Let's talk Hoffman

[TheCrew07]

I think the point here that can't be emphasized enough is what poor value relievers are, even when effective they pitch too few innings to warrant near double digit or double digit million salaries for a season. When you factor age into the equation, the risk is even greater. I felt bad calling Hoffman and Hawkins "oldies" in the off season, and I let one of those slip in regard to Hawkins earlier this season, but I'm incredibly frustrated with Melvin and his band aid approach to roster management with the pitching. I'm tired of spending money in the least best possible way which is the bullpen, and I'm tired of wasting money in the next worst way spending it on average starting pitchers in their Mid 30s with obviously declining skills. I would much rather our highest paid players were our core youth, than has been types from the FA market. This same pattern keeps repeating itself and each time around I get progressively more pissed off at Melvin and inevitably I vent in the direction of the players as well.

 

It's a recipe to be averagish forever. Teams can out perform their hitting, but they don't out perform their pitching. Shouldn't the Brewers having a payroll near the team record to be below .500 for 2 seasons be evidence enough of how poorly the money has been spent? Personally speaking I didn't want Hoffman prior to 2009 and I certainly didn't want to give a raise in base salary to a 42 year old relief pitcher for 2010. It's not that people who shared a similar opinion to myself were looking into the future and predicting failure, it had much more to do with the way the whole thing went down and the poor value relievers are in general.

 

Is Hoffman done? That very well could be the case, he's in uncharted territory results wise, once again fastball velocity is not a smoking gun in any way. Velocity differentials are more important, but more importantly any pitcher's most important advantage is that he gets to dictate pitch type and location. If he's giving that advantage away by becoming predictable, he's going to get hit and get hit hard. It's very difficult to get a away with a mistake in location when the hitter is looking for that pitch type. The number I heard thrown around relative to velocity separation was 13 MPH, Trevor hasn't had that since the data became available so I don't think you'll find a smoking gun there either. It looks to me like hitters are just sitting FB on him now and for whatever reason are able to distinguish the CU and are get wood on it instead of swinging through it like in the past, he could be tipping his pitches, it could be his release point is different, it could be many things... but trying using his FB velocity and results last as an indicator of future success seems incredibly dismissive of what's actually happening in the field of play.

 

He's given up 19 ER prior to June, he hasn't given up more than 24 runs in any single season since he was rookie and gave up 39 in 90 IP. What are the odds that he only gives up 5 more earned runs this season? He's already given up 8 more runs than he did all of last season.

[joepepsi]

So, can we sign Schmoe? Is he available? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

Unfortunately Alfredo Simon signed a league minimum deal with the Orioles last December.

http://www.baseball-refer...layers/s/simonal01.shtml

[TooLiveBrew]

They also need to dump at least one more reliever, either Vargas or Suppan, to create two more spots in the pen for Braddock and Smith.

I would much rather have Vargas than Smith. Smith is not someone that I want to see on the 25-man roster.

[brewmann04]

I think Hoffmann should step aside as the brewer closer and admit he does not have it.

[Fatter than Joey]

While that is probably true for an outing or two, I just can't fathom it over an entire month or more, especially with the results he's been getting on the field. If he was mediocre or just a little off, I could buy them overlooking something, but he's been just terrible.

 

Agreed - I don't get the sense that Hoffman is injured -- I think he is toast.

[trwi7]

I would much rather have Vargas than Smith. Smith is not someone that I want to see on the 25-man roster.

 

I'd actually like to see Dillard. He's getting ground balls, he's striking out almost a batter per 9 innings and he's walking less than 1 per 9.

[logan82]

I really don't have a problem with Hoffman being signed either. I have a problem with how much and how soon they signed him. I really don't have much problem with the Hawkins signing. He was ok and got hurt. We are not paying him enough for me to get to excited about.

[Gobias Industries]

I'd actually like to see Dillard. He's getting ground balls, he's striking out almost a batter per 9 innings and he's walking less than 1 per 9.

Same here. I've always been impressed with Dillard the reliever, and it seems he's figured out how to miss more bats. Guys that throw in the mid to low 90s with heavy sink are the types I DREAD seeing us face. It would be nice to have some of our own for a change.

