Let's talk Hoffman

[sheethead]

You obviously think he's done and that you're unequivocally right but the point I think people are trying to make is that those who disagree with you are not automatically unrealistic.

 

That's a fair point. Those disagreeing with me are more unrealistic than I am however. He has never been this awful in a 12 inning stretch in his life, so uncharted territory requires a new map be drawn. Especially when he's 42 years old.

 

He can throw the change for a strike BTW, but when he does it gets hammered. Same with the fastball. His pitches are not effective this year. There is no denying that, location or mechanics aside.

[TooLiveBrew]

His pitches have not been effective, that is definite. However, to me, a more reasonable answer to 'Why?' is that it's early in the season (& he didn't throw in ST) and his mechanics are out of whack. Not that he's just toast.

 

Do you acknowledge the fact that he could well just be getting himself sorted out still like most pitchers did in ST? April has seen, historically, Trevor's second-highest monthly ERA split. While you're right in that he's never been *this* bad, it's not the first time he's started a season off poorly.

[sheethead]

Do you acknowledge the fact that he could well just be getting himself sorted out still like most pitchers did in ST?

 

How could his ineffectiveness be explained by a lack of action in ST when his routine has been the same for years, and at the same time suggest he will rebound because past years results conclude he is still the same pitcher? He did nothing different this year in ST than he has done in past years. Last year he came off the DL and was on fire. I wouldn't attribute his ineffectiveness this year to a lack of action in spring training anymore than I would suggest he will be fine based on past results. I guess I am not reading that far into it. He is what he is right now, awfully ineffective. Maybe Trevor will explain why in a book sometime down the line.

[Fatter than Joey]

April has seen, historically, Trevor's second-highest monthly ERA split. While you're right in that he's never been *this* bad, it's not the first time he's started a season off poorly.

 

Let's investigate the recent history a bit... Consider 2005, 2007, 2008 and 2010 -- (2006 he had a good April, 2009 only pitched 3 innings)

 

2005 -- G8 IP7.2 R5 ERA5.87 SO/9,7.0 SO/BB,6.0 WHIP1.147

2007 -- G10 IP8.2 R6 ERA6.23 SO/9,6.2 SO/BB,1.5 WHIP1.269

2008 -- G10 IP9.2 R7 ERA6.52 SO/9,8.4 SO/BB,2.25 WHIP1.552

2010 -- G9 IP9 R13 ERA13.00 SO/9,5.0 SO/BB 1.67 WHIP 2.000

 

On first glance I conclude the following.

 

1.) In the last 6 seasons, Hoffman has struggled (had a high ERA) in April 4 times.

2.) Hoffman has not had an April remotely close to the one he had in 2010. 2010 has been about 2x as bad, as his recent Aprils.

3.) Hoffman's K's are significantly down.

4.) I didn't list it, but in his career Hoffman has given up 17 April homeruns -- 6 of them came in 2010.

 

What I am curious about though is "bad April" -- for a reliever with only 7-10IP in a month, it is possible to confuse "bad month" with "really bad game in a given month"

 

To the gamelogs we go....

 

2005 -- In 2005, Hoffman gave up 4Rs in his first appearance, and then in the rest of the month, gave up just one run in 7 appearances... In May 2005, TH gave up 1 run in 11 outings.... I would say Hoffman did not have a "bad April" rather, "one bad game in April", and then enjoyed an awesome May.

 

2007 -- In 2007, TH made 10 appearances, he was unscored on in 8 of those -- In back to back games, TH gave up 2 runs and 4 runs. In May he was unscored on in 12 appearances. Overall in 2007, he pitched well in most of his appearances in April and May -- I wouldn't consider April 2007, a "bad month".

 

2008 -- In 2008 TH was scored on in 4 of 10 appearances -- (three 1R and one 4R), In May 2008, he gave up one run twice in May out of 9 appearances -- I would qualify April 2008 as a "bad month".

 

2010 -- In 2010 TH has been scored upon in 6 of 9 appearances, in April, including 3 multi-run appearances of 2,3 and 5 runs. Also he has been scored upon in May as well, already (3 runs in 3 appearances, 2 of those 3 were scoreless).

 

I would conclude, that any argument made consisting of "Hoffman has had bad Aprils" is largely hand-waving. Hoffman has had high ERA in recent Aprils, however I would only consider one of the months (2008) "bad" and the other months to be the result of one (or two) horrible performances. Furthermore, in each May, following a "high ERA April", TH seemed to have righted the ship by then, and pitched remarkably well. Given his performance last night, I am not sure we should feel terribly optimistic about TH going forward.

