Ryan Howard signs 5 year/$125 mil extension

[endaround]

I don't see teams going more than 5 years. The cubs don't match up in timeline because there is no way the Brwers will trade Fielder to the Cubs and they need a 1B after this season and so Lee will likely be back on 2-3 year deal. Ike Davis needs to fail for the Mets to be interested. The Red Sox won't want Fielder at 1B over Youkilis and Dunn or Berkman are better values at DH. The Dodgers make the most sense but theri ownership makes everything up in the air. The Nationals could try making a splash.

[And That]

You have to keep in mind that Scott Boras is pretty loathe to have one of his guys sign an extension when there is even the slightest chance there might be something better on the open market. Boras might even be willing to have Fielder sign a big 1 year deal with someone and then go it again the following year.

[Ennder]

I could see the Orioles go after him. That would match up well with all their young pitching starting to hit their stride. They also have a lot of good hitters but no big stud power guy.

[MilwaukeeCounsell]

http://www.fangraphs.com/...e-the-phillies-thinking/

 

Thoughts from the guys at Fangraphs

 

And Keith Law's take: "This is one of the worst extension of its kind -- it's an overpay in both years and dollars. Howard is one of the last guys in the middle of the lineup I'd give that kind of money, too. He's 30, has a bad body, is not a good defender, and has struggled to make contact to versus lefties -- he's gone backwards in that area over the past couple of years. If you were locking him up through age 31, it's not so bad. How happy are if you're Albert Pujols? If Howard is worth $25 million, Pujols is worth $50 million a year."

 

I agree about Pujols. As much as Cards fans want to think Pujols will sign a hometown "discount," you've got to believe his agent will seek more than the $25 million given to a guy with a worse skill set.

[wishicouldhit]

Does any one know how the current FSNwi tv contract financially compares to other tv contracts in the MLB and how do the TV ratings compare vs the other MLB markers? If I remember correct, last june the brewers were middle of the pack in TV rating.

[Invader3K]

They've kept the terms of the new TV deal pretty secret. I haven't seen anything detailing the actual financial parameters or length of the deal.

 

I do think this deal is bad for the Phillies...it's an extension, it doesn't even start next year. It starts in 2012. Also, there is a sixth year option for $23 million with a whopping $10 million buyout. However, I think the same deal would be fine for Fielder if it started next season, just based on how much younger Fielder is.

 

Edit: I guess the buyout is being included in the $125 million figure, so that's not quite so bad...but Howard is still older and will start declining sooner than later.

[Mr QL]

I'd do 5 years 125 mil for Prince any day.

[Beast Light]

Its time for this team to start thinking ahead. I love Prince Fielder but we just can't afford to keep him. Trade him in the offseason and make sure we get as much pitching back as possible. Preferably Major League ready pitching or some very good AAA talent.

 

Move Gamel to 1st base now so he can start getting reps. May want to do the same thing with Lawrie as the competition may be good for Mat. If Weeks has a good healthy year, extend him. Taylor Green can break into the majors as a utility man/insurance policy should McGehee fall off.

 

I know we all love and want to keep Prince but this is a business and emotions can't get in the way. We have a business model that will only work if we stick to it.

[Invader3K]

Move Gamel to 1st base now so he can start getting reps. May want to do the same thing with Lawrie as the competition may be good for Mat. If Weeks has a good healthy year, extend him. Taylor Green can break into the majors as a utility man/insurance policy should McGehee fall off.

 

I know we all love and want to keep Prince but this is a business and emotions can't get in the way. We have a business model that will only work if we stick to it.

I'm not against these steps at all. It's no secret that a guy like Joe Koshansky isn't going to be the successor to Prince. However, once he's healthy, having Mat Gamel start taking reps at 1B could at least send a message to Boras that, "Sorry, we want to keep him, but we're making alternative plans."

 

Hopefully they are already talking to Weeks about a reasonable extension, and I'd love to see them lock up McGehee if he has another great season.

[Beast Light]

Move Gamel to 1st base now so he can start getting reps. May want to do the same thing with Lawrie as the competition may be good for Mat. If Weeks has a good healthy year, extend him. Taylor Green can break into the majors as a utility man/insurance policy should McGehee fall off.

 

I know we all love and want to keep Prince but this is a business and emotions can't get in the way. We have a business model that will only work if we stick to it.

I'm not against these steps at all. It's no secret that a guy like Joe Koshansky isn't going to be the successor to Prince. However, once he's healthy, having Mat Gamel start taking reps at 1B could at least send a message to Boras that, "Sorry, we want to keep him, but we're making alternative plans."

 

Hopefully they are already talking to Weeks about a reasonable extension, and I'd love to see them lock up McGehee if he has another great season.

I've heard talk on other boards about potentially moving Lawrie to 1B. Do you guys think this is reasonable? I'd imagine we would be wasting a certain amount of athleticism in doing that. I have never watched Lawrie play but it is my understanding that he is fairly athletic.

 

[RockCoCougars]

Considering the team is already spending 30% of their payroll on the garbage that is Suppan, Riske, and Hall, I'd have no problem doing the same with Prince. What else are they going to spend it on, the next soft tossing veteran starter coming off a career year and a middle reliever doing the same?

[TheCrew07]

Hopefully they are already talking to Weeks about a reasonable extension, and I'd love to see them lock up McGehee if he has another great season.

There is definitely quite a bit to like about McGehee and I'll admit he's my kind of player, he's a guy that gets the absolute most out of what he has. However, he's not a guy I'd sign to an extension, he's already at his ceiling. This offensive explosion out of nowhere... it's truly remarkable. However, he's 27 and already maxed out, he's a guy I'd go year to year with, we'll already own his rights past 30, and that's all I'm basically looking for out of any young player, and he's not so young, not is his talent elite.

