Ryan Howard signs 5 year/$125 mil extension

[endaround]

Capuano had a 4 win season for the Brewers. Davis had a 4 win season for the Brewers. Bush had a 3.8 win season. Pods had a 3.4 win season. Overbay was an above average player, Lee was an above average player, Ohka was an above average player during his time here.

[Rhett16]

This contract, however bad it is for the Phillies, and I do believe they made a mistake, makes it pretty clear to me that the Brewers have literally 0% chance to keep Fielder. It kills me to say it because I love the big guy, but I also realize the situation as well. That being said, we may as well start looking to trade Fielder pretty soon. After the first 20 games or so of the year, I don't think we have the pitching at all to make the playoffs. With no chance of keeping Fielder, and very little chance of making any playoff run, I wouldn't mind seeing us try to take advantage of some other teams who would love to get Prince. Boston has to be getting to a point of near desperation now where they'd maybe overpay us for Fielder. Even Tampa Bay may decide to really try and make an all out push for this year due to their hot start and give us a little more than we expect for the guy. San Diego will unload Gonzalez soon enough, and when they do that's one less possible trading partner. If losing Fielder is inevitable, and that is how it looks to me, we may as well deal with that sooner rather than later. The money saved from a Prince deal could go toward extending Weeks, McGehee, etc.

[Invader3K]

You just won't see them deal Fielder in April or May, even if the team is 10 games under .500. The team's budget is too dependent on ticket sales, and they won't risk tanking sales for the rest of the year by dealing Prince early. If it gets to be mid-June or so, and the team doesn't look competitive, I think Melvin will start seriously fielding offers.

[logan82]

If the Brewers are 10 games under .500 I think ticket sales will tank Fielder or not.

 

 

Weeks is already on the team so I wasn't counting him as a replacement for Prince's production.

 

I wasn't counting on Weeks replacing Fielder's production either. It will prevent a drop off in production at the 2B spot and allow us to move Lawrie to a more favorable defensive position or to another team for players.

 

 

The other thing to consider is the marketing that comes with mid-level players as opposed to that one superstar.

 

We have Gallardo and Braun for superstars already. I think many of the "same old Brewers" fans will be placated by the long contracts that we gave to Braun and Gallardo. I don't think they will realize we only gained a couple years of time from either.

[PeaveyFury]

and maybe 5 average or below position players.

 

How does that break down, out of curiosity?

[FVBrewerFan]

The other thing to consider is the marketing that comes with mid-level players as opposed to that one superstar.

Doesn't Braun qualify as a superstar? He even used the song for his walk-up im the past.

 

[Invader3K]

Interesting analysis from a site I hadn't seen before:

 

At age 30, Howard is likely already past his peak. His top three similar batters through age 29 are Richie Sexson, Cecil Fielder, and Mo Vaughn. All were ineffective by age 33 and out of baseball by age 35. Fielder will turn 26 this season – his top similar batters through age 25 are Juan Gonzalez, Eddie Murray, and Jim Rice. All were excellent hitters through at least age 32.

 

So yeah, based on comparable players, I think it's safe to say Fielder will be much better than Howard for the next 6-7 years. Though as the article argues, even Prince isn't worth a deal like Howard's, or especially one that will probably eclipse his.