Too Early to Be Demoralized?

[logan82]

The pitching hasn't been good but neither has the offense. There have been 10 games where the offense scored 2 or fewer runs and the team lost.

[theavrock]

The pitching hasn't been good but neither has the offense. There have been 10 games where the offense scored 2 or fewer runs and the team lost.

The offense is in the top 5 for every offensive category except batting average, which they are 9th (including walks and OBP). Kind of hard to say they haven't been good. I understand a lot of that was against the Pirates and they have been a roller coaster, but no question if the pitching staff had been better we would be in a much better position.

[BrewCrewForever]

The offense has had their down days, not doubt about that. But the pitching like last season has been the biggest problem with this team.

[logan82]

I am sure over the entire season that if the pitching improves we will win more games. The offense has put up most of their numbers in only some of their games. No matter how good the pitching is, you are not going to win many games where you score 2 or fewer runs. I don't think the offense is poor but when it decides not to show up like has happened in one third of the games, it is difficult to win.

[trwi7]

I agree the offense hasn't been very good. Yeah, they're at or near the top of the league in runs scored, but most of that has come from 8 games. The 10 run inning against the Nationals, the Pirates series where they outscored them 36-1, the first Pirates game at home where they scored 17, the two Dodgers games where they scored 11 in both games and the Arizona games where they scored 17.

 

I know that the runs all still count, but that's 103 runs in 8 games. In the other 27 games they scored an average of 3.26 runs per game. They've scored 3 or fewer runs in 17 of 35 games. Not surprisingly, the Brewers are only 2-15 in those games. Think about that, in almost half their games, they're scoring at a Giants or Padres like pace, except we don't have the pitching to make up for it. It's just bad pitching, bad offense usually and bad defense.

[thablingster]

I don't think it is too early to be demoralized, but instead of abandoning all hope I think it is better that we readjust our expectations for this team.

 

The offense has had its poor days, but the pitching has been terrible and you just can't win with poor pitching. We've only held 4 teams to under less than 3 runs: Arizona, San Diego (in a game we lost), Pittsburgh, and the Dodgers. Left column is runs given up, right column is how many times a team has scored that many runs against us.

 

0 = 2, both vs. PIT

1 = 3, vs. SD, PIT, ARI

2 = 1, vs. ARI

3 = 4, vs. ARI, LAD, SD, PIT

4 = 1, vs. COL

5 = 5

6 = 3

7 = 6

8 = 4

9 = 4

10+ = 2

 

It is really hard to win games consistently when your opponents have scored 5 or more runs in 24 of 35 games. Yikes.

[markedman5]

7 or more runs in 16 of 35 games?

 

I knew it was bad but wow.

 

ps. Make that 17 out of 36.

[DougJones43]

Only one single time all season has a Brewers starting pitcher (Randy Wolf vs PIT) gone more than 7 innings.

[owbc]

In 2008, the offense was asleep early in the season, and we all knew that it would wake up eventually.

 

This year, the pitching is the problem. We all knew pitching was this team's weakness. We all know the history of currently struggling pitchers like Davis, Bush, Vargas, and Parra. They certainly have room for improvement, but there is only so much upside that we can expect.

 

The offense has been great--near the top of the league statistically. I am not convinced that the offense is responsible for even 10% of the blame so far. Every team has cold stretches like the Padres series, but almost no teams have hot stretches like what we have seen. Only the best pitching teams win a decent percentage of the games that they score 3 or fewer runs, it isn't just us. In addition, the offense should actually get better as summer approaches, as only McGehee is over-performing to this point and everyone else is doing about what we thought or worse.

 

There is no chance at a division title (there never really was). The Cardinals have 6 games against the Royals coming up, while we get the World Series contending Twins. The big question is--can we fix the pitching staff enough to compete with the Wild Card contenders? It's going to take significant improvement from the current players combined with help from Axford, Braddock, Capuano, and a trade acquisition. Usually, things will even themselves out over 162 games and barring major injuries or trades, the Brewers will end up right around the early season projections (about the same as last year).

 

The big surprise this year is the bad home record, but there is no reason to believe that the pitching will get much better. It is one thing to get back to .500, but it requires rising to a different level to go 75-51 to win 90 games (which only gets you to the playoffs about half of the time). There are only a handful of teams in the last 15 years that have rattled off hot streaks like that after slow starts--and most were young teams with nothing to lose, not a team like the Brewers that is already under growing pressure to win at home and on national TV.

