Zack Greinke [Latest: Deal for Odorizzi/Cain/Escobar/Jeffress in place? reply 464]

[paul253]

I can already hear the moans from people thinking, "there's no way we can get Greinke", but just hear me out. KC appears to be going nowhere again this year. I am sure they don't want to trade Greinke, but they'd be wise to trade him before he gets too close to free agency. The Brewers have a lot of prospects, especially hitting prospects, at the upper levels of system, but they actually have some decent pitching prospects too now. It would all depend on signing Greinke to a contract extension. I'd offer him $15 million a year over 5 years. He's young, and a Greinke/Gallardo duo would be one of the best young 1-2s in all of baseball. So here's my offer

 

Brewers get:

Zach Greinke

 

Royals get:

Manny Parra: Still relatively young with some upside. Having a good year. Could fill Greinke's rotation spot immediately and wouldn't cost KC an arm and a leg to re-sign if they wanted to.

Mat Gamel: With McGehee at third, and Taylor Green not far behind, he appears destined to move positions anyway, or be on his way out. KC could move him to first or the outfield, or let him DH

Cody Scarpetta: Struggling a bit this year but once he gets his control back he'll be fine. Has a lot of upside

Angel Salome: Let's face it, we have a catcher to spare.

Josh Butler: He's essentially a throw in. While I think he could have some MLB impact, I can't see him as anything more than a 4th or 5th starter. However, he's a young arm that could ready for the majors by the end of the year.

 

It seems like a ton to give up, and it is. But you would be acquiring one the best pitchers in all of baseball. Again, this is dependent on Greinke signing an extension with Milwaukee, at least 4 years. I don't know how KC's farm system is, but adding guys like Gamel, Salome, and Scarpetta would certainly help. However, Milwaukee's most of Milwaukee's top prospects (Arnett, Rivas, Cain, Lawrie, Braddock, Green, Schafer, Lucroy, etc.) are still here. What do people think? Would KC do it for that package of players (I realize Butler and Gamel are hurt and Salome is out, but I was thinking about this as more of an off season trade then a right now trade)?

[trwi7]

I just don't see how that offer comes close.

[paul253]

So what if you substitute Eric Arnett for Josh Butler? Or Zach Braddock? Gamel/Salome/Scarpetta/Braddock/Parra is nothing to laugh at. When the Brewers traded for Sabathia a few years ago, what they gave up wasn't even comparable to this package, though admittedly they only got Sabathia for half a season instead of 2 seasons. We're talking about 4 guys who could presumably go right onto the major league roster, plus another high ceiling pitching prospect.

[Baldkin]

1/26/09: Avoided arbitration by signing 4 year, $38M contract.

So, he's signed through 2012 at 9.5M a year give or take, I really don't see him tacking on another 3 years, when he'd make up the 10M difference he'd get over the next two years with whatever deal he signs in 2013 at 25M a year.

 

The starting point of the deal would be what Lee got the Indians:

Triple-A right-hander Carlos Carrasco, Class A righty Jason Knapp, catcher Lou Marson -- the likely heir apparent to Victor Martinez -- and shortstop Jason Donald were sent to Cleveland.

Now, if you throw out the contract extension... who knows.

[Invader3K]

It's hard to see KC parting with their most popular player who is signed relatively cheaply, but I think your offer would be a good starting point. It's better than that ridiculous rumor Bleacher Report ran with this past October.

[paul253]

So, he's signed through 2012 at 9.5M a year give or take, I really don't

see him tacking on another 3 years,

 

Yeah I phrased it incorrectly. I knew he was signed through 2012. I meant 4 years starting from after this year, so it would be an extension of 2 more years. I'd bet if the Brewers managed to get him after this year, and offered him a 2 year, $50 million extension, he'd take it. It wouldn't be that much of a risk for Milwaukee because it's not some absurd $25 million a year for 7 or 8 years deal like one Fielder will be looking for. Greinke would receive a huge raise after 2012, comparable to what most of the best pitchers are making. He'd still be young enough after the deal expires to sign another big contract.

