Power 50 discussion -- Latest: September Power 50 now up!

[TooLiveBrew]

That is one depressing Power 50. Way too much downward movement. It's amazing that the whole organization seems to be having such an unexpectedly down season so far. I guess the good news in that sense is that there's not really anywhere else to go but up.

 

Here's hoping Gamel & Salome get back on track, and other top prospects step their games up too. Nice work on the list, fellas.

[Gobias Industries]

Battlekow answered my question about Lawrie's mysteriously low LD % that I asked back on the first page. I don't know if it was just a coincidence, but either way, thank you and nice job on the list!

 

As others have said, this is kind of a depressing Power 50. I like Lucroy as much as the next guy, but he seems like a weak #1 overall prospect. We need some guys to have big second halves (I'm looking at you, Arnett).

[homer]

Via View From Bernie's Chalet, here's Keith Law on Brewers pitching prospects:

Jason (Germantown, WI)

 

Klaw, which

pitcher in the Brewers system has the highest ceiling? Eric Arnett, Jake Odorizzi or

Wily Peralta?

 

Klaw

(1:42 PM)

 

Peralta.

That means it's probably Odorizzi. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

 

As for the P50, I think Meadows should be on there some place. Maybe doesn't have the upside but he's putting up really solid numbers this year.

[battlekow]

Battlekow answered my question about Lawrie's mysteriously low LD % that I asked back on the first page. I don't know if it was just a coincidence, but either way, thank you and nice job on the list!

Cain also has a very low line drive rate. It might be a classification thing.

[twobrewers]

Salome has medical issues that prevent a very large road block to him contributing to the Milwaukee Brewers.

Jeffress has drug issues that prevent a very large road block to him contributing to the Milwaukee Brewers.

 

Both have upside. I believe both have about the same shot of contributing. I think Jeffress is being punished for stupidity - while we are sympathetic to Salome's plight. I'm not sure I agree with Salome being ranked #9 while Jeffress is pushed all the way to #21.

[battlekow]

Salome has medical issues that prevent a very large road block to him contributing to the Milwaukee Brewers.

Jeffress has drug issues that prevent a very large road block to him contributing to the Milwaukee Brewers.

 

Both have upside. I believe both have about the same shot of contributing. I think Jeffress is being punished for stupidity - while we are sympathetic to Salome's plight. I'm not sure I agree with Salome being ranked #9 while Jeffress is pushed all the way to #21.

The point is that we're not dinging Salome for being, at this point, third on the organizational depth chart at catcher for the next four years; the performance of other players at a player's position--his "blocked-ness"--isn't taken into account when rating them as a prospect. On the other hand, Jeffress' situation is almost like that of a player with a very checkered medical history, like say Mark Rogers. The fact that he could be suspended for life at any moment essentially, just as Rogers' shoulder could blow up on any given pitch, affects his intrinsic prospect status. You can never trust that player's performance as much as you could a player with a clean medical/drug history.

[TooLiveBrew]

Good explanation, battlekow. I'd add that part of why I thought he was lower is that he's been off for so long. Beyond the possibility that his body wouldn't be physically ready for a full workload (obviously he's had the forearm issue), there's the issue of being away from game action for so long. I don't have any problem with Jeffress having to earn his way back up the P50. I think we'll see him in the top 10 again very soon.

[filthyfrog]

The other big difference between Salome and Jeffress is that Salome has performed well when he's been on the field and Jeffress has not. Even if you take away the drug concerns, Jeffress is a thrower with no command. In his best season he walked 4.5 batters per nine innings. He obviously has great stuff, but the performance is a long way from the potential and he's failed at both attempts to crack AA so far.

[twobrewers]

I'd just say that Salome has never received much recognition nationally as a prospect. Jeffress was once fairly highly regards on Top 100 lists. It is hard to argue with Salome's minor league success - but I don't know of any national scouts that speak highly of him.

 

Beyond the possibility that his body wouldn't be physically ready for a full workload (obviously he's had the forearm issue), there's the issue of being away from game action for so long.

I could be wrong, because I have no idea how Jeffress spent his suspension - but I would imagine he has stayed in top shape and continued his development with or without game experience.

[Mass Haas]

And on the 7th day, the Lord said, "Let there be a new Power 50".

[dadofandrew]

Scooter is top ten minimum, maybe top 5. He's a middle INF with pop, 20, in his first year of pro ball. If he would not been considered a tough sign, he'd have been a top pick and be far, far higher.

[igor67]

How about this for a Cutter comment: doing everything we kept waiting for Josh Murrary and Brent Brewer to do.

 

I agreed with the comments on relief prospects. Hopefully this year really emboldens Melvin to de-emphasize veteran relievers, which will free up a lot of money for elsewhere on the diamond. I think there is still pretty good depth to the list, but I doubt if the Brewers will find themselves with a top 5 system anytime soon again. I think that is OK because if you look at the current top 10 it's filled with guys who have been called up. The biggest reason I don't see us climbing so high again is that we seem to be in a mode to continue calling up a few of the best guys every year, instead of waiting on a bumper crop to all come up at once. I see no problem with that, and the Twins and Braves have been doing it that way generally for quite awhile.

[wibadgers23]

Thanks for the hard work in putting this together. Just wondering why there is such a significant gap between Peralta and Scarpetta though?

[tyguy20204]

Yes, I agree with Al, Gennett is much too low.

