Zack Greinke [Latest: Deal for Odorizzi/Cain/Escobar/Jeffress in place? reply 464]

[AJAY]

I am all for going after Zack Greinke. Doug Melvin needs to be aggressive on this one.

 

But do we necessarily have to keep Fielder if we acquire Greinke? If we can get another strong starting pitcher by trading Fielder, that might help us more than Fielder's bat. Plus, trading Fielder frees up more salary to pay Grienke and / or make other moves.

[PrinceFielderx1]

You'd think that with this off-seasons weak 3B market the Brewers could get more for McGehee then they could for Fielder. I like the Idea of trading for Greinke, and trading Fielder (package) for another top starting pitcher. I'd like to see the Brewers go after a young player like Jed Lowrie from Boston. Move him to 3B and move McGehee to 1B. That would improve the defense and help to balance out the offense after losing Fielder in a trade.

 

I have a hard time seeing the Brewers as a contender next season by only adding Greinke. If the Brewers are going to go for it they need to get a second pitcher.

[nate82]

But do we necessarily have to keep Fielder if we acquire Greinke? If we can get another strong starting pitcher by trading Fielder, that might help us more than Fielder's bat. Plus, trading Fielder frees up more salary to pay Grienke and / or make other moves.

Yes and no. It would be nice to replenish the farm system with the picks that you would get for Prince leaving. Two first round picks would be really nice to have if you are going to do a big trade like this for Greinke.

[trwi7]

I still can't get behind this. Even with Greinke I don't think this is a playoff team. Why are we wasting cheap assets in the hopes that maybe we get to the playoffs next year. Then we lose Fielder and Greinke is in the final year of his deal and we're left with draft picks. Pass.

[And That]

Before I'd finalize a deal for Greinke, I'd want to be able to talk to him about an extension.

[Invader3K]

Before I'd finalize a deal for Greinke, I'd want to be able to talk to him about an extension.

Everyone likes to throw out these ideas, but "trade and sign" deals just do not happen very much in MLB. I'm guessing Greinke is pretty much set on "testing the market", at this point.

If Melvin does decide to trade for Greinke, he should do it knowing he'll like be gone after next season.

 

[And That]

Everyone likes to throw out these ideas, but "trade and sign" deals just do not happen very much in MLB. I'm guessing Greinke is pretty much set on "testing the market", at this point.

I didn't say I wanted him to sign him to an extension before trading for him, I said I wanted to talk about one. If there was some interest on his side of staying in Milwaukee beyond the end of his current deal, I'd be more likely to give up 3-4 big pieces for him.

[greeg35]

I would only give up good prospects IF the extension was a done deal; which would be extremely unlikely, so basically I would be opposed to this move.

[twobrewers]

Very imperfect, but...

 

Greinke was 5.2 wins above replacement this year and 9.4 last year. Can we just average that and say he is about 7 wins above replacement?

 

Parra/Suppan etc were all basically replacement level pitchers. So I could easily see Greinke adding 7 wins, which would put us at 84-78.

 

Prince rebounding back to form and Hoffman not giving away a bunch of games could add around 5 more wins. With Greinke, I'd predict the Brewers right around 90 wins. That certainly wouldn't guarentee a playoff spot - but we would be in the discussion all year long. Plus, I'd like our chances with Greinke & Yo in any playoff series.

[RockCoCougars]

My guess is that any trade for Greinke will have to start with Lawrie and one of Jeffress or Rogers. Adding McGehee to the mix would probably get it done (remember that he could DH in the AL). That's a pretty steep price to pay, but if you do this, I think that you have to keep Prince next year and give it one more run with the core intact.

[PrinceFielderx1]

"Zack Greinke has until after the World Series to notify the Royals about the 8-10 teams on his no-trade list, reports Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star."

 

link

[PrinceFielderx1]

I'm in the camp that says trade for Greinke and make it contingent on an extension.

[TheCrew07]

The Brewers likely would get competition from their own division, as I could see both the Reds and Cubs getting heavily involved.

Did you mean the Cards and Cubs? Why would Cincy need him? They already have Volquez, Cueto, Leake, Bailey, and Chapman all coming back, all youngish, and all relatively cheap? Maybe Chapman doesn't stick in the rotation but I have feeling he was just slowed down innings wise similar to David Price when he pitched in relief for the Rays through the 08 playoffs. Not that any of those guys are finished products but Cincy already got to the post season with these guys. I guess what I mean is if we had their starting pitching, there's no way I'd want Melvin to make a move for him.