 

But despite all that, I am not demoralized. I do not need a playoff race to enjoy the Brewers, and even if this team only wins 75 games, it has more than enough exciting players to keep me entertained. It is sad to see the dull and shrinking crowds at Miller Park, though. The energy wasn't there on Opening Day, and it has only gotten worse since.

[Ennder]

but there is no reason to believe that the pitching will get much better

 

There is really no reason to think it won't get better. Parra is the only pitcher on the team with a career ERA higher than the team ERA. There is absolutely no reason at all to think this team should have anywhere close to a 5.27 ERA, it is just a bad stretch to start the season. Not that the staff is great or anything but it isn't this bad either.

[Invader3K]

After seeing three Brewers losses first hand this week, I am definitely demoralized. Also, somewhat angry.

 

I just don't think Macha is the right manager for this team. Do I blame him for everything? No. He is working with what he was given. I just don't agree with many of his decisions, especially having Narveson throw 130 pitches. However, Melvin has to be held accountable for putting together a terrible pitching staff two seasons in a row. The starting rotation is just unacceptably bad right now. Chances are they will improve somewhat as the season continues, but right now it's getting embarrassing to watch this team.

 

I also wonder what good Rick Peterson is doing. He definitely doesn't seem to be the miracle worker that Mike Maddux seemed to be.

[owbc]

Yes, the pitching staff will get a little better, but I think league average is about the best they will be able to do, assuming there are no injuries. Even that will probably not be enough to win 75 more games this year.

[TheCrew07]

it is just a bad stretch to start the season. Not that the staff is great or anything but it isn't this bad either.

When does a bad stretch become poor performance? June 1? July 1? Game 162? This talk is eerily similar to the Hardy talk from last year... he's just unlucky, he'll turn it around, and so on.

 

I made my point about the rotation very thoroughly when the rotation was "addressed" this off season. It doesn't matter who we have in the bullpen because the starters are leaving too many innings for the bullpen to pitch. When our best pitcher struggles to get through 6 IP because of a high pitch count, we have no hope of bullpen relief, there is isn't a starter in the rotation capable of giving the pen an occasional night off. Yes Wolf and Davis are statistically better (or should be) than the spots the are replacing, but that was only half the battle. Maybe after the last 2 seasons people around will start to lean more towards quality than quantity... trading out 3rd, 4th, and 5th starters is just treading water, we aren't gaining ground doing that and we won't gain ground doing that.

[Invader3K]

I agree Crew07. I think one of the major problems is that Gallardo in particular isn't really pitching like a #1. More like a strong #2. When you don't have a real #1 pitcher, "ace", "stopper", whatever you want to call it in the rotation, your team probably isn't going to contend.

 

I just don't get why none of them are stepping up and going a bit deeper into games. It seems like every single game lately we've seen a starter use 25-30 pitches in one of the first three innings. Just not good at all, and it's going to destroy the bullpen if it hasn't already. It makes me question what Peterson is teaching these guys.

[BrewCrewForever]

Biggest sign to me that I am demoralized. I have been keeping up much more with the minor league forum. Because I am looking to the future. And that is what I did 4 or 5 years ago on a regular basis.

[Diggr14]

I agree, it is a little bit too early. This team has talent, however, they lack any sort of consistency that you require to win a bulk of games over a 162 game schedule.

 

I really do not see any type of unifying factors coming on the horizon for this squad. I am of the opinion that it is time to blow the ship up and start over with pieces that do not fit a long term strategy.

 

Basically, If your name isn't McGehee, Braun, Escobar, or Gallardo you should put your house up for sale.

 

I would be more encouraged as a fan if they started trading assets that arent going to be future pillars of this team as opposed to sitting here hoping for miracles and watching value of these assets decline.

[BrewCrewForever]

Basically, If your name isn't McGehee, Braun, Escobar, or Gallardo you should put your house up for sale.

 

I pretty much agree with that, except I might put Weeks and Gomez in that group as well. Maybe even Wolf because they just signed him. But everyone else is fair game and I am fine if any other player on the current 25 man is traded.

[Ennder]

When does a bad stretch become poor performance? June 1? July 1? Game 162? This talk is eerily similar to the Hardy talk from last year... he's just unlucky, he'll turn it around, and so on.

 

Takes more than a full season to offset multiple years of history to be honest. Fans in general overreact to almost everything and assume every bad stretch and every good stretch means way more than it does.

 

Results wise there is no real reason to complain about Gallardo, Wolf or Bush at this point. I hope you don't honestly think Davis is a 7.56 ERA quality pitcher especially given his peripherals on the year. Hoffman, Vargas, Hawkins have all been pretty miserable and who knows maybe they are done but I still doubt the 3 of them or their replacements combine for the 9+ ERA they have together on the year.

