging Lawrie in there as well.

[GAME05]

it's not that i'm of the "Rogers is untouchable" mindset, only that i have a hard time grasping the idea of trading ML-ready starting pitching for ML starting pitching. obviously adding Grienke to the rotation would be huge, but a playoff team also needs to have an up-and-coming starter from the 4/5 spot too, and we have two legitimate shots at it with Rogers and Jeffress.

[endaround]

Rogers isn't major league ready as a starter. He might be in June, maybe. Its not like he pitched light out last year. He could easily need a full year in AAA if he continues to walk hitters. He has the K's and can easily pitch relief but that's different.

[paul253]

Rogers walk rate was down once he got to Milwaukee. Is that just because he was throwing more fastballs? I also think he'll need to start in Nashville, if anything just to limit his innings some. I think Jeffress needs to start in Huntsville. He is really going to need to stretch that arm out if they put him back in the rotation. I can't see him being a major league ready starter until 2013. That's why I'd much rather trade him than Rogers. That and I think Rogers has a better chance of being a starter long term.

[Invader3K]

I think Jeffress is more expendable than Rogers at this point as well. I think the comparisons to Joba Chamberlain are apt. Will flirt with the rotation, but end up being a reliever. Not that the Brewers don't need good relievers down the pipeline, but obviously the rotation is a much more pressing need.

[paul253]

Yeah and that's why you need to trade him before his value plummets. I don't care how good of a closer someone may be, closers are a dime a dozen (Soloman Torres anyone?) If you can turn a high ceiling, though borderline starter, prospect into Zack Greinke, I think you have to do it.

[brewmann04]

Well Rogers stayed Healthy for the first time so how much do you trust him staying Healthy.I would Rather move him than Jeffress who has all the making of our future closer.If you has to empty your system i rather go for King Felix over Zack.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think Jeffress is more expendable than Rogers at this point as well. I think the comparisons to Joba Chamberlain are apt. Will flirt with the rotation, but end up being a reliever.

 

I'm curious what you're basing this on. There's been a some talk of BF lately about how Rogers's longterm value is greater than Jeffress's, and I just don't see it. Rogers's injury history is much more concerning, long-term, than anything that Jeffress has to worry about.

[paul253]

Well Rogers stayed Healthy for the first time so how much do you trust him staying Healthy

He's been healthy for two years now. He was healthy in 2009, just very, very limited innings.

 

I'm curious what you're basing this on

This is going to sound dumb, but I actually base my feeling on my personal observations from September. Rogers' delivery seemed so much smoother and easier than Jeffress' did. Jeffress just had so much movement in his that it seems like it would be really hard to repeat. Rogers also seemed to have a lot better command of his fastball. He still needs to develop a good change if he's going to have success, but I just think his command will improve more than Jeffress' does.

 

I would Rather move him than Jeffress who has all the making of our

future closer.If you has to empty your system i rather go for King Felix

over Zack.

 

Isn't Zach Braddock supposed to be our future closer? What about John Axford, the guy that was lights out last season? Not to sound like a jerk but how many future closers do you need? I think finding a closer is 10x easier than finding a number one starter, which is what Greinke is. Also, signing relievers is a lot cheaper than signing starters. If I knew for sure Jeffress was going to end up in the bullpen, I'd be dangling him all over the place. As far as Felix goes, I doubt Seattle moves him. Didn't they just extend him last year?

[logan82]

I think Jeffress is more expendable than Rogers at this point as well. I think the comparisons to Joba Chamberlain are apt. Will flirt with the rotation, but end up being a reliever.

 

I'm curious what you're basing this on. There's been a some talk of BF lately about how Rogers's longterm value is greater than Jeffress's, and I just don't see it. Rogers's injury history is much more concerning, long-term, than anything that Jeffress has to worry about.

If I had to guess it probably has something to do with Rogers actually pitching as a starter within the last year. I will not get to excited about Jeffress until he can actually pitch most of a season with a decent BB rate.

[TooLiveBrew]

Rogers' delivery seemed so much smoother and easier than Jeffress' did. Jeffress just had so much movement in his that it seems like it would be really hard to repeat.

 

In terms of just delivery, I honestly think Jeffress's is strikingly similar to Gallardo's. I didn't think Jeremy's delivery had that many moving parts, to be honest.

[Oldcity]

The more I think about this, the more I really think it works.

 

1. The Royals are open to trading Greinke.

 

2. Greinke has a partial no trade, but reportedly does not want to pitch in a big market.

 

3. The Brewers have the prospects to get him between the likes of Lawrie, Odorizzi, Jeffress, Rogers, etc.

 

4. Lawrie is expendable if Weeks is extended.

 

5. The Brewers can afford Greinke's salary the next two years, unlike many non-big market teams.

 

I don't agree with the sentiment that the Brewers are much more than "one pitcher away." Greinke is a great pitcher who would make the Brewers as good as anyone in the NL Central. If the Royals are at all open to it, the Brewers need to go after this hard.

[RockCoCougars]

The more I think about this, the more I really think it works.

 

1. The Royals are open to trading Greinke.

 

2. Greinke has a partial no trade, but reportedly does not want to pitch in a big market.

 

3. The Brewers have the prospects to get him between the likes of Lawrie, Odorizzi, Jeffress, Rogers, etc.

 

4. Lawrie is expendable if Weeks is extended.

 

5. The Brewers can afford Greinke's salary the next two years, unlike many non-big market teams.

 

I don't agree with the sentiment that the Brewers are much more than "one pitcher away." Greinke is a great pitcher who would make the Brewers as good as anyone in the NL Central. If the Royals are at all open to it, the Brewers need to go after this hard.

I strongly agree with this. Gallardo and Greinke would give the Brewers one of the top 1-2 punches in baseball. If Wolf can pitch closer to he did in most of the second half as opposed to the first half, you have a solid #3. Sign a cheap 'project' with upside (Francis, Harden, possibly Bedard) for the 4 slot on an incentive-heavy deal and resign Cappy for the 5. If they aren't traded, you still have guys like Narveson, Parra and Villanueva to stand in if needed. With all the bad contracts going off the books (Suppan, Hall, Riske, Hoffman, Davis, Zaun, etc.), the Brewers should be able to make all of these moves at pretty much a wash on total payroll even with the buyouts, arby raises, etc.. Extend Rickie, keep Prince at least until the deadline and give it a go- if that means moving Lawrie and Rogers or Jeffress, so be it.

[And That]

4. Lawrie is expendable if Weeks is extended.

I agree that the Brewers should make a push for Greinke, but I think the odds of Weeks being extended get lower and lower by the day as winter rolls on. Honestly, I tend to think that if it was going to happen, it would have happened already. Hopefully I'm wrong.

 

Anyway, my point is that aside from Gamel and Cain, who have already reached the majors, Lawrie is the only potential impact bat we have in our system. I would be very loathe to trade him for two years of Greinke, and would certainly not say he's expendable. His bat plays at third and the corner outfield as well as second. I would hope we'd have enough ammo to get Greinke without Lawrie.

 

With the anti-haul the Marlins got for Uggla, it's possible.

[Oldcity]

I agree they can't really move Lawrie unless Weeks is extended. If they do extend Weeks, the Brewers have long-term answers at second, third, left, and right. That's why I said Lawrie was expendable.

I imagine they do have enough ammo to get Greinke without including Lawrie, but I figured that would just about empty the pitching in the Brewers' system.