 

I saw Leake ended up on the DL for a while and then didn't pitch again this season, but did I miss something like TJ or shoulder surgery?

 

It's really irritating that the Cubs farm system is steadily improving, damn you Tim Wilken.

[paul253]

It's really irritating that the Cubs farm system is steadily improving, damn you Tim Wilken.

 

Knowing the Cubs they'll probably get Greinke for 2 average minor leaguers that have been hyped up....similar to Bobby Hill and Hee Sop-Choi. They seem to make the best deals for established players.

[ELCABALLO45]

I don't know exactly what we would have to give up for Greinke but if somehow we got him, I would just like to say I would be really really gitty.

[craigharmann]

I would just like to say I would be really really gitty.

I quickly read this and read gRitty instead of gitty, and I thought what gritty players do we still have to trade? Then, I slowed down, re-read it and figured out that giddy was meant. I think all Brewer fans would be giddy, ecstatic, and plain ol' very happy to have Greinke.

[derflotr]

If this is seriously a possibility I would hope that DM does everything possible to help make it happen. I just don't know where else the pitching help is going to come from. I know a lot of posters here, including me, have attached themselves to some of our farm system's best, but I would trade just about anything to get a guy like Greinke. Assuming the package is all current minor-leaguers, the Brewers would instantly become a legitimate playoff contender and a really tough out once they get there for a couple years. I would be really disappointed if Milwaukee is on his no-trade list. If nothing else it would just kill my false hopes.

[GAME05]

Colby, you make a good point about Melvin maybe wanting to make a big splash in order to save his job. usually a GM doesn't get to hire as many managers as Melvin has and still have a lot of job security. if status quo means fielding a .500 team for another two years, i don't think Melvin would still be around to see things improve.

 

i was trying to think of a counter argument for still trading Fielder if we traded for Grienke, but i can't think of one. it's not even about going for it next year, but because we'd be drained of top prospects to get Grienke, and we'd probably want Fielder around for either two draft picks or trade him for a handful of prospects if it doesn't work out in 2011. trade Fielder now and you'd have a pretty decent player in return, but we'd have no real minor-league depth left to cover an injury.

 

If I was KC and Milwaukee offered me Rogers, Jeffress and Odorizzi, I'd take it in a New York minute.

i wouldn't. Rogers and Jeffress i think need more time to get back on the ML prospect radar, and Odorizzi hasn't seen a AAA inning yet. for Grienke's remaining years at a great cost, he'll fetch two blue-chippers at least, and i don't think either of those three are quite there yet. i just think KC could get a much bigger haul from someone else.

[logan82]

usually a GM doesn't get to hire as many managers as Melvin has and still have a lot of job security

 

It is kind of questionable wether he actually fired one of his managers though. Not to many managers get fired while in contention with only a few games remaining.

[Invader3K]

To take it a slightly different way: Would a package like Escobar/Gamel/a minor league pitcher be enticing to KC?

[colbyjack]

Did you mean the Cards and Cubs? Why would Cincy need him? They already have Volquez, Cueto, Leake, Bailey, and Chapman all coming back, all youngish, and all relatively cheap?

 

Nope, I meant the Reds. They have some nice young arms, but are lacking the staff ace that pretty much all of the other playoff teams boasted. Some of the pitchers you mentioned could still develop into one, but for the most part I think they know what they have in Volzquez and Cueto, Leake is solid but probably not an ace, Bailey looks to be a 5th starter or bullpen arm, and as you noted we don't really know yet what they have in Chapman as far as his future role is concerned. They have the talent in their system, including the possibility of moving one of these pitchers, to make a move for Grienke, and they haven't been shy about making big moves in recent years.

 

i was trying to think of a counter argument for still trading Fielder if we traded for Grienke, but i can't think of one. it's not even about going for it next year, but because we'd be drained of top prospects to get Grienke, and we'd probably want Fielder around for either two draft picks or trade him for a handful of prospects if it doesn't work out in 2011. trade Fielder now and you'd have a pretty decent player in return, but we'd have no real minor-league depth left to cover an injury.

 

As I noted above, even if the team doesn't re-sign Greinke, they would possibly get comp picks for him as well (I say possibly since there may be some changes to the draft structure in 2012 with the next CBA -- of which that could really effect what they choose to do with Fielder as well).

