Let's talk Hoffman

[MadScientist]

He was helped a bit by an ump with a wide strike zone, but his location was better last night. Hopefully the better location will continue.

[travisteck]

When I was watching him last night, he seemed to have a lot more control and command of his fast ball, which by the way was up around 87, which I think is a bit higher than usual?

 

The one bad pitch I saw him throw was a changeup that hung up and in on one of the hairstons and if he would have swung, it probably would have been way out. Other than that, great change up and good command. I hope he's back

[Beast Light]

Not a very encouraging performance today. 1 IP and 3 ER in garbage innings for Hoffman. I am beginning to fear that he may be done.

[sheethead]

I am beginning to fear that he may be done.

 

I'm not sure how many times people need to see him pitch to come to this conclusion, but at least you are now leaning on the right side of the fence.

[Beast Light]

I am beginning to fear that he may be done.

 

I'm not sure how many times people need to see him pitch to come to this conclusion, but at least you are now leaning on the right side of the fence.

Let me put it this way, I had already realized that he would probably never be the same again but I did think that his performance would improve to at least Major League caliber.

 

Now I am beginning to think that he may no longer have any business pitching to big league hitters period, regardless of the in game situation. He's had a great career and been a class act all the way but there simply is no more tread left on the tires.

 

 

[sheethead]

Beast Light, I know what you are saying. I'm sure there are plenty of fans left that think he will still turn it around and be an effective closer this year. That's who I was referring to. You seem to have gotten it, there is no tread left on those tires.

[BrewCrewForever]

If Hoffman keeps this up, I wonder if maybe he might realize he is done and hang em up right after he gets his 600th save? I doubt it would happen, but I think that might be the best.

[PeaveyFury]

Beast Light, I know what you are saying. I'm sure there are plenty of fans left that think he will still turn it around and be an effective closer this year.

 

The two three-up-three-down saves on the last road trip probably gave some indication of that.

[AdvantageSchneider]

What is the 12 ERA an indication of?

 

The truth is, if his name was Joe Schmo or Derrick Turnbow, Todd Coffey would be the closer right now.

 

The only other closer in the NL who is pitching as bad as he is and still has a job is Chad Qualls, and Qualls only still has his job because every other pitcher in the D-backs bullpen is pitching worse than he is. The Brewers don't have that problem.

[sheethead]

He did walk a batter on 5/7 but erased the runner on a stellar double play turn by the defense. Out of 12 appearances this year, Hoffman has worked a scoreless frame FIVE times. He has given up 16 earned runs in 12 innings of work. Only the hardest core believers would actually believe this guy is going to have a successful campaign this year. There really is no evidence to go on, other than previous years. Too bad we can't use previous years Trevor Hoffman this year.

[Invader3K]

If Hoffman keeps this up, I wonder if maybe he might realize he is done and hang em up right after he gets his 600th save? I doubt it would happen, but I think that might be the best.

At this rate you have to wonder if he will even get to 600 saves before the season is over.

[Paulus88]

There really is no evidence to go on, other than previous years.

What else should we rely on? His stuff is generally the same as previous years why would we expect different results?

[rluzinski]

The truth is, if his name was Joe Schmo or Derrick Turnbow, Todd Coffey would be the closer right now.

 

You always hear people say, "the only reason Player X is even playing after a bad month is because of his name/contract!" To that I say, of course! What the heck do you expect? There's a reason why a guy has a "name" in the league and is making good money. He established a high level of expected performance and was financially compensated for it. When that player struggles over a week or a month, his expected future performance lowers but not not by nearly as much as some "Joe Schmo" that we know little about. That's common sense.

 

Does Hoffman's 2010 perfomance justify taking the closer's role from him? I don't know but I do know that you can't simply ignore that he had a great season last and he's been very good for a long time. That has to be taken into consideration.

[sheethead]

What else should we rely on? His stuff is generally the same as previous years why would we expect different results?

 

His stuff could likely be the same for another 7-10 years. Its not that special to begin with, but aha there is a difference! There is absolutely no movement on his fastball this year.

 

you can't simply ignore that he had a great season last and he's been

very good for a long time. That has to be taken into consideration.

I would agree if he was 35 or even 37-8 years old. But he's over 40. IMO, what he's done in the past can be thrown out the window with the fact that he probably shouldn't be pitching in MLB anymore. What he's done in the past should be ignored, unless you are prepared to suffer though his appearances. I don't like suffering, and that is what's going on each and every time he comes into a game this year whether he gives up 0 or 5 runs. Its suffering.

