Too Early to Be Demoralized?

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

For me, demoralized would mean hopeless...I don't see that as the case, but this start has certainly been a bit of a bummer. Reverse a few of those blow saves and we're nipping at the Cards heels. The hard part for fans is expectations are a little higher after the playoff appearance, but the team is only marginally better. There is also a perception of a closing window based on Fielder's contract which adds a sense of urgency to the season. My biggest concern is that translates into lower attendance which would mean a lower payroll...exacerbating the problem.

 

We've had some bad luck so far this year...over 162 games some of that will reverse. Hang in there folks.

[FVBrewerFan]

I still think this team needs a #1 starter to be legit. Gallardo is young, and could devleop into that role but he's not there yet, let's face it. Until the Brewers have a top shelf 1-3 rotation, they will need everything to fall exactly right with a ton of luck to make the post-season. They are rapidly wasting the window we were talking about years ago, and will need to do it with mostly the next crop of players. While that can be done with Braun, Weeks, Escobar, Lucroy, etc. they will be nothing more than a fun team to watch without that rock solid 1-3 at the top of the rotation.

 

Ideally, you hope and pray Gallardo can evolve into the #1, making it a lot easier to get the other 2. Hopefully one comes from a Fielder trade, and the other can come up through the system. Mark A. and Melvin jsut need to stop fooling themselves into believing guys like Suppan and Davis can be top of the rotation starters. I know it's not easy, that's what has to happen.

[joepepsi]

There are signs the rotation is stabilizing and getting pretty good. 7 of the last 9 starts have been QS if you fudge a bit and give credit to Narveson for yesterday's game. Wolf, Gallardo, and Bush have been effective-each has only had one bad start. Gallardo and Wolf in particular are rolling into mid season-quality form.

 

The offense is fine. So is the defense.

 

The only problem is the bullpen. Out of the four; rotation, bullpen, offense, defense, the bullpen is probably the easiest to fix mid season. Some of these guys will stabilize, some of them may need to be replaced. Especially for fans, it stinks to watch the bullpen blow a game, but for the team it's far worse to have a bad rotation that gives up 5 runs a game.

 

I'll give them about two weeks to figure out/stabilize the bullpen before being demoralized. I think the rest of the team is as good as any in the league.

[Invader3K]

I still think this team needs a #1 starter to be legit. Gallardo is young, and could devleop into that role but he's not there yet, let's face it. Until the Brewers have a top shelf 1-3 rotation, they will need everything to fall exactly right with a ton of luck to make the post-season.

I've been thinking more and more about this. If you look around at most playoff teams...and not just teams that squeak in, but teams that make it to the LCS and the World Series, they usually have a very good combo of 3/4 type hitters, a legit ace, and then a very good #1/2 type starter in the second spot of the rotation. We have the offensive combo in Braun/Fielder, but I don't think Gallardo is ever going to be the legit ace some were hoping for. I think he is more like a very good #2. If Melvin could have somehow swung a trade for a guy like Halladay or Peavey, or some younger guy (can't think of names off hand that may have been available), we would be sitting much better off this year. A playoff rotation of something like Peavey/Gallardo/Wolf would not be bad at all. Of course if we traded for one of those aces that were moved last year, we might not have signed Wolf, but then again we might have let Suppan go and not signed Davis either.

 

I just think our window of opportunity is shutting faster than Melvin and company could have envisioned, and it's closing with every series the Brewers let slip away this year. Melvin better not kid himself this summer. If the team isn't sitting in legitimate contention by the All-Star break (and I don't mean kind of hovering around .500 like last year), then it's time for rebuild mode. Trade Fielder and any other expensive pieces you can, and make the potential rebuild much shorter than it would be trying to make another half-baked contention run in 2011 with the same roster we have in place right now.

[sheethead]

I'm a bit demoralized because in essence we do not have an effective closer. Until that situation is resolved, I will be demoralized each time the current closer is trotted out there, and its due to a complete lack of player accountability with respect to management. I will feel demoralized with a 1 or 2 run lead late in games. Fans should not feel demoralized when their team is holding a lead. Solomon Torres where are you? Maybe he changed his name to Todd Coffey?