 

It's hard to see KC parting with their most popular player who is signed

relatively cheaply

 

I think KC would be smart to move him. They are going nowhere fast, and they need to start over. Trading your best pitcher would be tough, but bringing in 3 major league ready players plus another pitcher and a low level prospect could immediately pay dividends for them. The Brewers have shown how good young hitters can turn an organization around, and KC has some pitching prospects that Milwaukee never had when they were trying to improve.

 

I think Milwaukee has enough talent in the minors to absorb the loss of so many prospects. And I don't think that the salary, even you extend him at 2 years $50 million, would be much of a problem.

[endaround]

I see no way this would happen without including Escobar or Lawrie and most likely both of them.

[paul253]

Why do you say that? Offensively, both Salome and Gamel have much, much more offensive potential than Escobar does. He is a defensive shortstop, albeit a very good one, who is still learning to hit. As far as Lawrie goes, I'm sure there is some package that could entice KC that wouldn't involve Lawrie.

[PrinceFielderx1]

 

Trade -

Manny Parra

Bret Lawrie

Angel Salome

Mat Gamel

 

For-

Zach Greinke/Extension

 

The Brewers should re-sign Rickie Weeks. Making Lawrie expendable. Every one of these players are blocked right now and will be blocked in the near future.

[endaround]

Greinke is arguably the best pitcher in MLB signed to a very good contract. You're not getting him for a catcher many think won't be able to hack it defensively, a bullpen guy in his 3rd year, a 3B who has been injured and may have to move to 1B and a top prospect. 3 top prospects would be what the Royals would demand. Something like Escobar, Lawrie and Lucroy. You might change one of those for 2 decent prospects but not 2 of them

[PrinceFielderx1]

Greinke is arguably the best pitcher in MLB signed to a very good contract. You not getting him for a catcher many think won't be able to hack it defensively, a bullpen guy in his 3rd year, a 3B who has been injured and may have to move to 1B and a top prospect. 3 top prospects would be what the Royals would demand. Something like Escobar, Lawrie and Lucroy. You might change one of those for 2 decent prospects but not 2 of them

I thought we were talking mid-season? Things could change. Lawrie, Gamel and Salome could get it going by then, and maybe Parra would be doing great in the bullpen. That could change things. Just saying...

[endaround]

Gamel and Salome would actually need to play.

[JohnBriggs12]

Why do you say that? Offensively, both Salome and Gamel have much, much more offensive potential than Escobar does. He is a defensive shortstop, albeit a very good one, who is still learning to hit. As far as Lawrie goes, I'm sure there is some package that could entice KC that wouldn't involve Lawrie.

Escobar had more minor league hits than any of Weeks, Fielder, Braun, Hart, or Hardy. He knows how to hit. Once Macha comes to his senses and bats him 2nd where he'll get much better pitches to hit, you'll see it.

 

I agree with endaround, Grienke will not come cheaply. Besides I don't think KC has any interest in trading him at this point. Sure they are not going anywhere this year but I doubt they are ready to give up on both 2011 and 2012 and that's what they'd be doing by trading Grienke.

[nate82]

Escobar had more minor league hits than any of Weeks, Fielder, Braun, Hart, or Hardy. He knows how to hit. Once Macha comes to his senses and bats him 2nd where he'll get much better pitches to hit, you'll see it.

Escobar is more patient than Gomez is at the plate but that isn't much of an improvement. I wouldn't want to see either of Gomez or Escobar at the #2 spot but if I had to choose between those two options I guess I would go with Escobar at the #2 spot with Gomez batting 7th and Zaun batting 8th.

 

I do not see the Royals trading Greinke at all unless they feel like they will get a better return now than compared to 2011 or 2012 which I don't see happening. If anything the Royals will probably start thinking about trading Greinke around the end of 2011 if they are not able to resign him that is.

