Zack Greinke [Latest: Deal for Odorizzi/Cain/Escobar/Jeffress in place? reply 464]

[RockCoCougars]

I'd do a Lawrie, Parra, Gomez, and Rogers or Rivas deal. I don't know if Kansas City would do it, but that's probably as good of an offer that they would get from me. Greinke and Gallardo would be a solid one-two punch and barring injury, they would give the Brewers a two year window. I'd still prefer to work Jack Z. (provided that he's still employed) for Hernandez. It would be tough for him to turn down a deal built around Prince (who he could flip for more prospects) and two more of his number one picks (Lawrie and Jeffress/Rogers)- I'd give him Parra too.

 

Though these players both may be pipe dreams, they should at least be pursued due to the fact that there are recent ties to the organization with both Yost and Jack Z.. If there are other players that either of them favor, put them on the table as well (outside of Braun, Weeks, and Gallardo).

[reillymcshane]

davidoff of newsday (not the most reliable source) says that Greinke could be dealt since the Royals know they won't be competitive over the next two years.

 

two years of greinke would be awesome - guys like this aren't on the market often. as people say, perhaps a 3-way trade, sending Prince for a couple of decent prospects that the Royals want. I'd like to not have to trade Lawrie. I guess it depends on what we can get for Prince.

 

http://www.newsday.com/sp...son-1.2301292?print=true

 

Rotation of:

 

Gallardo

Greinkee

Wolf

Narverson (I didn't think he was an option, but he's been pitching great lately)

TBD

[Never Outhustled]

I agree. Hopefully whoever is interested in Fielder has a GM who pursues 3 team deals. Detroit would fit that description. Greinke is exactly what we need.

 

Brewers

Out:

Fielder

Gomez

Rivas

 

In:

Greinke

 

Tigers

Out:

Brennan Boesch

Jacob Turner

Andrew Oliver

 

In:

Fielder

 

Royals

Out:

Greinke

 

In:

Boesch

Turner (stud prospect and Missouri native helps Royals with the PR hit of dealing an ace pitcher)

Oliver

Gomez

Rivas

 

Edit: Thanks Tri7

[trwi7]

I just don't think this team should be doing deals like that right now.

 

Edit: Also, Shelby Miller is a Cardinals prospect.

[Never Outhustled]

I just don't think this team should be doing deals like that right now.

 

OK, but can you explain why?

[trwi7]

Taking away Fielder and replacing him with Greinke. Ehh, it just doesn't make us much better. I'd rather use 2011 as a rebuilding year.

[Never Outhustled]

Taking away Fielder and replacing him with Greinke. Ehh, it just doesn't make us much better. I'd rather use 2011 as a rebuilding year.

 

So you think they're going to slash payroll by $20 million next year? That's rather extreme. They'll sign a FA, just not a pitcher. If they deal Fielder for Greinke, then sign Werth, Crawford, or Beltre, they'll be about 5 WAR better, thats a huge improvement. They'd also still have a surplus of position players. By dealing a 2nd hitter, they make themselves a winning team and possible contender.

 

Greinke also will be our ace in 2012 too. Why wouldn't you want that? How many years do you plan on taking to rebuild?

[reillymcshane]

And if you got Greinke now, and the Crew are competitive the next couple of years, you'd probably have a better chance to resign him at that time. He's had his anxiety issues, so he might appreciate playing in a smaller market - that contends.

[chadomac]

I agree that Greinke is exactly what we need. A #1/#2 guy that has a substantial salary on a team that doesn't have a shot next year. We can afford to absorb that salary and he might give us a shot. Hopefully they'd take prospects other than Lawrie but I don't know.

[logan82]

I agree that Greinke is exactly what we need. A #1/#2 guy that has a substantial salary on a team that doesn't have a shot next year. We can afford to absorb that salary and he might give us a shot. Hopefully they'd take prospects other than Lawrie but I don't know.

I wouldn't say exactly. Talent wise maybe but I think we need a guy who will be around more than a couple years. We are not exactly overflowing with pitching talent right now or in the near future.