[brewmann04]

We really can't afford to see if he can work him self back into the closer role we can't afford to give away games.

[MJLiverock]

While I can see the hope in thinking he just needs to figure something out, I mean the guy has been doing it forever but at some point he is going to be completely done, it won't matter what he did last year or in his career when that moment arrives. Is this the moment? None of us know for sure but I don't want to see him closing out close games in the ninth until he can prove he can still get guys out consistently by having a half dozen or more good outings in the 6th or 7th or in blowouts. It isn't like there aren't plenty of opportunities to come in during the 6th and pitch with guys on base or not given the length of the starter's outings.

 

So while his career allows for some leeway or benefit of the doubt it doesn't have to come with games on the line and no hope of recovery by pitching the 9th. Each additional year at this point is a remarkable achievement but also makes me believe he is that much closer to falling off the cliff so he could very well go from being effective to done in one season. He certainly wouldn't be the first athlete to suddenly age quickly at the end of a long career, especially at age 42.

[owbc]

I do not think there are conclusive arguments on either side of the debate.

 

Hoffman is the least of our team's problems right now. Between the hit and miss offense and the terrible bullpen, Hoffman is seeing less than 1 save opportunity per week. Even in his ineffective state, he should be able to save most of them. Closing is a relatively easy job once you get over the mental part of it.

 

Removing Hoffman is a big deal. The move will be all over ESPN and will be closely scrutinized. To justify the move, management will have to name a deserving replacement. Bullpen by committee obviously isn't going to cut it. Coffey is the only suitable substitute, but he is great at coming in with runners on base in the middle innings and should be left where he is.

 

Therefore, Hoffman basically is closer by default, until he retires or blows several more saves.

[sheethead]

Hoffman is the root of the bullpen's problem, and is one of the biggest problems for the Brewers right now. That and the stupid banner in right field. In fact, if you could personify the Brewer bullpen problem right now, it would be Trevor Hoffman.

[DonMoney4Mgr]

I agree with Sheethead. Also, one thing about hoffman is he has no effective breaking ball. His slider doesn't even look like a slider. Although that may have always been the case. But hitters are just sitting on his change and his fastball and the result is batting practice. The causes of a pitcher to be "done" are many and sometimes not easily diagnosed. However, at the of 43 it just may be natural causes.

[owbc]

Hoffman is the root of the bullpen's problem

He's pitched 12 innings and cost us 3 games. In just the Braves series, the rest of the bullpen pitched almost that many innings and also contributed strongly to 3 losses. Parra, Suppan, Villanueva, and Vargas have all been shaky. Stetter was DFA'd due to ineffective pitching. If you got rid of Hoffman and replaced him with Mariano Rivera, the Brewers would still have a terrible bullpen.

[mletto157]

sheethead, do you see what FtJ did in his post? That is what people were asking of you. When you dismissed their points with blatant opinions and were being overly critical of them, they wanted some "why?" points to make a good arguement... not just opinions. Before FtJ posted I was completely with everyone else. However, FtJ actually got me thinking more about this, and to be honest did a great job of "proving" that Trevor has been historically (for him) ineffective. It might be hard to prove why he's been ineffective, but because of that... to me... it will also be hard for me to be confident in him improving in time to give us a shot at making the post season.

[sheethead]

do you see what FtJ did in his post?

 

I read it, and it was a good post by FtJ. I admit my May 12, 2010 3:29 PM post was harsh and combative. But I don't feel I need to show anyone why Hoffman is ineffective and likely out of gas. Don't take my word for it, just watch the games. I shouldn't be trying to convince others what I believe to be the case, that's for everyone else to decide on their own. If someone thinks its in the Brewers best interest to keep trotting Trevor Time out in the 9th inning, they have every right to feel that is the right thing to do. It is America afterall. Heck, you can even feel one way and portray your opinion as something completely different just to see what people say. It doesn't matter either way. What matters right now is the following...

 

12 appearances, 5 scoreless innings (5/12).

 

12 IP

16 ER

17 H

6 HR

6 BB

7 K

[rluzinski]

Hey, use the "he was great last year" all you want, but that's all it is - an argument. It has nothing to do with this year.

Yes, let's just use the results of 1 month of gamesand completely ignore everything else. That will obviously yield the most accurate estimate of any player's true ability. I just learned that Andrew Jones is awesome and Prince Fielder is average. Livan Hernandez is going to win the Cy Young award and Josh Beckett is done.

