The trade value of Casey McGehee ?

[HiAndTight]

The hole in his swing is up and in. I'd like to think that Sveum could work with him and close it. The Twins are short of pitching. They don't even have a dominant starter now. They're not going to move one for Gamel or McGehee. People who think that players can't improve past a certain age have been predicting a moderate decline for McGehee, but you see it as precipitous. I think there's a chance Hart does ok. I don't see him in Milwaukee for very long though.

Right, but it was presented as though he had a lot of holes in his swing. I think most players have areas they are susceptible. Even Griffey Jr could always be gotten with hard stuff up an in.

 

As for what the Twins will or won't do, nobody said they'd give up a "dominant" starter for Gamel, and since you say they don't even have one, I'm not sure how they could. I did suggest maybe they would for Gamel, Hart, CV AND Cash to off-set the salary of Hart that it's possible they'd trade us a AAA catcher(Mauer anyone) who's playing very poorly right now, a AAA pitcher who has an ERA of 8 right now, AND a very good young pitcher.

 

I don't know that they WOULD make that trade, but I do think it's ridiculous to dismiss it on it's face and answer for them that they absolutely wouldn't.

[endaround]

And the Brewers need another catcher why?

[TooLiveBrew]

Put my response to this post from HiAndTight in this thread --

 

We're not even close to being there, and again, when you factor in that he was playing hurt last year at 3rd base limiting his range severely...McGehee could barely move at times last year.

 

I think there have been several plays this season, with his reportedly 100% healthy knees, where he's shown very little moblility.

 

 

Then when you factor in his minor league scouting reports that are fairly unanimous in their praise for his defensive abilities, and I definitely think we're rushing to said conclusion.

 

You're the first person I've seen cite strong fielding scouting reports from the minors. Everything else I've seen has mentioned mediocre or solid scouting reports. Can you share any links, or anything along those lines?

 

 

As for his FP%, his Minor League FP% in almost 600 games was about .960 as opposed to the .940 it is this year. .960 isn't great, but it's certainly respectable.

 

I'm definitely in agreement that we're dealing with small samples here. However, the phrase 'he makes all the plays he gets to', while undeniably harmless hyperbole, would imply that his rate of converting BIP into outs is strong. To this point, it hasn't been.

 

Getting back to the small sample note, I agree that, in terms of data, we need more time with regards to Casey. However, imho, the eye test & the data match pretty well thus far. I think the ceiling for McGehee the 3B on defense is below average to average (while I view someone like Gamel's as average to well above). I would love to see the Brewers keep McGehee, but at 1B.

[pete]

Getting back to the small sample note, I agree that, in terms of data, we need more time with regards to Casey. However, imho, the eye test & the data match pretty well thus far. I think the ceiling for McGehee the 3B on defense is below average to average (while I view someone like Gamel's as average to well above).

What data? UZR is pretty much of a morphing crapshoot. For whatever reason you hear people talk about needing 3 years worth of data, but it used to be you needed a career's worth of data and it still might not be accurate. My eyes say Casey is above average. That seems to be universal outside of a handful of Gamel fans. Gamel's scouting reports are almost universally grim. You've got Money saying he could be okay and who else? Garth Iorg? I think he has the ability, but to say that today he is above average - I think that's a tough sell.

[TheCrew07]

What data? UZR is pretty much of a morphing crapshoot. For whatever reason you hear people talk about needing 3 years worth of data, but it used to be you needed a career's worth of data and it still might not be accurate. My eyes say Casey is above average. That seems to be universal outside of a handful of Gamel fans. Gamel's scouting reports are almost universally grim. You've got Money saying he could be okay and who else? Garth Iorg? I think he has the ability, but to say that today he is above average - I think that's a tough sell.