 

I know a lot of people don't want to thin out the system to acquire one player, and I think many of those people don't think the team is close to contending, at least not for next year. However, I really doubt the team views it the same way, especially ownership. We've seen what a pitcher like Cliff Lee can do for a team, and we know first-hand after having Sabathia for a handful of months two years ago. One player on paper may not significantly transform the team, but a player of Greinke's ability could transcend this team and take them to the next level.

 

We all know what the offense is capable of if kept intact, and the way Fielder's career has gone so far, he's due for a huge season next year. 1-5 the lineup is pretty solid, and there is improvement for the 6-8 hitters. There is depth for the bullpen, and there are enough options to round out the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation. If the team is competitive they can always add another arm at the deadline, and if not, they could look to move Fielder and Greinke for prospect packages.

 

Acquiring a player like Greinke, or going out and signing a pitcher like Cliff Lee (which I don't think would happen -- if the Yankees get involved good luck bidding against them) is the one, single and easiest move that could be made to significantly improve the team. It's going to take a lot to get him, but I really want to see this team playing this time of year next year.

 

Of course Greinke's no-trade list could make this a moot point in a couple of weeks.

[paul253]

I'll admit I've really been going back and forth on this, but now I am back in the go for Greinke camp. He'd be here for two years, which is huge. I think the emergence of Mark Rogers is really what put me over the top. I am now more ok with trading Jeffress than I was a few months ago. And honestly if they resign Weeks you don't really need Lawrie. You have the opportunity in the next two years to restock the system with two first round picks this year plus possibly two and a comp the year after that. If Weeks walks they could have 5 picks before the second round depending of course on the CBA that Colby was talking about (it's weird but I've been calling for them to fix the draft for awhile and the year they could finally do it could really, really screw the Brewers over).

 

Anyway, if I were Milwaukee, I'd offer something like this:

 

KC can pick either Rogers, Jeffress, or Odorizzi

KC can also pick either Gamel or Lawrie

KC can pick one of the following lower ceiling prospects: Garfield, Gindl, Green, Bucci, Butler (basically insert your own names here).

 

I just don't feel like you can give up both Rogers and Jeffress because then you are back down to not really having any home grown pitchers prospects near. I have been a big Rivas fan for a while, but I can't see him being that top of the rotation guy that I can see the other two being. Odorizzi is still probably at least two years away and will likely be breaking in right around the time Gallardo's contract is up. You still don't really know what you have with Peralta and Scarpetta, though both seem like they could be contributors.

 

Anyway, if he accepts a trade to Milwaukee, I think they have to make a strong push to get him.

[TooLiveBrew]

I know a lot of people don't want to thin out the system to acquire one player, and I think many of those people don't think the team is close to contending, at least not for next year. However, I really doubt the team views it the same way, especially ownership. We've seen what a pitcher like Cliff Lee can do for a team, and we know first-hand after having Sabathia for a handful of months two years ago. One player on paper may not significantly transform the team, but a player of Greinke's ability could transcend this team and take them to the next level.

 

I think I'm one of those "people", and I agree that my hesitancy is due to not thinking one player will make a big enough difference. But you make a good point about the value of an ace. I think the only thing I'd want to be sure to do is retain one of Jeffress/Rogers. And I think the Brewers should still have the prospects to get this done without losing both of those arms.

 

That said, if Grienke's 2009 K rate is merely a fluky blip on the radar, is he really worth dealing for as if he's the equivalent of a Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay?

[PrinceEatMeat]

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/105359658.html

 

TH chimes in on the situation. Apparently the Royals are officially making Greinke available. I say go get him Doug!

[TooLiveBrew]

From link in TH's post, excerpt from the blog entry by Sam Mellinger:

The Royals will need a package that begins with a big-league ready stud prospect, and at least another piece or two that the fan base can believe in. In other words, they need to get back more than Neifi Perez or the Mark Teahen All-Stars.

Granted, this reads like Mellinger's own speculation, but would that mean something like Gamel+Rogers/Jeffress+Lawrie? If Mellinger is correct, I'd have to think that's about what the Brewers would have to give.

 

 

And from a link in Mellinger's post, excerpt from an article by Royals beat writer Bob Dutton:

The Royals will want multiple ready-now prospects in return for a player making $13.5 million over each of the next two seasons. Few teams have that much available payroll, and teams are increasingly hesitant to trade top prospects.

Gamel+Rogers would seem to be the starting point, if both of these writers' postulation is correct. If the Brewers could complete this deal from there without having to include Lawrie & Jeffress, I'd be ecstatic. Maybe Odorizzi as the third piece?