Zack Greinke [Latest: Deal for Odorizzi/Cain/Escobar/Jeffress in place? reply 464]

[thebruce44]

ramssuperbowl99[/b]]

thebruce44 wrote:

I agree that a Greinke trade would include one of Lawrie and Odorizzi, but the proposed offer isn't nearly as bad as you make it seem.

 

Last years Top 100 list means relatively little at this point in time. Rogers is a top 100 prospect at this point, maybe a top 30. Rivas will be up there as well, not because he has the massive upside of Rogers/Odorizzi, but because he is nearly ready to be a cheap, controlled middle of the rotation pitcher. That is extremely valuable, especially to a team like KC (and of course for the Brewers).

 

So while I agree with your main point, I can't agree with you (and many others) pointing to last years prospect rankings as a reason to be down on certain pitchers in the organization who have taken big steps forward (in Mark's case giant leaps).

People have asked questions to BA (and others) during the year about whether Mark Rogers is a top 100 prospect. The answer was always no, and you think he's a top 30 prospect? Yesterday Jim Callis came out and said he thinks Rogers is more likely to be a bullpen arm; Keith Law has said the same thing. Callis admitted that maybe he could be a #3 (perfect world, a #2), but this "top prospect in baseball" praise. Heck, BA redid their top 50 during the middle of the season, and Rogers wasn't on that. Neither was Odorizzi, who, as everyone here would admit, is a significantly better prospect than Rogers. Callis has come out and said (right after Odorizzi's no hitter) that Odorizzi is a borderline top 100 prospect - he might make the list, he might not. I have no idea how you came to the conclusion that Rogers is now a top 30 prospect.

And a guy like Rivas, a cheap, #4 type starter, has virtually no value to the Royals. They have a system so loaded in pitching between Montgomery, Lamb, Duffy, Crow, Melville, and probably a few I'm forgetting (the first 2 are top 20 prospects, the 3rd might sneak into the top 50 and the others have upside) that a guy who can eat innings means nothing. They are going to be looking for another ace, especially since they are trading an ace away. That means the guy they get in return better have upside and a good chance of reaching it, Rivas has limited upside (maybe a 4, more likely a 5/LR), Rogers is viewed as a longshot to be a #2. Sorry, but that's the industry consensus. Heck, that's how Callis and Co. at BA come up with the rankings - they talk to scouts and GM's and ask what they think.

The only time I referenced top 100 lists in my post was comparing the White Sox's deal for Peavy to the proposed Brewers' deal for Greinke. I know that their preseason list doesn't mean much, but the value gap here is so large that it's ridiculous.

Sorry if you find my opinion on Rogers so rediculous, but if you put so much stock in BA (which I personally don't think is the end all be all, because as others have said TH provides the Brewers rankings for them) it should be noted that Rogers was the #44 prospect in 2006 while struggling in high A based soley off his tools. Now that he has regained those tools and has success in AA, AAA, and hopefully by the end of the year we can say MLB, I don't see how he could possibly not be a top 100 propsect in baseball on BA's list or on anyone else's list. Top 30 may be a little optimistic (though I personally think thats where he is) but I will be disapointed if he isn't top 50.

 

I am about as pessimistic as it comes when talking about Brewers pitching prospects, but I really think you are discounting some of these players based on somewhat questionable sources that shouldn't be considered law.

[twobrewers]

many of the people that follow the minor league forum on an everyday basis, are in a better position to speak of the Brewers' minor leaguers than Tom Haudricourt, who writes the reports for, yup, Baseball America.

I don't believe Haudricourt follows the minor league or talks to many scouts about the Brewers minor league players. However, I think his reports provide great insight into how the Brewers feel about many of their prospects. Most, if not all, of his information comes from talking to people (such as Reid & Melvin) about the minor league system.

[ramssuperbowl99]

thebruce44 wrote:Sorry if you find my opinion on Rogers so rediculous, but if you put so much stock in BA (which I personally don't think is the end all be all, because as others have said TH provides the Brewers rankings for them) it should be noted that Rogers was the #44 prospect in 2006 while struggling in high A based soley off his tools. Now that he has regained those tools and has success in AA, AAA, and hopefully by the end of the year we can say MLB, I don't see how he could possibly not be a top 100 propsect in baseball on BA's list or on anyone else's list. Top 30 may be a little optimistic (though I personally think thats where he is) but I will be disapointed if he isn't top 50.

I am about as pessimistic as it comes when talking about Brewers pitching prospects, but I really think you are discounting some of these players based on somewhat questionable sources that shouldn't be considered law.