 

 

I would not pin my hopes on him wanting to stay just because he had some anxiety problems. Time and again we have seen guys go where the money is.

[YostInfection]

Call me uninformed....but if there is ANY chance we could obtain Greinke, you do it....2-way, 3-way...Fielder, Rogers, Rivas, Lawrie, whoever it takes, you get it done.

 

2 years of control, the switch from the AL to the NL and the ensuing drop in ERA and WHIP, the co-ace to put next to Gallardo.

 

Yikes, I think this is a no-brainer...maybe I am missing something.

[paul253]

Call me uninformed....but if there is ANY chance we could obtain

Greinke, you do it....2-way, 3-way...Fielder, Rogers, Rivas, Lawrie,

whoever it takes, you get it done.

 

I disagree. It would be nice to have him, for sure. But if it takes trading Rivas, Rogers and Jeffress to get him I would pass. You need to improve the overall talent of your pitching staff. While Greinke would be a major upgrade, you also need to upgrade the rest of the rotation. You can't keep trotting out the likes of Suppan, Looper, Bush, and Davis. I'd be willing to include one of Rivas, Rogers, Jeffress or Odorizzi, but not more. Anything else would have to be position prospects and then maybe someone like Manny Parra. I just don't want to give up 6 years of two or more pitchers for two years of Greinke. My ideal trade would be something like this.

 

Greinke for Parra, Rogers/Rivas, Green/Gindl, and Gamel.

[ramssuperbowl99]

My ideal trade would be something like this.

 

Greinke for Parra, Rogers/Rivas, Green/Gindl, and Gamel.

The Royals would laugh and hang up. That's not even close. Greinke is a 6 WAR/year pitcher making not even close to his market value. Manny Parra's only distinction is that he has the highest career BABIP among pitchers with 350 IP since some guys from the 1870's. He's not a top 100 prospect, he's getting old, and, quite frankly, his command hasn't improved. Add in the fact that it's rather obvious he's fallen out of favor with the organization, and there is no way he would headline a trade for a top 5 pitcher in baseball. Rogers they might be interested in, if only because of his velocity, but Rogers isn't a top 100 prospect either. His command isn't good enough. Rivas is a back of the rotation starter is everything breaks right, more likely a 6th starter/long reliever type. Green and Gindle are throw-ins, and the Royals have better in house options. Gamel is also worthless to the Royals considering they already have Billy Butler, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer to man the corners and the DH spot.

No way the Brewers could get Greinke without including one (and maybe both of) Lawrie and Odorizzi. Dayton Moore doesn't need fringe prospects - he has the best farm system in baseball. He would want more premium, elite talent, and there isn't any in that offer.

[paul253]

Yeah and at the beginning of the year we'd all have laughed at the idea of trading Prince Fielder straight up for Daniel Hudson. I realize that pitchers tend to get more in return, but teams aren't willing to throw four top prospects at teams for one player anymore. Look at what the Padres got for Jake Peavy a few years ago. None of them profiled, at least according to BA, as a #1 or #2 starter. Plus, Greinke is having a bit of a down year, at least according to his standards. But anyway, I think you are underestimating both Rogers and Rivas. Rivas has had sustained success at all levels. Rogers has #1 potential as evidenced by strikeouts and hits against. He just needs to refine his command some. If he hadn't missed two consecutive seasons with injury, I'd be willing to guess he'd be a top 100 prospect. Beside, Jake Odorizzi isn't a top 100 prospect either, though I think he probably will be soon.

 

Maybe you'd have to refine the offer to include both Rogers and Rivas along with Parra and Gamel. KC is an ideal place for Parra. He could be given a chance to start and stay in the rotation as they aren't really ready to compete now. But I think you missed my point, which is that I would not give up both Odorizzi and Lawrie to get two years of Greinke. I wouldn't want give up the farm to get one player, especially when the pitching prospects are finally so close.

