Let's talk Hoffman

[monty57]

I "watched" the game on Gameday this afternoon, and all of his changeups seemed to be in the dirt. I DVR'd the game, but didn't have the stomach to watch it. Was he really that far off with his changeups? If it's simply a matter of changeup control, then it could be fixed. I hope he's willing to take on a lesser role for a while until he gets things right. As someone earlier said, we have a thin margin to make the playoffs, and we've already "turned a lot of wins into losses" this season.

[brains and braun]

Yes. I was at the game, standing behind section 118, and most of the changeups bounced up there....most maybe 6" to a foot short. Seemed that some didn't bounce, but he was definitely still off command-wise. On the bright side, it seemed he was finally willing to go to the changeup.

[pebadger]

It's not as bad as it could be. We'll know they've hit bottom when Fangraphs has the Brewers win probability at below 50% when they enter the 9th with a 1-run lead.

[rluzinski]

Guess Keith Law was right. He ripped the Brewers for giving Hoffman an $8 mill deal. Said Hoffman was declining, and it sure looks as if he is/has.

Chone projected him for a 3.75 ERA before the season started. If he had done that over 50 IP, no way he's worth even close to $8 mil. That said, Hoffman is not an easy guy to project (not exactly like just about any other pitcher) and he had a great walk and strikeout rate. Even if he was closer to a 3.00 ERA reliever, he might be worth half of what he actually got.

 

Melvin, like so many other GMs, is willing to pay an "established closer" tax in order to attempt to placate the fans who think they are invaluable. I would have much preferred spending that $8 mil on someone that wasn't projected to have 46 IP.

[bucky20816]

Some Trevor stats:

 

He has given up 6 HRs in 9 innings (vs. 2 all last year). No other reliever in the majors has given up more than 2 except Dotel who has given up 3 -- one in the 17-3 game and the other two in games where he nonetheless got the save.

 

He has blown 4 saves. Dotel and 2 others have blown 2 and no one else in the majors has blown more than 1.

 

He's had 7 save opportunities and given up at least one run in 6 of them, including each of the last 5.

 

Fine to bring him in yesterday and it didn't even bother me too much today; he's got a lot of talent and a good track record so see what you have. But to keep using him they have to be able to take him out mid-inning if he is not effective. I know that is tough; I would not be surprised if it's been years since he got pulled in the middle of an inning. But it's one thing to blow a save and another to take the team wholly out of the game. Even today, if Edmonds gets in we still win and the Blown Save hurts a whole lot less.

 

Also, it seems like the Brewers have a tradition of relievers falling off a cliff. Someone mentioned "Irish Tom" Murphy in the 70s. Kolb and Turnbow also went from dominant to to ineffective very quickly. Not that this means Hoffman is done, but it's not without precedent and has to be considered.

 

 

edit-- changed BS to Blown Save, since that's what you meant--pitchleague

[monty57]

But to keep using him they have to be able to take him out mid-inning if he is not effective.

 

I feel the same way. It's obvious to everyone that Hoffman isn't himself right now. I know you can't burn your bullpen by always having someone warming up, but leaving Hoffman in to finish innings no matter what just seems silly. In yesterday's game, we could probably have gotten out of the inning in better shape than down 8-3 if Macha had brought someone else in tied 3-3 with runners on base.

 

That said, Macha's in a tough position right now. I'm not normally one to defend Macha, but what is he supposed to do now? Hoffman is as close to "bigger than the game" as it comes. If Macha moves him to middle relief and he doesn't get 600 saves, Macha looks like a jerk, and if he keeps throwing him out there and he personally kills the Brewers' season, Macha looks like an idiot. Which choice is less bad? Normally, I'd say "whatever is best for the team," which right now looks like it would be moving Hoffman to middle relief, but that would almost assuredly put Macha's name in the history books in a very bad light. Tough call.

[twobrewers]

I hear Turnbow is available?

[PKBadger]

That said, Macha's in a tough position right now. I'm not normally one to defend Macha, but what is he supposed to do now? Hoffman is as close to "bigger than the game" as it comes. If Macha moves him to middle relief and he doesn't get 600 saves, Macha looks like a jerk, and if he keeps throwing him out there and he personally kills the Brewers' season, Macha looks like an idiot. Which choice is less bad? Normally, I'd say "whatever is best for the team," which right now looks like it would be moving Hoffman to middle relief, but that would almost assuredly put Macha's name in the history books in a very bad light. Tough call.

