Zack Greinke [Latest: Deal for Odorizzi/Cain/Escobar/Jeffress in place? reply 464]

[Hsee2006]

I like the idea of getting Greinke but it may cost a lot. Looking at the Indians trade of Cliff Lee to the Phillies they were able to get the Phillies 2nd Carrasco), 3rd (Donald), 4th (Marson) and 10th (Knapp) rated players according to their Baseball America rankings. That means a trade for Greinke may cost Gamel or Lawrie, Odorizzi or Rogers, Kentrail Davis and maybe Jeffress or Braddock.

 

I think we should sign Weeks and then trade Lawrie, Odorizzi, Davis and Jeffress or Braddock for Greinke. Then trade Fielder to SF for Bumgarner and go with a rotation of Greinke, Gallardo, Bumgarner, Wolf and Narveson with Narveson possibly being replaced by Rogers in 2011 or 12. Then play Gamel at first or sign an aged veteran free agent to play first like Thome to a short term deal.

I agree with this very much.

This would never happen. There's no way in h. e. double hockey sticks that the Giants would trade Bumgarner for Fielder. 6 years of controlable/cheap starting pitching, for one year of close to market value of a 1B? Along with depleting the system for 2 years of a SP at good value.

 

I think if the Brewers deal for Greinke, they're basically trying to go for it in 2011 and/or 2012. In that case, Prince won't be dealt. I understand the SP needs to be upgraded, but Greinke really isn't a long term solution. I think it'd be a great pickup, but I'm a little wary of giving up too many prospects for 2 years of a SP, although it could be compensated with receiving two draft picks when he leaves.

Yeah Fielder for Bumgarner may be dreaming. In hindsight sitting on Fielder last offseason and at the deadline may have cost us the chance at someone like Bumgarner and maybe even a Daniel Hudson type. Sadly, I expect a trade for Fielder now would probably either net us a major league player with limited upside or a couple of minor leaguers with decent upside. I suspect Fielder will not get us a deal as big as the Texas-Braves Texeira deal but if I had the choice I would take the minor leaguers with the higher ceiling.

[Oxy]

One thing to keep in mind here is that if the Brewers get Greinke and hold on to Fielder, they can still flip either one at the deadline if things aren't working out. While it is unlikely we'd actually get anything better than the 2 first round picks for Fielder if we held on to him, Greinke would still hold A LOT of value being under control for the playoff run plus another year. I think we should do whatever we can to get him to make a run next year (while holding on to Fielder), and then recoup whatever we lost to get him by flipping him again if it doesn't look like the playoffs are realistic. His no trade clause runs out after the deadline this year, I believe, so it is possible we could get back in value almost what we lost if we wait till the off-season when we can field offers from every team.

[Hate those Rodents]

I agree we can hold onto Fielder until the deadline and maybe end up getting more for him. I am thinking we can have him until July and still be able to get a Daniel Hudson and like a AA type guy. Not Daniel Hudson obviously, but somebody like him that falls out of favor a bit with his team due to struggles the first half of the season.

[GAME05]

for the past few years we've all commented about Melvin's complete lack of blue-chip pitching talent in the farm system, and in 2009 and 2010 we saw how that lack of depth can hurt the ML club, either due to injury or in having to overspend on FA pitchers (not specifically a Wolf comment). but now it seems that as soon as we get that blue-chip depth in Rogers, Odorizzi and Jeffress, we're anxious to trade it all away.

 

maybe i'm just playing devil's advocate, but if we make that kind of offer and actually land Greinke, aren't we just solving one problem by creating another? maybe the counter is to trade Fielder for a pitching prospect, but would this team truly get back to playoff contention by adding one star and subtracting another?

 

obviously Gamel or McGehee aren't going to replicate Fielder's stats at 1b next year, but be maybe be 75% of the player that Fielder is. if we're so willing to accept that, couldn't we also accept that someone of Rogers or Jeffress or Rivas could possibly be 75% of the pitcher that Greinke would be?

[Oldcity]

Next year there's no chance any of those pitchers could be that good. If any one of the three ends up that good, it's a success. Proven aces are the scarcest commodity in the league.

[JohnBriggs12]

Next year there's no chance any of those pitchers could be that good. If any one of the three ends up that good, it's a success. Proven aces are the scarcest commodity in the league.