[ramssuperbowl99]

Yeah and at the beginning of the year we'd all have laughed at the idea of trading Prince Fielder straight up for Daniel Hudson. I realize that pitchers tend to get more in return, but teams aren't willing to throw four top prospects at teams for one player anymore. Look at what the Padres got for Jake Peavy a few years ago. None of them profiled, at least according to BA, as a #1 or #2 starter. Plus, Greinke is having a bit of a down year, at least according to his standards. But anyway, I think you are underestimating both Rogers and Rivas. Rivas has had sustained success at all levels. Rogers has #1 potential as evidenced by strikeouts and hits against. He just needs to refine his command some. If he hadn't missed two consecutive seasons with injury, I'd be willing to guess he'd be a top 100 prospect. Beside, Jake Odorizzi isn't a top 100 prospect either, though I think he probably will be soon.

 

Maybe you'd have to refine the offer to include both Rogers and Rivas along with Parra and Gamel. KC is an ideal place for Parra. He could be given a chance to start and stay in the rotation as they aren't really ready to compete now. But I think you missed my point, which is that I would not give up both Odorizzi and Lawrie to get two years of Greinke. I wouldn't want give up the farm to get one player, especially when the pitching prospects are finally so close.

Jim Callis has come out and said Odorizzi has a solid chance to make the top 100 this year, but that's neither here nor there. Also, Greinke's down year is a 5 WAR season which has his ERA inflated due to a ridiculously low LOB%. He's probably sitting much closer to his ZIPS projection (3.18) in terms of actual skill.

Rogers, Rivas, Parra and Gamel still isn't even close to the value the Royals would want for Greinke. Obviously, Peavy isn't as good then as Greinke is now, as based on his home/away splits, but I'll compare the 2 packages just the same.

Poreda is a 6'6" 240 pound lefty who struggled with command, but was dominating the low minors with a crazy fastball/slider combination. If his command didn't improve much, he was a solid #1, but to say he didn't have a #1 ceiling based on his stuff is wrong. When he was dealt from the White Sox, he was striking out nearly 10 per 9 with an ERA under 2.50 in AA as a 22 year old. He was the headliner, as based on his preseason ranking that year of 63 by BaseballAmerica. No player the in the Brewers' offer matches his prospect status. And it's really not that close.

Clayton Richard was an MLB ready lefty who had demonstrated outstanding control in the minors (check out his 2008 walk rates), had good stuff (a fastball that sits at 91-92 mph) and the body of a solid innings eater. He's essentially what we want Manny Parra to be, albeit with a little fewer strikeouts. This season, he's thrown nearly 200 IP of 3.63 FIP and 3.63 tERA baseball and been an above average starter. He was more valuable than Parra, Rogers or Rivas, given his established MLB pedigree, good stuff, and good command.

Dexter Carter and Adam Russell were throw ins who had big bodies, electric stuff, but minimal probabilities of making extended MLB contributions. Neither has had success, however, scouts were all over Carter's potential. For a different report on it, check the Fangraphs article on the trade:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/peavy-to-the-white-sox-for-real-this-time/

Let's compare that (a potential #1, a solid #3 with virtually no downside, and 2 high ceiling prospects) to your deal.

Aumary Rivas has never made a Brewers' organizational top 10 done by BA, despite his success. He doesn't strike out enough batters or have the raw stuff to miss enough bats and generate enough ground balls to be a #3. His fastball is average, his changeup is a tick above, and his slider is below average. His control has been good enough that he has gotten through the low minors with low walk rates (and thus, a good K/BB ratio of roughly 2.1 for his career), but no scout will call him a #3. He certainly doesn't compare to either of the two elite pitchers the White Sox dealt.

Mark Rogers has extensive injury history, which serves to lower his stock in any trade significantly. The stuff is all back, and I'd expect him to take a huge leap forward next season in terms of his prospect status, but right now he is a 24 year old with significant shoulder wear-and-tear who walked 5.6 per 9 in AA. That's alot more than "refining his command some" - it's a complete overhaul of how many strikes he's throwing. I think he will do it, and I think his walk rate could be 3.5-4.0 in the MLB, but everything else would have to break right for him to be a #1. The odds are that he becomes either an elite closer or a pretty good starter. The kind of guy who will frustrate fans with pitch counts and walks, but will miss enough bats to record 180 IP/season of 3.50 ERA ball. I think he's valuable, and if I did a top 100 list, he'd at least warrant consideration. But he doesn't compare, at least as a prospect right now, to the White Sox top 2 arms.