[TooLiveBrew]

I would agree if he was 35 or even 37-8 years old. But he's over 40. IMO, what he's done in the past can be thrown out the window with the fact that he probably shouldn't be pitching in MLB anymore.

 

Maybe if he hadn't been lights-out as recently as age 41, I might agree with you. It's early in the season, he didn't pitch basically at all in ST, and it usually takes pitchers a while to find their location. I could well be proven wrong, maybe Hoffman has lost the ability to locate. But this reeks of just another early season small-sample overreaction.

[Paulus88]

What if his lack of movement is mechanics related, then is there no hope that he will be successful this year?

 

Hoffman's 42 now, is last season any value or is there some mystical milestone that after 40 all analysis can only be done year to year? Is Jamie Moyer a good value right now since he's pitching well right now?

[sheethead]

There is always "hope." Realistically, what you see now is likely what you will get for the rest of the year. I don't see how he is going to find a magical switch and all of a sudden become a completely different pitcher than he has been for the last 12 innings (25% of his workload for the year). Sure we can hope he will.

 

I see Moyer's name come up often. I don't see what Jamie Moyer has to do with Trevor Hoffman and the Milwaukee Brewers.

I could well be proven wrong

 

I believe you are smack in the middle of being proven wrong. Wish I could say I can't wait to see him pitch again.

[TooLiveBrew]

Realistically, what you see now is likely what you will get for the rest of the year.

 

Yes, because pitchers never scuffle in the beginning of the season. And fans never overreact.

[rluzinski]

His stuff could likely be the same for another 7-10 years. Its not that special to begin with, but aha there is a difference! There is absolutely no movement on his fastball this year.

Based on what?

I would agree if he was 35 or even 37-8 years old. But he's over 40. IMO, what he's done in the past can be thrown out the window with the fact that he probably shouldn't be pitching in MLB anymore. What he's done in the past should be ignored, unless you are prepared to suffer though his appearances. I don't like suffering, and that is what's going on each and every time he comes into a game this year whether he gives up 0 or 5 runs. Its suffering.

Ok, so you are just venting. Nothing to really debate about then.

 

[sheethead]

Hey, use the "he was great last year" all you want, but that's all it is - an argument. It has nothing to do with this year. I don't blame people for holding out hope that Hoffman can be even remotely effective this year, but its not a realistic standpoint imo. Especially if you have watched all of his outings. He's just as hittable as Joe Winkelsas (sp) out there, and I don't see how that's going to change this year.

 

I would rather not give him another two or three months to prove the overreacting fans wrong, just because he is the all-time saves leader or because he was great last year. Do it because you believe he can. Judging by the stuff he is throwing this year, all I have is hope and not an ounce of belief.

[sheethead]

Nothing to really debate about then.

 

Debate this all you want, Trevor Hoffman's gas tank is empty. He will not make it through the year as the Brewers closer, and will continue to struggle to get through scoreless innings as the year goes on. Post how that's unfounded or whatever given what he's done in the past, but I'll be more than happy to show up in this thread when the proverbial splat hits the fan to say I told you so. It doesn't take an MIT grad to figure out Hoffman's effective closing days are over. They just are. It sucks the Brewers were the ones holding the hot potato.

[TooLiveBrew]

Hey, use the "he was great last year" all you want, but that's all it is - an argument.

 

Just like the "He's clearly suddenly lost the ability he's had his entire career, including last season, to locate his pitches" argument

 

 

Debate this all you want, Trevor Hoffman's gas tank is empty

 

At this point, imo the burden of proof is on you to demonstrate beyond your opinion that having anything in the gas tank has anything to do with locating. His velocity is the same as it has been for a long, long time. I don't know why you point out that he doesn't have much/any movement on his fastball... he didn't last year, either. This situation is all about location & likely mechanics. I believe you need to show how it's anything but.

[Paulus88]

I have watched all of the games. To me it looks like he can't locate his fastball or throw the change for a strike. Is that because he's old and "lost it" or because of mechanics/the natural ebbs and flows of baseball? I don't know and neither do you.

 

You obviously think he's done and that you're unequivocally right but the point I think people are trying to make is that those who disagree with you are not automatically unrealistic.

[sheethead]

Burden of proof? Mechanics? I am not in Hoffman's head, so I can't speak to mechanics. All I can give is raw results, which I have. They are overwhelmingly awful. Suppan's velocity is the same it was in 2005, how come he's not good anymore? The same velocity as last year argument is vapid. I see it doesn't matter here anymore, it must be his location and mechanics. Exactly.

[bklynbrewcrew]

The guy looks done to me. Its amazing that he lasted this long with a slowball masquerading as his fastball. With this GM and this manager it will probably be another two months before he loses his closer job.