Too Early to Be Demoralized?

[Invader3K]

Willie is not what we need as manager.

What we need as manager is someone who is magically able to get the starting pitchers to go longer in games and pitch better. Unfortunately, I don't think Merlin the Wizard is available.

[MJLiverock]

Fans have the luxury of only caring about what has already happened. The powers that be have to estimate who are the best players available at any given moment throughout the entire season. Sometimes the results perfectly reflect that, sometimes they sort of do and sometimes they don't at all.

 

There is no gurantee of mean reversion, especially for players past their prime. You are right that the powers that be have to estimate what the future holds for each player but they are charged with getting it right and sometimes a player has to be dropped, demoted, cut, etc. because they just aren't a good enough option. It is a hard task but that is the job. Continual failure at talent evaluation is reason for firing, it doesn't matter how many statistical models they built or projected for a guy if they all turn out wrong.

 

The hardest thing in stock investing is knowing when to sell. There is always some beliefe the stock will recover, the market just doesn't appreciate it, the stock used to be higher, etc and conversely, the stock has done well so it will always do well so selling high is missed.

 

That seems to be crux of many arguements here-- the Brewers have missed a number of times on guys when they hung on players always looking for that rebound or reversion to career mean and conversely failed to sell on the guys (or in some cases bought more Hall, Turnbow deals) who were at peak and not likely to remain there. Sure hindsight is 20/20 but the fact is the results have not been good and that is the measuring stick. Nobody is going to be perfect but the cumulation of all choices made by management as reflected in the only stat that matters (wins, losses) shows the Brewers weren't very good last year, aren't very good this year and next year doesn't look a whole lot different without major changes.

Not many fans are in this to see how close to statistical models a team can perform or how many WAR a player is but instead they want actual wins and losses, that is is why the game is played.

[PeaveyFury]

The great Willie Davis had a leadoff hitter with a sub .300 OBP for an entire season.

 

Davis also passed away in March, so he's probably a poor choice for manager. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Invader3K]

I agree with what you're essentially saying. Melvin has been pretty bad at forecasting player performance going forward. And we aren't talking about figuring out which rookies are going to succeed, we're talking about aging veterans or guys who were never really key prospects to begin with (as you mentioned: Hall, Turnbow). Yes, it's very tough, but a small market GM has to be adept at such future planning or he is going to fail in the long run.

[Beast Light]

I am beginning to understand why some of you guys are saying Davis has just been unlucky.

 

That being said, I think it is then time that this franchise starts going after luckier players to replace those who are unlucky.

[pebadger]

If we're going to say the the players that are scuffling because they are "unlucky", shouldn't that mitigate all the blame that is being piled at Melvin's doorstep in the various threads around here?

 

All Melvin has to go on are either the currently reviled 'gut-feelings' about a player or the in-vogue objective statistical metrics. If players are failing to live up to ther reasonable mathematical projections, how can that be put on Melvin if he did in fact rely on such projections in constructing the club? Don't the players have to live up to their own failure to post numbers in line with the predictive model to a greater degree than does the guy who relies on that model? After all, the players alone possess a far greater degree of control over those metrics than the GM ever could.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Fans have the luxury of only caring about what has already happened. The powers that be have to estimate who are the best players available at any given moment throughout the entire season. Sometimes the results perfectly reflect that, sometimes they sort of do and sometimes they don't at all.

I understand that. I put great value in the predictive stats. I honestly do. I'm simply implicating that at some point whether it's talent or luck, you have to look at a 15-24 record and say "crap's not going right"

 

Let me put it another way, because, as you say, I'm a fan only, with the luxury of result being my only concern. IF I were DM, would I bail on Davis? Absolutely not. But at some point, the results truly are what matters. The results sell season tickets. The results are what show up in the standings page. I don't think anyone sits back at the end of the season and calls it a 'success' because the peripheral stats indicate we SHOULD have had a good year, but lost 90 games anyways.

 

It's like if I'm sitting outside and it's 58 degrees. I SHOULD be cold, but it's been really cool the last week, and 58 feels nice today. The result, the temperature is comfortable, despite what the numbers without context would indicate.