Mat Gamel actually has negative value to the Royals. They literally don't have any space for him. Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Billy Butler are all better, and Gamel is too bad defensively to play anywhere else. Even if you think you could stick him in RF, Wil Myers will more than likely end up there.

 

Manny Parra is out of favor with the organization. He, for whatever reason, allows so many hits that it is virtually impossible for him to end up being a kind of pitcher the Royals are going to want. His stuff is very good, his command is non-existent, and he hasn't shown any improvement since he broke into the majors in 2007. The Royals would view him as a fringe #5, and they probably aren't that far off, unfortunately. I always thought that his BABIP would come down and we'd see his ERA line up with his FIP and xFIP splits, but a 400 IP sample size is too large to ignore now.

So, the 2 "throw ins" (Parra and Gamel) don't have the ceiling that the Padres got and the top 2 don't have the upside or consistency.

The guy the Royals should be looking at is Lucroy. I could see some combination of him and Odorizzi being the centerpiece of the deal, but if you want to get a talent like Greinke, you need to pony up with top 100 prospects and high-ceiling players. You have done neither.

EDIT: Jim Callis just answered a chat question on Mark Rogers' ceiling.

Jim Callis: If you really dream, you could see his power arm turning him into a No. 2 starter. But his command makes being a No. 3 starter a more realistic, and I still see him as more of a reliever in the long run. His comeback from two shoulder surgeries to regain his stuff is one of the best baseball stories of the year.

[jjkoestler]

If the Brewers somehow manage to acquire Greinke, I hope they go all in.

 

Lucroy, Parra, Gomez, Rivas, Heckathorn/Scarpetta for Greinke. I'd be willing to trade anyone on the Power 50 not named Lawrie, Odorizzi, or Cain.

 

Sign Beltre

 

Sign FA catcher (Can V-Mart still catch?)

 

Sign another SP (Bonderman, de la Rosa, Webb, Vazquez)

 

Flip Casey for a prospect

 

Let Prince walk after 2011 for draft picks.

 

Flip Greinke at 2012 deadline or let walk for draft picks

 

I realize that this would cost a lot in prospects and money, but if the Brewers are going to go for it, let's actually go for it.

 

1B Prince

2B Weeks

SS Escobar

3B Beltre

OF Braun

OF Hart

OF Cain

C FA

 

SP: ZG

SP: Yo

SP: FA

SP: Wolf

SP: Insert 1 of the many Brewers #5s here.

[Never Outhustled]

If the Brewers somehow manage to acquire Greinke, I hope they go all in.

 

Lucroy, Parra, Gomez, Rivas, Heckathorn/Scarpetta for Greinke. I'd be willing to trade anyone on the Power 50 not named Lawrie, Odorizzi, or Cain.

 

Sign Beltre

 

Sign FA catcher (Can V-Mart still catch?)

 

Sign another SP (Bonderman, de la Rosa, Webb, Vazquez)

 

Flip Casey for a prospect

 

Let Prince walk after 2011 for draft picks.

 

Flip Greinke at 2012 deadline or let walk for draft picks

 

I realize that this would cost a lot in prospects and money, but if the Brewers are going to go for it, let's actually go for it.

 

1B Prince

2B Weeks

SS Escobar

3B Beltre

OF Braun

OF Hart

OF Cain

C FA

 

SP: ZG

SP: Yo

SP: FA

SP: Wolf

SP: Insert 1 of the many Brewers #5s here.

 

If we deal for Grienke, keep Fielder, sign Beltre, and a FA catcher, and a FA pitcher, the Brewers would be way way over budget. I do have to say congratulations though, for being the 1st person to have a roster projection for next season that is over-budget. I've grown really sick of all the projections that are $25 million under-budget.

 

[thebruce44]

ramssuperbowl99[/b]]

paul253[/b]]My ideal trade would be something like this.