No I would say that's only a universal opinion of those that have fallen in love with McGehee's production and aren't being objective. He's made some nice plays in the past 2 weeks, but he has had his stretches where's been abysmal in the field as well. Throughout his minor league career Total Zone had him as a scratch defender, he was as average as average gets in 993 chances (Minor League Splits, no linkage is available from that site). I've watched all the same games and I see him as an average defender with below average range. Gamel has above average range, a similar glove to McGehee, but unfortunately he's not able to accurately throw across the diamond. Most of Escobar's errors are of the throwing variety as well, it is it a tough sell to believe he could be an above average defender? This reminds me quite a bit of the Braun debate from last season... even the people who made excuses for Braun in that past aren't going down that road anymore, he's clearly a bad outfielder, even to the eye test. Casey is in his peak as a player and he's average at best, he's not going to get better, and in fact he'll likely slowly decline as his range further erodes with age.

 

Furthermore I feel you're disdain for Gamel is misplaced at best. You've take your frustration regarding the many criticisms of Macha and focused it into a McGehee vs Gamel debate, when that's not the point people have been making for over a year. I don't really want to rehash the whole Gamel PH debate, I think the evidence is pretty clear that it ruined his confidence, he wasn't the same player in AAA as he was before the promotion. It's very clear his MLB experience last season has adversely affected his short career. We get that you don't care about service time, but that doesn't make your opinion on the matter correct. I believe you're clearly biased in that you believe Casey is the superior player in every way. He may certainly end up to be the more productive player in the end but Gamel has the vastly superior tools... he's faster, has better range, a better arm, and I still believe that he has the potential to hit for more power. Your refusal to accept that Gamel was misused once again calls into question your credibility and objectivity. Casey took advantage of his opportunity, he also gets the most out of what he has, but just because he got the first shot and made the most of it doesn't mean he's clearly the superior player.

 

Then again you'll probably argue that it made sense for Lucroy to come up and burn service time playing every 5th day behind Kottaras when the site is debating how wasteful the organization was with his service time, but I guess we'll cross that bridge when we get there.

[HiAndTight]

And the Brewers need another catcher why?

And we WOULDN'T want a top 100 catching prospect why?

 

How about this, he's clearly better than either of our two prospects in LuCroy and Salome, both of whom have defensive question marks.

Kottaras has looked good offensively, but absolutely atrocious when it comes to blocking the ball from what I've seen, and those match with his scouting reports.

 

Salome is currently healthy physically and not playing because of anxiety issues, and has always been a huge boom or bust type player.

 

And Ramos was obviously not the focal point of this trade, that's Gibson, but I welcome any snide remarks with regard to him as well?

[HiAndTight]

I think there have been several plays this season, with his reportedly 100% healthy knees, where he's shown very little moblility.

 

"Very little" it tough to quantify. I'm not suggesting he's got the same potential range or mobility of Gamel, rather from what I've seen with the eye test, he's got enough to be a solid defender at the "hot corner".

 

 

You're the first person I've seen cite strong fielding scouting reports from the minors. Everything else I've seen has mentioned mediocre or solid scouting reports. Can you share any links, or anything along those lines?

I find that a bit surprising. Everything I've read had him as a plus defender. Of course it's difficult to call those up on demand then they entail various reports you've read over a couple year period, but just a quick search shows Sickels very complentary reports on him....

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/3/10/1365164/not-a-rookie-casey-mcgehee

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/207747-casey-mcgehee-a-quad-a-player-succeeds-upon-finding-an-mlb-job

 

The second link certainly isn't a great source, but it's another article alluding to glowing defensive reports from his minor league days.

 

I'm definitely in agreement that we're dealing with small samples here. However, the phrase 'he makes all the plays he gets to', while undeniably harmless hyperbole, would imply that his rate of converting BIP into outs is strong. To this point, it hasn't been.

 

Right, and while I don't think anyone would argue he's had a good start defensively to his big league career, from watching him, he does seem very sure handed. He struggles coming in on balls, and he doesn't have great range to his left, but he's got very good reaction times, very sure handed, a very strong arm and it appears to be very accurate from what I've seen.