 

In the case of Doug Davis or Trevor Hoffman, I'm not overly concerned about what the stats indicate for future predictability. They're neither one of them long term pieces of the puzzle here. At 15-24, unless something major changes, this team can't and won't contend this year. Not that too many people thought they would, but I also don't think it's unreasonable to think this team could have been .500, which is a handful of LUCKY plays from being in a playoff race.

 

Heck, if Hoffman is even an average reliever, and blows 2 of his 10 save attempts, they're 18-21, and mass panic probably wouldn't be the rule of the day.

[SeriesFinale]

I'm beyond demoralized and to apathetic.

 

I wonder if I sent Mark A my Extra Innings bill, would he reimburse me?!?

 

I'm only looking forward to two things now, how the team will respond to new management, and the trade deadline.

[danzig6767]

Instead of being demoralized as i previously was, i now sit and watch games just wondering when the pitching staff will implode in some combination of simply terrible pitching, bad defense, and/or seeing eye singles. It feels like a game killing inning is just inevitable at some point in the game.

 

When they show Macha in the dugout lately, he usually has the look on his face like i feel. As if he's watching from the dugout just wondering when the point in the game will come, not if it will that he'll have to at the very least make one pitching decision where he's thinking, man i really don't want to have to go out there and make this move.

[Invader3K]

Choice quote from last night:

 

“I’m concerned about the fact that I suck,” said Wolf, who allowed 10 hits, five walks and all six runs before departing with one out in the seventh. “I’m not going to candy coat it. How many (walks) did I have today? Five? That’s horrible. I need to be more aggressive and pitch to contact.

 

Us too, Randy.

[TooLiveBrew]

“I’m concerned about the fact that I suck”

 

Even though last night's game was another really depressing one, that quote is hilarious & awesome

[PeaveyFury]

It's becoming more than a little concerning that multiple players are publicly questioning their results and seemingly know what they need to do to make things better, but aren't doing them. Doesn't exactly reflect well on the coaching staff.

[brewmann04]

Yes seen that here with the Mets when Willie was Running the show.This team lacks focus and direction and the players are underperforming.

[Ennder]

There is no bad luck in Hoffman's stats for what it is worth, he has earned that high of an ERA. Doug Davis pretty clearly has been unlucky this year, Dave Bush has pretty clearly been lucky. The rest of the rotation is pretty neutral as far as any luck in the stats. Davis has a 58% LOB rate and a .441 BABIP against while keeping all of his other stats completely normal, that is just variation in ERA like 99% of the time. I'm willing to bet he has a stretch like this every season since he puts so many guys on base when a few extra balls find holes against him he probably always sees a big jump in ERA.

[Gobias Industries]

I agree with what your saying, Ennder. It even completely passes the eye test. Bush has looked significantly worse than Davis this year. Hoffman is probably lucky to have the ERA he does. He's had a ton of hard hit outs.

[MJLiverock]

Davis hasn't made it past the 5th inning in 4 of his 7 starts mainly because he can't consistenly throw strikes and runs up his pitch count. He may have had some bad luck in some cases with bleeders and seeing eye singles but with the way he walks guys the runs he gives up are no surprise. His ERA is also going to take a beating because of his few innings pitched as well because of his high pitch counts.

 

Davis averages 21.3 pitches per inning the only pitcher with 500 pitches this year (davis has 700+ pithes thrown) who is worse is knuckle baller Haeger at 21.8 pitches per inning.

 

Davis also averges only 44% of his pitches in the zone compared the leage average last year of 49%. Davis has amazingly seen his in the zone pitches decline for 6 straight years including this year. Batters are only swinging at 39.5% of his pitches vs. average of about 45%.

 

Swinging strikes for Davis are only 4.9% compares to his normal of around 7%. His Z contact percentage or percentage of his in the zone pitches that are hit is 92.6% vs. 87.8% league averages. His O swing is 74.7%, meaning contact is made on almost 75% of his out of zone pitches vs. average being 62%.

