Power 50 discussion -- Latest: September Power 50 now up!

[twobrewers]

That's a great list.

 

It's really hard to argue with much. A few that I would have adjusted a spot or two - but otherwise I agree.

 

No one from the 2010 draft is in the top 20. Ouch.

[Tedaldtada]

That's a great list.

 

It's really hard to argue with much. A few that I would have adjusted a spot or two - but otherwise I agree.

 

No one from the 2010 draft is in the top 20. Ouch.

 

 

I just went back and re-read the latest P50. Our system is so, so deep with guys that profile as above average. That is huge when you can combine them with the 3 studs at the top (Lawrie, Odorizzi, Gamel). And twobrewers, I think that is why no draftees crack the top 20. Obviously, Covey would have but that in no way was the organization's fault.

[And That]

Sunday morning new Power 50! Aka "The One Where Mat Gamel Finally Got His One At Bat."

 

Last one until after the winter meetings. Enjoy!

[ramssuperbowl99]

Good list guys! Alot of it I agree with, specifically the big bumps that Tyler Thornburg and Jimmy Nelson got. I don't think I would have Jeffress or Braddock that high, simply because they are both looking more and more like relievers. Mark Rogers as the best of the "non-Odorizzi starters" makes alot of sense to me given his upside and the fact that he could make the MLB roster out of spring training if everything breaks right.

A few guys that I think are underrated are Cody Scarpetta, who has upside similar to Rogers and had a nice year in the FSL. I'd have him above Heckathorn, Rivas, and Peralta, and probably somewhere around 5 or 6 on the overall list. Striking out more than a guy per inning says alot about Scarpetta's stuff, and (in general) I'd much rather have to deal with a prospect that has MLB stuff which can miss bats than have a guy with nice command and little upside. I'd have Tyler Roberts a fair bit higher, as being named the 4th best prospect in the AZL is a pretty big accomplishment. Same with Cody Hawn, who lit up rookie league pitching. An assignment to A ball is inevitable, and he could move quickly through the system.

Any chance we see Tyler Roberts in A ball on an aggressive assignment next season? Garfield is likely to repeat the level, but Roberts was so good this year and you'd think the Brewers would want to give him more ABs. I think the T-Rats could have a pretty formidable lineup next year. Not to mention a pretty good rotation.

Also, any takers on how far Thornburg moves up the system? If his arm is healthy and the Brewers commit to him as a bullpen guy (they should, IMO) then he could make it to AA. Maybe even get a cup of coffee.

I guess I can finish with my personal Brewers top 10:

1. Brett Lawrie - No brainer, don't see him leaving this spot until he graduates to the big leagues.

2. Jacob Odorizzi - Still low in the system, but could reach AA as a 21 year old next year. Has big league stuff and good fastball command, needs to work on the secondary stuff, but could be a #2.

3. Lorenzo Cain - He's in the MLB already, so we know the floor is high. He has the ceiling of an above average CF, especially if his defense grades out as MLB average.

4. Mark Rogers - Good debut for Mark. The fastball command needs to improve, but nobody is low on his stuff. The idea that he might be a bullpen arm is looking less and less likely. He's turning into the #3 starter the Brewers have needed for so long, and if he throws strikes, he could be better than that.

5. Cody Scarpetta - Similar to Rogers, but without the same velocity and high floor. Scarpetta looks ready to cement his prospect status at AA, and an improvement in command could lead to huge numbers. A breakout candidate on the prospect map next year, and not just in terms of Brewers' prospects.

6. Jeremy Jeffress - He's looking like a career bullpen guy, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. He profiles as a top 10 closer in baseball, and between Axford, Braddock and Jeffress, the Brewers shouldn't buy any bullpen arms for a long time.

7. Wily Peralta - Scouts love the fastball, and the command has been pretty good. Peralta's K/9 numbers might disappoint some, but if his secondary stuff jumps up a notch, as it should, I'd expect the K's to come roaring back. Learning how to pitch for wormburners is a valuable skill.

8. Kyle Heckathorn - Big body, good velocity, better command than we thought. Not sure why the K's aren't piling in, but as long as he keeps getting grounders, he'll keep profiling as a #3/4. Consistent performer, should move quickly.

9. Kentrail Davis - Injuries killed his power, but he showed a great approach (.380 OBP in the FSL says something!). If the power comes back and he can play a good RF, the Brewers might really have something.

10. Zach Braddock - He's been in the big leagues basically all year, but still hasn't graduated. The stuff is there, but he doesn't quite have the fastball of a top closer. Should be a great 8th inning guy.

HM: Tyler Thornburg, Scooter Gennett

[And That]

I agree that it is likely Garfield repeats his assignment, though I don't see Tyler Roberts starting out in full season ball. They've taken it so slowly with him so far, I imagine they'll keep him in line behind Garfield for the time being. To me, it's highly unlikely Garfield and Roberts would be on the same team. The guy I think that will be catching in Brevard is someone who just missed my personal top 50 list, Rafael Neda. Neda is an advanced defensive catcher and is older than either Garfield or Roberts.

