Power 50 discussion -- Latest: September Power 50 now up!

[BADGERJOBOB]

A little disappointed in our minor leaguers as I don't think any of our minor leaguers are untouchables. Its great that we have a lot of depth but we have very very few potential star players. I don't see a Prince, Braun or Yo type player that is a step away from making a huge impact in the majors. Braddock might be able to step in as a closer and thats it. Lucroy, Gamel and Lawrie all have shortcomings and are not projected as star players.

 

If I was Melvin I would have to seriously look at trading Prince if we could get 1 legit potential future star player thats a year away and I would package any and a large quantity of my current minor leaguers for a legit younger upper echlon player that would get paid less than Prince (What would a Braddock, Lawrie/Gamel, Lucroy based package get you?). We have the depth to slot in equally talented replacements that might be only one additional year out.

[MJLiverock]

But I disagree with the depth view. Sure the upper echelon isn't as high as we had in the past, but I think the group rated as 6-28 is pretty tight in terms of talent. You could probably change people 5 spots in that group and not blink an eye. That is where your depth comes from. A deep group of players that project to average MLB talent.

 

Rather than looking at them 1-50 (when comparing to previous Power50s), looking at them as A,B,C prospects would show a higher number of B and high C type prospects than in the past, IMO.

What you're seeing a strength - - depth, others are seeing as a weakness meaning nothing special in terms of talent, just guys to fill out the ML roster. Your line about a deep group of players that project to average MLB talent is my main problem. Average talent begets average production and average records. Having 3 or 4 guys project to be average middle infielders or 4-5 guys project to be average OF's doesn't get a team too far. Only a few will be able to play in the majors and the rest aren't going to bring back much in trade because they are, well, average. To me a high C prospect wouldn't even be a prospect really, just a guy who may see the majors as journeyman back up if at all.

 

There seems to be a definite lack of impact players in the minors right now for the Brewers. Hopefully a few of the pitchers like Odorrizzi can put up some good numbers and start to look like an above average major leaguer. Jeffress has that high ceiling ability that hopefuly can be developed. Since the pitching takes time, there may be some hope there for impactful players to emerge. The team needs to develop a front line starter to go with Yo, not more 4 or 5 slot guys. Man, how I cringe everytime someone excuses Bush, Davis, Parra, Narveson, Suppan as being average for a 4 or 5 starter because that is 3 or 4 too many guys being the 4 or 5 level starter.

 

I agree it isn't the worst thing in the world to have a number of guys to look to for someone to emerge from, if LuCroy can keep up his hitting it will be nice to have major league catcher who can actually get on base and hit a double once in a while (Zaun's last night aside). Gamel's lost some of his shine since last year, if his upside is Lyle Overbay he is decent but not a great player. Lawrie is a man without a position for now it seems, he may be destined for the OF but will his bat play in a corner spot? That seems to be my question, will Gamel/Lawrie hit enough to be average for a 1B and corner OF'er? These are the two biggest bats in the minors and may end up being below average in the majors for their eventual positions.

[homer]

The thing that has me somewhat excited is that the high ceiling guys haven't hit their ceiling (Cain, Lawrie, most pitchers) and the guys that were putting up numbers that people said might not be sustainable because they didn't have a high ceiling are still putting up numbers (T Green, Gindl to name two).

[logan82]

If all these guys who are depth can be average MLB players we are in good shape. All you need is a team of average guys with a couple guys who are stars to have a pretty good team. The problem is that most of our depth probably will not be average at the MLB level.

 

Lawrie is a man without a position for now it seems, he may be destined for the OF but will his bat play in a corner spot? That seems to be my question, will Gamel/Lawrie hit enough to be average for a 1B and corner OF'er? These are the two biggest bats in the minors and may end up being below average in the majors for their eventual positions.

 

I don't think the average corner outfielder hits as well as you think. Neither do 1B. If either can play above average defense they will pretty easily be above average for either position. Gamel put up a .338/.422/.760 line and generally was considered to have not hit well for the Brewers. I think he can hit better than that pretty easily.