 

I know it is a lot of stats but it tells me he isn't fooling anyone at the plate with his stuff - - guys make contact with anything they swing at, even out of the zone stuff. The stuff they lay off must be pretty bad cause if it is close they swing and make contact and they lay off a lot of pitches.

 

Bad control and weak pitches add up to giving up runs and may be lucky it isn't worse. But anyway I see it he isn't a good pitcher and is below average.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Davis couldnt even get through 5 innings in Washington when we scored 10 runs in the first inning. Davis is just not a good pitcher.

[rluzinski]

Fans have the luxury of only caring about what has already happened. The powers that be have to estimate who are the best players available at any given moment throughout the entire season. Sometimes the results perfectly reflect that, sometimes they sort of do and sometimes they don't at all.

I understand that. I put great value in the predictive stats. I honestly do. I'm simply implicating that at some point whether it's talent or luck, you have to look at a 15-24 record and say "crap's not going right"

The results have been terrible and I don't think anyone would disagree. But raw performance and the result of that performance doesn't correlate 1:1 in baseball. It's nondeterministic. A line drive can end in an out and a half swing blooper can win the game. I think it makes some baseball fans uncomfortable to accept that a huge part of baseball is just dumb luck but there's no way around that fact.

 

I don't think we really disagree about anything though.

[FVBrewerFan]

Well, I feel better today. Do I think this team can be a legit playoff contender this year? I do not. But at least they're finally making moves based on talent rather than money and "respecting veterans." Gomez is back, along with Axford, Braddock, and Lucroy. The rotation finally have 5 guys who are decent enough. If nothing else, they should be fun to watch. I would like them to just eat the contract for Davis. They already have 3 starting lefties better than him, certainly younger. Next time a spot opens up in the rotation, I would love to see Peralta get the opportunity to start.

 

Perfect season to get these guys started. And it's not even the scenerio where they're "giving up on the season." Because these young guys are better than who they're repalcing anyhow. So make this season about the development of Estrada, Gomez, Lucroy, Narveson, Axford, Braddock, maybe others like Peralta,Gamel, Capuano, and Cain.

 

I would be ok with that. Let's figure out which guys in that list can fill roles in 2011, rather than get every last ounce out of guys like Edmunds, Hoffman, Suppan, and Davis.

[TooLiveBrew]

Well, I feel better today. Do I think this team can be a legit playoff contender this year? I do not. But at least they're finally making moves based on talent rather than money and "respecting veterans."

 

Yeah, I agree completely. It feels good today, and honestly that has nothing to do with the win last night. I also liked how LouisEly put it in "Anyone else seeing big changes ahead?" discussion:

 

Wasn't this kind of what many people were advocating - send down the higher ceiling guys with options and keep the guys with no options, and if the guys with no options fail or get hurt they have a backup plan.

 

Well, it's time for the backup plan.

 

 

It's definitely nice to have the higher upside guys to turn to. I'll watch with interest to see how Ken Macha handles having all this youth on his team. I kinda suspect he's wriggling a bit on the inside, having to trust these whippersnappers to get the job done. It's going to be great to watch a team comprised of Axford, Narveson, Parra, Estrada, Lucroy, Braddock, Yo, Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Escobar, McGehee, Gomez, etc. I'm not as down on Davis as some/many, but there's certainly no need to rush him back. Given his situation, I'd say that's a very nice luxury to have.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I think you have the wrong link TLB...it goes back to this thread.

[TooLiveBrew]

Thanks SoCal. Fixed.

[craigharmann]

Braddock isn't up yet......I'm demoralized because it still means Soup and Vargas have a spot on the Brewers roster.

[FVBrewerFan]

I'm demoralized because the Twins are going to kill the Brewers with or without Lucroy or Braddock.

[rluzinski]

I'm demoralized because the Twins are going to kill the Brewers with or without Lucroy or Braddock.

I hope that's just your emotions talking. If the Brewers win the series, it's not going to be some epic upset. Baseball just doesn't work that way. Vegas gives the the Brewers a 40% shot at winning tonight and with Gallardo going tomorrow, that might even be slight favorites. But if you think Vegas is just wrong, there's money to be made!