Let's talk Hoffman

[WisconsinSportsRule]

How many changeups did he throw tonight? I saw 1 for sure, but wasn't paying keen attention.

 

The one he threw wasn't even close. Maybe he's not throwing it because he can't locate it?

 

Either way, this is devastating if we don't have a reliable closer.

[sheethead]

So Peterson doesn't talk to Hoffman about pitch selection? What does Rick talk about then when discussing all the HRs and runs Trevor is giving up.

 

Macha: "He is the all time saves leader, he knows what he is doing out there."

 

Yeah, he sure does know what he's doing. What he doesn't know is he's making me sick. This team is gonna suck big time this year if Melvin/Macha don't get some stones and make some tough decisions. Its clear we have two pitchers on this staff that are no longer effective, and another 37 year old pitcher who has blown up big twice. I'm not sure how much I can stomach before I start to reallocate my time to other outlets.

[rotoherb]

Hoffman gave up seven home runs over a 27 inning span in early 2008, so that part isn't unprecedented for him. The problem is that he struck out 30 over that span in 2008, while he's not missing as many bats this year. Balls in play is not a good thing when you throw 85 MPH.

[tigerbrew]

CV has a good changeup, but he also has a 90 MPH fastball to help setup his changeup. I think Trevor's luck has run out, 85 MPH fastballs probably aren't going to cut it anymore.

[sheethead]

I think Trevor's luck has run out, 85 MPH fastballs probably aren't going to cut it anymore.

 

Maybe he needs a song switch. Like Runnin' With the Devil or Highway to Hell or Hell is Home or

 

'HELL ain't a bad place to be' - AC/DC

'Come HELL or high water' - AC/DC

[Invader3K]

I'm not ready to say, "He's done", but there's something definitely wrong. When a changeup pitcher isn't throwing his changeup, something has to be going on. At any rate, we just can't keep coughing up wins in the 9th inning like this. We had a chance to be back at .500 last night, and Hoffman got crushed.

[Roscoe Chill]

He's the All Time Saves Leader! He can't be done. Suppan has started over 30 games forever, there's no way he got old fast (actually not that fast). This is starting to become a disturbing attitude trend for the Brewers brass. Yeah, I know Suppan was taken out of the rotation, but he should be taken off the team. How many more games is this team with a small margin for error to make the playoffs going to lose because the reality of the Hoffman situation is not accepted? We shall see. I like Hoffman, but it's not even close as far as him vs. hitters right now. It's not all that hard to believe that he done got old fast and just isn't able to do the job anymore. Sure, he might get it done here and there. Consistently? It's obvious to me that it's not going to happen. Unfortunate, but my gosh, accept the situation, deal with it, and move on. Macha's post game press conference was plain old bizarre last night. All this fluff about Rick Peterson means nothing to me after hearing one comment from Macha yesterday.

[JohnBriggs12]

CV has a good changeup, but he also has a 90 MPH fastball to help setup his changeup. I think Trevor's luck has run out, 85 MPH fastballs probably aren't going to cut it anymore.

CV's fastball is up 2 mph over last year. He's sitting at 90 consistently and has touched 92. That's what he was hitting when he first came up. Last year he was sitting at 88 and only rarely touching 90. That's helped set up his change and his underrated slider which he's commanding better this year too.

[FVBrewerFan]

Hoffman needs to be honest with Macha, and let him know if he's not able to command his change-up. It's not fair to the team if he knows he can only throw 85 MPH fastballs, he knows himself well enough to realize he can't get people out with that pitch alone. Seems like it's time for Trevor to come down with a mysterious back starin or something, and take a month or two to get right.

[bjkrautk]

Per Hoffman himself, the changeup is more of an out pitch than something to throw when he's behind in the count.

 

 

...has anyone tried looking into when / how he threw the change last year?

 

 

Last night, Hoffman fell behind to 6 of the 8 hitters he faced (that's giving Hoffman the benefit of a strike call against Clement, who grounded out on the first pitch).

 

2010 - 38 Batters Faced - 8 BIP on 0-0 count, 13 1-0 situations (Falling behind on 34.2% of batters faced), 4 @ 2-0 (10.5%), 17 @ 0-1

2009 - 191 BF - 30 @ 0-0, 66 @ 1-0 (34.5%), 22 @ 2-0 (11.5%), 95 @ 0-1

 

While not telling as to pitch selection, the raw numbers don't make it look like he's falling behind players any more than he did last year....which is what I had suspected (incorrectly) to have been the problem.

[brewmann04]

I totally agree all time save leader or not he has not looked good from his first apperance and the brewers need to do what best for the team cause they can't afford to throw away games.They have enough options to remove him from the closer role.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

At this point I can't see how they can send him out there to close games until he gets this figured out. I'd rather see him get a couple garbage innings where he locates and can use the change. Until then, they need to give someone else a shot...probably Hawkins or Coffey. I'm not convinced he's done. His velocity seems ok, but 86 down the middle against hitters sitting on the fastball won't get anyone out.

 

I also wonder if this could speed the end of Soup in Milwaukee. The main reason to keep him around is starter depth in case of injury or ineffectiveness. Given what happened last year that's not unreasonable to keep him around until they are completely comfortable with Narveson or Parra. Now they may need that depth in the pen. Soup blocking Stetter, Braddock or Axford isn't a big deal while the bullpen is cruising, but with the struggles they've had it may force an earlier move.

 

I really thought the bullpen was the biggest strength we had outside of our 3/4 hitters...it certainly hasn't been a strength so far in April.

