Power 50 discussion -- Latest: September Power 50 now up!

[And That]

Edit: It's up!

 

Should be up awhile before the game tonight.

 

We removed one of the rules for this season: there will be no more upper age limit for inclusion on the list. Previously, on his 27th birthday a player became ineligible. That rule originally existed because when I started the Power 50 back in the ESPN message board and early Brewerfan days, our farm system was so crappy that I needed some way to weed out the older non-prospects from the younger non-prospects and avoid arguments like "Keith Luuloa is too a prospect, idiot!" Anyway, we didn't find the rule necessary anymore due to the strength of the farm system. If an older guy still might make an impact in Milwaukee down the road, he's a prospect. Welcome back, Mr. Heether.

 

We also discussed including a service time cutoff for Power 50 inclusion, similar to what MLB uses to determine rookie status. In the end we decided not to do that and just keep Baseball America's standard of 130 ABs/50 IP as the threshold for graduation. Basically we looked at Mat Gamel sitting on the bench for days and days and decided we shouldn't hold management ineptitude (or time spent on the major league DL at the beginning of the season prior to being optioned) against a player.

 

Finally, Brad (pogokat) has stepped down from Power 50 duties and we have enlisted Eric (battlekow) to join our cult. Thanks Brad, and welcome Eric!

 

So keep checking back this afternoon. It'll be up after lunch but God willing, before dinner.

 

Just as a tease, the following players received first, second or third place votes (alphabetized):

 

-Zach Braddock

-Mat Gamel

-Brett Lawrie

-Jon Lucroy

-Jake Odorizzi

[gregmag]

Great work as always, guys -- thank you!

 

IMHO, having Lucroy at #1 slightly overvalues position and ripeness for the majors, as against upside. I'm usually big on those factors, so I'm arguing against type a bit -- but as good as Lucroy looks, I think we're in trouble if somebody on that list doesn't have a better career than he profiles to have. That said, Lawrie is the only guy whom I feel pretty strongly about putting ahead of Lucroy. Braddock will have to be a frontline closer to help the team more than a solid starting catcher, and Gamel . . . I still feel in my gut like Gamel's a better prospect than Lucroy, but his signal is just carrying too much static right now. If he comes back and hits, then I think he's back to #2.

 

This seems like a year when we could see a lot of churning near the top of the list. Gamel, Lucroy, and/or Braddock could graduate and then some. Cain and Green seem to be making their moves. Gindl just keeps coming, and at some point that kind of momentum stops people talking about height. We've got young outfielders whom we don't really know at all yet, but we'll know a lot in three months. The pitchers . . . I agree with putting Odorizzi at the top of the lower-level crowd for now, but any one of Arnett, Rivas, Rogers, Jeffress, or Scarpetta realistically could pass Odorizzi even if he keeps dealing, and I would bet that one of them does.

 

Fun!

[craigharmann]

That's a pretty deep Power 50. Shows how far the farm system has come!

[TheCrew07]

Adams, Dykstra, and Lintz all removed from the P50 with Frederickson barely hanging on... yikes.

[TooLiveBrew]

Great post, gregmag. Thanks to battlekow & co. for getting this Power 50 up! It was a pleasant surprise to see upon arriving at the forums today http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Like most (I'm guessing), I was pretty surprised to see Lucroy at #1. I agree with gregmag that Lucroy doesn't seem to have the upside that you want at that #1 overall spot, but to be fair his position & MLB readiness definitely should factor in. I know it's fairly obvious that I'm still very high on Gamel, so I really like seeing him still in the top 5. Since it looks like Braddock will be a bullpen arm, I'd have Gamel ahead of him. I can't argue much, though -- the top 5 or so are all really tight imo.

 

It was kind of depressing to read the blurb on Salome. I really like him, and it stinks that the logjam at catcher (still a good problem to have) has come to such a head. Clearly both he & Lucroy need to be at Nashville & playing behind the plate on an 'everyday' basis. I really don't know how the org. will handle that, and I hope they don't rush into any roster move and/or transaction too hastily. I would hate to see Salome traded just to make room, unless Melvin & Co. found a fair return, of course.

 

It looks like Peralta & Odorizzi have the chance to be the big movers this season. Like gregmag noted, there will likely be some graduations this season in the top 5, and those two young arms look poised to jump right in. Everything I read about Peralta just seems to get better & better, and I hope he can make the jump to & handle Huntsville this season. Craigharmann is right -- this is a deep system, and I fully expect Bruce Seid & his scouts to continue to keep it stocked. I think they've done very well so far.