 

LF .343/.439/.782

RF .339/.442/.792

1B .363/.483/.846

[MJLiverock]

A .760 OPS is well below average for a 1B which is where he is mentioned as a future replacement for Prince. Even if he can get to .800 for an OPS that is still below average. And again, average is just that, average, middle of the pack, nothing special. I used the Overbay comparison since in my view that may be his upside, a lot of doubles, decent OBP, not overwhelming power. Overbay was a .900 OPS player in the minors as well but in the major is around that average to slightly below average leve.

 

If Lawrie gets shifted to OF, Gamel will most likely go toward 1B, espcially if Prince is gone. With McGehee at 3B, and Braun in LF 1B seems to be Gamel's best shot. I don't think they'll move Braun back to the IF in order to put Gamel in his OF spot.

 

The upside is that if they lose Prince, and can keep Weeks, McGehee keeps hitting, they will only need to fill in a few spots in the field over the next 4 or so years - - 1B, RF, C. Although no one can expect a player to match Prince's production, C can easily improve and RF can be a wash or better. They probably need one of the guys just drafted or in the next draft to develop into an impact type hitter to be ready in 2015 or so when Braun may be looking elsewhere. That is also to say that CF and SS pan out as is with Escobar and some combination of Gomez/Cain/Schafer.

[TheCrew07]

I think the system is under rated. We have 3 impact bats in Gamel, Lawrie, and Salome. I realize it's hard to be excited about Salome, but even Lucroy will be a good hitter for a catcher, in that I have no doubt. We have a ton of depth, that's a very good thing. If we can surround a couple of stars with average or better players, the MLB team will be very good. It's not necessary to have an impact bat at every position, I'm unsure why we tend to focus on the position players so much obsessing about getting impact talent at every position.

 

We do have quite a bit of impact pitching in the system, and by impact I mean pitchers who profile to top out in that 1-2 range. I guess what you believe will depend on what you consider to be an impact pitcher. We have plenty of pitchers that could be #2s, and I'd be happy with that. If Rogers will ascend over the course of the season he has the stuff to be a #1, but he's tough to project due to his control. The same could be said of Jeffress, both those guys could be 1s, or they could pitch themselves into relief, or even out of the league. Rivas is over looked by everyone, I think he's in that 2-4 range in MLB. With Peralta making progress on a 3rd pitch, he's comfortably in that 1-4 range, the same can be said of Heckathorn and Arnett. Odorizzi doesn't throw as hard as the other guys, but I think he's in that 2-4 range as a starting pitcher as well. Many are high on Scarpetta because of his CB, I think his ceiling is more a #3, but I'd definitely take that from him. Of course some of these guys will flame out, but we only need to get 3 or 4 of them to pan out, and there's still hope for Parra. Of course I'm leaving out guys like Lasker and Krestalude as well, but we don't know exactly how hard those guys are throwing. I'll have a more informed opinion when I get to see them pitch in person.

 

If we can get back a couple of impact prospects from a Fielder trade and Gamel/Salome get back to playing again I think the system suddenly becomes pretty formidable.

[logan82]

A .760 OPS is well below average for a 1B which is where he is mentioned as a future replacement for Prince.

 

Like I said though, I think Gamel can easily surpass the .760 OPS he put up last year. He put that up and people thought he was hitting poorly. If he can hit for even a .800 OPS and play above average defense(which I think is a reasonable expectation for Gamel) he is a better than average 1B. Gamel's poor fielding is mostly throwing related from what I saw and have read about and he wouldn't have to do that much at 1B. Really it doesn't matter if he can put up average 1B stats. He will be on the field with McGehee, Lawrie and Braun. Putting them in the best defensive alignment is what is really important. To me, that means Braun in LF since I think he has bad baseball instincts and didn't field ground balls well. The other guys shuffle around as best suits our needs. Gamel or Lawrie at 1B, 3B or Rf doesn't really matter to me much. Neither does whether they can hit like an average player for that position, although I think either could be above average for a 1B if you include defense.