You really don't see how he has had enough injury and command issues and should be kept off of anyone's list? People are willing to forget command when you are 20 years old in a tough assignment, but are less forgiving after 2 shoulder surgeries, 3 years on the sidelines, and an assignment that isn't perceived as difficult. If you really think that's where Rogers lies in terms of pitching prospects, I don't know what to tell you, and you really aren't that pessimistic when it comes to Brewers' prospects at all.

[ListachRides]

For what it's worth, Olney said today that a number of GMs believe the Royals will dangle Greinke this fall. I agree that it would take one of Lawrie or Odorizzi, though hopefully not both. Does a package of Lawrie, Jeffress, Peralta and Gomez get us close? That addresses the Royals' two main weaknesses: up-the-middle position players and right-handed pitching. Obviously the Royals would have to believe Lawrie could stay at second to see it that way. I could see substituting Cain or Lucroy for Gomez if necessary, though I think the Royals might be higher on Gomez than most as they seem to emphasize tools over stats.

[paul253]

Does a package of Lawrie, Jeffress, Peralta and Gomez get us close?

 

I'm not sure I would do that trade to be honest, not unless Greinke agrees to an extension. Lawrie and Jeffress are both so close, and I think both have a chance to be real special players. Jeffress is one of the few guys who has a chance to be a real #1 that we have in the system. I just have such a horrible feeling the Brewers are going to switch him to relief. I'd say if they intend to switch him, I'd include him in a trade. If they intend to use him as a starter, I'd hold onto him. Starting in 2012, we could have three years with a rotation including Gallardo, Rogers, and Jeffress, with players like Scarpetta, Rivas, and Peralta competing for spots, and Heckathorn and Odorizzi not far behind.

 

I know I'm the one who started this whole thread, but the emergence of Rogers and Jeffress has really gotten me to change my opinion. Unless Greinke signs an extension, I'm not sure I'd want to give up the future now that the future is so close. I am ready to punt on 2011 if it means if all the pitching prospects continue to progress like they have been. And in 2012, with a rotation full of homegrown pitchers and plenty of offensive talent still in the lineup, this team could not only start winning, but they could do it year in and year out. Getting Greinke will help you for 2 years then you are back where you started.

[ListachRides]

I obviously agree that if you think Jeffress is going to develop into a #1 starter, you keep him. I just think he ends up in the pen more likely than not, which is why I'm willing to move him. I'm also a little skeptical that the Brewers will find a suitable trade partner for Prince this fall. If that's the case and Prince is around, I wouldn't mind trying to make a serious run next year. I honestly believe that the only player in the deal that the Brewers will really miss in 2013 is Lawrie. With the guys you mentioned, there is enough pitching depth in the system that I would still be optimistic about the 2013 staff even without Jeffress and Peralta.

[BrewCrewForever]

In his Insider column today at ESPN.com Buster Olney said that the Royals do intend to listen to all and any offers for Zach Greinke this offseason. Not sure the Brewers have the pieces to trade for him without destroying their future, but he will be available. It would probably take a pretty big package of big league ready prospects to get him.

[twobrewers]

I'd give up any 3 minor league players to get Grienke.

 

IMO, he's that good.

[BrewCrewForever]

I'd give up any 3 minor league players to get Grienke.

 

IMO, he's that good.

What three players? I have been trying to think what combination it would cost to get Greinke.

[BrewCrewForever]

While Greinke is awesome, more than likely we would only have him for the two years left on his contract. So I am not sure he would be worth trading three god players who we could have for much more than 2 years.

[paul253]

I don't know about any three. Would you trade Jeffress, Odorizzi, and Rogers? What happens in two years when Greinke walks? You'd be setting your organization back by years making a trade like that. Look at how long it took to develop three pitchers with this much talent. I just can't see trading all three.

 

What about this trade. Jeffress, Lawrie, Parra and Cameron Garfield? There is a very high ceiling pitcher, and very high ceiling hitter, and a lower level player at a hard to find position and someone you can throw in the rotation right away. If KC would take that, I'd then go to Greinke and say "How much does it take to extend your contract by 2 years?", and whatever he says I give to him. Then I trade Prince for two hitting prospects, I re-sign Weeks, and I draft two pitchers with those top 15 picks in the 2011 draft. Highly unlikely, I know, but that's what I would love to see.

[derflotr]

I think if you can find a way to acquire Greinke without parting with Rogers or Jeffress I say do it. But I'm not sure if that's possible.

[jerichoholicninja]

It's not like Kansas City is looking to fill holes, they'll want young, minor league players. Prince, Hart, McGehee, Weeks would be of little interest to get Greinke. I can't see any way to get Greinke that would not be devastating to the franchise's 5-8 year outlook.

[craigharmann]

I can't see any way to get Greinke that would not be devastating to the franchise's 5-8 year outlook.

