Mid-season trades if we're sellers

[monty57]

I know it's too early to think about this, but I read the thread about trading for Oswalt, and I thought I'd throw the other side out there. I'm still upset that we didn't trade away players like Cameron, Hoffman, Looper, Counsell, Kendall, etc last season as we could have received some value, especially from Cameron and Hoffman. If we are in a similar situation this season, we will have a lot of players we could deal to add to our "core" so that we could remain competitive for the future.

 

Of course, everyone is potentially tradeable, but here are the likely players I see from our current MLB team: Fielder, Bush, Davis, Zaun, Edmonds, Hoffman, Hart. Basically, this is a list of the players who will be free agents next year plus Fielder and Hart.

 

Next year's team should return a rotation led by Yo and Wolf, Davis has a team option and Narveson and Parra are under team control. Lucroy, Salome and Kottaras should fill in catcher, so we will return everyone in the field excep potentially 1B (if Fielder's traded) and the OF with the loss of Edmonds, Gerut and possibly Hart (if they don't want to pay $6-7MM for the RH part of a platoon).

 

If we don't pick things up, I could very well see Melvin play the opposite side of what he did with the Sabathia trade, which would be to trade Fielder a month or so prior to the trade deadline to maximize his value. I think a team like Tampa could find this appealing, as he would greatly help them this year, and they'd be able to flip him this offseason. They have extra pitching, so hopefully we could find a match.

 

I could also see Bush having a lot of value this year, as there will be plenty of teams looking to bolster their rotation. Davis could also fall into this category, and his team option could make him more valueable in a trade (of course, Melvin may want him back next year, taking him off the market). Hoffman could bring some talent back if he can find his change-up control and make people forget this horrid start. Zaun would be more of a dump if Lucroy forces his way into the majors, so I wouldn't expect much from trading him. I doubt anyone will give much for Hart, as he won't get a chance here to put up any numbers. If Edmonds stays healthy and productive, someone would give us something for him.

 

Again, it's too early to think like this, but getting shut out 3 out of 4 games versus San Diego depressed me, and I think this is an important year for our future. We either sign Fielder and build around him, or trade him and build from there. Therefore, how we start this season could have a big effect on our future. Since we've gotton off to a cold start, I think it's more likely that we do a drastic, but quick "rebuild" this season. Fielder has been discussed a lot, but I also wanted to throw Bush and Davis in there. Trading them could bring back talent from a team needing pitching, and it could also open up room for some of our young pitchers to pitch in the MLB in "games that don't matter," so we'll know what we have going into next year. That would also hold true with Lucroy and maybe one or two of our young OFs.

 

I guess I'll ask first what it would take for you to be a seller (i.e. would you sell if we were around .500, would we need to be God-awful bad or would you never be a seller). Also, what would be your priorities during this season? Who do you think are likeliest to be traded and what will we target?

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm still upset that we didn't trade away players like Cameron, Hoffman, Looper, Counsell, Kendall, etc last season as we could have received some value, especially from Cameron and Hoffman.

 

Fwiw, Cameron was a Type B free agent, so the Brewers essentially traded him for a late-first round pick by letting him walk in free agency. Type Bs return one sandwich-round pick -- unconditionally, so there was no risk of losing the pick like in the Sabathia situation -- between rounds 1 & 2, for anyone that wasn't aware (not saying you aren't, Monty). It was frustrating to not see anyone moved, but my guess is the potential returns on guys like Counsell/Kendall/Cameron/Looper weren't very nice. Especially in Cameron's case, I doubt we could have gotten anyone of a supplemental round caliber. Joba Chamberlain, Clay Buchholz, Gio Gonzalez, Huston Street, and for a Brewers example, Jake Odorizzi were all supplemental round draft picks. Of course many supplemental round guys don't make it, either, but if the options for return on Cameron were even close to underwhelming, I'd rather the org. play it the way it did & just take the draft pick. Prospects fail too.

 

The one I can't wrap my brain around was not dealing Hoffman, but something tells me Melvin had him in his plans for 2010 at the time.

 

 

what it would take for you to be a seller (i.e. would you sell if we were around .500, would we need to be God-awful bad or would you never be a seller)

 

I would be comfortable selling if the team is around .500, or roughly in the same position they were last season around the trade deadline.

 

 

what would be your priorities during this season?

 

I assume you mean what type of return(s) I/we would be seeking in trade(s)? I would say pitching, pitching, pitching. Cast a wide net, and gather up as many pitching prospects as possible, high ceiling guys & high floor guys alike. I'd also probably look into true centerfield prospects, middle infield, & catching (rookie ball or high-A level on catchers).