[Tedaldtada]

MJLiverock, Gamel put up that line as a rookie. He easily has .900+ OPS upside.

 

And the comment about Lawrie not being 'star' quality is pretty conflicting with most reports we have on his bat.

[pete]

"Average" could mean just below the best or just above the worst. The Yankees have below average players.

[And That]

All teams have average and below average players on their roster, even the best teams. The problem is, a lot of teams have overpaid to obtain average or worse players. Systems that can produce cheap "filler" around star players are very valuable systems. That's why I'm encouraged by the present state of our farm system, top heavy though it may not be.

[logan82]

I think our 2012(not sure if Gamel or Lawrie will be with the Brewers before then) lineup will be Lawrie, Gamel, McGehee, Escobar, Salome/Lucroy, Braun, 2B(hopefully Weeks), and CF(Gomez/Cain/Schafer). Lawrie may be the only one with an "average 1B bat" other than Braun, that doesn't mean we should put him there. We take those guys and put them in the positions that makes our defense best. It doesn't matter to me if a guy can hit enough to play a position or not.

[uwisfan]

In recent years, the Brewers have overpaid for mediocre talent, especially in pitching, to fill out the roster: Suppan, Gagne, Hall, Looper, and each of the last several pitching staffs... If you can stock enough "average" starters for cheap, you can spend a few bucks on the stars (Braun, Yo) and then you still have money left to go after a #1 starter and probably another star...

[MJLiverock]

MJLiverock, Gamel put up that line as a rookie. He easily has .900+ OPS upside.

 

And the comment about Lawrie not being 'star' quality is pretty conflicting with most reports we have on his bat.

I'm not saying it is impossible for Gamel to do that but I have my doubts about a consistent ability to do that because he struggled after being sent back down and now is going to miss a significant part of this year. If he struggles again in the second half of the year it will be chalked up to recovering from the injury which may be a legit reason but he will be another year older and another year removed from his AA success. I am just tempering my view and trying not to get too overly optimistic.

 

Lawrie has had all sorts of praise for his bat but the actual numbers aren't stellar. He may improve and reach a high ceiling potential that he was drafted for but to this point he isn't going through the minors like a Braun, Weeks, Fielder which makes me think at this point his upside isn't as high as them. He is young, didn't play college ball, so he has the chance but until he dominates a level I am not ready to call him a potential star in the making.

 

Yes, all teams have average players, even the Yankees but they also have superstar elite players as do the Rays, Red Sox, Twins, Dodgers, Cardinals, Phillies, the teams that are regular playoff contenders. My point about having too many average guys is a team of all average players probably ends up with a low 80's win total and doesn't make the post season unless they catch a lot of luck in one season. The Brewers are on the cusp of losing 1 of their elite hitters in Fielder, leaving Braun as the only elite hitter on the team and with Yo being the only starting pitcher with much of a chance of being at that elite level in the next 3 or 4 years that doesn't bode well for playoff chances. Maybe Weeks can step up on the hitting side but with the pitching expeced to be weak for a few years the hitting really has to be above average.

 

[twobrewers]

The Brewers have overpaid for replacement level players like Soup and Gagne. The mistakes they have made in free agency should not have a bearing on their minor league system.

 

I think the point that many of us are trying to make is that REPLACEMENT level players can be had for cheap. (I love Gindl, but most project very little MLB success.) It doesn't matter to me if our starting right fielder is Gindl or Cattolanatto if they both perform at the same level because the cost would be similiar. Special players like Prince and Braun win games.

 

Have a rookie making 400,000 K would be a much better alternative than Soup. But my argument is that Soup never should have been paid in the first place. There are plenty of 30 year old pitchers who could replicate his numbers on a minimum contract. Of course, I suppose a deeper system at least might protect Melvin from himself overpaying replacement players.