 

And I would place Josh Butler higher as well. I think it's easy to forget how good of a year he had last season. Yes, he still walked too many, but 7K/9 with nearly a 2.0 GB/FO ratio is pretty competent. This season he's been a bit rusty after coming back from injury, but he's started to show signs of life.

 

I would definitely have him above Jimmy Nelson and Nick Bucci, likely others as well.

[TooLiveBrew]

The question I have with Gennett is whether or not he'll ever be thick/strong enough to hit with power at the higher levels. The guy is absolutely tiny.

 

Is that (overall ceiling) why he's not in the top 10? Could also be that he's not anything special on defense.

[Funketown]

I was not aware that Gennett was rumored to be looking for a large bonus. Does anybody know what type of bonus he ended up receiving from the Crew?

 

It's hard not to drool at these numbers from a 2B:

 

.325/.375/.494/.869

 

No need to fast track him with Lawrie around, so hopefully he's allowed to finish the year at A. That and I'm hoping to watch him the next time the Rattlers come to Cedar Rapids.

[battlekow]

Scooter is top ten minimum, maybe top 5. He's a middle INF with pop, 20, in his first year of pro ball. If he would not been considered a tough sign, he'd have been a top pick and be far, far higher.

What you're really saying is that if Scooter's current line was his final line--if he continues doing what he's done up to this point through the end of the year--he's a top-ten prospect. And you'll almost certainly be right, but it's only July.

Just

wondering why there is such a significant gap between Peralta and

Scarpetta though?

Speaking for myself only, I think Peralta has an edge in stuff and control. Obviously, the results haven't borne out the former so far this year, but there's also the danger of letting Scarpetta's recent run of dominance too heavily affect his ranking.

[Never Outhustled]

Scooter is top ten minimum, maybe top 5. He's a middle INF with pop, 20, in his first year of pro ball. If he would not been considered a tough sign, he'd have been a top pick and be far, far higher.

 

Rating a preospect on stats alone would be sloppy and haphazard. Gennet has been great, but physical tools will be tested at higher levels. He is in the proper spot.

 

My only complaint would be that Cutter Dykstra is 19 spots too low. His solid and constantly improving production combined with his explosive body and work ethic make him a future MLB 2B.

[tyguy20204]

Rating a preospect on stats alone would be sloppy and haphazard. Gennet has been great, but physical tools will be tested at higher levels. He is in the proper spot.

 

My only complaint would be that Cutter Dykstra is 19 spots too low. His solid and constantly improving production combined with his explosive body and work ethic make him a future MLB 2B.

Perhaps people, including myself, are overrating Gennett, but you are overrating Dykstra. I'm not sure why you would consider his body "explosive." Plus, where are you getting this about his work ethic? And defensive reports have been terrible...

 

And don't get me wrong, I like Dykstra. But he has just as many questions as Gennett.

[igor67]

Are Gennet and Dykstra an argument for Lawrie at 3rd? I still think Gamel can come around, but he needs a John Olerud type target at first in my opinion to help him overcome the throwing issue enough to let his range become the bigger story. I'm just not optimistic that will happen.

[Never Outhustled]

 

I'm not sure why you would consider his body "explosive."

Personal observation, I've seem him play numerous times the last 2 years, and pre-draft testing. He finished top in athletic testing at the Area Code games, which included numerous 1st round picks who are considered top athletes.

 

 

Plus, where are you getting this about his work ethic?

Comments from his coaches.

 

And don't get me wrong, I like Dykstra. But he has just as many questions as Gennett.

I said he should be 19 spots higher, which still has him behind Gennet, so I don't know why you even mention Gennett. My only mention of Gennett was disagreeing with Al's idea that Gennett belongs in the top 5.

[TooLiveBrew]

Dykstra hasn't been good in the field, what makes you think he could handle 2B?

[homer]

I realize you bumped Khris Davis 13 spots but I think he should even be a little higher. Are you holding back because he's 22 in A ball? I'd love to see a promotion for him (once he recovers from the HBP injury) to see what he can do against better competition.

[tyguy20204]

I said he should be 19 spots higher, which still has him behind Gennet, so I don't know why you even mention Gennett. My only mention of Gennett was disagreeing with Al's idea that Gennett belongs in the top 5.

Fair enough on all your observations. I mentioned Gennett because I feel that you are overrating Dykstra, just as you accuse others of overrating Gennett. I said as much. Different people use different methods to analyze these prospects, there is no perfect method.

 

I see that you didn't choose to refute my point about Cutter's defense. We'll see how he develops, but lacking the skills to play a competent outfield is not a good sign for his prowess at this part of the game. Oh, and I do realize that an outfield position and 2B are vastly different in terms of what skills are required to play them. *Edit - And I honestly do not remember if he gave up on playing just CF, or if he could not handle a corner spot either.

[homer]

From the BFan interview with Kevin Goldstein earlier this year:

 

BF: Okay, last guy—holding out any hope for Cutter Dykstra?

 

KG: Zero. Easily the most disappointing guy on the team. Just horrible at third base with both mental and physical errors, bad footwork, not much of a hitter, and he's not a runner anymore, that's the real concern. Scout had him at 4.25 [seconds] to first base last night, and he was booking it trying to beat out a ground ball. So max effort and he's average. I just don't see anything there, and I can't find a scout who does either.

 

 

So he's either hurt, lost a step, or was dogging it.