Let's talk Hoffman

[tigerbrew]

"Do you want me to get tarred and feathered?" Macha said yesterday, when asked if Hoffman will return to the closer's role soon.

[Funketown]

P.S. the cost to a team that has no hope is virtually negligible.

What do you base that sentiment on?

 

I think the club needs to do their best to finish the year with as good of a record as they can. Do you remember that season the Packers started 4-8 and then finished 4-0? I seem to remember the common fan saying "Yeah we were 8-8, but we finished 4-0 in our last four games". If this club can somehow claw their way back to .500 by the end of the season, I think you will see a lot of casual fans saying the same thing. "Sure, we sucked out of the gate, but once we got everything figured out, we looked like a pretty good team". If they don't, you'll see casual fans saying something along the lines of "We sucked last year, and we'll probably suck this year".

 

Marketing is important, but not nearly as important as the overall quality of the experience a fan gets when attending the ballpark or watching the game on TV. Fans like to see milestones, perfect games, 500 foot home runs, etc. I just don't think the average fan really cares about Hoffman's 600th, and comparing this to 3,000 hits or 500 homers (or 900 homers, for that matter) is like comparing apples and oranges. When all is said and done, 600 saves just doesn't mean that much to me, and I don't think it does to that many people anymore.

[TabbertBB]

Saves:

Nobody did 596 in history-- did we make a big deal about that?

[MJLiverock]

Finishing with a strong September in baseball when completely out of the race is different that football. In baseball teams bring up young guys, shut down some guys, and basically finish out the string. It is fine to get excited about seeing the young guys play well, but winning a bunch of games against other teams young guys or other bad teams who are just finishing the string won't get me too excited about the next season. I doubt a whole of expected wins for the next season are based on a strong/weak September rather than the body of work of the season and offseason acquistions/departures. If the Brewers win 75 games but have a winning September I doubt people are going to expect 90 wins the next year.

[TooLiveBrew]

And from a business standpoint, I don't think going from 70 to 75 wins is pointless. Fans largely determine how much they pay attention to the next season (and in turn, spend on that next season) based on how good they think the team will be next year. To the average fan, the number of games the team won the previous season is a significant factor in determining how good they think the team will be in the upcoming season.

 

I sincerely doubt that there are any fans out there that are going to be so much more impressed or so much more demoralized by 70 or 75 wins, or 75-80.

 

 

Maybe Hoffman's 600th is worth something (independent of team earnings) to Attanasio. That's not unreasonable to believe, as we've certainly owners who make decisions that are clearly utility maximizing, rather than profit maximizing. However, I think that the cost of letting Hoffman get that 600th save is quite large, and Attanasio will not be willing to lose that much revenue in order to enjoy watching Hoffman get #600 as a Brewer.

 

I don't think it's worth anything to the Brewers, and I don't think it's worth anything to Attanasio. I think it's worth something to Trevor Hoffman, and as a guy that will be in the Hall of Fame, I think the Brewers should help him get to that round number he wants. Like I said, if I felt this infringed in any way on the Brewers, I would think it completely asinine. Since I don't think there's anything to lose, I'd like to see the Brewers help a HoF guy attain a goal he wants. All the important and/or younger arms in the 'pen will still have plenty of opportunities to work. Like I mentioned earlier, I'd run the guy out there for 3-run save opportunities until he gets those next four saves & then just stop worrying about how or when Hoffman is used entirely.

[Funketown]

I don't think it's worth anything to the Brewers, and I don't think it's worth anything to Attanasio. I think it's worth something to Trevor Hoffman, and as a guy that will be in the Hall of Fame, I think the Brewers should help him get to that round number he wants. Like I said, if I felt this infringed in any way on the Brewers, I would think it completely asinine. Since I don't think there's anything to lose, I'd like to see the Brewers help a HoF guy attain a goal he wants. All the important and/or younger arms in the 'pen will still have plenty of opportunities to work. Like I mentioned earlier, I'd run the guy out there for 3-run save opportunities until he gets those next four saves & then just stop worrying about how or when Hoffman is used entirely.

I guess I just don't feel like the Brewers necessarily owe it to Hoffman to let him do that. If it's not worth anything to the Brewers or Attanasio, why should they? They gave him the opportunity to reach 600 saves, but he has performed miserably. If he really wants it, I'm sure someone would be willing to sign him to a minor league deal this offseason.

 

If a player reaches a milestone like this solely because a team keeps throwing him out there even though he is not their best option to win, is this milestone even worth anything?

 

And as for the notion that going from 70 to 75 wins does not have value to an organization, I'd rather not crunch the numbers on this (as predicting revenue in professional sports is a mess), but I'm sure that if you asked any owners if they thought they'd sell more tickets in the upcoming season, holding all other things constant, after a 70 win season or a 75 win season, they would answer that they would sell more tickets after the 75 win season.

[sheethead]

Not to mention it could cost the Brewers MORE MONEY to let him get that milestone nobody really cares about.