[RobDeer 45]

I'm a little sick when thinking what our record "could" be or "should" be but I'm fine with where we are at. Last few seasons we've started out on fire only to struggle down the stretch. I was hoping that we'd start out middle of the road this year and then start to click and play well mid season and take that momentum down the stretch. So if we continue to tweak some things I think we can play some good ball. Maybe my reasoning and hope is a little superstitious but let's hope that's how it works out.

[The Truth]

The money spent on Suppan, Hoffman, and Hall alone could have been put into signing a pitching ace, or signing Prince longterm. Hoffman was great last year but that didn't put us over the top to being a playoff team. I just don't think a small market team can afford to sign a closer (let alone an aging closer) to $10 million per. The Gagne/Hoffman thing is the mark that shows that Melvin is in over his head

 

I just don't think we'll get much further until we replace Melvin and Macha

[monty57]

Funny, I'd think one person single-handedly costing the team 4 or 5 wins over the course of 20 games would seem to show that his position is pretty important. Sure, it's looking like a mistake to have paid Hoffman the money this year, but there are mistake contracts all over baseball for every position on the field. How many of those mistakes have already cost their team as many wins as our closer has cost us?

 

I know the SABR gods have "proven" how dumb it is to put money into the bullpen, but doesn't our current situation show that it's pretty important to have a good pitcher in the 9th inning?

[greeg35]

I know the SABR gods have "proven" how dumb it is to put money into the bullpen, but doesn't our current situation show that it's pretty important to have a good pitcher in the 9th inning?

Its a good idea to have a good pitcher pitching as often as possible. It helps not to overpay for an overhyped position like closer so you can spend that money on more tangible and predictable areas.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't even agree with the concept of a closer, it's an invention of modern baseball. If a reliever just pitched a great 8th inning, and obviously has his "stuff" working, why not pitch him in the 9th? Or I could see going situational in the 9th. A rightie up? Let Coffey pitch to him. Then two lefties? Put Stetter in. Nobody seems to like "closing by committee." Maybe the truth is somewhere in the middle. i jsut think it's lazy managing to say EVERY save siutaion we MUST put in our closer for the entire 9th inning.

[monty57]

But if the position is "overhyped," how has it cost us so many wins already this year? None of our starting pitchers have cost us as much as Hoffman has this year.

 

I think it's very important to grow your own bullpen from the farm to keep it cheap (like many other positions on the field), but if you can't do that, as the Brewers haven't been able to do, then you have to pay for free agents. As I just mentioned in another thread, I wanted Hoffman traded last season, as he would've brought back a nice haul. Melvin obviously overpaid him this season, as I believe he was willing to sign for $4MM last year to stay in San Diego, so he likely would have signed for less, but that said, I think his single-handedly destroying the Brewers' season shows it is an important position.

[rluzinski]

I know the SABR gods have "proven" how dumb it is to put money into the bullpen, but doesn't our current situation show that it's pretty important to have a good pitcher in the 9th inning?

My goodness, someone doesn't like the statistical analysis of baseball. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Let's set the record straight:

 

Sabermetrics attempts to estimate the dollar value of performance by each player. Closers are asked to perform in higher leverage situations and sabermetrics adjusts for that. A run saved by a closer is worth more than a run saved by the the long relief guy. I think everyone agrees with that.

 

The disagreement comes with estimating how much more that run saved is worth. It appears that the average GM places more value on 9th innning performance than current analytical analysis does. So, it's not "dumb to put money in the bullpen," it's just not advised to put MORE money in the bullpen than is justified.

 

With Hoffman, though, the problem wasn't just with overestimating leverage, it was also (IMO) overestimating his true ability. If Melvin was expecting another sub 3.0 ERA from Hoffman, he was problably expecting too much. I won't pretend that Hoffman is an easy guy to project though, so there's a lot of room for disagreement.

[logan82]

let's check these past few years to see how difficult it is to win without a solid closer

 

We went to the playoffs with a replacement closer in Torres.

 

Bush who is decent when healthy but not consistent

 

Almost all pitchers are inconsistent. The only ones who are not are Cy Young candidates.

[DougJones43]

But if the position is "overhyped," how has it cost us so many wins already this year?

Because he's gotten hammered and given up lots of runs. If he had given up all those runs in the 7th or 8th inning instead of the 9th it still would have cost us games.

[FVBrewerFan]

Bush who is decent when healthy but not consistent

 

Almost all pitchers are inconsistent. The only ones who are not are Cy Young candidates.