No, but that's not to say the guys they currently have couldn't be better and that a young guy couldn't adequately fill a rotation spot.. Gallardo actually regressed slightly. Wolf ended up around his career norm and he's had better years than that. Narveson was 28 but he was essentially a rookie. Will a full year under his belt, it's conceivable he'll post better overall numbers too.

 

KC is going to want a pitcher back who's more advanced than the top Brewer guys. They may take a lower level guy if they get say a comparable advanced everyday player. That's why I think the Brewers would have to include Cain to get a Grienke.

[Oldcity]

Yeah, I actually think they'd have to include one of Gamel or Lawrie along with two of Odorizzi, Jeffress, Rogers, Braddock, etc.

[Invader3K]

If they'd take something like Gamel, Rogers, and Jeffress, I think you have to strongly look at it. Not sure if that would quite be enough, though.

[logan82]

If they'd take something like Gamel, Rogers, and Jeffress, I think you have to strongly look at it. Not sure if that would quite be enough, though.

I might go for that deal. I would rather give up McGehee though. As previously stated though, they have several corner guys in their system.

[RyDogg66]

Those Greinke quotes were pretty funny.

[reillymcshane]

BA's Jim Callis fielded a question in the 'Ask BA' column about what prospects a team would/should consider 'untouchable' if they were interested in trading for Greinke. For the Brewers he wrote this:

 

Brewers: None. Brett Lawrie and Jake Odorizzi aren't deal-breakers.

 

http://www.baseballameric...ask-ba/2010/2610854.html

 

Just thought i'd pass it on.

[dadofandrew]

6.5 years of Lawrie would be to me. Weeks has played 5.6 years in MIL, Braun 3.7 thus far. Lawrie is younger and has played at levels advanced for his age. For small markets, those pre-arby years are vital.

[GAME05]

i'm a Lawrie fan (who isn't?), and certainly he's playing great at advanced levels for his age, but what about him says that he's a sure-fire All-Star like Jeter was when he was coming up with the Yankees? is he better than LaPorta was with us? LaPorta looked to have figured things out the second half of this season, but he didn't figure it out immediately. we're saying 6.5 years of cheap production, but the reality is probably 2 years starting a struggling player, 2 years as a good player and 2 years as a great player. not that a trade would just be Lawrie, but we'd be trading two years of greatness for two years of greatness in Greinke without putting up with the struggles that new players have.

[paul253]

I think in general the player for prospect trade favors the player. In this case, we're talking about one of the best pitchers in the game and we'd make a huge improvement in the rotation. That being said I'd only be willing to trade two of what I consider our top five prospects (Lawrie, Gamel, Odorizzi, Rogers, and Jeffress) plus a few others.

[craigharmann]

It would be great if a package of Lawrie or Gamel, Odirizzi, Green and maybe an A ball pitcher gets Greinke.

[brewtank34]

It would be great if a package of Lawrie or Gamel, Odirizzi, Green and maybe an A ball pitcher gets Greinke.

 

If that's what it takes to get Greinke, I'll pass. Lawrie and Gamel are everday players that are going to produce above average numbers and Odirizzi is a young stud that we can wait patiently for another year and a half.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, but how do we possibly compete in the next couple seasons if we don't trade for a Greinke type starter? There aren't any realistic answers in free agency. Hopefully Prince can be flipped for a young high upside starter that's MLB ready, but that isn't necessarily going to be enough to turn us into a contender next year.

[trwi7]

Why do we have to compete? Why can't we just wait a couple years and see how our prospects do?

[paul253]

If that's what it takes to get Greinke, I'll pass. Lawrie and

Gamel are everday players that are going to produce above average

numbers and Odirizzi is a young stud that we can wait patiently for

another year and a half.

 

Just to clarify, he said Lawrie OR Gamel, not Lawrie AND Gamel. Also, I think Odorizzi is more like 2-3 years instead of a year and a half. If I could get Greinke for Gamel, Odorizzi, Green and an A Ball pitcher, I'd do it. But the Brewers would really have to hit in the next draft with two top 15 picks. If they trade for Greinke you'd have to believe they'd hang onto Fielder, meaning probably two more first round draft picks in 2012.

[RockCoCougars]

Why do we have to compete? Why can't we just wait a couple years and see how our prospects do?