 

According to Cots:

 

1 year/$8M (2010), plus 2011 club option

* signed extension with Milwaukee 10/5/09

* 10:$7.5M, 11:$7M mutual option ($0.5M buyout)

* price of 2011 option may increase based on GF in 2010:

o $7.5M ($0.75M buyout) with 35 GF

o $7.75M ($1M buyout) with 40 GF

[TooLiveBrew]

Imo he would need 12 games at most to get the 4 saves (I'm continuing to imagine only using him in 3-run save opportunities). Simple answer to your concern is to not have him finish any more games after that. There is no way he'd need 22 games finished to get 4 saves (plus, if he blows the save, he probably wouldn't finish the game anyway). I say 22 because he is currently at 13 games finished.

 

Anyway, this line of conversation is really irrelevant unless Macha does a big about-face in terms of Hoffman's usage.

[TooLiveBrew]

Loved to see Hoffman used in the 3-run save opportunity tonight. Kudos to Macha, even though I'm pretty sure it was probably about giving Axford some rest.

 

It was great to see the fans get so electric & support Trevor, too.

[derflotr]

I think now that Axford has pretty much solidified himself as closer for the near future why not get Hoffman to 600? It'll at least give me a concrete reason to turn the Brewers on. I'll be watching anyway, but the point is that the rest of the season is just mud - give it a purpose. I'm not big on milestones but if the guy wants 600 let's give him the chance. He's busted it ever since he put on a Brewers uniform and he's been an absolute class act no matter the results. Whether he gets to 600 or not won't change anyone's opinion of him but it'll be the best moment of the Brewers' season if he does, I would think. I'm glad Macha's giving him the chance to do it.

[logan82]

During those meetings, Hoffman had broached the possibility – if Macha

felt comfortable with it – of getting some save opportunities with

three-run leads, leaving room to summon Axford if things started to go

awry.

Sounds like a good plan to me. Kind of thought they would do this at some point.

[chadomac]

I don't mind Hoffman closing out some games, either. Especially because Axford is a rookie and this really isn't going to screw him over in any way. It's not like he's close to free agency and having 5 less saves is going to make his numbers look bad and therefore he won't get as good of a contract. He's got time to rack up numbers.

[1992casey]

I'm a fan of having more than one pitcher picking up saves, choosing relievers based on the game situation more than having their roles defined by which inning it is, and having guys pitch more than one inning when finishing games (when appropriate). That's how things were done before LaRussa and Eckersley redefined the end-of-game role. Based on my biases, it's easy for me to like Hoffman closing out some games.

[RockCoCougars]

In the past, I have been irate with the manager 'tweaking' in similar cases such as Suppan getting his 30th (undeserved) start last year, and Jose K cowardly sitting down to avoid his rightful place in history as the Strikeout King. In this case, I don't have a problem with Hoffman getting to 600 saves. Unlike the other two examples he's a class act, and he has also earned the right to his milestone by stepping up and pitching well enough over the past few months to close. If the 600 save mark is the difference in him making or missing Cooperstown, I say get him there.

[igor67]

Just a thought, but somewhat more cynically getting Hoffman to 600 might make it easier to trade him before the end of August. With the milestone out of the way and without having to be "the guy" he'd look pretty nice as a last minute bullpen guy for a contending team.

[TooLiveBrew]

And if that contending team were the Padres, it would be the ultimate feel-good story.

[jeffy]

The fans absolutely loved it and Hoffman is okay with getting yanked if he sucks, so seems like a good idea to let him go for the 3 run saves.

 

One advantage is that if the team scores while he is warming up, he can still come in and finish the game. If Axford is warming up, due to the mindless rules of closer usage, he might have to sit down and let some one else warm up when it becomes a non-save situation.

[djoctagone]

was it truly macha's intention to put hoffman in to the game in which he saved number 600? he had been ejected, and willie randolph took over managing duties.

 

had macha not been watching the game from his office, would he have removed axford from the game and brought in hoffman with only a two run lead?

 

if macha truly felt he wouldn't have given the ball to hoffman, he'll certainly never admit it.

 

i'm just curious about the brain trust behind the pitching move.

[TooLiveBrew]

Macha was managing from the tunnel, like basically every ejected MLB manager does. Iirc BA & Rock were talking about that during last night's broadcast.

[jeffy]

The commemorative bat that is being advertised seems like a very peculiar way to mark 600 saves for Hoffman.

 

I don't know, can I get a Hank Aaron 715th HR commemorative pitching rubber with that? http://www.ezboard.com/in...ges/emoticons/ohwell.gif

[Invader3K]

jeffy, I was remarking about the same thing to my dad last night. Seems like a baseball or glove would have been more appropriate.

[hawing]

I knew you guys weren't making this up, but I had to see it for myself anyway: Link to product page

 

I like Trevor and am delighted by his accomplishment, but I don't feel motivated to get any of the commemorative merchandise so far (t-shirt or certainly this bat). And my lack of motivation is not Doug Melvinesque doublespeak that means I'm actually about to order either item. Maybe a pin or something.