 

 

Who do you think are likeliest to be traded and what will we target?

 

I may have not understood the previous question, since I basically answered part two here above. Hart, Bush, Gerut, even Suppan (for a team decimated by injuries) are all guys I could see getting moved. I really don't think Melvin will deal Fielder this season. Zaun, Edmonds, Counsell, Inglett, Davis, Vargas, Hawkins, & Hoffman would probably be candidates as well, but since they were all signed as free agents, iirc they'd have to clear waivers after the trading deadline in order to be moved.

EDIT: See TheCrew07's post...

[TheCrew07]

what would be your priorities during this season?

 

I assume you mean what type of return(s) I/we would be seeking in trade(s)? I would say pitching, pitching, pitching. Cast a wide net, and gather up as many pitching prospects as possible, high ceiling guys & low floor guys alike. I'd also probably look into true centerfield prospects, middle infield, & catching (rookie ball or high-A level on catchers).

Did you mean "high floor'"?

[logan82]

We have Hawkins on a 2 year deal.

 

I think we should have been sellers last year and I think we will be in a position to be sellers this year. Lots of pitching would be nice but I really don't think we are likely to get any decent pitching in return on a trade. We are pretty thin at SS in the minors. 2B isn't really all that good either unless Lawrie can stick there which is why an extension for Weeks would be great. We have a lot of bats that could fill 3B, the corner outfield spots and 1B. Another good bat wouldn't hurt though.

[TooLiveBrew]

what would be your priorities during this season?

 

I assume you mean what type of return(s) I/we would be seeking in trade(s)? I would say pitching, pitching, pitching. Cast a wide net, and gather up as many pitching prospects as possible, high ceiling guys & low floor guys alike. I'd also probably look into true centerfield prospects, middle infield, & catching (rookie ball or high-A level on catchers).

Did you mean "high floor'"?

Hah. Yes, of course. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

[NievesNoNO]

If we're .500 at the deadline I hope we're sellers. I guess it really depends on the circumstances. If they're .500 but kind of trending upward and the wildcard is only a couple games away I'd find it hard to sell. If they're .500 and 5-6 games back and the pitching staff is where it is now it's time to sell. I'd deal anyone but Braun, Gallardo, Gomez and Escobar.

 

I'd put a standing offer out to Tampa right now of Fielder for Hellickson and Jennings and hope to get Hellickson out of them by the deadline. McGhee and Weeks would probably have some solid value as well at the deadline. If Weeks stays healthy he could bring back something nice. Coffey might be able to net something with potential too.

 

It's a little early to completely bail out just yet, but I suppose the way they've played so far there's not much exciting to discuss that's actually happening on the field.

 

 

[Menace II Sobriety]

TooLiveBrew

 

Fwiw, Cameron was a Type B free agent, so the Brewers essentially traded him for a late-first round pick by letting him walk in free agency. Type Bs return one sandwich-round pick -- unconditionally, so there was no risk of losing the pick like in the Sabathia situation -- between rounds 1 & 2, for anyone that wasn't aware (not saying you aren't, Monty). It was frustrating to not see anyone moved, but my guess is the potential returns on guys like Counsell/Kendall/Cameron/Looper weren't very nice. Especially in Cameron's case, I doubt we could have gotten anyone of a supplemental round caliber. Joba Chamberlain, Clay Buchholz, Gio Gonzalez, Huston Street, and for a Brewers example, Jake Odorizzi were all supplemental round draft picks. Of course many supplemental round guys don't make it, either, but if the options for return on Cameron were even close to underwhelming, I'd rather the org. play it the way it did & just take the draft pick. Prospects fail too.

Except this isn't what happened the Brewers do not get a supplemental pick for Cameron because the didn't offer him arbitration. Cameron walked with no compensation whatsoever. Also you failed to note that Chamberlain and Buchholz slipped to the supplemental round due to contract demands.

 

http://5tooltalk.com/draftorder.html

 

I think that at this point in the teams rebuilding process and in order to stay loyal to fans they will not be selling off proven major leaguers for A and A+ ball mid-tier prospects. It would have a negative return at the gate for the end of the season ticket sales and pre-sales going into the next season.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm all for selling if just to free up spots to look at youngsters in the 2nd half. The old guys aren't going to bring much back unless they really pick it up other than some partial season salary relief which may come in handy as selling tickets might slow to a trickle in August and September.

 

The 3 guys that could bring back some actual value are the arby guys, Bush, Hart, and Weeks and dealing them gives them added flexibility in the offseason.