To quote Dennis Green, "you play to win the game". I suffered through enough rebuilding during the 90's and 00's. This team definitely has the offense to compete. If they aren't horrible on defense, can pick up one legit starter and 'get lucky' with another starter to step up, they should be competitive. Greinke is probably the best guy out there that is a possibility. If Weeks can be extended, I have no problem including Lawrie in a deal for Greinke. First of all, as 30 some years as a Brewer fan as taught me, no prospect is a sure thing. Secondly, the Brewers have a surplus of offense, and Lawrie is probably their most valuable trading chip. This doesn't even mention the fact that his stats in the minors have been less than stellar, and he doesn't even have a position decided for the long term. If my instincts are correct, and he ends up in the outfield, I don't see too much risk in trading him as outfielders are fairly easy to find (especially considering that Braun, Cain and Hart are under team control for quite a while). If he was still catching, I'd be much less inclined to trade him.

 

Actually, I think that it was Herm Edwards with the "you play to win the game" quote. I apologize to him for not giving proper credit.

[kramnoj]

I think the answer to that question is do the prospects project to be a championship contender? I don't know.

 

The assumption is that Prince is gone, and there's no guarantee that Weeks is going to stay. Quite a few here don't believe that Casey will have future value compared to his past production. We have Lawrie ready in a year or two, but are there bats in the minors to replace the production that may be leaving or declining?

 

The pitching is there to improve, but when will the pitching be at its peak to be a serious contender? 2-3 years from now? By that time there's a decent chance that Hart will be in decline.

 

IMO, if Prince could be dealt for a solid young starter and the Brewers could trade for Greinke, I think that would represent the best combination of talent the Brewers could field for the foreseeable future. That would be risking quite a bit of talent to go for it in one year, especially building off a 77 Win club, but it could be a very exciting year.

 

And if it doesn't work out (and chances are, even with all that talent, the Brewers wouldn't get to the WS), then you've decreased the competitive ability for years to come.

 

I would be curious for anybody who follows the minors, if they would show a roster that they believe to be the best chance for a Brewers title based only on players currently in the system. When would that be, and how many wins realistically could the Brewers hope for in that year? If we optimistically have that chance a few years down the road, then don't make this trade. But if we think that it most likely is a mid 80's win team, there could be some justification for going for it next year.

[The Truth]

After watching the San Francisco Giants dominate the post-season, I am all for giving up young hitting prospects for great pitching. Granted the Giants' staff are all home-grown, but the bottom line is you need great pitching to compete in MLB. Even the Rangers with as great of hitting as they have would have gotten nowhere without Cliff Lee

 

I would, for the same reason, be hesitant to give up Odorizzi, Rivas, Jeffress, or Rogers however...

[logan82]

Why should we try to get lucky in the next couple years and suffer an even longer down period a few years from now? I look at it as we can suffer for a year or two or be almost competitive the next couple years and suffer for several years after that. We are still building up our talent base to be consistently good.

[craigharmann]

If that's what it takes to get Greinke, I'll pass. Lawrie and

Gamel are everday players that are going to produce above average

numbers and Odirizzi is a young stud that we can wait patiently for

another year and a half.

 

Just to clarify, he said Lawrie OR Gamel, not Lawrie AND Gamel. Also, I think Odorizzi is more like 2-3 years instead of a year and a half. If I could get Greinke for Gamel, Odorizzi, Green and an A Ball pitcher, I'd do it. But the Brewers would really have to hit in the next draft with two top 15 picks. If they trade for Greinke you'd have to believe they'd hang onto Fielder, meaning probably two more first round draft picks in 2012.

Yes, I did say Gamel or Lawrie. The guys I want to keep are Jeffress and Rogers, and out of Gamel or Lawrie, I'd like to keep Lawrie. If they'd take Gamel, Green and Odorizzi along with a lower/fringe prospect, I'd do that.

[paul253]

We are still building up our talent base to be consistently good.

 

Isn't that how you thought of the team when Fielder, Weeks, Hart, Hardy, Gwynn, Gallardo, and Braun were all coming up? The farm system was rated as the best in all of baseball when those guys were coming up and what did it get us? One playoff appearance which was only because of a mid season trade and unhuman-like performance by Sabathia. You cannot win in baseball without pitching. We still don't really have any at the major league level, and the offense is about to drop off significantly with Fielder

leaving. As much as I would love to hold on to Odorizzi, I don't think

you can bank on him being a solid major leaguer quite yet. He's one injury from dropping completely off the prospect radar. If we can get Greinke without mortgaging the farm, which I don't think we'll have to do, we should go for it. I would make my offer something like this: Either Gamel and Odorizzi plus something or Lawrie and Jeffress plus something. I really like Rogers and don't want to give him up.