 

But I guess when you're talking about about 100 chances this year, a Fld pct of .941 where as league average is .951.

 

You're right, it is hyperbole, but I look at it as him simply saying, "he's sure handed and makes the plays hit to him". The problem is over 100 chances, one play can have a significant impact on that FP%...which is why again sample sizes need to be taken into consideration.

 

 

 

Getting back to the small sample note, I agree that, in terms of data, we need more time with regards to Casey. However, imho, the eye test & the data match pretty well thus far. I think the ceiling for McGehee the 3B on defense is below average to average (while I view someone like Gamel's as average to well above). I would love to see the Brewers keep McGehee, but at 1B.

I guess that goes to show how the "eye" test can differ. To me I think it's largely a matter of it becoming popular opinion. If the majority agree's with a sentiment, it becomes easier for you to see that. I think McGehee ends up as an average defender over there, and possibly slightly above. So we're not that far apart.

 

 

We agree on Gamel though. I love Gamel, and don't understand this argument that he performed so poorly last year. When he was given starts at 3rd base, a very small sampling mind you, but he had an OPS over. 800, and looked very good.

 

Why we're treating him so much differently from previous top prospects is beyond me, but he has a very good stick in my opinion, and is very patient at the plate.

 

With regard to McGehee moving over to 1st, I don't think he'll hit well enough to be anything more than average there. I think the most value he has to the Brewers is to move him now, but that seems unlikely to happen.

 

I just fear that we end up moving Gamel to 1st, or worse yet trading him and keeping McGehee only to see Gamel outperform McGehee in years to come.

[TooLiveBrew]

Thank you for linking that stuff. I really wonder about McGehee's mobility, because he's even still listed as being 195 lbs. on the Miller Park scoreboard. 195 -- hah, yyyeaaah. And I've got a wicked slider.

Well, defensive scouting reports said he had one of the best third-base gloves in baseball, and that he could provide average defense at short or center, plus defense at second, and plus-plus defense everywhere else but catcher.

McGehee looks like he weighs something more like 220-230 now. To the layman (me, in this case), it looks like he bulked up to become more of a power hitter -- which is what held him back both in terms of MiLB production & prospect status. *How* he put the weight on (PEDs/not PEDs) isn't really my main concern here, but just *that* he put it on. I wonder if perhaps 195-lb. Casey McGehee was able to be a plus defender at 2B, and very good elsewhere, but the 225-lb. version isn't.

 

 

I don't think anyone would argue he's had a good start defensively to his big league career, from watching him, he does seem very sure handed. He struggles coming in on balls, and he doesn't have great range to his left, but he's got very good reaction times, very sure handed, a very strong arm and it appears to be very accurate from what I've seen.

 

I agree on the arm, and the reaction time. I also agree on coming in on balls & range to his left as being weaknesses. The main problem I see is that the range to the left & charging balls are basically what set the good 3Bmen apart from the pack. I'm not sure that I'm supremely confident in Gamel charging the ball (as his main problem has been throwing footwork), but I can say I feel confident in his range to the hole.

 

 

With regard to McGehee moving over to 1st, I don't think he'll hit well enough to be anything more than average there. I think the most value he has to the Brewers is to move him now, but that seems unlikely to happen.

 

I just fear that we end up moving Gamel to 1st, or worse yet trading him and keeping McGehee only to see Gamel outperform McGehee in years to come.

 

I think McGehee has the talent to hit well enough to be an asset at 1B. Just for a point of reference, NL 1B had a composite line of .282/.373/.485/.859 last season, and .277/.359/.479/.838 in '08. Part of why I have faith in him there is that I think he'd be a good defender at first (and a nice upgrade over Fielder, to boot).

 

I share your concern that the Brewers will either keep Gamel & move Mat to 1B, or trade Mat away. As long as they keep both Gamel & McGehee, I guess I'll feel alright, even though I obviously think Gamel should be the one to play 3B.