[Tedaldtada]

Just want to say that I am very happy with Gindl's placement.

 

Also, welcome Khris Davis, Gennett, and the rest.

 

I'll predict the biggest mover this year is Walla. Next would be Khris Davis.

[twobrewers]

You took the words right out of my mouth, TheCrew07. Yikes is right. And that's without mentioning the difficulties of Arnett so far.

 

Thank goodness we've had extra picks the past few years from Shouse & Sabathia - because there have been a lot of misses.

 

Who's the Chris Cody fan? Briggs? He is going to be devastated!

[TheCrew07]

The Cody fan would be clancy

[Principessa21]

How do you pronounce 'Salome'?

[Mass Haas]

How do you pronounce 'Salome'?

Sal'-o-may

 

Accent on first syllable, long "O" in the middle, may like the month.

[Principessa21]

Thank you.

[Menace II Sobriety]

I was reading a piece from Kevin Goldstein today about how people despise Bryce Harpers' attitude and there was a mention about how Mike Trout is already the number 1 prospect in the Angels organization, and if the draft were today would be a consensus top 10 pick. I bring this up because some people on here were asking last week if the Brewers would have taken him with the next pick. I believe I read that they were sitting on Trout and had some lengthy talks pre-draft.

[logan82]

Kind of disappointed to see yet another mention that seems to indicate some knock on Lawrie's work ethic. Not sure if I would have put Lucroy #1 since his ceiling seems low. On the flip side he seems like more of a sure thing than Salome.

[Gobias Industries]

Much appreciated. I always enjoy reading these, guys. In fact, I think that's how I found this site back in 2003.

 

Can anyone vouch on how accurate baseball reference minor league is? I see Lawrie has on a 7% LD percentage. That seems absurdly low, but iirc, he had a really low percentage last year as well. That kind of scares me for a guy who's known for his bat.

[bork]

With the mention of possible position changes for Lawry and Gamel, who would you rather have at 1B when Fielder is gone?

[gregmag]

New tangent: Komatsu is 22 and, in very early returns, hitting lights out at Brevard. He has always had a very advanced approach at the plate. If he's still going strong at midseason, will/should the Brewers push him up to Huntsville, to see if they really have anything? He doesn't seem like a guy who would wilt under the promotion, and I would love to see him get a chance to start his age 23 season at AAA.

[Tbadder]

I agree with almost everyone here. Overall, it does look really deep, but it doesn't look likes there's any real upside other than Lawrie. A catcher who's gonna be defensively average and hit .250 to .270 is the best we have to offer? Premium position or not, that's not very hopeful. In addition Arnett has be a real red flag so far (thank god it's so early). He absolutely needs to be no less than a #3 eventually.

[WV Brew]

If Salome is blocked by Zaun/Kotteras, he's not much of a prospect. Personally, I still have high hopes for him. I suspect the Brewers are not pleased with his defensive progress or he might be the backup now. I would also probably have dumped Frederickson before some of the other pitchers. He hasn't shown much yet.

[logan82]

I suspect the Brewers are not pleased with his defensive progress or he might be the backup now.

 

I don't think that is true. It wouldn't make sense burning up service time on him as a backup.

[HiAndTight]

I agree with almost everyone here. Overall, it does look really deep, but it doesn't look likes there's any real upside other than Lawrie. A catcher who's gonna be defensively average and hit .250 to .270 is the best we have to offer? Premium position or not, that's not very hopeful. In addition Arnett has be a real red flag so far (thank god it's so early). He absolutely needs to be no less than a #3 eventually.

A catcher who is going to be at least defensively average and hit .250-.270...and now the important part. And who could carry an OBP north of .370-.380, and hit 20 HR's.

That's a pretty high cieling.

 

And I vehemetly disagree that Arnett HAS to be a #3 at worst. With all of the young pitchers we've got, we're finally at a point where if one pitcher goes down, it doesn't destroy us.

 

And with all the chances for a pitcher to get hurt and go down, it's not a good chance he's going to become a #3 in the future. We absolutely need 2-3 guys from Peralta, Odorizzi, Rivas, guys like that to make it all the way up and become fixures. We've got a lot of options for the 3-5 spots. Periard has long been a favorite of mine.

 

I just think putting too much hope on one guy ultimately leads to disappointment(unless his name is Yovani).