Trades for minor leaguers are crapshoots, anyway. In the span of two years, the Brewers traded Inman, Thatcher, Garrison, Ford, LaPorta, Brantley and Bryson and have those guys reached their potential? Has it set back the Brewers minor leagues? Maybe in terms of depth, but those guys haven't really done what their potential was going to be. In some trades you luck out, and in others you trade John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander or Jeff Bagwell for Larry Andersen. You just never know.

[colbyjack]

So I am not sure he would be worth trading three god players who we could have for much more than 2 years.

 

If it puts the Brewers back into playoff contention I'd say it would be worth it.

 

It's not like Kansas City is looking to fill holes, they'll want young, minor league players. Prince, Hart, McGehee, Weeks would be of little interest to get Greinke. I can't see any way to get Greinke that would not be devastating to the franchise's 5-8 year outlook.

 

I know you're looking for a way to trade an existing big-league player to avoid tapping into the minor leagues, but I actually think the Royals needs and overall timeline benefits the Brewers in that they probably wouldn't have to give up anything of substantial value on the current big-league roster. Clearly the idea of getting Greinke is to go for it next year.

 

Trades for minor leaguers are crapshoots, anyway. In the span of two years, the Brewers traded Inman, Thatcher, Garrison, Ford, LaPorta, Brantley and Bryson and have those guys reached their potential? Has it set back the Brewers minor leagues? Maybe in terms of depth, but those guys haven't really done what their potential was going to be. In some trades you luck out, and in others you trade John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander or Jeff Bagwell for Larry Andersen. You just never know.

 

Excellent point, and something to keep in mind when evaluating prospects. I really like the idea of going out to get Greinke, with a package similar to what Paul proposed. I mentioned this in another thread too, but then keep Fielder for next year as well and truly go for it. I'm not too worried about 5-8 years down the road (although don't think dealing prospects would be that disastrous), I want to see this team win, and acquiring Greinke could keep that window open for 2012 too.

[jerichoholicninja]

I think the main point I forgot to mention was the Royals need cheap players. Prince and Hart cost too much for the position the Royals are in right now. Weeks is affordable now but will cost a lot soon. McGehee I suppose could be of value to them seeing as he will be cheap for a while but they have a couple first basemen already and their top prospects are 3rd basemen I believe. Would the Royal try to resign Price at the end of this year? Yes but there is no way he would. In KC Hart would be quite overpaid considering his inconsistent career and their lack of needing to win now. Weeks could be good for them but he's in a similar situation to Prince.

 

Yes I agree minor leaguers are a crapshoot. If you look at what we've traded away really none of them have done anything. Brantley and LaPorta definitely still could and have had some success already but the rest haven't. Would Grienke help. Hells to the yes. But we cannot afford his next contract and will losing the minor leaguers we trade to get him be worth a few years of Zack. Most importantly I think getting Greinke means losing Prince. Those two contracts are probably too much to be able to afford.

[twobrewers]

Would you trade Jeffress, Odorizzi, and Rogers?

Yes.

 

As mentioned, prospects are a crapshoot. One of those players will probably never really contribute to the major league roster. One will probably be an average relief pitcher. You hope that the other turns into a #2 pitcher.

 

All three have a ceiling around #2 - but very few pitchers in the minor leagues reach their ceiling.

 

Grienke (plus Fielder) makes the Brewers playoff contenders.

But we cannot afford his next contract and will losing the minor leaguers we trade to get him be worth a few years of Zack.

You don't know that Grienke wouldn't be open to a long-term contract. Assuming the Brewers lose Fielder to free agency, they will be flush with cash.

[endaround]

It would take something like Gamel, Lawrie and Jeffress to get Greinke.

[paul253]

As mentioned, prospects are a crapshoot. One of those players will

probably never really contribute to the major league roster. One will

probably be an average relief pitcher. You hope[/i] that the other turns into a #2 pitcher.

I don't know. I think two of them will contribute to the major league roster next season, at least one as a starter. I think by 2011 both will be with the team all year. Even if they only turn into #3 or #4 type pitchers, they can still have a positive affect on Milwaukee by not forcing Milwaukee to overspend on free agent pitching. Just being on the roster and in the rotation could conceivably save the Brewers $5-$10 million a deal, which could obviously be put elsewhere. The other, Odorizzi, is the Brewers top pitching prospect. Obviously his future is more up in the air because he'll only be in A+ ball. I think Rogers and Jeffress both have the ceiling of a #1 and I think Odorizzi has the ceiling of a #2. I'm not saying I wouldn't trade any of them, just that I wouldn't trade all of them. And let's not overpay for Greinke. I know he's a pitcher and I know he has one more year on his contract that Fielder does, but if all we can get for Fielder is a pitcher with #3 upside, I don't think it will take three #2/borderline #1starting pitching prospects to get Greinke. If I was KC and Milwaukee offered me Rogers, Jeffress and Odorizzi, I'd take it in a New York minute.