 

Greinke for Parra, Rogers/Rivas, Green/Gindl, and Gamel.

The Royals would laugh and hang up. That's not even close. Greinke is a 6 WAR/year pitcher making not even close to his market value. Manny Parra's only distinction is that he has the highest career BABIP among pitchers with 350 IP since some guys from the 1870's. He's not a top 100 prospect, he's getting old, and, quite frankly, his command hasn't improved. Add in the fact that it's rather obvious he's fallen out of favor with the organization, and there is no way he would headline a trade for a top 5 pitcher in baseball. Rogers they might be interested in, if only because of his velocity, but Rogers isn't a top 100 prospect either. His command isn't good enough. Rivas is a back of the rotation starter is everything breaks right, more likely a 6th starter/long reliever type. Green and Gindle are throw-ins, and the Royals have better in house options. Gamel is also worthless to the Royals considering they already have Billy Butler, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer to man the corners and the DH spot.

No way the Brewers could get Greinke without including one (and maybe both of) Lawrie and Odorizzi. Dayton Moore doesn't need fringe prospects - he has the best farm system in baseball. He would want more premium, elite talent, and there isn't any in that offer.

I agree that a Greinke trade would include one of Lawrie and Odorizzi, but the proposed offer isn't nearly as bad as you make it seem.

 

Last years Top 100 list means relatively little at this point in time. Rogers is a top 100 prospect at this point, maybe a top 30. Rivas will be up there as well, not because he has the massive upside of Rogers/Odorizzi, but because he is nearly ready to be a cheap, controlled middle of the rotation pitcher. That is extremely valuable, especially to a team like KC (and of course for the Brewers).

 

So while I agree with your main point, I can't agree with you (and many others) pointing to last years prospect rankings as a reason to be down on certain pitchers in the organization who have taken big steps forward (in Mark's case giant leaps).

[paul253]

I could see some combination of him and Odorizzi being the

centerpiece of the deal, but if you want to get a talent like Greinke,

you need to pony up with top 100 prospects and high-ceiling players. You

have done neither.

Obviously you are welcome to your own opinion, but I think you are putting way too much stock in prospect rankings. Especially from Baseball America. If you look at our last top 10 list, Eric Arnett is number 4. The list before that included Cutter Dykstra at #7 and Cole Gillespie at #9. But if you want to look strictly at rankings I would tend to put more stock in the Power 50 list, actually, because the editors of that list have a lot more knowledge about this specific team. If you look at the latest list, the trade I proposed contained 3 of our top 10 prospects (#s 3, 8, and 10), and Amaury Rivas is in the top 10, unlike in the BA list. I also disagree that I have not included any high ceiling players. I think Rogers' ceiling is very high. Literally the only thing hold him back is control, and this was basically his first full year back after two major surgeries, so it is very possible that the control can improve. Jeffress's seemed to improved a lot this season. I also think someone like Rivas who could easily be a #4 pitcher does high a fairly high ceiling. Any trade that could net you 2/5 of your starting rotation as soon as 2012 is something to be looked at. It's very possible, maybe even probable that KC wouldn't accept that specific deal, but like Bruce said, I just don't think it's nearly as bad as you make it sound.

[ramssuperbowl99]

thebruce44 wrote:

I agree that a Greinke trade would include one of Lawrie and Odorizzi, but the proposed offer isn't nearly as bad as you make it seem.

 

Last years Top 100 list means relatively little at this point in time. Rogers is a top 100 prospect at this point, maybe a top 30. Rivas will be up there as well, not because he has the massive upside of Rogers/Odorizzi, but because he is nearly ready to be a cheap, controlled middle of the rotation pitcher. That is extremely valuable, especially to a team like KC (and of course for the Brewers).

 

So while I agree with your main point, I can't agree with you (and many others) pointing to last years prospect rankings as a reason to be down on certain pitchers in the organization who have taken big steps forward (in Mark's case giant leaps).