[ramssuperbowl99]

I agree that it is likely Garfield repeats his assignment, though I don't see Tyler Roberts starting out in full season ball. They've taken it so slowly with him so far, I imagine they'll keep him in line behind Garfield for the time being. To me, it's highly unlikely Garfield and Roberts would be on the same team. The guy I think that will be catching in Brevard is someone who just missed my personal top 50 list, Rafael Neda. Neda is an advanced defensive catcher and is older than either Garfield or Roberts.

That's too bad with Roberts. I think they could split time, and I'd rather see Roberts get some full season ABs. He keeps proving himself to the Brewers staff, both last year and this year, and they haven't seemed too responsive. I wish they were more aggressive with him. Neda didn't play at all this season (though I'm not sure why- do you have info on that?) and a FSL league assignment would be tough. That might work out, and he has the defense already, but man, if he hits in the FSL, he'd rocket up the Power 50.

This is a very good problem to have, but between Garfield, Roberts and Neda we have 3 catchers for 2 full season spots. I guess Roberts is the odd man out on that list. Downside of having a catcher pipeline?

[And That]

Neda signed a little late, but he did have 47 ABs between Arizona and Helena.

[colbyjack]

Rogers and Scarpetta aren't very similar to me. Rogers is a very good, loose overall athlete, while Scarpetta is a more sturdily built, barrel-chested hurler, and as noted Scarpetta's stuff isn't as electric. I do agree that he could very well leap-frog several of the other pitchers on this list with a big year at AA next year.

 

I agree with Toby that Neda could be promoted past Garfield, who should repeat low-A. Neda's D' is good enough to play just about anywhere, including Milwaukee. I think you're right that the full catching pipeline likely will keep Roberts at Helena next summer, unless they do bump up Garfield one level and push Neda all the way up to AA. Garfield just hasn't been very good at the plate, and I would hate to see his confidence destroyed at BC.

[ramssuperbowl99]

Rogers and Scarpetta aren't very similar to me. Rogers is a very good, loose overall athlete, while Scarpetta is a more sturdily built, barrel-chested hurler, and as noted Scarpetta's stuff isn't as electric. I do agree that he could very well leap-frog several of the other pitchers on this list with a big year at AA next year.

 

I agree with Toby that Neda could be promoted past Garfield, who should repeat low-A. Neda's D' is good enough to play just about anywhere, including Milwaukee. I think you're right that the full catching pipeline likely will keep Roberts at Helena next summer, unless they do bump up Garfield one level and push Neda all the way up to AA. Garfield just hasn't been very good at the plate, and I would hate to see his confidence destroyed at BC.

I didn't mean that Rogers and Scarpetta are similar in terms of body build, they couldn't really be much different there, I just meant similar in terms of upside. I see each as a potential #3, but a #2 if everything breaks right. That's where the comparison came from. They also each have the best pure stuff in the system - Odorizzi is in that conversation too, but that's how I see them as similar.

And they can't throw a C like Garfield into the FSL. I could see if it was a hitter friendly environment, but let's not pretend that he doesn't have enough to learn defensively and offensively in Wisconsin. Optimally, he plays really well in the beginning of the year and justifies a quicker promotion so that Roberts can get some A ball ABs before the season's end, but that might be asking a fair bit.

I don't know if this is normal on these forums, but it might be a fun exercise to take all our guys on the Power 50 and give them projected assignments. Is that a thread worthy topic?

 

[LouisEly]

All in all, great job, hard to argue too much with any of the slots.

 

I'll cast my vote for the one guy being overlooked - Corey Frerichs. Sure he was a late pick and a little old, however he lost almost all of 2009 to injury. But if you look at what his combined numbers were in 2008 and 2010 between both levels of A-ball: 159 IP, 116 H, 171 K. Walks a little high (75), but had a better BB:IP ratio in 2010 than 2008, >1K/IP and a great H:IP ratio, and he assumed BCs closer role. Not a high prospect, but given the success of McClendon someone I could easily see as having as much potential as those in the 35-50 range.

[uwisfan]

I would say Rogers is easily a #1 if everything breaks right for him. If he can stay healthy and gain control of the movement on his pitches, I dont see any reason that he wouldnt be a #1.

[twobrewers]

I'd have Mark Rogers at #2. He has control issues - but no one has been able to put his pitches in play. He might struggle to go deep into games, but at least he is a starter. Jeffress is a good relief pitcher, but Axford is still likely to be the closer.

Jeffress' velocity has been a disappointment so far. He was sitting around 93 or 94 mph on the stadium gun today while pitching in relief.

I know it is a part of most minor league systems, but I grow weary of hearing about players "who might have to be moved".

[colbyjack]

I don't know if this is normal on these forums, but it might be a fun exercise to take all our guys on the Power 50 and give them projected assignments. Is that a thread worthy topic?

