Too Early to Be Demoralized?

[danzig6767]

I don't know if demoralized is the word i'd use for this year's team, but i will say that i don't hold any high hopes that the team has a dramatic turnaround in them to where by say the trade deadline they are reasonably close in the Wild Card race. It just feels like by around late July that the Brewers will be clearly out any playoff consideration.

[pebadger]

My wife has been bugging me since Opening Day about finding a game when the whole extended family can go down. She'd prefer it to be one of the promotional dates. She pays attention to sports, but isn't all that plugged in. Tonight she told me to hold off on buying anything. "Doesn't seem like much fun down there."

 

I'm not the kind of guy who is demonstrative while watching games, don't really talk sports with her and I didn't push her in that that direction in any way. She was just pseudo-watching the game tonight while sewing and got the same vibe I'm sure a lot of folks did.

[RayKingsForemanGrill]

I wonder if a homestand sweep and overall underachieving compared to the talent level gets a manager fired this week?

[Ennder]

"I'll take the 3 year sample over the month and a half of games every time."

 

How's that 3 year sample of the Milwaukee Brewers as a team looking to you right now?? It doesn't look too good to me.

The past 3 years the Brewers have been 253-233, looks pretty darn good to me. If you take it to a 5 year sample they have been 409-401. Not sure what that has to do with this years rotation though.

[TooLiveBrew]

I have to say that it was pretty demoralizing being at last night's game. I've never been to a game at Miller Park where the crowd seemed less into it than that. If not for the back-to-back longballs from Casey & Corey, it would've been like being at a wake for the most part.

 

As much as I love my Rickie avatar, I think it's time to go get some help from the Force.

[Postseason2006]

409-401 is mediocre when you throw in one 4 game playoff appearance. If you can take out the 2008 season, this team has been consistently right below average. The CC trade is THE only reason why that is.

[Beast Light]

0-6 homestand during "Spring Madness" where all of the casual fans come out to the park for the half priced tickets.

 

4-14 record at home which sets a new club record for worst start to a season at home.

Mark Attanasio better turn this thing around quickly. Another season like last year and the recently acquired "Brewers Fever" that Milwaukee has is going to come to an abrupt end. Attendance lags performance and I have a feeling that if the Brewers continue at their current pace for much longer, 2011 tickets are going to be very easy to come by.

 

 

[MJLiverock]

If you are going to be so hung up on 32 games and refuse to believe that statistics aren't really that meaningful over that span of games then I don't think we can really discuss things because we view the game completely irrevocably differently. I'll take the 3 year sample over the month and a half of games every time. If you really think this rotation should have a 5.27 ERA at this point and just can't get better we are never going to come close to agreeing with each other.

So what your saying is you can't be convinced of anything like calling this pitching staff putrid without 3 years of results to draw from? Seems a little too patient or looking for way too much data before making a decison. What does a Suppan's results of 3 years ago really mean to how he will perform now that he is 3 years older and 3 mph or more slower. Same with Davis, Hoffman, Hawkins, etc. all guys who are expected to regress at their age and there is no gurantee of linear smooth fade away. I would hope management and scouting are not waiting for 3 year samples before making every decision that leads to waiting way too long on bad players and missing out on good players.

 

I seem to recall having a similar discussion with you last year around April because the Brewer staff looked awful in April. I agreed with your premise that pitchers can struggle in April but disgreed that it shouldn't be alarming for the Brewers at the time. If all pitchers are struggling, then it stands to reason if you are still at the bottom of the heap that there is more than just early season rustiness. Turns out the staff was awful last year. The team had a 4.83 ERA last year, given the way the bullpen is being tasked with 3+innings every game this year I wouldn't call a plus 5.00 ERA for the season out of the question.

 

[Postseason2006]

The worst part is that these guys are overall worse than last year. Sad part considering I didn't think it could be any worse than last years. Throw in the fact that the closer has been abysmal and Hawkins has been terrible too.

[TheCrew07]

If you are going to be so hung up on 32 games and refuse to believe that statistics aren't really that meaningful over that span of games then I don't think we can really discuss things because we view the game completely irrevocably differently. I'll take the 3 year sample over the month and a half of games every time. If you really think this rotation should have a 5.27 ERA at this point and just can't get better we are never going to come close to agreeing with each other.

I'm not the one who's hung up on an arbitrary data set as proof of anything. I asked a simple question, when does a bad start become a bad season? Your answer, years... Great. I guess there's no point in discussing anything then. Simple math with tell you that it is highly unlikely his ERA will recover to his career average this season. You may want to argue semantics about what bad means, but when I use the word "bad" in the context of a player with an established track record I'm saying he's worse than his career average. Davis will be bad this year, Hoffman will be bad this year. That doesn't mean they won't be able to improve and offer a meaningful contribution to the team throughout the rest of the season, it means there is simply no way they will recover statistically this seasib on the whole, even if they make tremendous strides with their month to month splits going forward, sometimes the whole is just too deep.

 

You're so hung up on "luck" as a legitimate reason for consistent failure that you aren't able to see the forest for the trees. Furthermore sometimes the small sample is the point of conversation. Saying Davis has been bad so far this year is completely proper, no one bad lucks their way to an ERA over 7.5 in 7 full starts. If you want to talk about luck over a 2 or 3 start span I'll listen, once we start a talking a quarter of the season "luck" is less of a factor, not that it was much of a factor to begin with... for every bleeder or dying quail there's a rocket hit right at someone.