[prophet]

I know we all want to see some good pitching come in here via trade, and I'm in that boat too. But, lets not forget, our hitting has been pretty poor too so far this year. No matter how good your pitching is, you can't win with zero runs scored. So, whether we lose 2 to 0 or 10 to 0, it really doesn't matter. This team has holes everywhere right now. It's not a quick fix, by bringing in some pitching.

[paul253]

I don't expect much in return for trading anyone we have now, except Fielder of course. I think guys like Hoffman, Hart, Edmonds, Vargas, and maybe even Zaun if he keeps his numbers somewhat decent would all be good candidates to get traded. I think Melvin should focus on getting young hard throwing pitchers from the lower levels, maybe guys that are struggling a bit. I'm thinking someone comparable to Evan Frederickson. Or a low level athletic type like Brent Brewer. Not saying that I want guys who aren't doing well, just guys that do have some upside if they can put it together. The last thing the organization needs is more soft tossers.

[monty57]

I know we all want to see some good pitching come in here via trade, and I'm in that boat too. But, lets not forget, our hitting has been pretty poor too so far this year. No matter how good your pitching is, you can't win with zero runs scored. So, whether we lose 2 to 0 or 10 to 0, it really doesn't matter. This team has holes everywhere right now. It's not a quick fix, by bringing in some pitching.

That's kind of my mindset when I started this thread. To me, a start like we're having makes it much more likely that we sell this season. As Menace II Society mentioned, we didn't offer anyone arby, so we didn't even get draft picks for Cameron, Lopez or anyone, so to me it's kind of like getting kicked twice... once when we didn't trade anyone last year and again when we watched everyone go without getting any extra picks. My guess is that this will happen again with players like Hoffman and Hart if they aren't dealt this season.

 

We will have a lot of talent returning next year, so it would be nice to fill in some of the holes (pitching and possibly 1B/RF) by trading away players who will not be part of our future. Some holes will be filled by players we receive in the trades, and some holes will be filled by giving minor leaguers a chance in the pros.

 

 

[nate82]

We will have a lot of talent returning next year, so it would be nice to fill in some of the holes (pitching and possibly 1B/RF) by trading away players who will not be part of our future. Some holes will be filled by players we receive in the trades, and some holes will be filled by giving minor leaguers a chance in the pros.

 

The Brewers do not need to trade for a hole at RF. There are enough prospects in the minors that can fill that hole that Hart would leave in RF just to name a few that would fit in RF Lawrie, Gamel, Cain, and Gindl. The OF is the least of the worries for the Brewers the Brewers actually have a glut of talent for the OF.

 

I also don't see the Brewers getting much in the way of a hard tosser with trading Edmonds, Zaun, or Counsell. At best your return is going to be someone like McClung but probably more along the lines of Capellan or Kolb are what you are looking at for a return for any of those three. I don't see much if any demand for those three.

 

If Hoffman turns it around maybe you could trade him for a good bullpen guy who throws hard but I think that is all you could expect for a return for Hoffman. If Hart really turns it on you could see a #4 or a #5 type pitcher in return probably not someone who throws really hard though.

[logan82]

Why would we trade Weeks? We don't have a reasonable replacement for him right now.

[monty57]

Nate, I probably wasn't overly clear in the last part of the statement when I said "Some holes will be filled by players we receive in the trades, and some holes will be filled by giving minor leaguers a chance in the pros."

 

What I meant was that players like Gamel, Braddock, Cain, Axford, Heether, etc won't get a chance to play for the Brewers this year unless we trade some players who are on the roster this year, but aren't likely to be part of the future. For example, if we trade Hart, we can bring up one of our young RFs (or move Gamel there) to give them some MLB experience and see what we have. That is also very true for some of the young starting pitchers. If we trade Bush/Davis we can see if some of the guys who are performing well in the minors can come up and get MLB hitters out.

 

I wouldn't guess that we'd get a lot of MLB-ready talent back in any trade other than Fielder, and that's fine. If we could get any return for the likes of Counsell, Zaun or Vargas, I'd be thrilled. Rather, the move would be to open a spot to get Heether (if Counsell traded), Lucroy (Zaun) or Axford/Braddock (Vargas) some MLB reps. There's a chance that Bush and Davis could bring back some decent talent, as I'm sure some playoff hopeful team would like to get help in the rotation.

 

Logan, I agree there's little chance we'd trade Weeks... I'm on the opposite side of that trade, as I'm for extending him. Of course, if someone came in with an unbelievable deal, Melvin would have to entertain the thought, but that probably won't happen.

