Ramifications of DFA'ing Davis?

[MilwaukeeCounsell]

If he pitches like this over the next 3 or 4 starts, I'll be worried. But until then, I'm more inclined to look to his career numbers and believe he'll pitch closer to those than maintain a 12ish ERA

[bklynbrewcrew]

Saying Davis was decent is like saying Suppan was good in his first start. When a guy cant even get through 5 innings he certainly did not pitch decently. When will the excuses end for this pitching staff? I realize we have only played 12 games but we have given up at least 5 runs in every game but one. After last season I find it hard to give the benefit of the doubt to this pitching staff.

[BrewCrewForever]

Davis is off the an awful start, but I still think he will settle in to his career norms before the season is over. No need to DFA him.

[kramnoj]

3 games is a small sample size, especially if any conclusions that could be reached from those games support any preconceptions one may have. Sabathia had a 13.50 ERA through 4 games in 2008, didn't make it through the 6th in any of them, and his best game score was 40 in those 4. His performance in those games didn't have anything to do with his performance later in the year, when he was dominant for the Crew.

 

Being patient isn't any fun, but sometimes a player has to play enough to show that he's bad before we really know it. And 3-4 games for a SP isn't enough time.

[The Truth]

This rotation has been absolutely awful so far...

Keeping in mind that this is all an extremely small sample:

 

Bush has a 3.86 ERA and a 1.114 WHIP (both stats much better than his career norms),

 

Gallardo pitched well in 2 games and had one bad game (in the season opener he pitched 7 innings only walked 2 and gave up 3 earned runs, in the start a few days ago he pitched 6 innings struck out 5 and gave up only 2 earned runs)...

 

Wolf struck out 8 in 6 and 2/3's innings in his first game, he has a 4.91 ERA and 7.4 SO/9. Not great or even as good as expected but hardly "awful"

 

That is pretty much 3/4 of our starting rotation so far (considering that Suppan has only started one game). So, no, our starting rotation has not been awful this year...

 

 

 

 

[bobskube]

No need to talk DFA yet. If this goes on for about 6 starts...then maybe.

[NievesNoNO]

The Brewers can simply not afford to DFA Davis. There won't be a team left if they start making those types of moves based on a few games. Is he a good pitcher? No, but he has a track record of at least being consistently slightly above average. Although it would not surprise me to see average turn into below average this year. His WHIP is consistently bad and his K rate has been declining. The Brewers just need Davis and Bush to be healthy and throw when they're scheduled. The season really hinges on Gallardo taking the next step, Wolf repeating a career year, and probably something special to happen with either Narveson or Parra. That's another topic I suppose though.

[logan82]

probably something special to happen with either Narveson or Parra.

 

You mean like actually being put in the rotation instead of Suppan.

[NYChez]

This guy has got to have a very short leash. If Prince leaves, we're likely headed to a period of not being in contention. We need to win NOW. We can't waste a season waiting to see if a low upside guy can get through 5 innings without exceeding 110 pitches and a run per inning. If Davis is given another two starts, it's got to be with the idea that this is his last chance - next guy in if he fails.

A history lesson. The 1992 Brewers were the best team in baseball - except they suffered through about 15 horrendous starts by veterans Ron Robinson and Bruce Ruffin early in the season before handing over starting duties to a younger pitcher. The delay in cutting the cord on the veteran, low upside guys definitely cost the Brewers the division title and, the way they were playing the 2nd half, likely cost them a world championship. The next offseason they lost Paul Molitor to free agency, finished in last place, and it took 14 years for the franchise to sniff an above .500 record again.

I just don't want to look back 10 years from now thinking, "man that 2010 team would have been great if only they weren't so tied up in trying to get their $4 million worth from Doug Davis".

[Ennder]

Wolf has a 4.00 xFIP so far, Bush has a 3.83, Gallardo has a 3.90, Suppan has a 3.93 and Davis had a 4.37 going into today and I assume it improved today given his stat line. I'm not worried about the rotation so far at all, all of their issues have been in the really high variance don't trust small sample size type areas.

[TooLiveBrew]

This guy has got to have a very short leash.

 

His career ERA & history of starting off roughly in April disagree. You're overreacting. The guy that should (& hopefully will) be out of the rotation first is Suppan.

[davego]

Unless Doug commits a felony, I'd hold off on the DFA talk for a few more starts. This is a rough crowd.

[PeaveyFury]

This guy has got to have a very short leash.