[TheCrew07]

I think we should quit trying to build trade proposals around big name players because they cost too much to acquire. Instead we should focus on trying to acquire MiLB pitching or young MLB pitching on the rise. The idea should be to acquire Greinke before he's Greinke, not pay a premium both in prospects and dollars to acquire and keep him around once he's established as a CY type pitcher..

[Invader3K]

I think we should quit trying to build trade proposals around big name players because they cost too much to acquire. Instead we should focus on trying to acquire MiLB pitching or young MLB pitching on the rise. The idea should be to acquire Greinke before he's Greinke, not pay a premium both in prospects and dollars to acquire and keep him around once he's established as a CY type pitcher..

I think that's probably the more realistic way to go. The fact is that it's still a business, and while we may think it would be appealing to get Greinke while giving up a ton of prospects...chances are KC's management would not see it that way, for better or worse. Trading Greinke now would be like if the Brewers had traded Braun after last season. You just don't give up a superstar like that when he's under such a team friendly deal.

[paul253]

Trading Greinke now would be like if the Brewers had traded Braun after

last season. You just don't give up a superstar like that when he's

under such a team friendly deal.

 

I don't think that's true. Milwaukee after last season had a much better chance of winning soon than KC does now. I would liken this more to the Brewers trading Richie Sexson a few years ago. While he was far and away their best player, they just didn't have the talent around him to win. They needed to trade him to obtain some of that talent. What they did was upgrade a lot of positions in one trade while downgrading one. I think that's something KC would need to consider. Plus, even though he's still pretty affordable, after this season, when I am thinking the trade should happen, he only has two years left on his contract. There was a lot of talk on this board this past off season about trading Prince Fielder while he had two years left because he'd bring more in return with two years left on his contract as opposed to one. Teams aren't going to give up the farm for one year of a superstar.

 

I think KC is in the same boat with Greinke as we are with Fielder. When free agency hits, he's gone. Whoever his agent is is going to have an asking price only a few teams can afford, so KC can either trade him or let him walk with hopes of receiving a first round pick and another pick in return. KC is just one year behind us as Greinke has two years left whereas Prince only has one.

[thebruce44]

Trading Greinke now would be like if the Brewers had traded Braun after last season. You just don't give up a superstar like that when he's under such a team friendly deal.

 

I don't think that's true. Milwaukee after last season had a much better chance of winning soon than KC does now. I would liken this more to the Brewers trading Richie Sexson a few years ago. While he was far and away their best player, they just didn't have the talent around him to win. They needed to trade him to obtain some of that talent.

Those are completely different scenarios. Milwaukee had Prince tearing through the minors and Sexton was going to be a FA after 1 more year. Greinke isn't blocking anyone and has a team friendly contract for 2.5 more years.

 

[TheCrew07]

If we won't be able to afford Fielder then why would we be able to afford Greinke once his contract is up? We should further thin out the farm system to acquire Greinke, who then is just going to end up walking in FA anyway? I'm all for acquiring impact talent with longevity, but Greinke would be a glorified rental player.

 

If I'm going to acquire a player I want 3+ years of him, and I'm not into paying market value for those wins. I want to sign Braun/Yo type contracts with players or no contract at all. We can plug some positional holes through FA, I don't have a problem with that, but no way do I want to pay market value for pitching. If we want to acquire impact talent the most effective way to do that is to trade an established MLB player and get multiple prospects back, if you're the Brewers you are much better off being sellers than you are being buyers, especially since we've bought and depleted the farm system every year since 2007.

[Kelbysdaddy]

if kc is looking to deal anyone its alex gordon. they rushed him to the majors and between that and some injuries its catching up to them. it'd a decient idea to get him and throw him at 1b in triple a like the royals are doing so we'd have someone to back up prince WHEN he gets traded. gordon can hit and his sub-par defense wont be as big a factor at first.