People have asked questions to BA (and others) during the year about whether Mark Rogers is a top 100 prospect. The answer was always no, and you think he's a top 30 prospect? Yesterday Jim Callis came out and said he thinks Rogers is more likely to be a bullpen arm; Keith Law has said the same thing. Callis admitted that maybe he could be a #3 (perfect world, a #2), but this "top prospect in baseball" praise. Heck, BA redid their top 50 during the middle of the season, and Rogers wasn't on that. Neither was Odorizzi, who, as everyone here would admit, is a significantly better prospect than Rogers. Callis has come out and said (right after Odorizzi's no hitter) that Odorizzi is a borderline top 100 prospect - he might make the list, he might not. I have no idea how you came to the conclusion that Rogers is now a top 30 prospect.

And a guy like Rivas, a cheap, #4 type starter, has virtually no value to the Royals. They have a system so loaded in pitching between Montgomery, Lamb, Duffy, Crow, Melville, and probably a few I'm forgetting (the first 2 are top 20 prospects, the 3rd might sneak into the top 50 and the others have upside) that a guy who can eat innings means nothing. They are going to be looking for another ace, especially since they are trading an ace away. That means the guy they get in return better have upside and a good chance of reaching it, Rivas has limited upside (maybe a 4, more likely a 5/LR), Rogers is viewed as a longshot to be a #2. Sorry, but that's the industry consensus. Heck, that's how Callis and Co. at BA come up with the rankings - they talk to scouts and GM's and ask what they think.

The only time I referenced top 100 lists in my post was comparing the White Sox's deal for Peavy to the proposed Brewers' deal for Greinke. I know that their preseason list doesn't mean much, but the value gap here is so large that it's ridiculous.

Obviously you are welcome to your own opinion, but I think you are putting way too much stock in prospect rankings. Especially from Baseball America. If you look at our last top 10 list, Eric Arnett is number 4. The list before that included Cutter Dykstra at #7 and Cole Gillespie at #9. But if you want to look strictly at rankings I would tend to put more stock in the Power 50 list, actually, because the editors of that list have a lot more knowledge about this specific team. If you look at the latest list, the trade I proposed contained 3 of our top 10 prospects (#s 3, 8, and 10), and Amaury Rivas is in the top 10, unlike in the BA list. I also disagree that I have not included any high ceiling players. I think Rogers' ceiling is very high. Literally the only thing hold him back is control, and this was basically his first full year back after two major surgeries, so it is very possible that the control can improve. Jeffress's seemed to improved a lot this season. I also think someone like Rivas who could easily be a #4 pitcher does high a fairly high ceiling. Any trade that could net you 2/5 of your starting rotation as soon as 2012 is something to be looked at. It's very possible, maybe even probable that KC wouldn't accept that specific deal, but like Bruce said, I just don't think it's nearly as bad as you make it sound.

The Power 50 might be more accurate (I haven't looked at how their top 10 have performed versus BA's over the years) but the BA rankings represent the industry consensus. That's what matters for trades. It doesn't matter if Rivas actually ends up a stud or not, all that matters is how Dayton Moore perceives his value. And, based on the industry reports to BA, Rivas is a fringe prospect. Sorry, that's just the way it is. Maybe the guys who run this site know better, maybe they don't. All I do know is that the guys who run this site don't have as much contact with high ranking officials within baseball as the guys at BA, and for trades, that's what counts.

Obviously Rogers has a high ceiling, but when I mentioned high ceiling players, I meant as the 3rd or 4th guy in the deal. Generally when big name players are dealt, there are a few prospects who are highly rated, close to the majors, and have a high ceiling, then a guy or two who isn't polished, but has a high ceiling. See the Braves' deal for Tex for examples like Neftali Feliz, who had a cannon but was in the low minors at the time. You offered 1 guy with a high ceiling, 2 guys the Royals have no room for (Gamel and Rivas), and a 26 year old veteran with a career ERA over 5 and FIP over 4.4.