 

Toby already beat me to mentioning his usual excellent projections of next year's rosters.

 

Jeffress' velocity has been a disappointment so far. He was sitting around 93 or 94 mph on the stadium gun today while pitching in relief.

 

It's not set in stone that Jeffress is going to continue to work as a reliever, as he very well could return to a starting role. It's been stated all year that the move to the bullpen was to give Jeffress more regular work so he doesn't fall back onto bad habits. I've actually been impressed with his command, and if he was 93-94 today, that is the lowest I've seen him since his callup. His first game he was 96-98 and he's been 94-97 since.

[thebruce44]

I'd have Mark Rogers at #2. He has control issues - but no one has been able to put his pitches in play. He might struggle to go deep into games, but at least he is a starter. Jeffress is a good relief pitcher, but Axford is still likely to be the closer.

 

Agreed. I have been very impressed by Mark in the small amount I have seen of him. I think he will get the chance to put it all togeather at AAA to start next year and he will have the confidence of knowing that his stuff can get MLB hitters out. Now when he takes that final step it will be huge. There are no other prospects in the system, in my opinion, who could make a similar impact at the MLB level, especially as soon as he may be up.

 

[thebruce44]

Jeffress' velocity has been a disappointment so far. He was sitting around 93 or 94 mph on the stadium gun today while pitching in relief.

 

It's not set in stone that Jeffress is going to continue to work as a reliever, as he very well could return to a starting role. It's been stated all year that the move to the bullpen was to give Jeffress more regular work so he doesn't fall back onto bad habits. I've actually been impressed with his command, and if he was 93-94 today, that is the lowest I've seen him since his callup. His first game he was 96-98 and he's been 94-97 since.

Yea, his average Fastball speed is 95.5 right now according to pitchfx. And on the 24th, when throwing 57 pitches, his 47 fastballs had an avg velocity of 95.2 mph.

 

[twobrewers]

colbyjack had me doubting myself!

 

I went back and looked at the Pitchfx from yesterday's game. Jeffress hit 94 once out of 10 pitches. Most were 93 or 92 mph.

 

I know I've seen him hit 97 as well, but for a kid who was suppose to be hitting 100 in high school, I've been disappointed.

[trwi7]

He's averaging 96 on his fastball this year. Why would you be disappointed with that?

[uwisfan]

Jeffress was sitting at 97-99 for 8(?) straight pitches in his previous 2-inning stint.

[Tedaldtada]

An incredibly deep list. Nice job guys.

[TooLiveBrew]

Thanks for the hard work on this, as always. The one thing that stands out to me at this point is that the Brewers need more bats in the system. At this point, it seems to me that it's Lawrie, Kentrail Davis, and then everyone else.

 

One nit-picky issue -- Komatsu isn't 23 yet, if his birthdate is correct on his BF profile. I feel more excited about his 2010 campaign given that it was in his age-22 season.

[CheezWizHed]

I know I've seen him hit 97 as well, but for a kid who was suppose to be hitting 100 in high school, I've been disappointed.

 

I'm no scout, but I've heard enough pitchers that "hit 100 in high school" to know:

1) That probably meant once or twice when he was amped up for a scout

2) He generally won't pitch a game at that speed.

3) Fastball speeds generally fluctuate during the year and from start to start.

4) He probably has no control at 100 MPH.

 

I'd rather see him at 95 MPH with control than 100MPH and being "just a bit outside"

[And That]

Cain graduated off the Power 50 with his first official AB tonight. Congrats, Lo!

 

In case you're wondering... if Cain had graduated before this last edition of the Power 50 went online, Lucas Luetge would have been #50.

[brewfan1]

Once again, unless Garfield has somekind of serious injury coming out of Spring Training, he will be bumped up to Brevard. The club really believes in Garfield and likes the way he conducts himself on and off the field. While Garfield's hitting is a work in progress, he is still very advanced defensively for his age. He will need to prove that he can throw out a greater % of runners, but if you look at the way that Wisconsin handled their pitchers this season, you will see that both catchers had trouble with runners due to the pitching staff concentrating on throwing strikes and not holding runners on well at all. When an organization has a P/C team such as Garfield and Oddorizzi, they will usually move them together, especially after the only no hitter that was called and thrown in the entire system this season. Garfield has already put weight back on and is doing very well in Arizona (Junior Fall League) with Dykstra, Gennett, K.Davis, C. Davis, Dennis, Morris etc... and all the while still catching Odorizzi. Garfield is still only 19 and will continue to grow and put on mature muscle mass as he gets older. It's all about nutrition and being that Garfield just completed his first full season (reaching organizational goal of catching 100 plus games) he now has an idea of true travel on the road and why eating correctly is so important to maintain optimal weight, strength and conditioning. I also imagine that Todd Durkin (Fitness Quest 10) has an awesome plan to build Garfield better for next season.

[greeg35]

Coach, is that you?

[brewfan1]

Yes, my son