[tigerbrew]

Of course, everyone is potentially tradeable, but here are the likely players I see from our current MLB team: Fielder, Bush, Davis, Zaun, Edmonds, Hoffman, Hart. Basically, this is a list of the players who will be free agents next year plus Fielder and Hart.

If we're sellers, I'm definitely shopping Fielder, Davis, Zaun, Edmonds, Hoffman, Hart and Hawkins. But I'd like to keep Bush and would offer him a reasonable extension, I prefer to have Bush than Davis in next year's rotation.

 

I'm against giving Fielder a $125M+ extension, hopefully we can get a good trade offer for Prince from a contender. If not, try trading Prince again in the offseason. I think we can get a decent offer for Edmonds from a contender,

[NievesNoNO]

logan3825[/b]]Why would we trade Weeks? We don't have a reasonable replacement for him right now.

He's one of the few players that might be able to bring back a top level arm. I certainly wouldn't trade him just to trade, but if we're discussing trying to improve our pitching he's probably second on the list next to Fielder.

 

 

[Invader3K]

Lawrie could possibly be ready to play 2B next season. Something to keep in mind regarding Weeks.

[paul253]

Lawrie could possibly be ready to play 2B next season.
Something to keep in mind regarding Weeks.

I don't see the need to rush him. Although he's in AA now, he isn't exactly putting up all star caliber numbers. He needs at the very least a full season in AA, and might possibly need to repeat it. Otherwise I think he'd definitely need a year in Nashville. Personally I'd rather extend Weeks, trade Fielder and Hart and move Lawrie to either right field or first base (with Mat Gamel taking the other spot).

[Invader3K]

I don't see the need to rush him. Although he's in AA now, he isn't exactly putting up all star caliber numbers. He needs at the very least a full season in AA, and might possibly need to repeat it. Otherwise I think he'd definitely need a year in Nashville. Personally I'd rather extend Weeks, trade Fielder and Hart and move Lawrie to either right field or first base (with Mat Gamel taking the other spot).

I'd be fine with those options too. Then again if Weeks doesn't turn things around, he might not be worth an extension. He's been very frustrating in terms of his career with the Brewers.

[paul253]

I'd like to see what Weeks can do batting somewhere other than lead off. All these years and we still haven't had a better option. I'd be interested to see what he could do hitting second or hitting sixth.

[bklynbrewcrew]

paul253]I'd like to see what Weeks can do batting somewhere other than lead off. All these years and we still haven't had a better option. I'd be interested to see what he could do hitting second or hitting sixth.

 

Why would anyone want to move Weeks from the leadoff spot. Rickie has the perfect skill set as a lead off hitter. He takes lots of pitches, works the count and has a high OBP as well as great speed. Rickie Weeks needs to remain in the leadoff spot for this team for years to come.

[BrewCrewForever]

If we are sellers I say move Fielder, Hoffman, Davis, Zaun, Edmonds and anyone else on a 1 year deal I can;t think of right now. Of course Prince will bring the best and most important return of players but the others should net us something. Then call up the kids to play Gamel, Lucroy, Braddock and a few others.

[logan82]

Lawrie could possibly be ready to play 2B next season. Something to keep in mind regarding Weeks.

I am not so sure about that. It is questionable whether Lawrie can or has the desire to stick at 2B. My guess is Lawrie might be ready part way through midseason next year at the earliest but more likely 2012 and maybe not at 2B.

He's one of the few players that might be able to bring back a top level

arm. I certainly wouldn't trade him just to trade, but if we're

discussing trying to improve our pitching he's probably second on the

list next to Fielder.

The only reason to entertain trading Fielder is because we have virtually zero chance of resigning him after next year. We really don't have a ready replacement for either but it is much easier to find a bat to plug in at 1B than it is at 2B. Like I mentioned above, Lawrie is our next 2B in the system and he might end up at another position. After Lawrie things are pretty thin.

[TooLiveBrew]

Except this isn't what happened the Brewers do not get a supplemental pick for Cameron because the didn't offer him arbitration. Cameron walked with no compensation whatsoever. Also you failed to note that Chamberlain and Buchholz slipped to the supplemental round due to contract demands.

Yesterday was not my day on the Brewerfans. Somebody keep me away from a keyboard. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

 

Chamberlain & Buchholz I just didn't know about (just saw them as recognizable examples -- plus the Brewers haven't let signability get in the way too much in recent years)... but the Cam thing... sheesh.

[TheCrew07]

Our rental also walked without compensation but then again many of us argued that probably be the case from the get go. Man I hated/still despise that Lopez trade, we were going nowhere.