[FVBrewerFan]

Well, at some point someone will have to be DFA'd. If Davis and Hoffman continue to struggle, you have 3 guys in the pen who you can't rely on and/or don't belong as a reliever to begin with. Especially when there are viable options to replace these guys.

 

I hope we can put the fastball velocity issue to rest. Even IF he was off 1-2 MPH, there really isn't a difference between an 85 and 87 MPH fastball. What made it effective in the past is his ability to locate it, and fool batters with it when they were looking for his change-up. Since he's not throwing his change, pretty much makes his fastball batting practice.

 

Finally, I don't believe being behind batters is the reason for not throwing the change. It's what's made Hoffman great. His willingness and ability to throw the change to any batter with any count.

[davemakovec]

Did anybody see this coming based on the high number of fly balls from last year? I certainly did not, but looking back at it, he seemed to give up a high percentage of fly balls.

If he can't keep getting hitters out, it might be time for him to retire. Call up Braddock or Stetter, and put anybody but Hawkins into the closer role.

[zzzmanwitz]

Line Drive, Ground Ball, Fly Ball %

 

2007 - 17.6%, 30.6%, 51.8%

2008 - 13.8%, 39.0%, 47.2%

2009 - 14.3%, 39.3%, 46.4%

2010 - 17.6%, 11.8%, 70.6%

Career - 20%, 33.6%, 46.4%

 

Hoffman will get better when his flyball rate lowers, but I still see cause for concern.

[TabbertBB]

All signs pointed that he should have been dealt before the trading deadline last year-- and he wasn't. And now we are paying again. I think I remember this tune.

[GormanHarvey]

I posted this in last nights IGT but I figured I would move it over to here-

 

I'm obviously concerned about Trevor, but I don't think it is hopeless. To me his stuff hasn't changed one bit - he's just not locating his fastball or getting ahead in the count. As he alluded to, its hard to get hitters to chase his change up out of the zone when he is behind in the count. He is no different than any other pitcher - he needs to get ahead to be successful. And when he starts getting ahead with well located fastballs he can get away from throwing so many fastballs and get back to throwing 30% change ups. His location and subsequently being behind is why he has already given up 5 HR's as compared to 2 all last year. Its not that he has all of a sudden forgotten how to pitch or his stuff has changed. I still think it was a bad idea to give him so little work in ST...

[trwi7]

...has anyone tried looking into when / how he threw the change last year?

Per Fangraphs.

 

2009 0-0 count - 67% FB, 16% SL, 3% CB, 13% CH

2010 0-0 count - 72% FB, 19% SL, 6% CB, 3% CH

 

2009 1-0 count - 75% FB, 8% SL, 1% CB, 15% CH

2010 1-0 count - 78% FB, 22% SL

 

2009 2-0 count - 96% FB, 4% SL

2010 2-0 count - 67% FB, 33% SL

 

2009 3-0 count - 100% FB

2010 3-0 count - Hasn't fallen behind 3-0 yet

 

2009 0-1 count - 17% FB, 18% SL, 6% CB, 59% CH

2010 0-1 count - 56% FB, 6% SL, 6% CB, 31% CH

 

2009 1-1 count - 48% FB, 13% SL, 2% CB, 37% CH

2010 1-1 count - 69% FB, 6% SL, 25% CH

 

2009 2-1 count - 69% FB, 6% SL, 25% CH

2010 2-1 count - 90% FB, 10% CH

 

2009 3-1 count - 74% FB, 26% CH

2010 3-1 count - 100% FB

 

2009 0-2 count - 42% FB, 9% SL, 49% CH

2010 0-2 count - 100% FB

 

2009 1-2 count - 41% FB, 6% SL, 53% CH

2010 1-2 count - 58% FB, 8% SL, 8% CB, 25% CH

 

2009 2-2 count - 41% FB, 12% SL, 4% CB, 43% CH

2010 2-2 count - 57% FB, 43% CH

 

2009 3-2 count - 81% FB, 3% SL, 16% CH

2010 3-2 count - 73% FB, 27% CH

[zzzmanwitz]

2009 0-2 count - 42% FB, 9% SL, 49% CH

2010 0-2 count - 100% FB

 

This stands out the most to me... but I really don't think we've had nearly enough ABs to put together any sort of theories.

[TabbertBB]

This year is a small "sample size".

Just thought I would throw out that term people love to use.

[Hammer]

Hoffman really needs to be taken out of the closers role. Hopefully he does it himself and retires very soon....

[BrewCrewForever]

Guess Keith Law was right. He ripped the Brewers for giving Hoffman an $8 mill deal. Said Hoffman was declining, and it sure looks as if he is/has.

[NormanBoobie]

From McCalvy's Twitter:

Macha

on Hoffman: "That’s two days in a row for him. Tomorrow, if we have a

chance to win it, perhaps it will be somebody else at the end.”

Now who gets the 9th?

[crewcrazy]

From McCalvy's Twitter:

Macha

on Hoffman: "That’s two days in a row for him. Tomorrow, if we have a

chance to win it, perhaps it will be somebody else at the end.”

Now who gets the 9th?

What would make sense: Coffey

What will probably happen: Hawkins

 

I wouldn't be opposed to a closer-by-committee strategy, but it's not something I'd trust Macha to do well.

[logan82]

Hoffman may not throw on 3 consecutive days anyway so I wouldn't read to much into it.

 

I wasn't opposed to signing Hoffman and am still not. I just thought they signed him to quickly and for to much money.