 

And if Prince doesn't start hitting in the next 10 days, should he be in danger of losing playing time at first to Gamel when he comes back?

[JohnBriggs12]

He'd have to be bad into June to get DFA'd and I mean 7+ ERA bad. He could end up in the bullpen to get "straightened out" before that but I think he gets at least 4-5 more starts before even that move is made.

 

Rotation depth though which was this year's spring training theme isn't proving to be the issue that rotation quality is. With Estrada and Lofgren dealing in AAA, they may have plenty of decent options as 4-5 starter depth if they were to lose a guy on waivers. The problem in the current rotation isn't performing up to even modest expectations with the exception of Bush.

[Invader3K]

I guess I'm getting kind of tired of the fans trying to pin all the team's problems on any one given player, whether it's Suppan or now Davis. We saw the same thing come up last year when suddenly Nelson was the team's antichrist, and you had fans calling for him to be cut. Because yeah, when the team starts 4-8 on the season, it's probably due to the 25th man's inability to hit, right?

 

Gallardo hasn't been performing anything close to a #1 pitcher yet, but hasn't caught much heat from the fans on this forum. Wolf has been "OK, but more like a #4 or 5, than a #2 or 3. Bush has been pretty good so far, but that's about the most glowing review you can give for any of our starters so early into the 2010 campaign.

 

It's a problem with how the rotation is constructed as a whole, not just a problem with one or two guys that are under-performing in any given week.

[CheezWizHed]

Don't forget DD is leading our pitching staff in RBIs this season also... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[NievesNoNO]

probably something special to happen with either Narveson or Parra.

 

You mean like actually being put in the rotation instead of Suppan.

Yes, that would be a nice start. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

 

[Baldkin]

If you truly believe that they will continue to have both the 4th worst bullpen ERA and the 3rd worst starting pitching ERA, they have no chance this season.

 

I don't think Doug Davis is the problem. The problem is everywhere, aside from Carlos Villanueva, Todd Coffey and Dave Bush so far.

[Thurston Fluff]

The problem is it's baseball and every team goes through tough stretches. The Brewers happen to have started the season in one of those. That sucks but on the bright side if the team is better than it's shown so far at some point in the season it will play better than it should as well.

To determine a player is so bad that he should be paid to go away is something that takes at least a half season's worth of information to even come close to making sure it's a good move.

You'd hate to release DD and have him go to the Cubs and pitch like Carlos Silva so far this season the next four or five starts. DFAing a player means you give your opponents the shot at getting him for no cost and no risk. If we were right and he is toast no big deal. If we were wrong they not only get a useful player but get him on our dime.

[sheethead]

I am ready to DFA the next pitcher that gives up 4 or more runs in an inning where they walked at least one batter. Can someone keep the Pirates under 6? PLEASE?!?

[zzzmanwitz]

If these two weeks of baseball happened in mid to late July, people would be mildly upset but it would pretty much go unnoticed. We need to try to be less reactionary, give the players a chance to show what they can do before jumping all over them.

[MilwaukeeCounsell]

For the SABR crowd, Doug's BABIP against is a staggering .502

 

The league average is about .300 and his career average is .312.

 

Also, his ERA is 11.52, while his FIP is 5.61

 

Basically, this is a fluke and can be chalked up to bad luck/small sample size. It will surely come down, just like his ERA

[Baldkin]

I'm not sure where to put this, but the Brewers have set an NL record by giving up 4 or more runs for 22 straight games.

 

Awesome.

[craigharmann]

Oh come, on.....let's not DFA him, let's just trade him for someone else! And while we're at it, let's just trade all the guys who are underperforming for other guys. Let's get rid of Macha, bring someone else in, replace DM with someone else and have someone with more money buy the team from Mark A. Heck, while we're still at it, let's blow up Miller Park and get a better stadium!

[FVBrewerFan]

I agree it's too early to panic, but I don't think it's too early to start asking questions. We have Davis and Suppan in the rotation, Parra and Narveson in the bullpen, and Stetter and Braddock in Nashville. Now, I'm not sure that puts the Brewers in the best position to win games. While Dvais may not be DFA'd, there comes a point where he may be moved into the bullpen if this continues. Could be jsut a bad 3 game stretch that jsut as easily could have come in July. Or it could be he's just not a very good SP anymore. Time will tell. But if/when the plug is pulled on Davis/Suppan may just determine if MAcha and/or Melvin are back next year.