[logan82]

Maybe Weeks can step up on the hitting side but with the pitching expeced to be weak for a few years the hitting really has to be above average.

 

Our hitting has and probably will continue to be above average for a while even when Fielder leaves. There is a lot of room to upgrade on the pitching side however.

[Godspeed]

Lawrie has had all sorts of praise for his bat but the actual numbers aren't stellar. He may improve and reach a high ceiling potential that he was drafted for but to this point he isn't going through the minors like a Braun, Weeks, Fielder which makes me think at this point his upside isn't as high as them.

 

Brett Lawrie is 20 years old. Braun & Weeks weren't even in the system at that age and Lawrie's in AA. They didn't even reach AA until their 22-year-old seasons. It's not a fair comparison, but I'd say he's progressing through the system quite fine.

[igor67]

Just thought I give a note that Gindl's strikeout pace after 100 ABs is half of what it was last year. His walk rate and power have stayed right there too, so that argues well for his ability to keeping making adjustments.

[battlekow]

Via View From Bernie's Chalet, here's Keith Law on Brewers pitching prospects:

Jason (Germantown, WI)

 

Klaw, which

pitcher in the Brewers system has the highest ceiling? Eric Arnett, Jake Odorizzi or

Wily Peralta?

 

Klaw

(1:42 PM)

 

Peralta.

[battlekow]

New Power 50 should be up sometime tonight.

[TooLiveBrew]

Sweet!

[battlekow]

It's up. Go easy on me.

[hawing]

Our loge usher reads the Power 50, and I told him Sunday to watch for it this week. Talk about a pressure cooker for battlekow.

[LouisEly]

Between injuries and ineffectiveness, I don't think I have ever been as unenthused by a Power 50 as I have been by this one.

 

Great job as always, and here's to an infusion of talent next month.

[TheCrew07]

Excellent job as always gentlemen.

 

I'm not sure where to peg Bucci and Lasker upside wise, and I'm not sure who I like better as a pitching prospect. Both are walking way too many people (my least favorite organizational trend),but from listening to the games I get the impression that Lasker is more of a nibbler than a guy who's struggling with his FB command like Bucci. I'm hoping both will add another tick or 2 to their FB, even so both consistently work in the low 90s which is better than Krestalude who tops out 88/8i9. Up until his last start Lasker had gotten most of his K's in a starting role, his K/9 as starter was over 9.0, then mysteriously he only BBs and Ks 1 batter each on the 29th. I honestly think Lasker has pitched better than his ERA would indicate, part of the problem here is that once again WI is horrible in the running game.

 

Tunnell talked last season about FB command being priority 1 for every pitcher, then developing secondary stuff, then about the time they hit AA the organization starts to work on holding runners and all that good stuff. Charlie Greene has pretty much said the same thing about the catchers, they worry about the blocking and game calling first, correcting the rest as the catchers progress. The rattlers have already given up 73 SBs (prior to today's game) on the season, that's an awful lot of extra bases leading to extra runs. I guess what I'm saying is that it's very hard to isolate the pitching in WI because all aspects of the defense have been so bad. The team leads the league in Errors, but many games there's another a couple of plays that aren't scored as Errors but allow runners to move up and runs to score.

 

Some how in the midst of all that chaos Bucci has managed to thrive with far and away the worst BB rate of any starter, amazing. It seems like whenever the other starters walk a guy he comes around to score. I've been considering him very fortunate but at some point here I'm going to have to accept it as a trend.

[wibadgers23]

LouisEly, I'm right there with you. I was actually going to start a thread stating my frustration with how the season has gone so far. The injuries have been overwhelming and the sub-par performances from some of our top prospects have been demoralizing (there's that word again!). For the positives, Lo Cain and Odorizzi have been excellent so far and guys like Heckathorn, Rivas, and Lawrie have been solid.