The other problem there is, I'm not convinced that he'll be any more effective pitching the 7th inning than he has been pitching the 9th.

[bacon06]

Let's just throw Suppan out there to close. He can't be any worse, right? And we are paying him all that money anyway.

[hawing]

If Macha moves him to middle relief and he doesn't get 600 saves, Macha looks like a jerk, and if he keeps throwing him out there and he personally kills the Brewers' season, Macha looks like an idiot. Which choice is less bad? Normally, I'd say "whatever is best for the team," which right now looks like it would be moving Hoffman to middle relief, but that would almost assuredly put Macha's name in the history books in a very bad light. Tough call.

I get what you're saying, but why would any change in role have to be permanent? Lately, running Trevor out for the 9th is resembling Einstein's definition of insanity - doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. In an earlier inning, at least there is more of a chance for the team to rebound if he does continue to implode.

Right now is when it would be neat to be a mind reader so we could know what's going on in these guys' heads.

[jeffy]

Yes, put him in lower pressure situations until he shows he can be effective again. I'd start by putting him in a game when we are already losing or winning by a large margin, if that opportunity occurs in the next few days.

I thought Macha's latest comments were about right...basically saying it is a tough situation and he is not sure what he is going to do.

"How much rope is he going to get?" Macha said to reporters, rhetorically for the most part.

Asked to answer his own question, Macha replied, "I don't know the answer to that."

 

Changing closers means you have to have a viable Plan B, also. What would that be for the Brewers?

"That's another good question," said Macha, again with no answer.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/92373434.html

[Invader3K]

It seems like Macha already tried the low pressure situation with Hoffman, but putting him in that 20-0 blowout last week against the Pirates. Just saying, it isn't like he hasn't tried that yet.

[jeffy]

But was the 20-0 appearance not more just because he needed some work?

I meant to only use him in lower pressure situations for a while.

[JohnBriggs12]

Guess Keith Law was right. He ripped the Brewers for giving Hoffman an $8 mill deal. Said Hoffman was declining, and it sure looks as if he is/has.

Chone projected him for a 3.75 ERA before the season started. If he had done that over 50 IP, no way he's worth even close to $8 mil. That said, Hoffman is not an easy guy to project (not exactly like just about any other pitcher) and he had a great walk and strikeout rate. Even if he was closer to a 3.00 ERA reliever, he might be worth half of what he actually got.

 

Melvin, like so many other GMs, is willing to pay an "established closer" tax in order to attempt to placate the fans who think they are invaluable. I would have much preferred spending that $8 mil on someone that wasn't projected to have 46 IP.

Melvin's motivation is placating fans? Then why is Suppan still on the roster?

 

No, Melvin's made this mistake before. He did it when he signed Turnbow to a multi year deal, then watched him implode in 2006. He did it again in 2008 with Gagne after Cordero priced himself just out of his range. I don't think you can pit that on the fans. He got "lucky" when Hoffman had a bounceback last year, but that just set him up to overpay this year. Melvin's problem is the same with most FA he signs. He can't quite afford quality so he goes for guys past their prime, or 2nd and 3rd tier guys that aren't cheap but within his budget.. The reason he couldn't afford Cordero was because Cordero was actually a top tier closer in his prime. Brewers can't afford top tier guys. When it's the closer position, and that guy fails as less than top tier closers often do, it can jettison the season because it takes too long to replace guys you are paying a lot.

 

So what's the solution. In the short term, Hoffman needs to be taken out of the role. Sorry Trevor, you have to win it back. It's not like the Brewers don't have options to close. None are perfect, but a case could be made for Hawkins, Coffey, Villanueva and most certainly Braddock. If you try one of these guys and he doesn't work, try another until you find the one guy that can do a decent job. They replaced Gagne in May of 08 with a journeyman guy in Torres and still got to the playoffs. They have a Torres on their roster. They just have to find out who that is. Yeah it opens up spots that have to be filled in lesser roles, but that Nashville bullpen has more than one major league quality reliever on it.