 

Like I said, I have no problem with someone arguing that Hoffman shouldn't be the closer or might not even be very good anymore. I do have a problem with someone convincing themselves that only the results in the 2010 calender year is relevant. It's basically an arbitrary cutoff; as if they skill fairy shows up every off season to reset every player. It's that kind of thinking that causes fans to accuse teams of holding on to a player "just" because of his name.

[Invader3K]

I don't think Hoffman is done, I just think he's off to a really slow/bad start. He'll pull it together eventually. Do I think he should be counted on to be the team's closer at this point? No, not really.

 

At least we have options internally if he does completely falter.

[sheethead]

That will obviously yield the most accurate estimate of any player's true ability.

 

I don't think anyone really knows what Hoffman's true ability is at this time.

 

I do have a problem with someone convincing themselves that only the results in the 2010 calender year is relevant.

 

2010 results certainly are not irrelevant.

[TooLiveBrew]

He didn't say they are irrelevant

 

 

I don't think anyone really knows what Hoffman's true ability is at this time.

 

This is the real trick. I think I mentioned earlier in this thread that if Hoffman's still struggling in or near June, that I would be worried. Maybe I'm too forgiving, but I just can't get seriously worried yet.

[sheethead]

I didn't say he said they are irrelevant, but at the same time I didn't say past results should be ignored. I'm saying everything else should not hold as much weight in this case as they would for [younger] players, because the guy is working past retirement age. Its not a cookie cutter, he will rebound because history says so, case. I don't have any ethos on the subject anyway, what do I know? It's just my opinion. The games will show whether or not he is done. If there was a line on it, I would think it would be leaning toward "done." I would be very surprised if there were not front office discussions about the possibility.

 

I think I mentioned earlier in this thread that if Hoffman's still struggling in or near June

 

That's right around the corner. Likely another 5-7 appearances.

[Fatter than Joey]

This is the real trick. I think I mentioned earlier in this thread that if Hoffman's still struggling in or near June, that I would be worried. Maybe I'm too forgiving, but I just can't get seriously worried yet.

 

It depends what you mean by "seriously worried".

 

In years past, when TH has struggled out of the gate, he has generally gotten everything back on track by early May. I am probably about 1 or 2 high-leverage failures away, from hoping that Hoffman gets reshuffled in the pen. If TH is still struggling in June, I think he is likely toast.

[TooLiveBrew]

And in years past, I am betting Hoffman actually pitched in Spring Training. That's the main reason why I'm not as doom & gloom on him yet.

[sheethead]

He pitched in ST this year.

[TooLiveBrew]

Well, yeah, 4 appearances & 4 total IP. Sorry, didn't mean to imply he literally didn't pitch this past ST, that was written poorly. I meant it as "actually pitched" instead of just throwing a tiny sample of work... meant that I doubt he's had little to no real workload in STs past.

[Fatter than Joey]

I meant it as "actually pitched" instead of just throwing a tiny sample of work... meant that I doubt he's had little to no real workload in STs past.

 

Turns out this is not true either...

 

2010 -- 4G 4IP

2009 -- 3G 3IP

2008 -- 4G 3.2IP

2007 -- 7G 6.2IP

2006 -- 8G 6.2IP

and I assume that the further back you go, the more "traditional things" look.

 

For the most part TH threw as much in 2010 ST as he did in 2009, and 2008. I seriously doubt that his lack of innings in ST is nothing more than a coincidence.

[logan82]

Maybe it just takes the old guy a little longer to get warmed up than when he was a 35 year old youngster.

[TooLiveBrew]

I meant it as "actually pitched" instead of just throwing a tiny sample of work... meant that I doubt he's had little to no real workload in STs past.

 

Turns out this is not true either...

 

2010 -- 4G 4IP

2009 -- 3G 3IP

2008 -- 4G 3.2IP

2007 -- 7G 6.2IP

2006 -- 8G 6.2IP

and I assume that the further back you go, the more "traditional things" look.

 

For the most part TH threw as much in 2010 ST as he did in 2009, and 2008. I seriously doubt that his lack of innings in ST is nothing more than a coincidence.

Thank you for finding that, I looked for old ST stats before I posted (checked B-R.com, MLB, ESPN) & couldn't find them -- where did you find those?

 

My assumption that he'd worked less this season than in STs past was obviously just wrong.

[Fatter than Joey]

It was on ESPN.com somewhere -- I found it through google...

 

Essentially they have all the ST stats, and there are two drop-downs, one for the team, and one for the year.