In 2012, KC would have a rotation of Mike Montgomery, John Lamb, Danny Duffy, Brian Bannister, Luke Hochevar, maybe Aaron Crow (if he figures out his command), any free agent they choose to go after, and Greinke if they don't trade him. Rogers might crack the back end of that rotation, but I'd take Greinke, Montgomery, Lamb, Duffy, Hochevar, and Crow all over Rivas at this point. I'd think most fans would agree with me. Rivas has no value to the Royals, and I'd probably take the 2 1st round draft picks straight up over your proposal, even if I didn't get a season of Greinke with the draft picks.

Like I said, if I'm the Royals I think about Lucroy, Odorizzi, and a pair of high ceiling guys in the low minors.

[colbyjack]

Somewhere Jim Callis is blushing...http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

 

Seriously though, that's some major BA love. I love the publication, I have been a subscriber since 1998 and they're the best of what they do. However, much of what Callis offers (like Rogers moving to the bullpen) is his opinion. Does he have a more informed opinion? Absolutely, but it still remains an opinion.

 

As for their list compilation, yes, they talk to a lot of scouts for the scouting information, but the scouts don't compile the lists, the BA writers do based on the information they have compiled. Even if the scouts did compile the lists, it's important to remember that the lists are subjective. The lists don't dictate who GMs are trading for or even how teams view their own prospects, even if I'm sure each one of them has a BA prospect handbook on their desk.

 

That said, I agree with your overall premise the package suggested isn't going to get Greinke. Lawrie and/or Odorizzi need to be included, or you have to find a way to acquire him in a 3-way with Fielder going to a team in need of a big bat willing to deal some prospects. The tough thing about that is, how many teams would want Fielder more than Greinke for themselves?

 

As for the Brewers prospects, Mark Rogers may not be in the top 100 on BA's top 100 list, but the dude throws 93-97 consistently and touched 101 just a few weeks ago. He throws 4 pitches, and while he needs to work on his command, his upside is about as high as they come. If he's not in the top 100, it's not because of his scouting profile, it's because of his injury history, which certainly is a huge issue to consider if a team is going to consider trading for him.

 

Rivas is a fringe prospect? I'm not sure about that. He may not profile as a top of the rotation starter, but here's another guy that has thrown pretty well with a polished changeup. Stats may not support this guy, but he still profiles as a 3-5 starter. 3-5 starters are still in demand at the MLB level. Fringe prospects are guys like Eric Farris whose value is questioned as to whether or not he can start or even be a decent 25th man on a roster.

 

As for the Brewerfan.net staff and the Power 50, we may not be talking to the number of scouts that BA is, but we follow every game, and talk to a lot of the people that watch these players on an every day basis. I would like to think that we, and many of the people that follow the minor league forum on an everyday basis, are in a better position to speak of the Brewers' minor leaguers than Tom Haudricourt, who writes the reports for, yup, Baseball America.

 

And since you're a Brewers fan and obviously a fan of prospects and the like, I'm surprised it's taken this long for you to find us.

[logan82]

colbyjack wrote

As for the Brewerfan.net staff and the Power 50, we may not be talking to the number of scouts that BA is, but we follow every game, and talk to a lot of the people that watch these players on an every day basis. I would like to think that we, and many of the people that follow the minor league forum on an everyday basis, are in a better position to speak of the Brewers' minor leaguers than Tom Haudricourt, who writes the reports for, yup, Baseball America.

I have to be honest that I question Baseball America quite a bit because of this fact.

[ramssuperbowl99]

Somewhere Jim Callis is blushing...http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

 

Seriously though, that's some major BA love. I love the publication, I have been a subscriber since 1998 and they're the best of what they do. However, much of what Callis offers (like Rogers moving to the bullpen) is his opinion. Does he have a more informed opinion? Absolutely, but it still remains an opinion.

 

As for their list compilation, yes, they talk to a lot of scouts for the scouting information, but the scouts don't compile the lists, the BA writers do based on the information they have compiled. Even if the scouts did compile the lists, it's important to remember that the lists are subjective. The lists don't dictate who GMs are trading for or even how teams view their own prospects, even if I'm sure each one of them has a BA prospect handbook on their desk.