[JohnBriggs12]

They also need to dump at least one more reliever, either Vargas or Suppan, to create two more spots in the pen for Braddock and Smith.

Smith may end up being a short term fix but I'm not sure if he is much of a long term solution given his 17 home runs allowed in 64 career ML innings. His 4.11 ERA was fortunate if you ask me (without looking at any advanced metrics).

 

He may be better than some of what we've currently got (and I realize that is the topic at hand here) but if we are ever going to build a decent bullpen, Chris Smith needs to be behind a wall of glass labeled 'Break In Case of Emergency' instead of being a key cog.

Smith's BAA last year was .232. His OBP against was .317. His K rate per 9 innings was respectable at 6.8. He's definitely a flyball pitcher much like Dave Bush, and that's dangerous in late inning relief, but in his first 32 outings last year his ERA was 3.07. So he can get major league hitters out and he's got 13 saves in AAA already despite allowing 3 HR in14 2/3 innings. In those 14 2/3 innings, he's also tallied 20 K's. By contrast to the garbage we've seen out of Vargas, Hoffman etc, this year, Smith's 2009 numbers look sparkling.

[TooLiveBrew]

His BABIP was .229 & his LOB% was 88.2%. Those numbers are completely unsustainable, and point to how lucky Smith got in '09. He's not someone for whom the Brewers should make any moves to clear room. He's completely replaceable. Like trwi7 mentioned, Dillard is a much better choice.

[Invader3K]

Retirement doesn't sound to be imminent.

But when faced head-on with a question like, "Is this the end?"

Hoffman's answer is a resounding no. He said Wednesday afternoon that he

still wants the ball in the ninth inning.

"If

it was something other than the fact I was getting my head beat in, I

would worry," Hoffman said. "But there isn't a whole lot that has

changed. My mechanics are the same. Stuff-wise, it's been a little

inconsistent as far as pitches are concerned. But it's not as if I was

throwing 90 [mph] last year and I'm throwing 80 this year. I'm a mid-80s

guy. The change-up has been mid- to low-70s. Not much is off in those

numbers.

"I'm worried, don't get me wrong. Or,

frustrated, that's the better word. 'Worried' makes it sound like

you're just hoping to get people out. No, you have to prepare, and I'm

doing that. There's frustration because something is not going right.

"Am

I tipping my pitches? Has it finally caught up that I'm 42? I don't

know. It's something that's out of my control."

 

Edit: Haudricourt just tweeted that Hoffman, Macha, and Peterson all just met to discuss the closer situation, so I imagine we'll hear more later today.

[sheethead]

Wow, now I'm actually starting to not like the guy. What a shame. If this was NY, there would be a bounty out for his head.

[PeaveyFury]

Wow, now I'm actually starting to not like the guy.

 

Starting? Haven't you been calling him 'done' since his second blown save?

[TooLiveBrew]

"He has to win ballgames, and I'm putting him in a tough spot," Hoffman said. "It takes the wins out the club's sail, and I'm sure there's been a hangover effect after some of the [blown saves]. ... Everybody has been grinding for the last week in a half. Hitters have been grinding at-bats. Pitchers have been working their tails off in the rotation and trying to pass that through the bullpen. You finally put it together as a game [on Tuesday] and to let it get away, that's pretty frustrating."

That's from the McCalvey blog entry Invader posted. Fitting typo.

[sheethead]

Claiming he is toast and not liking the guy are mutually exclusive.

[naivin]

But when faced head-on with a question like, "Is this the end?"

Hoffman's answer is a resounding no. He said Wednesday afternoon that he

still wants the ball in the ninth inning.

"If

it was something other than the fact I was getting my head beat in, I

would worry," Hoffman said. "But there isn't a whole lot that has

changed. My mechanics are the same. Stuff-wise, it's been a little

inconsistent as far as pitches are concerned. But it's not as if I was

throwing 90 [mph] last year and I'm throwing 80 this year. I'm a mid-80s

guy. The change-up has been mid- to low-70s. Not much is off in those

numbers.

"I'm worried, don't get me wrong. Or,

frustrated, that's the better word. 'Worried' makes it sound like

you're just hoping to get people out. No, you have to prepare, and I'm

doing that. There's frustration because something is not going right.