 

What's more likely, that Davis has been unlucky or that he just hasn't been able to hit his spots consistently enough?

[endaround]

Davis's FIP is 4.62 his xFIP is 4.68 with GB% of 50.9 and LD% of 18.2. So yes its luck for Davis. But for the Brewers its having a terrible defensive infield.

[MJLiverock]

Davis is also walking just under 5 per 9 innings and has hit 3 batters in 33 innings. Sooner or later walking the world does bite a pitcher.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Davis's FIP is 4.62 his xFIP is 4.68 with GB% of 50.9 and LD% of 18.2. So yes its luck for Davis. But for the Brewers its having a terrible defensive infield.

Not to mention Davis's stuff is below league average, so he's unlucky with that, too. Facts are that he's got a WHIP of 1.98, thrown 3 wild pitches, hit 3 batters, and has a 0.418 on base average against. A pitcher like Davis can be decent with a great defense behind him, but on this Brewer team that stinks at defense, a pitcher like Davis is useless because he can't get himself out of trouble consistently.

 

Another question, if Davis wasn't "unlucky", what do all his secondary statistical numbers profile him to be? A 1.50 WHIP pitcher with an ERA around 5 that still can't get past the 6th inning in a game? Hooray for that upside!

 

I think the member of the Brewers organization that is the most unlucky is Ken Macha - he has to try and manage a pitching staff full of unfulfilled potential and washed up veterans. I'm not a fan of Macha, but I think he's gotten a raw deal to this point here - he took over a team with a relatively potent offense fresh off a playoff appearance largely due to awesome starting pitching. Problem was that the awesome starting pitching was no longer on the roster, and it was replaced with a big bag of bad.

[sheethead]

Davis' success in MLB can be attributed to luck. He is just pitching to his ability this year, and is not getting lucky anymore.

[brewizard]

Not too early to be demoralized. The Brewers are digging themselves a big hole. A white-hot ten game winning streak at this point will get us back to .500. Ugh.

 

Fire Macha? Maybe they can get the Royals to fire Yost again. I dunno what Attanasio can do now except fire Melvin and clean house. But then what?

 

Anyone really think Prince will sign an extension here? Doesn't anyone remember a guy named CC?

 

The magic window is almost completely closed.

[FVBrewerFan]

What scares me the most is that the Brewers are following the Indians path. I remember when jacobs Field opened, it was the hottest ticket in town for a few years. Same as Miller Park in Milwaukee. The Indians had some success, and expectations were high. Again, sound familiar? Fast forward to this year, and the Indians are last in attendance. Is that where the Brewers are headed? The "casual" fans will continue to come out in droves for weekend games when the weather is nice. Cubs and twins games will be packed. Some promotional nights will be busy. Beyond that, this team will not continue to draw big crowds if the optimism goes away.

[And That]

After this afternoon's game... now I'm a little demoralized.

[Postseason2006]

Estrada pitched wonderfully. It just sickens me that they had another game won heading into the 9th only to watch Hoffman not record one out. This is as bad as the Torres meltdown in Zona.

[pebadger]

http://www.fangraphs.com/lgraphs/20100518_Brewers_Reds_0_83_lbig_.png

 

 

[Invader3K]

Well, that's quite depressing to look at.

 

Can anyone say they wouldn't rather have Suppan closing than Hoffman at this point?

[BadgerFan]

If you're not demoralized with this team right now you're either A) not a Brewers fan or B) don't care about winning.

 

This is as bad as things have been in years...only this time we can't point to the "great" prospects that are getting ready in the minors.

[Ennder]

You're so hung up on "luck" as a legitimate reason for consistent failure that you aren't able to see the forest for the trees. Furthermore sometimes the small sample is the point of conversation. Saying Davis has been bad so far this year is completely proper, no one bad lucks their way to an ERA over 7.5 in 7 full starts. If you want to talk about luck over a 2 or 3 start span I'll listen, once we start a talking a quarter of the season "luck" is less of a factor, not that it was much of a factor to begin with... for every bleeder or dying quail there's a rocket hit right at someone.

 

No I just don't use ERA as my primary stat for judging pitchers. ERA is utterly worthless over a 7 game span, it means absolutely nothing. It takes 500 IP for ERA to stabilize into a meaningful value, a single season of the stat is mostly worthless. If you judge Davis by more reasonable means he has been about the same this year as he always has been, he's just given up more runs than normal. You would also realize how poorly Dave Bush has pitched regardless of the results of his ERA.

[Ranier]

If you're not demoralized with this team right now you're either A) not a Brewers fan or B) don't care about winning.

 

This is as bad as things have been in years...only this time we can't point to the "great" prospects that are getting ready in the minors.

I reached the demoralized point today. It's been a rough 10 days, but today was the icing for me.

[wibadgers23]

I can't think of many things that are more demoralizing than today's loss, but losing the next two against Pittsburgh would be a start.

[Invader3K]

I can't think of many things that are more demoralizing than today's loss, but losing the next two against Pittsburgh would be a start.

I was thinking the next two should be gimmes for the Brewers, but then remembered that the Pirates are ahead of us in the standings right now.