[markedman5]

Looks like our starting pitching continues to be unlucky.

 

Its amazing how consistently unlucky we are.

 

Game after game it looks the same. Walks, Ground rule doubles, early runs that put us in a hole and high pitch counts that require an already spent bullpen to cover 4 innings.

[TheCrew07]

Results wise there is no real reason to complain about Gallardo, Wolf or Bush at this point. I hope you don't honestly think Davis is a 7.56 ERA quality pitcher especially given his peripherals on the year. Hoffman, Vargas, Hawkins have all been pretty miserable and who knows maybe they are done but I still doubt the 3 of them or their replacements combine for the 9+ ERA they have together on the year.

That's such a statistical slant on the situation though. I'm not talking about establishing a career trend, I'm talking about establishing a season of ineptitude. When does a bad start truly become a bad season? We had people around here claiming JJ would still pull out of it in August last year, but even if he would have he still would have a had a poor season by his own standards. I'm sure there would have been comparisons to the league average SS and everything that goes with it (see justification of Suppan as a 5th starter), but the reality would have been that JJ had played at a lever far below the bar he had previously set for that one season on the whole. At some point, it has to be proper to call a spade a spade.

 

Why is the question always... "if you think pitcher X is going to have ERA Y all season...". That's not really the point. He doesn't have the talent to pitch down to a 2.0 ERA for a significant amount of time to even out the garbage. We're 6 weeks in, he'd have to be phenomenal from this point forward to get back to last year's numbers, which means it's unlikely to happen. If every starting pitcher just pitches to career norms from this point forward then great, but that really doesn't help any of them dig themselves or the team out of the hole they've put themselves in when were basically an 81 win team (give or take) coming into the season. How many of our starting pitchers are realistically capable of putting up extended streaks of very good starts to even out the very bad? Maybe Gallardo and Wolf? The rest of the guys have to be pretty consistent to get their numbers, but they've just been consistently bad as a pitching staff to this point.

 

As far as Gallardo goes, there's plenty to complain about, and he's one of my boys. It's not nit picking, he's plateaued, he's not ascending anymore, he's still using way too many pitches because he ends up in so many 3 ball counts. I never claimed he was ready to be an ace, and while he's gotten very good results generally speaking in the innings he's pitched he's still leaving 3 or 4 innings for the bullpen every start, which is something you'd expect more from your 5th starter than your 1st. I don't see how it's reasonable to ignore the cumulative effect of leaving so many innings out there for the bullpen in every start from every pitcher. I realize it's very difficult to quantify statistically, but shouldn't we be able to agree that the pitchers in the bull pen are typically the least best pitchers on the staff? With that idea in mind shouldn't we be looking to minimize their innings instead of maximizing their opportunities like has been the case the last 2 seasons? I firmly believe at some point Yo is going to take another step forward and figure out how to work later into games, but what if it doesn't happen this year? Is that just more "bad luck"?

[Ennder]

If you are going to be so hung up on 32 games and refuse to believe that statistics aren't really that meaningful over that span of games then I don't think we can really discuss things because we view the game completely irrevocably differently. I'll take the 3 year sample over the month and a half of games every time. If you really think this rotation should have a 5.27 ERA at this point and just can't get better we are never going to come close to agreeing with each other.

[Omar Little]

"I'll take the 3 year sample over the month and a half of games every time."

 

How's that 3 year sample of the Milwaukee Brewers as a team looking to you right now?? It doesn't look too good to me.

[BadgerFan]

0-6 homestand during "Spring Madness" where all of the casual fans come out to the park for the half priced tickets.

 

4-14 record at home which sets a new club record for worst start to a season at home.

 

Now a road trip against two division leaders and the Pirates.

 

Demoralized? No. Lost all hope, ready to trade anyone for decent pitching, for all intensive purposes this season is over? Yes.

[owbc]

The season isn't over, but this is definitely a new low. I can't remember the last time I was this demoralized as a Brewers fan...maybe 2006.

[logan82]

I wasn't to enthusiastic about the Brewers at the start of the season.(probably in no small part because I doubt I will be going to any games, I find I am not as enthusiastic if I don't get to a game periodically) So far they have done nothing to peak my interest. My expectations were a little above .500, 83ish wins I think. I may adjust that down a bit at this point but I still don't think playing a little above .500 ball the rest of the season is out of the question. I would go with about 81 wins and sellers at the deadline. Hopefully sellers if we are not within 3-4 games of a playoff spot. I would really hate to see us going the Astros route.