"Am

I tipping my pitches? Has it finally caught up that I'm 42? I don't

know. It's something that's out of my control."

This is pretty much what I was trying to get at earlier, and it appears Trevor agrees. Its just not adding up for me. Is 42 really that different from 41? What has changed between last September and this April? While not completely dominant, he obviously was perfectly fine last year, and suddenly he can't get anyone out. I don't know. I just find it strange that his ability is gone, just like that.

[joepepsi]

Wow, now I'm actually starting to not like the guy. What a shame. If this was NY, there would be a bounty out for his head.

I'm don't understand. Basically the guy said he doesn't know what's wrong, he feels fine, his mechanics are good, and he wants the ball in the 9th. In the quote from McCalvey's blog he admits his failures are hard on the team. So, you are starting to not like the guy because of these comments?

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't find it starnge, it happens all the time. And age isn't always the culprit, but it can be. Anyone remember Gagne? Wasn't that long ago. Turnbow? Happens with hitters too. Very solid, and then one year they fall off the map completely and may never get it back. Andrew Jones? (He was young enough to get a 2nd chance at least) I'm sure if we all took the time we could name closers, starting pitchers, and hitters who were very good, and fell off completely.

[derflotr]

Claiming he is toast and not liking the guy are mutually exclusive.

It really isn't. Unless you don't view baseball players as humans.

[sheethead]

He said Wednesday afternoon that he still wants the ball in the ninth inning.

 

"If it was something other than the fact I was getting my head beat in, I would worry,"

 

Its these two comments that ate at me. He comes across as selfish to me. I can see how he just doesn't get it, since its all that he knows and would just love to do it forever. But he's gotta come to grip with reality, he is the worst relief pitcher in the league this year. Worst. Pitcher. Worst pitchers in the league don't get to have the ball in the ninth inning.

[sheethead]

It really isn't. Unless you don't view baseball players as humans.

 

So realizing someone cannot do their job anymore translates directly into not liking that person. Sounds rather fragile of a translation.

[naivin]

I don't find it starnge, it happens all the time. And age isn't always the culprit, but it can be. Anyone remember Gagne? Wasn't that long ago. Turnbow? Happens with hitters too. Very solid, and then one year they fall off the map completely and may never get it back. Andrew Jones? (He was young enough to get a 2nd chance at least) I'm sure if we all took the time we could name closers, starting pitchers, and hitters who were very good, and fell off completely.

And in the chemical era of baseball, you can typically come up with the specific reason very easily...particularly with the guys you mention, along with plenty of others. I don't think anyone would argue that PEDs (or lack thereof) are in play in Hoffman's case, as they were with the others you mention (Jones may have simply gotten fat and slow, but that is obviously a change that would lead to a decrease in production. There is no such evidence of anything like that with Hoffman.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I remember halfway through 1990 when the wheels came off for Dan Plesac. The guy went from dominant to blowing saves seemingly overnight. He wound up resurrecting his career for over a decade as a decent set-up guy, but he wasn't the same as he was for a few years in the late-90s. He was awesome.

 

The thing that's weird about Hoffman is his velocity is fine and he's not a power pitcher. These other relievers just lose it and it's obvious because their fastball drops a few mph or they blow their arm out. Maybe he is just old. It's not like there is a history of many dominant 42 year old pitchers out there so they all lose it at some point.

 

I don't find anything to hate personally about the guy. He's like all professional athletes. He's competitive and he's got an ego...they have to, especially a guy pitching the ninth inning. It's up to Macha at this point...he'd be crazy to put him out there right now. Hoffman has to earn that spot back or make way for the next guy.

[naivin]

Mariano Rivera a couple years ago comes to mind as well. I seem to recall he had an ERA solidly in double digits into May. The talk at that time seemed to be that he was done. Obviously the reports of his untimely demise were premature. He is/was obviously a bit younger, so I am not necessarily claiming the situations are the same, but I am having a hard time just closing the book when the only obvious change is hitters pounding him, with no real explanation, other than the theory that his age has caught up with him. Probably wishful thinking on my part, but I'm just not ready to sign off on the age argument.

[sheethead]

I never used the word hate, just in case someone wants to infer I have.