Or Jeff Suppan.

[SeriesFinale]

I'm demoralized, in maybe the lightest sense of the word.

 

Not so much in the overall performance, although it's slightly worse than I'd have expected (and I guess in that broader sense I'm kinda disappointed in slow starts from guys like Sharpie, Alcides, and even Prince), just the individual ways they've lost so many late leads. Those kinds of gut punches can't help but demoralize, maybe even more than getting their cans kicked by the Cubs at MP.

 

That said, I agree that we've a ways to go, and maybe I'm crazy, but I think the worst could be over in terms of blown saves (knocking on wood here) and you have to feel confident that Prince will heat up (as Sharpie will, presumably). And who knows what the tradewinds could bring.

 

In yesterday's IGT I was all for going on a "Brewers' Break" to stave off aggravation, but I'm full of it. For one thing, as one of brewerfan's West Coast contingent, I love weeknight games that I can watch the entirety of, but the fact is, even if they stay as they've been I won't mentally pack it in on the season until July 4th (and even then, of course, it could be too early) and as such am still keyed in, despite the gut-punch losses.

 

Now, if any furniture gets thrown around this weekend after another late innings lead is choked away, yeah, I might take that break regardless!

[MessiahRp]

let's check these past few years to see how difficult it is to win without a solid closer

 

We went to the playoffs with a replacement closer in Torres.

 

Bush who is decent when healthy but not consistent

 

Almost all pitchers are inconsistent. The only ones who are not are Cy Young candidates.

Yeah but Torres was a pretty effective closer for that year. The last thing we need is another year where we have a Turnbow/Gagne-like implosion and we are scrambling to find a back end solution.

 

Also Bush isn't just inconsistent... he's maddeningly so. Because few regular inconsistent pitchers go from the flashes of brilliance he tends to show to absolute crap which he does in his bad starts. That's a far more stark contrast than most pitchers' inconsistencies.

 

[MJLiverock]

FVBrewerfan and Rluz both kinda hit on my beliefs as well. I just wonder if the Brewers have the "guts" to step away from the baseball thinking that you have to have an 8th inning guy and a 9th inning guy, etc. If a guy just set down the side in order on a dozen pitches why does he have to come out? He is throwing strikes and already warm, leave him in unless the obvious lefty/right switch needs to made.

 

And if they have the "guts" to just pull Hoffman from closer role and use him in mop up until he can show he commands his FB and Change as well as just DFAing Suppan, bring Stetter up and see if Parra can start. The team needs to figure out if Parra is any sort of answer going forward.

 

The idea they have to have a bullpen of veteran guys who may be less talented with less upside than guys in AAA is a contributing factor the $$'s spent on the bullpen. This is one area the team could have saved money to spend on the rotation where they had no AAA talent ready to fill in.

[NievesNoNO]

The money spent on Suppan, Hoffman, and Hall alone could have been put into signing a pitching ace, or signing Prince longterm.

Who? They signed Wolf who was considered by many as the second best FA pitching option. True aces rarely get to free agency and the ones that do receive CC type money. I don't mind the short term larger deals for Hoffman or Gagne, there's not really a big commitment there. The alternative is a Riske type situation or plugging in your own young arms and see who sinks or floats.

 

I think it's too early for me to be demoralized yet. Hopefully the players feel the same way, but as bad as we feel as fans I'm sure the players feel even worse so I'm sure it's taken at least a small toll on some of them. I actually think there's reason to be reasonably optimistic. We've been leading late into games and I think the Brewers bullpen will come around. Most of the guys out there have a solid track record at least. I also think Gomez has been better than expected, Escobar has hit decent, McGhee has proved last year wasn't a fluke and Prince has yet to really hit. All in all I think we're in for an entertaining season yet.

 

 

[monty57]

I know the SABR gods have "proven" how dumb it is to put money into the bullpen, but doesn't our current situation show that it's pretty important to have a good pitcher in the 9th inning?

My goodness, someone doesn't like the statistical analysis of baseball. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Let's set the record straight:

 

Sabermetrics attempts to estimate the dollar value of performance by each player. Closers are asked to perform in higher leverage situations and sabermetrics adjusts for that. A run saved by a closer is worth more than a run saved by the the long relief guy. I think everyone agrees with that.