EDIT: i looked into his defensive stats and they were pretty damn decient. MELVIN- GET ON THE PHONE

[Invader3K]

Gordon would not be a bad option at all to have waiting in the wings. He's shown flashes in the past of being a very solid player.

[NievesNoNO]

I have my doubts whether Greinke gets made available. He's still under control for a couple more seasons and I could see the Royals shelling out for him before he hits free agency. They supposedly have a fairly decent group of talent at the low minor level; I'm sure it would be nice for them to keep one to the best pitcher in baseball when/if they can turn the corner a few years down the road. They also have Meche and Guillen coming off the books soon so that would free up some for money provided they don't throw it at some other free agents.

 

Now, if I'm the Brewers I would probably throw any number of thier prospects previously mentioned at the Royals to get him. I think it would probably at least take two of LuCroy, Gamel, and Lawrie + Parra + another AA arm. I'm good with Braun, Weeks, Escobar, McGhee and Gomez going foward.

 

My mind just flipped into video game mode: We aquire Greinke for the above mentioned and we deal Prince to Tampa for Hellickson and Jennings.

 

Greinke

Gallardo

Wolf

Hellickson

Narveson

 

Weeks

Escobar

Braun

McGhee

Edmonds/Hart

Green/Counsel

Gomez

Zaun

 

Call me up Mark A. I'll work for cheap!

[fleehaw]

My mind just flipped into video game mode: We aquire Greinke for the above mentioned and we deal Prince to Tampa for Hellickson and Jennings.

 

Sorry to hijack the thread, but do you think the Rays would really part with Hellickson? I could see them possibly parting with him (and not also Jennings) if it was a deadline deal this season for Fielder. But given the Rays spending habits and their stated goal of payroll reduction, I could see either Garza or Shields dealt this offseason to open up a spot for Hellickson.

 

Shields is signed to a team-friendly long term deal whereas I believe Garza is under control for 2 more seasons and I have no idea it's he's open to a long term deal but he's looking at a hefty raise in arbitration.

 

I would be on board with a Fielder along with 1-2 pitching prospects of the Rays choice for either Shields or Garza. I would prefer Shields due to his contract status unless Garza would agree to an extension as part of the deal.

 

I can't see many teams giving up 6 years of an advanced top pitching prospect for 1 to 1.5 years of Fielder. I could see a team dealing a good/very good pitcher with about the same amount of control for Fielder this offseason. Whatever happens with Fielder, I doubt it will be unprecedented.

 

[NievesNoNO]

fleehaw[/b]]

NievesNoNO[/b]]My mind just flipped into video game mode: We aquire Greinke for the above mentioned and we deal Prince to Tampa for Hellickson and Jennings.

 

Sorry to hijack the thread, but do you think the Rays would really part with Hellickson? I could see them possibly parting with him (and not also Jennings) if it was a deadline deal this season for Fielder. But given the Rays spending habits and their stated goal of payroll reduction, I could see either Garza or Shields dealt this offseason to open up a spot for Hellickson.

Yes, I do believe they would consider a deal for Fielder this season for Hellickson, with the consideration that they (Rays) maintain their level of play and are looking for the knockout punch to the Yankees and/or Red Sox this year and maybe next. I don't believe they would include Jennings either, that part was me fantasizing. I believe Pena, Crawford, Burrell, and Soriano are all free agents following this season. That's between 30-40 million right there. They will certaily have a decision coming with Garza in the near future.

[Invader3K]

Yes, with the free agents that will probably be leaving, they could probably afford Fielder next year (and that's assuming they wouldn't turn around and trade him this off-season). At this point, what is Fielder in line to make next season through arbitration? Probably $15 million or so?

 

Of course if the fans continue to not bother showing up at Tropicana despite the team's excellent start, the ownership might just say "nuts to this" and not bother trying to make any big moves this year or next.