[dadofandrew]

I guessed Cain, Gamel, and Odorozzi on Ramblings. End's guess is likely close as well. Substitute Jeremy for Jake, and add a 1B to replace Prince from KC, you might have a deal that lets the Crew keep Lawrie and still gets the deal done.

 

EDIT: Guys like McGehee, McClendon and Braddock could work their way into a blockbuster like this. The Crew might prefer Zach to Jeffress, as loogys are usually plentiful in free agency, and Jeremy's ceiling is higher, as no one thinks ZB could be a SP, with his arm history. Zach is more than a loogy, but relievers have limited upside.

[twobrewers]

Even if they only turn into #3 or #4 type pitchers, they can still have a positive affect on Milwaukee by not forcing Milwaukee to overspend on free agent pitching.

I'd like to think that #3 and #4 type pitchers don't really cost $5-$10 million a year. Having to deal with Suppan & Davis, Brewer fans seem to over compesate by wanting to keep all young and cheap #4 pitchers to avoid Melvin making his same mistakes.

 

Also, I'd much rather deal Gamel, Lawrie and Jeffress than Jeffress, Rogers and Odorizzi - but I'd be willing to do either. This is all with the assumption that trading for Grienke means we are keeping Prince for a year and getting two draft picks from him when he leaves to help replenish the farm system.

[nate82]

If the Brewers have a legitimate shot at getting Greinke they have to go for it especially if the Brewers feel as if they would be a legitimate contender with Greinke in the rotation. Prince definitely returns if the Brewers deal for Greinke and I agree the Brewers would have enough to resign Greinke after Prince leaves.

[paul253]

I'd like to think that #3 and #4 type pitchers don't really cost $5-$10 million

 

I meant actually $2.5-$5 each and then two cheaper players replacing two more expensive players, which would bring the total to $5-$10 million. I was thinking of the Loopers, the Suppans, the Dave Bush's when I made that statement.

 

I think we all agree we'd have to deal at least one pitcher between Odorizzi, Jeffress and Rogers. Between the three of them I'd pick Jeffress. I was real high on him until I saw him pitch in Milwaukee. Whereas Rogers seemed to have a real smooth, easy delivery, Jeffress seemed to have a lot of movement in his that would make it harder to repeat. I'd guess Roger's control has a better chance of improving than Jeffress', but that's just a guess. So we start with Jeffress. Then we'd probably have to add either another one of those two or Lawrie. I'd prefer it to be Lawrie because we can resign Weeks and then we'd be mostly set at the positions Lawrie can play. Plus I think it's easier to draft and develop hitters than it is pitchers. So Jeffress and Lawrie. Since those are both advanced, high ceiling prospects, I think you can add a third, lower level, lower ceiling prospect....whether it be a pitcher or a hitter. I think we then keep Prince for a year, let him walk and take the two picks. That would hopefully get us two first round picks for the second straight year, plus a comp pick. That should be able to help ease whatever blow we take from trading for Greinke.

[endaround]

A #3 pitcher is a 2 win pitcher and they do cost $8-10m as FAs.

[colbyjack]

I really hope Melvin makes this happen, and I'm encouraged that several people seem willing to part with several of the team's top young prospects. Melvin did pull the deal for Sabathia, and reportedly was after Halladay last offseason as well as Cliff Lee and Jake Peavy during the 2009 season. He's shown he's willing to deal the prospects when he needs to, and there may be a little more urgency this offseason, not only to save his job but to live up to playoff expectations after two seasons of not living up to expectations.

 

The Brewers are aided by the fact that they play in the opposite league as the Royals. Similar to when the Twins dealt Johan Santana, they may lean towards moving Greinke to the NL, and supposedly Greinke has a limited no-trade clause that includes the New York Yankees. You would think that even if the Royals do deal Greinke to an AL club, they won't trade within their division, ruling teams such as the Twins, White Sox and Tigers out.

 

The Rangers would seem like a potential front-runner should Cliff Lee leave via FA, as they will have an obvious hole to fille while also having a ton of young prospects to deal from.

 

The Brewers likely would get competition from their own division, as I could see both the Reds and Cubs getting heavily involved.

 

The Red Sox and Angels seem to have the starting pitching in place, but you never know with those two teams. The Mets always seem to be involved with big-name players. The Dodgers probably don't have the resources to pull a trade off. The Rockies do.

 

And the Royals don't have to move Greinke. He's signed to a very favorable deal through the next two years, so whatever package is offered is going to have to be enough to tempt the Royals to make the deal now, knowing that whatever team acquires him can easily flip him at the deadline either this year or next for another strong package of players.

 

I agree 100% that if Greinke is acquired Fielder needs to be retained. The move is all about going for it next year.