 

That said, I agree with your overall premise the package suggested isn't going to get Greinke. Lawrie and/or Odorizzi need to be included, or you have to find a way to acquire him in a 3-way with Fielder going to a team in need of a big bat willing to deal some prospects. The tough thing about that is, how many teams would want Fielder more than Greinke for themselves?

 

As for the Brewers prospects, Mark Rogers may not be in the top 100 on BA's top 100 list, but the dude throws 93-97 consistently and touched 101 just a few weeks ago. He throws 4 pitches, and while he needs to work on his command, his upside is about as high as they come. If he's not in the top 100, it's not because of his scouting profile, it's because of his injury history, which certainly is a huge issue to consider if a team is going to consider trading for him.

 

Rivas is a fringe prospect? I'm not sure about that. He may not profile as a top of the rotation starter, but here's another guy that has thrown pretty well with a polished changeup. Stats may not support this guy, but he still profiles as a 3-5 starter. 3-5 starters are still in demand at the MLB level. Fringe prospects are guys like Eric Farris whose value is questioned as to whether or not he can start or even be a decent 25th man on a roster.

 

As for the Brewerfan.net staff and the Power 50, we may not be talking to the number of scouts that BA is, but we follow every game, and talk to a lot of the people that watch these players on an every day basis. I would like to think that we, and many of the people that follow the minor league forum on an everyday basis, are in a better position to speak of the Brewers' minor leaguers than Tom Haudricourt, who writes the reports for, yup, Baseball America.

 

And since you're a Brewers fan and obviously a fan of prospects and the like, I'm surprised it's taken this long for you to find us.

By the way, just to make this clear, I want to say I have nothing but respect for this site. It's among the best at what it does, and I check things like the Link Report, audio feeds, and first person reports on a daily basis during the season. It's really incredible that you guys can put this together, and I don't mean to bash anything you do.

I agree with your sentiment on Rogers - I think that he can come up in June and have success at the MLB level as a starter. I also think he can be a solid #3 starter for 6 years - there is indeed a great deal of value in that. You also hit the nail on the head with him, his command needs to develop significantly and he is still a huge injury risk. I'm lower on Rivas simply because his fastball doesn't miss bats like Rogers does, but I think he can be a good middle reliever and spot starter at the MLB level. He's done well at AA as a 24 year old, and maybe I'm just low on the guy, but I'd like to see a knockout secondary pitch or more action on his fastball before I see him as a mid-to-back rotation guy. My use of "fringe prospect" was probably harsh, however.

The only reason I use BA extensively right now is because they talk to more executives. You guys probably do know more about the Brewers Top 50 prospects than Tom Hadricourt, but I doubt Dayton Moore knows much more than any of the BA staff. And I'm not saying GM's just go by that either - we certainly have more than enough evidence for that with the Brett Wallace - Anthony Gose swap this summer. I'm just using BA's rankings as a general guideline, and it's pretty clear that the consensus from that says that we have Lawrie, Odorizzi, and a drop of in terms of trade value for prospects.

We do, however, know Greinke's value. He's somewhere between the top 5 and 8 pitchers in baseball, making way less than he should for 2 years. There is gigantic value in that, and we can extrapolate that it's 2 very valuable prospects and 2 high ceiling guys based on what other teams have gotten for their aces. I'd figure Lucroy, Odorizzi, and 2 low level guys would be enough to really get the Royals interested.

[logan82]

I'd figure Lucroy, Odorizzi, and 2 low level guys would be enough to really get the Royals interested.

 

I might do that deal if we were a mid 80's fringe playoff team for the next 2 years. I don't' think we are though. I think we need to hold onto guys like Odorizzi and acquire more long term solutions.

[ramssuperbowl99]

I'd figure Lucroy, Odorizzi, and 2 low level guys would be enough to really get the Royals interested.

 

I might do that deal if we were a mid 80's fringe playoff team for the next 2 years. I don't' think we are though. I think we need to hold onto guys like Odorizzi and acquire more long term solutions.

I completely agree. I'm not trading anyone on the farm when we can stockpile talent for a legitimate playoff run in a few years. But that's what it would take to peak the Royals' interest. No point in suggesting trades if the opposing team wouldn't do it.