 

In the long term, the Brewers need to focus on developing closers internally combined with looking for bargains elsewhere. That's one reason I'd leave Braddock in the pen. They may not have a premier name guy every year that way, but that way, it makes changing out guys who are failing a lot easier.

[monty57]

Good post, John. That's why I, along with many others on this site, were screaming to trade Hoffman, Cameron and others at last year's deadline. Someone would've paid well for Hoffman with the season he was having.

 

It is depressing at how few bullpen arms we've been able to bring up through the system, even for the middle reliever role. If you can't grow them yourself, you are going to have to put a lot of money into the bullpen by signing free agents. Braddock will be a great guy to have around for the next five years or so... imagine that, a good, young, cheap arm for the pen. Assuming he stays relatively healthy, we'll probably get a good haul for him in trade before he starts demanding an eight figure salary. After writing that, it's sad that before he even throws a MLB ptich, I'm already thinking about trading him in five years :-(

[HOF4canrake]

From what I've noticed, Hoffman's front shoulder is slightly more open (and a touch sooner) than last year. That would explain a lack of command with both his fastball and changeup so far. It's such a small detail, he may not feel it and the staff may not notice. I just looked at some video from last year and compared it to this season.

 

There's more details about it at Brewersmix.com if anyone is interested in a full explanation.

[Invader3K]

From what I've noticed, Hoffman's front shoulder is slightly more open (and a touch sooner) than last year. That would explain a lack of command with both his fastball and changeup so far. It's such a small detail, he may not feel it and the staff may not notice. I just looked at some video from last year and compared it to this season.

If that's true, it should be a correctable issue. I also am wondering why Peterson hasn't picked up on it yet.

[FVBrewerFan]

monty57 wrote:

That said, Macha's in a tough position right now. I'm not normally one to defend Macha, but what is he supposed to do now? Hoffman is as close to "bigger than the game" as it comes. If Macha moves him to middle relief and he doesn't get 600 saves, Macha looks like a jerk, and if he keeps throwing him out there and he personally kills the Brewers' season, Macha looks like an idiot. Which choice is less bad? Normally, I'd say "whatever is best for the team," which right now looks like it would be moving Hoffman to middle relief, but that would almost assuredly put Macha's name in the history books in a very bad light. Tough call.

I get what you're saying Monty, but I don't think Macha would take much heat for removing Hoffman from the closer role for a while. It's not like he's blown 2 or 3 saves over a 2 month period. Plus, it hasn't been a case of one or two seeing -eye singles. He has been absolutely rocked. Hoffman, being the pro's pro that he is, I'm sure would have Macha's back. Nobody is bigger than the game.

 

[HOF4canrake]

I'm not sure how Hoffman feels about Macha.

 

A friend of mine worked in the Brewers clubhouse last season and on more than one occasion, he said Hoffman and Kendall would get angry over the way Macha handled things.

Now usually it was off the field stuff (travel times, requirements, etc.), but there might have been more to it.

 

Maybe it's nothing - I don't know - but Macha has a tough decision to make if he continues to struggle.

[Flood Pants]

It really is sad seeing such a great player and surefire Hall of Famer implode so badly. I hope he gets it figured out, and can end his career on a good note with us. It really is a treat to have one of the game's all-time greats on our roster.

[TooLiveBrew]

It was great to see Hoffman back on his old form again tonight. Let's hope the command issues are a thing of the past.

[derflotr]

It's not like the league is gonna finally figure him out after 100000 years. It's not like his fastball's lost even more velocity. He's not about to mentally lose it - I'm really not all that concerned about him because the problem is probably mechanical. Let him work it out. Hoffman is the least of this team's concerns.

[Invader3K]

Well, he certainly looked pretty solid last night. Do people think he's turned a corner now? Maybe he just needed the first month of the season to figure things out?

 

It's probably going to take a couple more starts to make sure we have the "old" Hoffman back, but at least it's a step in the right direction.

[Ennder]

He is either going to locate his pitches or he is going to get hit around. There is no way to know which will happen. I don't think he suddenly lost it because of age though since his velocity is completely normal.

[PeaveyFury]

He seemed to be spotting his fastball better and was able to get the change over like normal. Hopefully its like 2008 where he started rough but got things straightened out.