[logan82]

What data? UZR is pretty much of a morphing crapshoot. For whatever reason you hear people talk about needing 3 years worth of data, but it used to be you needed a career's worth of data and it still might not be accurate.

 

You need 3 years data and need to regress it halfway. So if a guy is -10 UZR/150 over 3 years you would assume -5UZR/150 going forward.

 

 

Most of Escobar's errors are of the throwing variety as well, it is it a tough sell to believe he could be an above average defender?

 

This statement is a little confusing. I think he can be a great defender. He isn't now but he has all the tools.

 

 

With regard to McGehee moving over to 1st, I don't think he'll hit well enough to be anything more than average there.

 

Doesn't matter. We are more than likely going to have Lawrie, Gamel and McGehee all in our order at the same time. Just because a guy can or cannot hit like a 1B doesn't matter really. We need to put those guys in the configuration that is likely to get the best defense on the field.

[TooLiveBrew]

It does matter, though, in the sense that if the Brewers trade him, he could be traded from a 3B value standpoint. I agree that it doesn't matter if they keep him... which like I said, I think they should -- but probably only through 2012 or so.

[thebruce44]

The whole sell high thing with regards to McGehee doesn't work for me. Every GM knows the Brewers would be selling high on McGehee. That will be reflected in the return offered.

[Baldkin]

Then the whole premise of selling high is null and void... right?

Maybe selling low is the new selling high?

[804Sox]

Then the whole premise of selling high is null and void... right?

Maybe selling low is the new selling high?

Not even sure what that means . . . anyways, I think his point was that it is impossible to sell high on McGehhe right now because his perceived value is less than his production do to better than expected performance and unspectacular pedigree. Phrased differently, teams have likely been reluctant to give up value equivalent to McGehee's production because there remain questions about whether or not he can sustain this level of production (his defensive limitations hurt too).

[Invader3K]

I think McGehee could have a lot of value to certain teams. 3B is a tougher position to fill than some seem to think. That said, I still feel that if Fielder is inevitably going to be dealt, I would want McGehee to stick around to possibly play 1B.

[chadomac]

I agree, McGehee is still cheap... keep him and Gamel and hopefully one can play 3B and one can play 1B starting next year.

[fleehaw]

I agree that McGehee could have a lot of value to certain teams. The Rays, in particular, are a good fit. Yes, in a vacuum, Fielder would make more sense for them. But, they are cutting costs and Fielder doesn't fit that mantra. Currently, they are a blackhole at 1b & DH, and very left-handed there to boot. A deadline deal similar to the following would be very beneficial to both clubs IMO.

 

McGehee & Stetter for Niemann

 

McGehee slots into one of the positions where the Rays are lacking. McGehee is inexpensive and I believe he & Niemann have the same amount of service in. Stetter is the sweetener considering the Rays LOOGY (Choate) is not having a lot of success. Stetter is also inexpensive and currently one of many lefties on the Brewers roster.

 

A Gallardo/Niemann combo is a legitimate 1-2 punch. I'm not crazy about dealing a pre-arby player that's producing at a high level, but you are getting the same in return at a position of greater need. This would also open up the possibility of sending Fielder to the Rangers for Smoak if the Rangers would do that.

[804Sox]

What about Sonnanstine for McGehee in terms of value and feasibility? From the Rays' perspective, a Hellickson promotion could replace Sonn pretty easily, while the Brewers get a pretty decent pitcher. Gamel could replace McGehee in the Brewers lineup, and neither team would take on too much salary.

 

Unfortunately, Sonnanstine is probably a #3-#4 starter in the NL, not the type of player the Brewers need to anchor the top of the rotation, just reinforcing the notion that keeping McGehee is probably the best move right now.

[trwi7]

How is Sonnanstine any different than what we have? A soft tosser who can't strike anyone out. Been there, done that, no desire to see it anymore.

[Boisebrewer]

How is Sonnanstine any different than what we have? A soft tosser who can't strike anyone out. Been there, done that, no desire to see it anymore.