 

The disagreement comes with estimating how much more that run saved is worth. It appears that the average GM places more value on 9th innning performance than current analytical analysis does. So, it's not "dumb to put money in the bullpen," it's just not advised to put MORE money in the bullpen than is justified.

 

With Hoffman, though, the problem wasn't just with overestimating leverage, it was also (IMO) overestimating his true ability. If Melvin was expecting another sub 3.0 ERA from Hoffman, he was problably expecting too much. I won't pretend that Hoffman is an easy guy to project though, so there's a lot of room for disagreement.

Well put. I actually like the statistical analysis of baseball. What gets me are posts such as "strikeouts don't matter," "ERA is a useless stat," "bunting is always a terrible idea," or "closers are useless." I guess my push is more into not having an absolute belief in anything, as nothing is always the case, and quotes like those above take analysis that leans one way and try to make a theory into an absolute truth that the theory isn't even claiming. The "SABR gods" statement I made comes from the absolute nature of these believers, and isn't aimed at (most of) the people putting the theories together. For example, the statisticians who did all the work on the negative effect of strikeouts, and how it's not as bad as perceived would probably agree that a strikeout is worse than a fly out when there's a runner on third with no outs. The "SABR gods" simply state "Strikeouts don't matter."

 

On topic, while we've been great at drafting and grooming hitters, we have been horrific with pitchers. We've gone on and on about starters, but what gets forgotten is that we only have one decent bullpen arm (Villy) on the roster who was home grown. When you have to build your entire bullpen through free agency, it's going to get expensive. The fact that most of our losses this season are from bullpen blowups shows just how valueable this facet of the game is, and it's even more valueable when we don't have starters who can consistantly go more than 5-6 innings, so pen (in aggregate) has to pick up around 30-40% of the total innings pitched. Since we have been seemingly incapable of developing decent arms of our own, I guess I'd rather overspend to get decent pitchers rather than "go cheap" with the likes of Joe Winklesas.

 

That said, I agree Hoffman was way overpaid. Pre-2009, San Diego was going to pay him $4MM and he was going to take it, so I'm sure we could have signed him cheaper than we did this season. Therefore, I'll agree that Melvin overpays for late inning guys. In fact, I'll agree with your whole post {except for the part about me not liking statisical analysis :-)}. What I won't agree with are posts along the lines of "spending money on closers/bullpen is a waste of money." Like all other positions, it just needs to be spent wisely.

 

Hopefully, with Stetter, Dillard, Braddock, etc, we'll have a cheap bullpen soon. Of course, I don't know how Macha would handle a pen with 3 or 4 young arms in it, but I've already went on long enough.

[sheethead]

We went to the playoffs with a replacement closer in Torres.

 

But they had to acquire CC Sabathia to make that happen. I don't see an acquisition of that magnitude happening this year (didn't that year either, but moot). Therefore, margin of error is even slimmer this year than in 2008. They can implement replacement closer now, or continue to send a pitcher WORSE than 2008 Gagne (at this point) out night after night.

 

Glad its not my decision, but I would implement Plan B immediately, even though Macha said he doesn't know what it is (I'm sure he can figure one out in between naps).

[joepepsi]

Is Manny Parra the best pitcher in the 'pen? If so, he should be pitching in the most crucial situations, right? Usually, at least in close games, that's going to be the 9th.

[sheethead]

Is Manny Parra the best pitcher in the 'pen? If so, he should be pitching in the most crucial situations, right? Usually, at least in close games, that's going to be the 9th.

Sounds like a Plan B to me. Let's do it!

[TheCrew07]

I know the SABR gods have "proven" how dumb it is to put money into the bullpen, but doesn't our current situation show that it's pretty important to have a good pitcher in the 9th inning?

If Hoffman gave up those runs in the 8th inning what would be difference besides the offense having an extra inning to get the runs back? He would have blown the lead regardless where he pitched. Personally speaking, I'd like to match up my best pitcher against the more important situation and the best hitters. The 9th inning isn't any more important than any other inning.

 

 

[rluzinski]

Yeh, it's important to have a good reliever to have when the game is on the line. If you can plug in an elite reliever into the game when a run saved is worth more, his value is higher. Teams just aren't good at selecting those times. Managers use easy to follow rules simply because they don't have to worry about being criticized if it doesn't work.