 

I'm honestly not sure what to make of McGehee, I've been cautiously optimistic about him, players just don't do what he's done thus far, it's very rare. His early success again this season virtually guarantees that Gamel will never get a shot to stick at 3B. Maybe Ennder has been right all along and Gamel is the 1B of the future, I think Gamel would be an excellent defensive 1B, and I still believe he's a .900+ OPS player at his peak. I don't see moving Gamel to the OF at this point, we have plenty of depth in the OF long term. We also have Chris Dennis who I really like and has been converted to 1B so we do have a couple of options if Fielder is moved..

 

As far as Fielder is concerned, if the Brewers aren't a playoff team with him, then I think prospects are much better value than draft picks. I will be horribly disappointed in Melvin if we end up with a single 1 and done in the post season with this first wave of talent, he would have bungled the situation miserably. A single playoff appearance has been my fear since the Sabathia trade, I'm just not able to get past this nagging feeling that we sacrificed multiple appearances for a single shot. I sincerely hope I'm proven wrong, but I just don't think this is a 88-90 win team unless our 2 most talented pitchers, Yo and Parra, both take their game to another level, or 3 in Parra's case. (BTW, Parra hitting 94 MPH again with his FB the other day made me smile). I just can't see the Brewers going 5/125 with any 1 player, and I think Prince will be looking at getting along the lines of 6/140 or 7/160. Someone will tack on years, and even though I don't think 25 per year is realistic for him, stranger things have happened in baseball. Regardless, the Brewers will never be able to compete with the years a large market team can offer.

[badgerfletch]

As soon as I heard Howard was signed I thought it put Prince right out of the Brewers' range. I think Boras is going to be pounding the table on the 8yr 200mil figure he put out there now, and will use this Howard deal to show that he's not asking too much ($25mil per/yr, Prince is younger). Prince probably won't get that deal, but I think it's almost guaranteed that they wait for free agency now. At that point someone will almost certainly out bid the Brewers, so trading seems the only option left.

[logan82]

I will look it up as I know I have posted it before but I think Mark A. alluded to us getting less than $10M per year from our TV contract which is the worst in baseball.

[rluzinski]

Considering the team is already spending 30% of their payroll on the garbage that is Suppan, Riske, and Hall, I'd have no problem doing the same with Prince. What else are they going to spend it on, the next soft tossing veteran starter coming off a career year and a middle reliever doing the same?

For $25 mil a year, they can get a couple players who project to be at least 5 games over .500. There are plenty of other free agents and plenty of areas that can be improved.

 

This extension is going to look terrible in a few years.

[BrewersSuperCollector]

Boras will have Prince go to free agency regardless of what Howard received. The Brewers could offer 30 million a year and I still think Boras would turn it down.

[Invader3K]

For $25 mil a year, they can get a couple players who project to be at least 5 games over .500. There are plenty of other free agents and plenty of areas that can be improved.

 

This extension is going to look terrible in a few years.

Yeah...that's the thing. You can sign a guy like Adam Dunn to play 1B, and even ace type starters can be had for $15 million a year (I think that's what Halladay is getting paid).

[rluzinski]

It's not like we are the Yankees and there are limited positions to upgrade. The Brewers have 3 below average starting pitchers and maybe 5 average or below position players. The idea that the Brewers NEED a 5 win player simply can't be defended. I love the big guy but if he wants 5/$125, no thanks.

[GAME05]

i didn't want Sabathia here for $100 million and I don't want Fielder here for that kind of money, either. mid-market teams that suddenly take a big-market approach to players don't have the finances to make that strategy successful and end up only doing it halfway--that only makes for modest success. you end up with a team made up of two or three superstars surrounded by absolute garbage. so whether or not Fielder would live up to that kind of money is irrelevant to me.

 

we're all crazy over how much Suppan's $12 million is hurting us, so how much would one or two bad years from a $25M guy hurt? For $20M, you can make a mistake with a Suppan but at least sign a Randy Wolf. Couldn't do that if one guy was paid all of it.

 

anybody regret not signing Richie Sexon to a long-term extension when we had the chance?

 

the thought of giving Fielder so much money is made worse by the fact that we don't have a handful of future pitching stars in AAA to make up for the good pitching FAs that we won't be able to afford to bring in.

[bucksbeat]

Again, Fielder has shown himself to be of little to no risk for injury. He's a prime candidate to sign and trade if need be in the future when financially the Brewers can't afford him anymore. I don't think this deal has much to do with what Fielder will get. Compared to Howard the only thing on Prince's side is his age. Howard has four straight years of at least 45 home runs and 136 RBIs. He has a ROY Award, Silver Slugger Award, NL MVP Award, NLCS MVP Award, is noticeably better defensively and isn't doesn't have the excessive weight.

[rluzinski]

Thode awards mean little. All that matters is future expected production. Age is everything in this case. The Phillies screwed up.

[bucksbeat]

I'd agree with you with any position other than a First Baseman.

[Funketown]

Just saw this one up on MLBTR and I was surprised to say the least. $25MM a year for a first baseman that probably won't age well is a bit of a stretch. If Fielder asks for anything near that, it would be wise let him walk.

[RyDogg66]

This contract starts in 2012. It could be terrible BEFORE it starts. What the hell is Philly thinking?

[PeaveyFury]

Yeah, it was bad enough before I heard that as well, RyDogg. Knowing its actually 5 years tacked on and they'll be paying him 25 million when he's going on 37 seems like a disaster waiting to happen.