Yeah, I would not be interested in Sonnanstine for McGehee at all. I'd much rather have Hellickson, especially since McGehee is so cheap for the next few years. I'd also rather not give up on Stetter. I realize that we have a bunch of lefties, but I think we need all the young arms we can hold on to. I'd rather send Hawkins and some cash than give up Mitch.

 

[Polish Falcons]

Hellickson? Is there anything to suggest the Rays would trade Jeremy Hellickson? Isn't he the best pitcher in the minor leagues right now?

[TheCrew07]

Hellickson? Is there anything to suggest the Rays would trade Jeremy Hellickson? Isn't he the best pitcher in the minor leagues right now?

No, technically that would be Madison Bumgarner, a Giants prospect. Hellickson is the Rays best prospect, rated number 18 overall, but you're pretty much splitting hairs between pitching prospects when discussing Perez, Bumgarner, and Hellickson. The Rays rotation is already loaded, one of those pitchers would have to go make room for Hellickson the way it is, right now he's blocked and stuck in AAA unless they would promote to him the bullpen, but I don't think that would happen till later in the season. If the Rays were going to move a pitcher out of the rotation I would guess Matt Garza maybe as he's not homegrown and they are going year to year with him in Arby. James Shields has the most service time, just over 3 years coming into the season, but he's got that wonderful contract. If the Rays wanted to trade him I'd take him in a heartbeat.

 

James Shields rhp

4 years/$11.25M (2008-11), plus 2012-14 club options

• 4 years/$11.25M (2008-11), plus 2012-14 club options
  • signed extension with Tampa Bay 1/23/08
  • 08:$1M, 09:$1.5M, 10:$2.5M, 11:$4.25M, 12:$7M club option ($2M buyout), 13:$9M club option ($1.5M buyout), 14:$12M club option ($1M buyout)
    
  • value of 2012-14 club options may increase package to $38M
  • performance bonuses based on innings pitched, starts, and Cy Young voting may increase package to $44M

• 1 year/$0.3949M (2007)
  • re-signed 3/07

• 1 year (2006)
  • contract purchased 11/05
    

• ML service: 3.125

[Boisebrewer]

Sorry, I guess I should have stated that better. I don't believe we could get Hellickson for McGehee. I was just stating I'd rather get a pitcher with more upside than a number 4 guy since we already seem to have a bunch of those anyway. I don't mind waiting a bit for an arm since we probably aren't going anywhere next year either.

[paul253]

What would it take to get Hellickson? He seems to be exactly what we need and we have a few players the high levels who are blocked by other players. I don't know what TB needs, but how do they look at catcher and outfield? Those seem to be out two most well stocked positions.

[nate82]

What would it take to get Hellickson? He seems to be exactly what we need and we have a few players the high levels who are blocked by other players. I don't know what TB needs, but how do they look at catcher and outfield? Those seem to be out two most well stocked positions.

In the OF the Rays are fine with Jennings who will be replacing Crawford next year. So the OF is not really a concern though they do need another corner OF so Hart could make some sense to the Rays but you are not going to get Hellickson in return for Hart. I think you could get Barnese, Wilking Rodriguez, or David Newmann for Hart. Barnese would be pushing it for the top end of the talent you could get in return for Hart. The only reason I put Barnese in here is because of his shoulder issues he had in 2009 which could make him more available to the Brewers in terms of a trade for Hart. I think Rodriguez or Newmann would be more realistic though for a return of Hart.

 

I am not sure in regards to a catcher though if the Rays would or wouldn't need a catcher.

[3Putt]

I think McGehee's going to be solid for a long time so I'm not inclined to trade him but if I was I certainly wouldn't be comfortable penciling Gamel in at 3B. The last we heard from Gamel his defense was terrible and he had a hole in his swing that opposing pitchers were filling. I'm pulling for the kid but he hasn't given me a reason to believe.