 

I think we're in good shape right now. I'd like to see us unloading some of the dead weight, taking a 2 year period to sorta...regroup, get our salary under control and get a surplus so that we can add a player when all the young guys are up and contributing, but it doesn't look like that is going to happen. But instead of signing the Randy Wolf, Doug Davis, even Prince Fielder types, I'd rather stick money into the treasure chest so we could add a guy like Matt Cain in 2012 when he's a FA. Not gonna happen.

 

In any event though, I love the depth we've got throughout the top 50. Scotter Gennett may be my favorite new player, Odorrizi is pretty high up on my favorite pitchers behind Rivas, and we've just got every position covered, every type of pitcher...

 

When we start producing utility players like Adam Heether, when we start producing the back of our Bullpens with guys like Heckathorn, Braddock, and Axford, #4-5 type pitchers like Josh Butler, Alexandre Periard, guys like that...catchers...it really saves us a whole lot of money.

 

This is the deepest 50 I've seen us go in years. The top 5 isn't as good as it's once been with the Weeks/Prince/Hardy types, but 10-50 is better than it's ever been.

 

 

[twobrewers]

Not that anyone cares, but my top 10 would look like this...

1. Zach Braddock - Starter or closer. Either one is very valuable. They better not waste him in middle relief.
2. Jake Odorrizi - Great results so far. Seems like the only pitcher the Brewers have really taken the time to develop properly.
3. Johnathan Lucroy - I'd like more power. And he probably peaks as a "good" MLB catcher - but too close to a quality player already not have to ranked this high.
4. Wily Peralta - Scouting reports are great this year. Patience is about to pay off.
5. Lorenzo Cain - Can play CF. Looked great in spring training 2 years ago. 2009 was a wasted season. Current .450 OBP is great. Could use some extra base hits
6. Mat Gamel - Injured. Often. Brewers offered him up in trades and found no real takers. That says a lot. Poor defender might not have enough power for 1B. Swing looks slow.
7. Brett Lawrie - Can't play defense. Has a bad attitude. And has but up good, but far from great numbers. Other than scouting reports at all-star game - why should I be excited?
8. Caleb Gindl - Nothing but production. Every year he improves a little.
9. Jeremy Jeffress - Can still throw 100 mph. A good pitching coach should be able to harness that.
10. Kyle Heckathorn - Lots of velocity and limiting walks makes for a good combination.

A few people have commented about how deep the Power 50 is currently. And while that is a good think for the minor league affiliates (more wins), I think it has almost no impact on the MLB team. If anything, I think our minor league system is pretty depleted. Player ranked lower than 10 rarely make MLB baseball - and even more rarely have an impact.

Is it great to have so much depth that Brooks Hall is 35? Or is it horrible that half our of top 10 might never make it to MLB?

Special players win ball games. Our system is full of replacement players.

[Tedaldtada]

Wow, twobrewers, I could not disagree with your take more. Not every ML star is obvious to spot in the minors. If it was easy to determine who the stars are, then, well, I think you know what I mean.

 

Regarding Lawrie, you have to remember his age.

 

Regarding non-top 10 guys and replacement players, you're trying to tell me Scooter Gennett looks like a replacement level player? Kentrail Davis? Amaury Rivas? Your general negativity towards our guys (Arnett, Gamel, Salome, etc.) is getting tired. No one is saying we are Tampa Bay loaded, but depleted? That's a stretch.

[twobrewers]

I am a big Gamel fan. But this board really falls in love with their prospects. We have not had good representation on any top 100 rankings. I love a lot of our players - but the talent at the top is limited.

 

I hope my negativity towards a few players isn't overwhelming, but Lawrie's attitude problems are a big concern for me. Plus, you have to admit we have really struck out on a few high picks lately. ( Adams, Lintz and Dykstra)

[battlekow]

Jim Callis on Arnett: "Command issues, not stuff issues."

[CheezWizHed]

twobrewers, I agree on Lawrie. Sure, he is young, but then I don't get why the Brewers are pushing him up so fast. Sure, potential is there, but production is pretty luke warm.

 

But I disagree with the depth view. Sure the upper echelon isn't as high as we had in the past, but I think the group rated as 6-28 is pretty tight in terms of talent. You could probably change people 5 spots in that group and not blink an eye. That is where your depth comes from. A deep group of players that project to average MLB talent.

 

Rather than looking at them 1-50 (when comparing to previous Power50s), looking at them as A,B,C prospects would show a higher number of B and high C type prospects than in the past, IMO.